Lets look at the numbers
Peter
Thanks for a very informative post. I must, however, take exception to your projection that Pona's initial run rate (out of the gate) will be >50M. Please consider the following:
1- The CML market for the three TKI'S is approximately 3.5B annually.
2- At a cost of about $70,000, per patient, per year, this means that the market is about 50,000 patients annually, worldwide.
3- If Ariad does 50M initially, this equates to about 700 patients (700 x $70,000)
4- 700 patients would mean that Pona captures only 1.4% of the market ( 70 divided by 50,000 ).
5- With approximately 1/3 of all patients mutating or otherwise becoming intolerant annually, and with a pent up demand over the last few (most recent) years, I find it hard to believe that only 700 patients will need, and or change over to Pona.
6- The best indication of the size of the "pent up demand" can be inferred by the speed in which rhe Pace Phase 11 filled 450 spots, especially considering the stringent criteria set for the inclusion into the study.
In conclusion, I believe that the size of Pona's initial market will surprise many.
LMHO,
Barry
