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Answer: no one has come up with a better one yet
Trade as you deem proper to prosper.
Nothing maddening there at all
I am very comfortable with my market positions. I am not comfortable with CYPW's performance history. My conversations with Schoell and Nelson years ago were revealing and hence I did not expect too much. What I failed to expect was just how dismal their management would turn out to be. I erred in underestimating their sheer incompetence in engineering, financial matters and total lack of concern for shareholders.
Sorry if that's harsh, but the evidence supporting my assertion is clear and convincing.
The price needs to get back to at least 10 cents for most people to be made whole. I'm not one of 'em, thank goodness. So, I see no reason for cork popping yet. 4MM shares up a penny = $40k. So what? That's certainly not enough to get excited about. I've sold over $250k worth of this stock years ago.
$50k making for a nice vacation? You may have unwittingly pinpointed CYPW's financial mismanagement
Does Phoenix Power have the financial horsepower to actually do this deal? Also, can CYPW actually produce so that PPG does not invoke the cancellation clause? Since 2007, we've been rewarded with a steady stream of unrequited expectations.
Sorry, folks, but I'll believe actual sales if and when monies are actually received and working product is shipped. Not before.
Hi Terry -
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Quote: Buyers have to be deliriously happy with that thought.
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Only if the stock has a chance of significantly rising. Steady declines simply mean that unsuspecting buyers are being used to cash out those who have been awarded stock in lieu of cash compensation. They are cashing out what they can when they can.
I see no chance of any significant upward movement unless a complete change in business is made.
We are headed towards "sub-penny-land" soon....
Is everyone A-OK with that?
Stock price now at 0.015....
Interesting posts, folks. Stock price at 0.017 and falling.....
I looked at all of the CleanBurn news releases - and those in the archive as well. None mentioned Phoenix Power nor Cyclone Power. That says a lot, I would think.
Agreed on all counts. July of 2007 to April 2014 is a long enough time to "fly or die". Management's only hope may be to flip this shell (now that is has been mostly "cleaned up") or fold a truly viable business into it. Of course, we common shareholders will get squeezed in the stock play regardless of which pathway is taken.
I hold almost zero hope of Schoell's technology (such as it is) becoming commercially viable.
The declining stock price tells the story. Sub-penny soon.
There is no intent to deceive that I see. It's simpler than that: we have engineering incompetence, corporate mismanagement, financial mismanagement and a product that may well turn out to be either infeasible or simply not good enough for the target market.
There are two big ditches that line the road to success: selling what you cannot engineer and engineering what you cannot sell. CYPW is guilty of the former.
I read the "report". Bearing issues, lubrication issues and overall operational lifetime issues remain. Alternative materials are being considered via implication (e.g., polymer bearings mentioned on slide #30).
What's missing are the following key items:
1) desired operational life: how much greater than 2500 hours? 2500 hours alone is not nearly reliable enough for anyone to seriously consider installing it.
2) suitability for target market: even if it eventually works, can it do the job requested of it?
3) will it be cost effective?
Folks, I've been hanging around for years as well. Although it's very good to see this thing finally get some competent engineering analysis & design, there's along way to go before anything is sold. It's unfortunate that it took nearly 7 years for CYPW to admit that they just didn't have the engineering horsepower to push this thing over the goal line.
It's also instructive to review all of the past board members, special consultants and advisers. Lots of alleged engineering talent yet it's been OSU's CAR facility that needed to be called into service. I really hope that management is a lot quicker to cry out for help the next time design or performance issues arise.
Getting in now is probably OK since it's dirt cheap.
"I have no quarrel whatever with your history of the shell. I don't know or care about it now. Is there some reason I should?"
That depends. It explains how the current capital structure got to be so ugly. That, in turn, makes it very hard to obtain financing via stock issuance without harming existing shareholders. To that extent, the history matters.
Great hypotheticals but CYPW reality is different. If you can make a living off of timing it, great! With only a few million shares, I cannot. I see no reason (= no good, solid, believable news) that will push the price up much. It's March 2014 and Harry Schoell has been singing the same tune since July 2007. That's a long time to be holding onto a note.
