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What I find interesting on the daily is how the handle formed running on the 200period and then launched through resistance. Also of note how price came back inside the bb's and even with the gap up today is still inside the upper band. Almost text book kind of action. I find this kind of stuff intriguing. If you look at the ADX at the bottom of the indicators the red and green lines are wider apart than the standard mean and will revert (lessen that separation) soon. Most likely before another push up. We shall see.
What would be truly amazing IMO is if todays intraday gap fills and then price closes 8.60's or better. How is that for ruminating?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63123220096&a=1544258022
Green Trades.
Great point on the potential for blow off top. Gap today, if unfilled intraday increases those odds even more.
Course news would trump the chart. Could something be leaking out? Is this just XBI sector and market driven? Does it even matter in the short term and is just something to take advantage of?
Will be watching the action and close for signs and confirmations. Tomorrow is a quad witch so volatility expected.
Green Trades
Amazing close.
Added the green dashed downtrend line.
4/8/13 ema combo still positively stacked tracks and pointed upward. As long as 4 remains above the 8 and 13 is support it can run until that changes. How long? No way to know for sure. It will let us know. If the top red horizontal becomes support then attacking higher gains in odds. Strength would also be indicated if price does not lose the support/resistance zone it has been in and working its way to get through.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63123220096&a=1544258022
That weekly chart could present strong resistance from the downtrend line as well as the 50period. You can see that price is still making lower highs on the weekly, but has been filling in the week support zone with volume. The major support sma's (100 and 200) are angle down with the 50 flattening.Could be a very tough push through or rejection without news. Time will tell.
Not an exhaustive reading by any means and JMHO.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93926737676&a=861844297
Here is how the hourly is setting up trying to make a breakout up through and hold above the current VbP bar resistance support zone.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=25&id=p87482797286
Readers can cue in on their own favorite indicators to consider odds.
Green Trades
sab63090. Godspeed. May peace and strength flow in and through you.
My journey is now 15 years long from stage 4 follicular non hodgkins lymphoma. In fact Dec 24 is the the 15 year anniversary of my 4th cycle of 6 chemo blast treatments 3 weeks apart. It is nasty business whatever kind one has/faces. Honestly never expected to still be living and enjoying family this long.
Anything I can be supportive with just shoot me a PM.
Wow, what an amazing close.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63123220096&a=1544258022
I would be ecstatic if price holds some strength and closes above 8.13. We shall see.
My preference is to deal with closing prices so I will defer until after markets close.
Green Trades.
Caution is appropriate for sure.
Relationship of QQQ green line, XBI pink line and AVXL candles on a 6month daily.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p30749324274
Yes there are correlations. AVXL and XBI are much more synced. Also the timing of news releases or quiet becomes an obvious factor in AVXL moving quickly directionally when supported or stepped on by XBI. Both XBI and AVXL show independent movement from the Q's for periods of time. The mean for AVXL is much more closely tied to XBI though the Q's do have gravitational influence for sure.
I think what these correlations on a 6month daily confirm is that if/when AVXL gets approvals it is perfectly capable of moving on its own and a short squeeze is very possible if not likely... Those are some random thoughts while waiting for the days close.
I haven't even paid attention to it in a few years. That one proved to me it didn't have the management or product to be successful. I actually rode it too long.
Leo made all the money he needed/wants through dilution. In the time I traded his stock the O/S ballooned with no return for stockholders who didn't constantly trade the ups and downs.
I am here at EGYF now and so far happy to be here. Giving this time to set the foundation and prove itself. Risk is always part of the OTC market. I still like my odds here, but will be more demanding. I think the path to success here is a cleaner and more visible process than that baby bio.
All just my opinion and not advice.
Green Trades.
Very interesting close for AVXL. Daily shows a hammer candle right above the 200period.
Today S&P attempted a breakout.
Tomorrow is the CPI report.
Wed is the Fed decision.
Friday is a quadruple witching day. Often leads to greater price volatility as big boys hit both directions for expiring options so they can reduce premiums paid out to retail while increasing the profits to their pockets.
Price held above daily AVXL 8ema.
What effect, if any, will these events have on AVXL rest of the week?. Daily XBI also has a hammer candle just above its 200 period. Just have to wait on confirmations and not get emotional over the volatility
Going to be a very interesting rest of the week.
Green Trades.
For now I favor the 5.75 gap as a likely runaway/breakaway gap. Why? Because it fits the definition.
Toward beginning of an up move reversal. Closed at/near the high of the day.
"Because breakaway gaps tend to occur at the beginning of a move and tend to not get filled, they are the only type of gap that should be purchased. Investors should note that the best breakaway gaps tend to close near the high of the daily range. A poor close can hint that the gap may be prone to failure."
