Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Have you explored your ideas on shorting using the set up....usually lot of professional traders try to risk less or stay in cash during corrections i was thinking to buy puts with small risk using the set up....buying even 1 spy 425 put would have made 3.5k.....spy went from 425 to 390 and still going....
So far your 60 min set up buy on first pivot break above and sell on first pivot below is the most simple and best set up i have seen.
Yes...15 min 3rd wave took it 45 points higher.....may be still 4th wave on 1 hr chart.
Learning to read waves. I thought wave 4 on 1 hr and wave 3 on 15 mins. what time frame were you looking?
In the past there was one Jackson hole meeting where fed chair announced paused in interest hikes....could not find the past news links. in 2018 jpow announced pause, in new york economic club talk....
spy..Finally the gap filled at 411.72
break 422.5 we might have a runner here...
Looks like trend changed today as per your charts. daily, hourly as well...
Yes.breadth is very bad. just like how it didn't go down for past month stubbornly now it's ugly on downside.....
Trading in tight range from 10 am...
One of your posts yesterday said there was no excess high. wonder tomorrow might be big gap up above 431.5 and make that excess high and sell off.
basil buys? Is he on youtube?
Everyone was way off from the actual numbers came. lol...
Now i see difference. I was drawing from March and May lows and yours is January and February lows. your lines touch may lows as well....yours might be more accurate.....
I don't see huge change in oil production from pre covid. it's coming back slowly after covid. there is plenty of oil but companies have to manufacture and refine it.
k. oversold in every way possible. watching closely if they save trendline.
I have exactly same drawn...Right now a tad bit above line.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/SeETc6Ut/
I went to jc penny and macy's to return something couple of days back. stores are full of inventory yet i hardly saw any customers...not sure how this cpi and ppi are still going higher....i see energy is major contributor but still....
Other day I was talking to my tennis buddy who is hedge fund manager and have very good track record for past 30 years. he analyzes very simply and explains in simple way. what he said was amazing.
He said he started moving his personal and client's money to defensive positions starting December with high inflation data kept coming and that's when everyone was expecting rate hikes. I think by February fed indicated interest rate hikes were certain. he moved his money aggressively around that time. If you entered when fed stopped raising rates for first time then even if you waited until first rate hike in March you will be fine.
Now what he says is wait until jpowell says he is done with interest rate hikes. usually it will start showing 1 or 2 months before his decision but no need to hurry and you can wait until he announces. he showed past announcements in 2019 and previous times. he said we have long ways to go. in between we get these hopes and then the inflation will come high and markets go down again....
who is bt?
I agree with some of your points but imo it's 100% Ukraine's fault in their policy.
As a border country to another super power either you stay neutral or align with them. you cannot align with another super power which is very far away and won't send troops to protect them....that's why lot of south east asian countries chose non aligned countries and friendly with both of them.....why ruin everything when there is a chance to stay friendly with both and extract all the benefits....
Once the war happened, then it's Russia's fault to attack a democratic country and all the democracies have to come together otherwise it's just free rein to these authoritarian dictators.
Is that your perception or you think people's perception about worst president.
I am sorry but what is wrong with people both on left side and right side taking one parameter and come to conclusion to worst president. there are several things which potus is not even control of on this inflation.
1) Previous govt 4 years of tariffs tantrums made all the companies align their supply chains,
2) Pandemic hit and worst handling completely messed up the supply chains which were already under stress due to tariff tantrums.
3) Constant whining and bickering with Powell by previous guy made Powell print 20 trillion in 1year because of elections.
4) Previous guy made a deal with saudi arabia for big oil production cut because of lack of demand and now after the pandemic they are not going back to those levels.
5) Russia - Ukraine war....no one can control this or support this war except russia. Not sure what everyone wants but it's moral thing to support a democratic country ukraine otherwise these authoritarian govts will run loose.
6) The current govt is either cancelling/not issuing new lease for oil wells which will take years to come to production and it won't affect any thing on current prices.....
7) Fed totally messed up by just kept printing money when money supply was coming from fiscal policy as well. as soon as the fiscal stimulus bill passes, fed should cut down same amount immediately.
8) You could argue the stimulus bills were not necessary but i know first hand all the fed printing was nicely going to corporations and top 2% rich people.
9) Imo stimulus should come thru fiscal policy rather than fed printing money and fed should back off when those bills are being passed.
Wonder if the selling will be very fast from here on red days.....
All cash. after i took losses from stupid overnight holdings and started fresh i recovered half of it. from now i have to be very strict not to hold overnight....
Yes. I do very good doing trades for that day and do not hold overnights. i hardly spend any time researching as i just trade spy,qqq,aapl,amd,msft....big ranges....
the big screw up happens when there is huge gap ups then fomo kicks in and feel bad missing on that and hold 1 or 2 positions overnight next day....
Yes very true. not sure why i keep holding overnight once in a while and screwing up...
So true. Lot of good traders doesn't short or play puts for this reason...there is lot of money made when it goes up.....
SNAP is bad from the beginning any way. they took fb down a lot. i am going to play fb calls today...
With the amount of money injected i think we see gap,ramp, camp.....for few days....
where do you see that info?
Earnings and employment are lagging indicators. First it starts with bad earnings and then the layoffs come.
Not some truth.100% truth. I started in markets in 2007 and same exact thing happened and missed the biggest bull market.
TNX.10 year yield fell to 2.86. If vix also comes down then face rip rally?
Probably because it's too much risk you are not comfortable with you are taking...
That exactly happened to me whole year. I watched few traders comments and i realized bear markets or when vix/volatility is very high it needs less risk and less size and i am following 15 min chart. i am playing only 1 call or 1 put atm spy and qqq. since there are large movements i am getting big gains even in 1 call/ 1 put. when i am wrong, it gives me plenty of time to take loss and be in the right direction. since it's only 1 contract, loss is like only 100 to 150$. this way i do not have to worry about watching every tick.
yes. it was last week's weekly S-2 pivot and Last week's low. 4105.
wow stalling at 4100...
Yes. 15 min chart..supports broken...heading lower.
I am paper trading on iphone in td/thinkorswim mobile...very good paper account. actually i am realizing futures is the least monitoring needed. no overnight gaps and screw ups. buy and set stop and forget it. you can put trailing stop like -5 or -10 points once your position is profitable and it will take care of the gains....
you should trade spx,ndx,rut futures with stop losses instead of options. available almost 24 hrs. no overnight manipulation. since these are absolute numbers, stop losses are much better.
for example last week s&p top was around 4301. if you think s&p top was 4290. you short 1 contract at 4290 stop loss at 4300 which gives -500 loss if it goes 4300. if the stop is triggered you immediately short at 4300 and stop loss is 4310. since you are assuming your top is near you keep shorting with 10 points stop based on your risk. you are just trading absolute levels with high probability. if you are right you will catch 100-200 points. if you are right your stop loss won't be hit and you keep moving your stop loss and if by any news it rips hard you will stay profitable. every 10 points you will make 500$. I think e-mini futures are less expensive and less gains. to play 1 contract all you need is 25k margin account. if you catch 200 points you can get 10k for just 1 contract.
Last week was from 4301 to 4118.