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Not at all. The point is your very ihub ID is 'insidernews', and you wrote "LP sold 11 million shares in the past 3 weeks..".
Nonsense, you know nothing about insider selling, in fact you are an idiot. Just don't post nonsense claims of insider selling that COULD NOT HAVE HAPPENED with no SEC forms 4 or 5 for insider selling having been reported.
As a fact entirely unrelated to insider selling, the share count increased by 11M shares. That doesn't necessarily mean warrants were exercised - that's only 1 possibly way the share count could have increased. Nor does it necessarily mean that those new shares were sold in the open market, we have no way of knowing whether or not any or all of them were.
Yes, your one idea amid a lot of confusion is that even if the shares were from warrants being exercised and they were sold into the open market that didn't flood the demand for the stock. In that alone you are correct and it's a possible positive point. Only possible because again we have no way of knowing whether or not any of the new shares were sold into the open market (which you seem to be asserting as fact that they were).
Good question. I would have thought not because simply exercise for cash without selling the acquired underlying, means there would not be any net disposition. But on searching briefly I noticed a link to a primer regarding insider filing which indicates that the insider should report the exercise both as a decrease in the number of warrants held and increase in # of shares held. If that is true then if she obeyed the regulations LP has not exercised any warrants.
Below is a quote about it and the link it came from. The link is in a chapter on trading plans but I assume the underlying reporting would be the same if warrants are exercised by an insider outside of any trading plan:
insert-text-here
Don't confuse people with low knowledge/understanding! If LP sells shares the sales need to be reported to the SEC within 3 days. No such sales were reported. All you are commenting on is an 11M increase in the outstanding share count. That increase could come from conversion of warrants into shares (obviously this is NOT per se a sale), or it could come from other issuance of shares e.g. sale of the C series convertible (1 C share = 25 ordinary shares).
It may be that some warrant holder other than an insider exercised warrants and immediately sold the shares. But we know for sure that insiders have not been exercising and selling because insiders have to report and we haven't seen any such reports.
Seems like you missed the investing 102 course where 'insider transactions must be reported to the SEC in a timely manner' is discussed.
DocLee, wow, you sure know how to explain stuff concisely and clearly! I didn't need to know the topic in question but huge Kudos on your ability to explain something complicated in brief yet in full so that any Tom, Dick or Harry can understand (assuming T/D/H has 1/2 a brain or better).
You've nailed the wrong guy. Jammyjames is a legit medical research pro and he has always been pro-NWBO and anti-fud. He hasn't been seen on the MB for a couple of years but he posted a generally positive review of the trial data when it came out.
I was just trying to imagine why Trancredi and/or Walgreens has an interest in DcVax. There's no need to be an ah.
I'd like to think the patients will be doing much better once they start on the vax, but in general probably not, so you've got a point. I don't think they are getting routine MRIs but their oncologists may be tracking their general conditions closely (or not). I have no experience so just taking a wild guess.
Yeah, as a related issue for some purely random speculation, I wonder WRT who provides the injections and under what setting that would make the treatment be considered, namely outpatient treatment vs drug. In medicare terms, covered under Part B (outpatient medical care) or Part D(prescription drug). This may not make much if any difference to the patients but it could be a big deal in terms of which accounting bucket it goes into, and what's better for the providers and/or insurers.
Pharmacists are dispensing all kinds of matter of life and death drugs every day. Even in a large university hospital, I can easily imagine that the handling, preparation, and injection could well be delegated to pharma or nursing staff and not necessarily all handled by the oncologists themselves.
I'm neither pharmacists nor MD so I'm not going to waste any more time arguing about this. I'm just wondering why Tancredi has any interest and knowledge about it if it has absolutely nothing to do with his company's business.
in edit: FWIW, I just noticed that NWBO cites Tancredi in their legal motion vs the MTD in the spoofing case. Hmmmm.
How many patients have an immediate reaction to the injection? BTW to the extent that the patients are frail, all the more reason to bring the vaccine to them rather than making them travel to a cancer center which is far from where they reside.
These are full-service pharmacies that do vaccinations and are staffed by professional pharmacists who have the same qualifications as pharmacists in any hospital. The covid vaccines require frozen storage - the first ones required much lower temps than now but that makes me think that any pharmacy that provided covid vaccinations probably has deep freezers that can store DcVax.