I knew the folks from whom he acquired the shell and they were very bad people. Consequently, the initial capital structure was already heavily tainted and it just got worse from there as Schoell, Nelson, et al tried to clean it up. The bad people made out OK on the "changeover" and the rest watched as things declined steadily over the years, with a brief uptick that lasted a week or so (made some money there).
If you are aware of anything to the contrary, please share it.
I don't hang my hat on 3 hour "trends". Let me know if this ever gets above 10 cents (where it used to be some time ago) without a reverse split. Ain't gonna happen.
A 42% discount at any time for a lousy $100,000? That's called desperation, folks. There is no good way to spin that.
I read this morning's letter. The capital structure and financing aspects are very scary. What exactly was exchanged in return for the $100,000 and promised for the $500,000 capital infusion? Guaranteed it was not at $0.08 per share. Deferred salaries and other debt is easily erased that via conversion and that should have been done a long time ago if Nelson and Schoell are "true believers".
Many folks got in at $0.20 or higher (I was not one them, thankfully). Even if CYPW met all of their predictions for 2014, that would not provide enough upward pressure to break that barrier price-wise because there are just too many shares issued. A mere $2 million in sales - a goal that is merely in "dreamland" currently - does not justify a market cap of nearly $60,000,000 which is what $0.20 per share would imply (note: almost all of the 300,000,000 shares authorized have been issued).
Now that this limit has been raised to 900,000,000 shares, the barrier to a better share price is even higher as those shares are issued.
So, even if CYPW becomes successful in actually selling real, working engines, the capital structure remains a huge problem. Of course, what they will probably do is a reverse split and all of the shareholders who got in during the past 7 years will not fare well.
Thanks for your feedback. Your challenge to them is fair: "Any time they wish they can put their wonder on the market." You realize, of course, that the same challenge also applies to CYPW's products.
As a long-time shareholder, I'd love to see them succeed. Increasing the shares to 900,000,000 and not being able to put a product on the shelf as of February 9, 2014 (IPO July 2007) does not inspire confidence.
What would help a lot would be if Chris Nelson (or whomever is really running the show over there, I can't easily tell) would "come clean" and lay out the facts (i.e., things which we can independently verify) and provide some idea as to the real commercialization timeline.
We hear a lot of stories and have see many PR pieces - but - if you lay that out side-by-side with the quarterly reports, the difference is stark and quite telling.
Thanks for the post. Wow.
Well, they surely compete with CYPW head-to-head. Probably patent-for-patent as well. They only use 2 pistons, probably have no "thwappy" spider bearing and other goofy hi-maintenance parts. Looks simpler than CYPW's engine. I'll call 'em and see what they have actually produced.
I'll bet that I get straighter answers from them than I have gotten from CYPW even though I'm a shareholder. We'll soon see.
The stock price steadily declines, more dilution is on the way, no commercial successes to report and even the existence of a viable product is in doubt. Yet, you are still touting CYPW.
Clearly, you are ignoring the history of this shell. It's been passed around more than a bottle of cheapo whiskey at a frat party. This dilutionary expansion in shares is exactly what happens before a reconstitution of the shell via another RM. Those in control get protected while common stockholders get shafted by getting squeezed not a smaller percentage ownership footprint. I've seen it before.
If you have some real DD - that is not already contradicted by the SEC filings, then whip it out. Otherwise, your credibility is zero. Sorry.
The stock price tells the story. The recent SEC filing by CYPW can only be taken one way: it's very bad news for common stockholders.
Thanks rsum63 for the post. Well, the CYPW games are beginning. Goodby common stock shareholder value....This will be subpenney very soon.
Agreed.
My guess is that CYPW is getting ready to reconstitute itself, squeezing existing shareholders into a smaller footprint while folding itself into another company. This is a typical RM exit out of a bad situation. Existing common stockholders will be screwed while the insiders will be adequately protected due to different classes of stock being handled differently, as well as other "deal sweeteners" that often accompany RMs.
