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I doubt it
With the success it has had to date, I strongly doubt that Bellicum would be willing to sell any more of their company at the "insider price". I am sure that the IPO PPS, will be a hefty multiple of the price the insiders and VC'S paid for their position.
As usual, JMHO
Barry
Bellicum and 2012
The closer they get to a Phase111 trial, the closer they will be to an IPO, and I think 2012 is the year both will happen.
Happy Chanukah, Merry Christmas, Happy Kwanza, and for the Seinfeld fans "Happy Festifus for the Rest of US"
Like many of my fellow posters, I am looking forward to 2012, the year that Ariad finally ARRIVES and the transformation from a Drug Development Company to a Cancer Pharmaceutical Company, is completed.
Ariad will make a difference in the lives of cancer patients all over the world, who are suffering from hard to treat cancers.
JMHO
Barry
Exercising the over allotment shares
It was a very easy call to exercise all the over allotment shares. Just sell the 3.2 million shares short today (at prices ranging between 10.78 and 11.23) and cover with the shares you buy on Tuesday @ 10.42 a share, Not a difficult decision to make at all.
Barry
Don, My sentiments exactly
You practically took the words out of my mouth. I just can't believe that HB has not learned from the past several dilutions. STOP bullshitting the shareholders, shoot from the hip. Doesn't he realize that we know the company needs money, and there is basically only two avenues...partner or dilution. Harvey, your not going to shock us by saying a dilutionj is a distinct possibility.
That being said, I agree with the strategy and would rather a 10 to 15% dilution vs giving up 50% or more of the European market and even maybe the Asian market, though I still believe he will partner in Asia as I truly believe that an Asian Pharma can do a much better job of selling Pona in Asia, than Harvey.
I also would like to remind my fellow investors that much of the discussion about dilution , being said now and in the past week or so, is the same as we heard prior to and when the last two dilutions were announced. Keep in mind though, that after each of the past several dilutions, the PPS rose substantially.
I now know why the investor conference was set up and conducted so quickly, within hours of announcing Pona results. I think Harvey thought that with the CML heavyweight that he hired, he would be able to push the PPS up for the dilution. I guess Harvey didn't realize how well the sell on the news theory actually works, and how much selling there would be from people that knew of the financing. Welcome to wall street Harvey, it is quite different than Cambridge.
As usual, JMHO
Barry
"Drugs that block signal
transduction pathways in cells responsible for osteoporosis and immune and inflammatory diseases"
Can someone please tell me what Ariad drugs Perceptive Advisors are referring to?
Are they talking about AP1903 and the other cell regulation drugs that Ariad developed back when?
Barry
My personal preference is to float 10 million shares, but HB, based upon his recent comments, seems to be leaning towards partnering.
In either event, we will know for sure in the next 90 days or so.
Another advantage of partnering Pona in Europe and or Asia, is that with someone selling Pona for us in Europe and Asia and Merck and Aria
selling Rida and Ariad selling Pona in the USA, Ariad should gain valuable selling experience to draw up if "113" turns out to be as valuable a drug as many here believe it will be. Then we will have the drug the sales force the experience and the money to operate, sans partners, with "113".
As usual, JMHO
It's beginning to look a lot like ....... partnering
I haven't confirmed it yet, but if HB actually said that a decision on partnering Europe will be made in the first quarter of 2012, and
Based upon what he has recently been saying about addtional financing, and
Given the fact that an Asian trial has not, and will not be commenced until next year.
It not only is beginning to look a lot like christmas but also beginning to look like we will have a European partner in Ponatinib, in the next few months.
I further suspect that the upfront payment will be somewhere in the neighborhood of $150,000,000, which will probably enable Ariad to continue with all the planned trials and hold us over until sales come rolling in, without any further dillution.
As usual this is JMHO
Barry
Poster Boy
We have Carolyn Boone for Ridaforolimus
We have Jerry Mayfield for Ponatinib
Has anyone found the Poster Boy (Gal) for "113" yet?????
Barry
Ariad is up
Ariad is presently trading up by 11.21% in Germany
Barry
Did you mean to say "European partner". I thought he said that about an "Asian partner"
Asian Partner
I still think an Asian partner is not only a possibility but a probability. If you believe his "no financing " comments and take into consideration the new Asian 100 patient trial scheduled for next year, then it is obvious that he plans to ink a deal for Asia.