Now, what is required to administer the vaccine? If it's a simple intermuscular injection clearly any pharmacist can give the shot. As far as I know, it's not given IV, if that were the case then probably they don't do that in a pharmacy, probably that requires at least an RN. Many patients will not be within a short drive of their nearest academic cancer center, so if the infusion of Dc-Vax consists of a mere injection it's more than a little inconvenient for the patients to commute many times to the cancer center just to get an injection. isn't it? If it's just an injection like the pharmacies are doing for many other vaccines, and if they have the requisite deep freezing cold storage freezers then I don't see any reason that NWBO could not contract with a Walgreens or similar mega chain drug store for distribution to patients. And that seems likely to be the most economical for all involved.
The fact that Walgreens also sells ice cream has nothing to do with their pharmacy operations, don't be daft about that. Covid and many other vaccines are also provided in retail pharmacies attached to grocery stores like Safeway. Those pharmacists are also as qualified as pharmacists anywhere - they aren't working in any department other than the pharmacies that supply prescription meds to most members of their communities.
You're wrong.
Walgreens provides all kinds of vaccinations.
Ray Tancredi is the Divisional VP of Walgreens drug chain. Among other things, he's in charge of vaccine procurement. Walgreens is an American company that operates the second-largest pharmacy store chain in the United States, behind CVS Health.
It seems to me just maybe Walgreens could end up contracting with NWBO to provide handling and injection of DCVax. Walgreens stores are everywhere in both rural and metro markets.
Ray Tancredi, RPh, MBA, CSP
Certified Director
Walgreen Co.
Divisional VP, Specialty Pharmacy Development & Brand/Rx Vaccine Purchasing
Ray Tancredi is divisional vice president, Specialty Pharmacy Development Brand Rx/Vaccine Purchasing, at Walgreens, based in Deerfield, Illinois.
Tancredi oversees a team responsible for all specialty pharmacy trade functions including Specialty Pharmacy product access, including limited distribution and relationships, managing manufacturer hub services and referrals, contract negotiation, implementation and compliance, pharma programs and services, data analysis and reporting, RFP support and coordinating clinical, patient services, new drug in-services, and education. Additionally, he oversees management of strategic manufacturer accounts in an effort of maximize contracts and provide exceptional customer service.
Tancredi also oversees the team responsible for brand prescription drug launches and vaccine procurement including flu vaccine, GPO relationships, and specialty pharmacy distributors.
The rate of dilution is still very low. Especially if they continue to sell new shares at less than 10% discount to market with no warrants. I believe only 1 deal worth $1M has gotten any warrants this year (that buyer already had some warrants that were short-lived, that's the reason they got special treatment in this regard). Large scale dilution is in general very bad for longs, but notwithstanding the whinging and whining by some on this MB, the actual rate of dilution here and with the terms they've been getting, is not a big threat to our equity. Just do the math on (new shares issued)+/(total shares outstanding).
At the same time if you don't think the shares can and will appreciate considerably you should not be in this stock. That goes without saying.
The hit piece is a very amateur effort. I commented on it as follows:
I won't debate your general thesis - my thesis as a long depends on understanding how horrible a disease GBM is and hence knowing what an important advance DcVax is and how certain it is to become the new SOC for GBM, especially given the latest combination trials at UCLA showing a 5 year survival rate far, far above the 2.5 times SOC results in NWBO's phase 3 trial. To anybody who doesn't understand the importance of those results in the clinic, NWBO shares would be an unacceptable risk because the return side of the risk/return equation is completely dependent on getting marketing approval. We are still waiting for the initial marketing application to MHRA (the UK's FDA) though we are quite sure that will be made within weeks.
But in any case, this kind of analysis certainly has to be backed by numbers, hopefully fairly accurate numbers. You are completely missing the most important numerical analysis for this kind of analysis and what numbers you do present include at least one blindingly glaring error in your math.
The latter comes where you claim that selling another 115M shares will dilute the current shares by 50%. Huh? 115M new shares is only 10% of the 1.1B current outstanding count. 115/1100 is about 10% dilution, nowhere near 50%. Where did you get a 50% dilution on issuing 115M new shares?