There is a lot of support that would have to breakdown to get back to 5.75. The April 7.44 swing low candle coupled with the 7.54 recent high and the upward trending 13ema at 7.44 need to be confirmed support failures. If they all fail and the 7.10 50 period fails only then will I begin to evaluate 5.75 gap potentially becoming filled. Since that gap up there has been an established trend of price above the 13ema. For me, that would be the first major need for a sustained downward move.
For price to return to 5.75 IMO requires both a significant drop in XBI with an absence of AVXL news and a growing degradation of confidence in approvals.
Just the way this one geriatric reads the tea leaves for his opinion. 😎
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p15084378404
PS: my hope for the future is for the 50period to continue turning up and cross the 100 and then 200 because of PR's and positive AVXL developments. But that is also putting my cart before the horse.
Had some time.
First downside targets.
This is based on if the 200day currently at 7.91 does not hold.
1st target. Does the blue 8ema hold price?
2nd target. Does the orange 13ema hold price?
3rd evaluation. What happens in the area of market structure weak support/resistance zone? The bottom of that zone is 7.20ish and the only remaining significant support is the 50period currently 7.10.
It doesn't seem like the algo bots are paying any attention to the 65ema. On big board stocks they can alternate using it or the 50period or stick with one. Then 6.50ish comes into play.
We shall see pretty quick by midweek if news plays a role or cooling turns into a retrace.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p16207972301&a=1553294319
On an 18month Daily chart 7.54 is a potential line in the sand support line give or take a few cents IMO.
Also, whether or not the Bottom of that nearest lower VbP bar is not confirmed resistance below it.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p90622777284&a=1548483515
Right now odds favor testing at least the 8ema. All IMO
I'll get to the downside targets sometime this afternoon or evening.
This is a chart I like and use for helping with purchases and sells of trading shares, especially sells. I always confirm with a 60minute and complete 6month daily evaluation of support/resistance and targets.
Happy to answer any questions.
First I look at the ema's.
Second, I evaluate the close in relation to the high and low. Gives a good picture of the trend of strength or weakness in price.
Third I look at indicators. RSI for momentum. Standard MACD and then fast MACD and what price is doing relative to their movement.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=9&id=p24033382887
So far so good. I added another box to the daily to see what potential positivity targets could look like. Also added two potential resistance dotted red lines that were recent highs 3 months and 4 months ago.
Daily
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63123220096&a=1544258022
Check a weekly chart for longer term resistance points as well as how the two charts mesh.
Green trades everyone.
4 consecutive days AVXL price closes above the daily 200 period. I really like how these boxes have played out. Tomorrow and first part of next week I would love to see price continue holding the 200 (currently 7.92) as support and building sideways while indicators cool some more. Would make an incredible launch potential with strong news in the next week or so. Handle with news could propel price to or right past the weekly 200 at 10.09. The TA is set up nicely. Come on FA do your part. 😇
Daily.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63123220096&a=1544258022
AVXL still working at holding the $8.00 line. If that continues then forming a handle will have increasing odds on the daily. We shall see.
Government oversight means more public employees that do nothing for US productivity and lowers the actual workforce contributing to growth.
I'll try it again.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/07/biden-administration-asserts-power-to-seize-drug-patents.html
OK, I think this one is working.
The Gov determining what is a reasonable price. Like that has ever happened. Oh, kind of like the Post Office running a 6.3billion dollar debt this year.
Does this concern anyone else here and its affect on drug companies/ AVXL?
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/07/biden-administration-asserts-power-to-seize-drug-patents.
Found this article interesting.
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/micro-and-nanoplastics-linked-parkinsons-and-dementia
Me as well. The debt rate of increase both national and individual is alarming. Anyone who doesn't think the recent inflation increase and the shrinking middle class won't have profound impact on the economy and private sector has their head in the sand. My natural gas bill for heating is almost double per decatherm than it was last year and when the teens down to zero hits I will not be a happy camper. Upwardly mobile has not only come to a halt it is a shrinking class.
The article really doesn't hit how critical the trend is IMO.
It is going to be quite interesting what effect Mark Cubans "Cost Plus Pharmacy" and CVS announcing they are going to that model for drug pricing will have. Will other pharmacies follow? How will cost be determined? Will drug manufacturers margins increase or decrease is under debate. How will AVXL determine pricing? Will they be bought out, go the licensing model or some other monetizing model?
Fed is getting noisy about reducing drug costs as well. Will the pharmaceutical industry make changes or will it be like the Fed figuring COLA or CPI #'s? I bring it up for thought about how stocks could be affected in 2024. Hmmm
My 2cents on Sab quote.
On a weekly XBI is now running into strong resistance zone from here to low 90's with a down angled 100period at 81.28 currently near the bottom of that zone.
The 50period is flat at 79.99.