As he alluded to in his last conference, initiating an Asian trial can only add to the value of a Pona partnership. I think he intends to maximize the value before letting out part of the market (Asia). We clearly do not have the cash to complete Pace, go forward on 113 and take on this Asian trial, not to mention the start of a head to head against Gleevec. In fact, with all that on the plate, unless HB believes that Rida will sell enough to trigger the 200 Million Milestone for reaching a sales level (and if he does, he is probably the only person that believes that) we will probably need both, an Asian partner and another dilution.
JMHO
Barry
Significant?
Would one of the scientists on the board, who has looked at this Patent, please comment on whether, or not, it looks significant?
Does it look like it can break any new ground?
Thank you in advance,
Barry
Last Year
Does anyone remember the post# of last year's pps prediction for December 31 2011? Would be nice to see how close we were to the actual when New Years arrives.
If you find it, please post it.
Barry
Dew
Do you disagree that there are approximately 50,000 patients on TKI'S annually? And if you agree, what % of that market do you think Pona will capture?
Peter stated that "about 1/3 of patients fail Gleevac", I took that to mean that 1/3 of all patients fail and I may have over estimated that fact. What % of the patients do you believe fail annually, either by intolerance or a mutation?
What do you believe to be the dollar value of Pona's initial penetration into the market?
Barry
Lets look at the numbers
Peter
Thanks for a very informative post. I must, however, take exception to your projection that Pona's initial run rate (out of the gate) will be >50M. Please consider the following:
1- The CML market for the three TKI'S is approximately 3.5B annually.
2- At a cost of about $70,000, per patient, per year, this means that the market is about 50,000 patients annually, worldwide.
3- If Ariad does 50M initially, this equates to about 700 patients (700 x $70,000)
4- 700 patients would mean that Pona captures only 1.4% of the market ( 70 divided by 50,000 ).
5- With approximately 1/3 of all patients mutating or otherwise becoming intolerant annually, and with a pent up demand over the last few (most recent) years, I find it hard to believe that only 700 patients will need, and or change over to Pona.
6- The best indication of the size of the "pent up demand" can be inferred by the speed in which rhe Pace Phase 11 filled 450 spots, especially considering the stringent criteria set for the inclusion into the study.
In conclusion, I believe that the size of Pona's initial market will surprise many.
LMHO,
Barry
Re: Today's announcement
When last we visited some very initial results of the Pona Phase 11 with the release of the ASH Abstract, the results were compiled with data as of July 18th and only gave us information on 3 months worth of treatment. We are now 4 months further along in the data, and Harvey did tell us that at ASH the reported results will be updated to include 6 months worth of treatment. I am fairly certain that, as of today, Ariad has compiled the results of 6 months of treatment and knows what will be presented at ASH on December 11th.
With that as a backdrop, I find it interesting that not only does Ariad announce today (which Harvey has already revealed) that the initial findings will be presented by Dr. Cortes on December 11th, but also gives us some detail about the planned Investor meeting & webcast to be held on Monday December 12th, at between 10AM and 11AM (while the market is open) I wonder what the take is on scheduling this investor meeting. Is it to?
a) Brag about the results?
b) TO attempt to sugar coat what might be otherwise conceived as less than stellar results?
c) Designed to embellish upon the results to help push the pps, for an expected dilution?
d) Announce something about the trial or drug, that is unexpected?
What's say ye?
Barry
Peter:
Aside from 3rd line, don't you think that if the final Phase 11 results are fairly consistant with the final results of Phase 1, that almost every patient who is still alive with the T315i mutation will be put on Ponatinib as soon as it is approved by the FDA? I would assume that when Ponatinib is approved, the initial sales figures will be larger than most people and analysts are expecting, especially if they are only looking at Ponatinib as merely a 3rd line drug.
JMHO
Barry
oops Your right, sorry for my misread
They may
And if the volume stays low from now to Friday, the Option Writers may even bring us down below 10 so that they can also reap the benefits on the 5,000+ November 10 options they wrote.
JMHO
Barry
Today's Action
I believe that the "Option Writers" , are taking advantage of a very light trading volume day, to keep the price below 11 so that they can retain a good portion (if not all) of the money they reaped by writing 92,213 (options on 9,213,000 shares) November 10 options. If I am right, we will not see 11 again this week because the November options do not expire until 4pm on Friday.