Second, you pull out of your hat a likely valuation after getting marketing approval as a $1-$2B market cap. For any biotech (or for that matter ANY public company), the most important measure of value certainly is the addressable market, and what % penetration of that market can be expected over time, vs the expected revenue per patient (more accurately the gross margin on that revenue) per patient. Without any such analysis, you just throw out a random number. Your estimate of the upside - the heart of any analysis such as this - is in other words a random WAG. If you actually did any work on that you certainly aren't showing it.
No, I wrote nothing personal at all, I only remarked that you obviously have no source of information and are posting random nonsense.
The NICE approval is needed to get NHS reimbursement, though Flipper has noted that there is some interim process which I myself know nothing about. But insurance authorization is key everywhere DcVax will be marketed and obviously enabling full reimbursement and revenue will be second but almost as high in priority to NWBO to getting the RA approval. There is no chance that they are not completely aware and not screwing around with getting that as soon as it becomes needed, i.e. as soon as possible after RA approval.
OK, you very obviously don't know what you are talking about.
What's the timeline for NICE processing (what remains of that process since they had already had this in progress in 2018) vs the timeline for processing the MAA? NWBO knows what they are doing with this and you don't. You are really jumping to conclusions that they are somehow screwing this up in any way, but don't let that stop you from assuming that you know the details of what is going on with the NICE process.
I interpret this as simply confirming that the MAA has not been filed yet as of course we are all well aware. Why do you take it to mean anything different?
8/14 is the due date for normal filers. I'm not sure they are. If NWBO is still an accelerated filer then tomorrow is the deadline.
10-Q: Due Monday, August 14, 2023 for Quarterly Period Ended 06/30/23.
I believe we will see a solid increase, maybe doubling of R&D revenue over Q2 (i.e. the net revenue from the Specials program).
Wow, you are unbalanced on this one IMHO. Nothing that either Senti nor Thermo have ever posted here over some years would lead me to think that they are traders, not patient long term long investors. Quite the opposite. Just my reading but I'm very confident in my judgment.
Did it ever occur to you that Thermo might be playing it a bit more cautiously with his prediction this time around having been wrong about it happening in the Spring? Anyway, we all know he's just making an educated guess. Meanwhile let the traders continue to trade, so what?
Buyers are not on strike here. I just feel sorry for any longs that throw in a winning hand just because they get too impatient and/or have financial pressures that force them to sell.
The longer we wait and especially if we go lower, the more shares confident longs like me will be picking up in the meantime. If somebody wants to try to trade or short enough stock to overwhelm the amount of support at the ready, GL to them. Whatever Thermo thinks is no guarantee that they don't submit the MAA any week now. Anyway, the real bomb will ignite when we get the MAA approved especially if the NICE approval happens before or concurrently with that, which I believe is possible. In the meantime anybody who wants to try to make pennies on trading let them have at it. That's definitely NOT where the real action is.
Thermo had some egg on his face after predicting the MAA in the spring. I would guess he got some hint from LG or DI the company needed a bit more time than they had expected. I don't think he would have made a prediction out of thin air. He probably learned his lesson and he's not going to make another guess at this point. Besides we heard LG talk about doing the final review on that guy's podcast, nothing more to say.
Seems like as usual Ex has been a bullshitter making false claims at will.
Thanks, Doc. I think you understand this whole situation very well and know that these concerns are not the full but a very large part of the reason it's taken NWBO so long to push this thru the regulatory regimes. This is all something that they naysayers will never get and will be left sputtering, screaming foul etc. when Dc-Vaxl gets approved. They will never accept that is possible and will be in denial to the bitter end, the sweet end for longs, that is.
Even if somebody is annoyed, there are levels of discourse, and potty-mouth and name-calling are the lowest level possible and have the potential to destroy the communication medium itself - which may well be part of what these guys seek.
IMO that stuff can only damage the poster's credibility to the extent that they otherwise had any. It shows no self-control, mental instability, and/or personal development that got arrested in their jr high years. What kind of professional environment, if any, have these people ever worked in? I'd hate to imagine. Maybe they think it's a kind of trump card to pull out but it seems to me to be the ultimate 'I am a jackass' ID card.
Wait, are you the same guy who earlier today was calling everybody who you disagreed with 'imbecile'? Or was that a jr high student you share this id with? Or maybe you had been drinking a lot?