For momentum stoch is getting near overbought and rsi/adx still have a bit of room. For trend both macd's are showing at highs for the last year. There is room for more if the highs from 2022 are in play for the XBI sector. If XBI is going to fight for up then closing with support above 82.65 is a must. without it then consolidation or down is the higher odds.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XBI&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43210107402
Comparing the weekly AVXL to the XBI, XBI is the more advanced chart. AVXL is pushing against the 50period. It has flattened and trying to turn up. Very similar chart setup with AVXL having more structural resistance to go through.
There is potential soon in both for a cup and handle pattern.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37486996519
Comparing daily charts.
XBI indicators are all overbought. Opportunity to make support here at the 200 period, chart cool and form cup and handle.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XBI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p27122755599
AVXL eerily similar. Opportunity to make support at 200 period, for chart to cool and form cup and handle to make an attack that August 9.89 high while XBI would go after its August high of 86.8
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58173943002
That is the case for up.
If that doesn't transpire then one can pick the support levels for retrace testing.
If AVXL news is sufficiently strong/amazing then they don't need to move in tandem.
Conclusion. TA theory is making a case for consolidation and needing support. FA can trump that through news, so IMO it boils down to timing of news.
Synergy between FA and TA create the best stock prices and ultimately the greater stability over the long term than one in isolation.
8.20 close is in the books and very solid. IMO, stronger than just following the market.
I picked the 8.20 off a 5minute chart and the 7.95 off a daily.
Want to see 8.20 or above close ideally.
Never wrong for someone to take profits. Rinse and repeat. 😎
8.16 current price.
AVXL still showing some mojo.8.28 is top of the VbP support/resistance zone.
For those with a stockcharts account here is what your eighteen month Daily 7.62 line looks like.
Just click on the link.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63462859611&a=1548483515.
3 year weekly.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80681641399
Your microcap comment is spot on.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p84636813174
I don't think they would be going ahead with their Maryland brownfield pilot project with site clearing starting Dec 11th if their wasn't funding or some means of making it happen. This was public information with the twitter announcement on Nov 29th. Just my reading between the lines.
Wow, I had on my notes an ideal close for today for price to be 7.54 (previous recent high on this run) or better and AVXL closed at 7.57.
Enjoy your weekend everyone. Looking forward to Monday.
Take a look at the last 30minutes of trading on a 5minute chart. Love it. Sweet how those volume bars are increasing as well.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p01585079897
Watching to see if we get something strong in this last month of 2023 to kick things off for 2024.
If todays current engulfing candle holds up then the odds of testing that upper resistance go way up.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32537732308&a=1544258022
LOL, lots crap floating for sure.
Many methods that provide liquidity to the markets. Agreed, limited liquidity reduces selling for profit opportunities.
IMO, the XBI chart is throwing off distribution signals in this run up through CMF and A/D. Both macd's and stoch are signaling near topping and the 100period would be convenient opportunity for the bots. Close today and then Mon-Wed trading will reveal a lot. Seems that the odds favor some breathing/retrace to build for more up.
Big boys have more to distribute for profits before an actual correction. At least my thoughts for the short term. Flexibility is our best friend for pulling profits.
Great content here with everyone contributing. Very welcome after so much garbage on AVXL and other stock boards.
Green Trades.
Agreed.
Hope you don't mind my adding a little humor ($54 comment) in my post. I have read enough of your posts to know that you are reasonable and use charts effectively. Solid TA plus solid FA IMO is the combo for max reward on these emerging bio stocks.
Nice to see this board more active again.
Nice chart. Thanks
Haha, I think in the closet you may have picked up that analyst virus calling for $54 target. 😷🤠
I'm just a one step at a time guy. That said, I do dream. Stopped buying green bananas years ago.
Would be amazing to capture even a part of the potential market share.
Green Trades.
For sure. This last 20minutes will be interesting for the fight at the 100period.
XBI fighting with the 100 period as well.
So far the fast ema's continue to push price upward with $$ inflows supporting. The box in green now becomes the focus for price movement. Could still test the blue box again, however momentum and trend still want some more upside. For today and tomorrow the 100period needs confirmation that it can become support. Resistance increases significantly from here (7.20's) to 7.62. Watch to see if 7.29 remains the high of the day today and how AVXL closes. If price can keep going through 7.62 then the 200period and longest/strongest VbP zone look like formidable resistance at 7.98ish, give or take a few pennies. We shall see. So far so good on this move.
Green Trades.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58722411539&a=1544258022
AVXL price testing the daily 100 period again. 4,8 and 13ema's nicely +stacked, upward angles and separation for price support. For traders, it is a hold as long as that continues or until short term target is met IMO. Indicators supportive of potential continuation as well. LT sma or ST ema's will battle here for supremacy. 😎
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p39945771140
Green Trades