JMHO
Barry
Re: The non-Ariad sponsored abstracts at ASH
I any of the scientists on board has had the time to read the 22, or so, non-Ariad sponsored ASH abstracts, would he or she, be kind enough to enlighten the rest of us as to the important favorable and unfavorable findings contained therein?
Many thanks in advance
Barry
Thanks Don
Anyone know where the ASH abstracts are?
Of course, the rest is history. While they were waiting for the science to progress to utilize AP1903, their wonderful lab started producing cancer molecules, and this changed the direction of the company from a gene regulating company to an oncloogy company and they eventually licensed the technology to Bellicum, who I believe is headed by a Dr. who was originally with Ariad, or at least associated with them.
Here is what happened with AP1903
I have been an investor of Ariad since 1994. Regarding what happened with AP1903, this is what happened.
When Ariad first developed AP1903, we were told that they intended to use it for GVHD. Ariad then proceeded to enter a Phase 1 and when it was finished they reported that the drug was very safe and that they were in the process of planning a Phase 11. Months went by, with no announcement of a Phase 11, but Harvey kept saying that they were planning a Phase 11. I believe that it was about a year and a half, or so, after the announcement of Phase 1 results, that Harvey, in response to a question at a conference, admitted that they were not going to do Phase 11 yet, because the then existing science had not progressed enough to take advantage of the ability of AP1903 to regulate genes.
That is my best recollection
Barry
I agree with you 100% Lax.
That being said, allow me to put a smile on Researcher's face and give him the fodder to have pleasant dreams tonight, by informing him that Ariad will report (tomorrow morning) a profit for the 3rd quarter. The profit will come about by reporting the 25M milestone and the re-evaluation of the warrants, which will be a plus this quarter vs a minus the last quarter.
Barry
It even gets better than that.
You failed to add in the 25 Million milestone received in Q3 from Merck.
Barry
Abstracts
Does anyone know when the ASH abstracts will become available?
Barry
Please ponder this for a while
"Since the last data update from the trial was presented on December, 2010, all chronic-phase patients who achieved a MCyR remain in response with no signs of resistance"
I guess this sums up the efficafacy and durability of Ponatinib.
Bring on Gleevec
AS usual, JMHO
Barry
Re: Tomorrow's Reporting
Does anyone know the site that we can go to, to read the Pona Results being reported tomorrow morning (I believe it is being reported at about 5AM Eastern Standard Time) in Portugal?
Thanks in advance, Barry
Portugal Conference
Does anyone know whether or not the abstracts for the Portugal Conference are posted on the web (presently)?
Barry
Very funny, AJ
It may even be someone closing a short sale ot 3000 options
September 23rd to be exact
"113" Clinical Trial
I don't recall in which analyst's report I saw this, but one of them said the "113" trial will commence on September 1st. If he was correct then we are about one week away.
Barry
Yes 2012
Based upon Management's statement that we may be selling two drugs next year, an NDA must be filed by no later than mid year.
My opinion, however, and based upon full enrollment by the end of this month, is that an NDA will probably be filed in the first quarter of 2011, which would make it 18 months after the start of the trial.
JMHO, Barry
The Process
Now that a Rida NDA has been filed with the FDA, can one of the Science people on the board provide responses to the following?
1- Does the 6 month accelerated process period start now? or after the 60 day period to accept the NDA?
2= Please list the processes, and approximate time periods, that the application will go through during this review period.
Many thanks for any response
Barry
Welcome aboard Smitty
While I am in agreement with most of your post, I do not believe that we will have to wait for ASCO 2012 to see a new Ariad compound.
As you were probably not reading our mesage board at the time, several months ago, and at a time when the company's time frame for full enrollment in the Pona trial was still year end 2011, I correctly predicted that we will be fully enrolled by no later than 9/1/11.
I now predict that before 12/31/11, we will see:
1- A new compound
2- An Asian partnership
3- Start of a phase 111 for Rida in Breast Cancer
4- A major article about Ariad in either Forbes, Barrons, The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal.
As usual, JMHO
Barry
Accordingly, and while I generally agree with the PPS you envision between now and next July, your prices may even be a bit on the conservative side.
Thanks Don
You just started my day with a hardy laugh. What a great line.
Barry