Coming from you this is rich indeed.
Right, a twitter poster tweets that some woman has posted somewhere that a shareholder told her that somebody told them blah blah blah. No link to anything has been provided. And you're "OMG management must address this rumor, look at how incompetent they are". Have you been drinking?
I hope you sold your NVCR. I don't see any sign it's hit bottom yet, seems like sub-$20 might be in the cards. Looks like it's still too early to try to catch that falling piano. What's your price target to buy back in?
But you're not at all attempting to put words in Bigger’s mouth when you say 'with the silent part being “but it’s not being realized.”'? I guess the irony in that is lost on you, LOL.
You completely misread his one tweet about becoming an active investor [if...]. You project your own views onto Bigger who never said anything like you are claiming he did. It's all your projection.
You've gotten yourself so worked up that you're screwing up simple math. $1B/1.2B shares = a share price of .833 per share, not .50.
BTW, I thought you sold your position. If you're still hanging out here to try to demonstrate how clever you are, you are not succeeding.
I don't think we can tell who is just posting their random opinion, for some reason over and over ad nauseum. There are lots of Dunning-Kruger cases to be found who enjoy stroking themselves on these message boards. A company like this that takes a lot of patience and is subject to being pushed into deeply undervalued price for extended periods is fertile ground for some to claim false expertise obsessively.
Current annual new dilution rate is about 5%. If that's breaking anybody's back their backs are very weak indeed. Personally, I anticipate appreciation based on filing the UK MAA and then marketing approval apps to 3 other non-UK RAs, followed by approval of the same will totally dwarf the 5% pa dilution rate, probably by several orders of magnitude eventually. Anybody who doesn't believe that is probable would be stupid to stay invested here, imo.
It's very true that LOTS of equity got crushed when NWBO sold hundreds of millions of shares at .25 with 100% warrant coverage. That damn well is not what is happening now. For one thing the rate of dilution is tiny compared to the prior disaster that happened 6-7 years ago, also there is no evidence that warrants are being issued at all let alone 100% coverage. Anybody with a brain can see that the current level of dilution is hardly 'breaking long's backs'. Investing in pre-market companies is not for the faint-hearted but at least one should accurately understand what the risk/reward math is and not whine constantly about constant very small dilution which is very obviously required on the road to getting the product to market and/or closing a partnership deal of one sort or the other.
BTW managing one's stock market investments in start-ups by 'sunk investment costs' (i.e. I bought at a higher price so I 'can't afford to sell here at a loss') is one of the worst investment ideas you can have, in case that is motivating anybody to hold on even though they don't see the very large gains coming that I do. If you lost money and don't see a strong likelihood of getting it back, it's usually very foolish not to move on and try to make back your losses with a more promising investment. Surely sophisticated investors like PM know that well.
"There are past instances where the nwbo common Shares Outstanding increased at the same time warrants outstanding shrunk, so there is history to support the idea."
Of course, anytime the warrants are exercised especially in an exercise for cash, the # of warrants shrink while shares outstanding increase by the same number.
That's a bit like saying 'the sun rises and it gets light out'.
Thanks! I had decided to starting buying again at end of April when the price stabilized at just below .50. I used to be able to start an xfer from my bank account to e*trade and get immediate credit but now they delay the availability of $ for 4 days. So I just got the cash the day the price started moving off .50, at least I was able to catch .53 on 10k shares in the morning of 5/3 the day it opened at .49 or .50 and closed at .60. I had some more cash dribbling in after that and was able to buy most of the rest at .60, though I did buy a few tho for .61.
In light of that the current pullback obviously doesn't thrill me but I think news is near and we're more likely to see .70 again and not very likely to trade back down to .50. I don't doubt that this is a great entry point. If I had more cash I might try to see if it gets into the low .50s again. OTOH, there is now much more risk than when I picked up my shares that one might miss the boat while one waited to confirm a trading low and instead have an announcement of MAA application made one day while waiting for a still cheaper price and then see the stock jump by .10-.20 immediately rather than drop another .5-.10 before any news happens. I'm not a trader - don't care about buying at the absolute bottom of the current range nor would I sell any for less than a 100% gain from this level and would prefer to hold for much more than that if I can.