This is exactly what CTTJ did back in 2007 to "become" CYPW. Further back in time, NCST became SDAI which then became CTTJ, finallt becomintg CYPW.
Well, if this is cr@p is pulled again - and it sure looks likely - then CYPW management, including Nelson, Schoell and anyone else involved will be sued. I'll certainly be a part of that group effort. Guaranteed.
Agreed. Having spoken directly with Chris Nelson and Harry Schoell, the lack of hard evidence of a real product is not surprising. It's clear to me at least that CWPW realizes that they don't have much that's valuable in the marketplace right now. They're in scramble mode to create/find value.
They acquired the shell from CTTJ (Jim DiPrima, Robin Moody et al) and it'll be 7 years this coming summer that they've had to produce something. If it has not happened by now, it likely will never happen.
Watch for an exit plan to get value from the shell via a new RM (Reverse Merger) and squeeze the common stockholders into a smaller footprint. A reverse split will likely come either just before or immediately after. This is exactly what transpired between CTTJ and what is now CYPW. The "in crowd" was quite well protected, of course. Everyone else got financially hurt.
This movie is getting old.
Agreed - it was reported. Most people do not read the 8ks or 10ks. You apparently do, as do I. Regardless, deals like these are clear evidence that CYPW is unstable financially because they do not have a product that's reliable enough to generate sufficient sales volume. All they have to sell is stock so that's what they are doing. Sadly, I see no end in sight other than corporate dissolution or reconstitution under a new shell, leaving us common shareholders with zero value.
The stock price and the volume says it all....
Can CYPW pullout of this nosedive? I see little hope. All the recipients of stock in lieu of cash have been bailing as rapidly as they can. What's the plan going forward, or will they just bail until the price goes to squat and then close up shop?
I predicted that just a few weeks ago...
Hi Terry - Horror stories are certainly out there, agreed. Regardless, we have to deal with the situation as it stands. It would sure be nice if our concerns were directly addressed. The last shareholder letter did acknowledge some of these concerns, I'll give 'em that. A formal shareholder meeting where reports are presented and forecasts made would be very helpful. Right now, many of us feel "in the dark" to some extent which cannot be a good thing in the long run. Nelson, as a securities law attorney, should comprehend that I would think.
You can see Harry's open garage door. FLA might be the only sunny, warm place right now in the US. Also, the WHE now uses only 3 cylinders and is a lot quieter. So, that one fella's comments about the excessive amount of bearing "slaps" in the 6 cylinder version was certainly accurate. Of course, Schoell's patents on the various parts that are no longer needed or used are as valuable as TP right now. I wonder how much money was spent pursuing that stuff?
What's missing is commercialization, sales and actual product delivery and deployment. Even if that were to happen and CYPW were to NET $3,000,000 in 2014 (highly unlikely) that would translate to an eps of $0.01 per share. Not exactly something to write home about. With the existing debt, amount due various people and suppliers, any net proceeds are already encumbered.
Those are the financial facts as have been made very clear in the official SEC reports. What I'd like to hear from CEO Nelson is CYPW's go-forward plan to become a real company with real returns on investment. Right now, CYPW is sidestepping that issue completely.
Nice video. That needs to translate into real revenue.
CYPW's other "elephant in the room" (besides a lack of sales) is the huge amount of shares (243,000,000 or thereabouts) making any appreciable rise in stock price very unlikely unless something really magical happens.
In its path to this point since 2007, CYPW really damaged their capital structure and caused extreme dilution. This is not good by any measure and there's no easy way of dealing with that except by a reverse split which would harm a lot of smaller shareholders. A stock buy-back is also possible but they don;t have the capital and are unlikely to ever get it.
If you have any insight into a go-forward financial plan for CYPW that doesn't "dump on" us common shareholders, I'd sure like to hear it because CYPW management is totally silent on this issue. That's NOT reassuring.
Nice progress letter. Still, with 243,000,000 shares outstanding, the capital structure just looks bad. CYPW is actually going to have to sell - and receive real dollars for - a lot of engines and real soon if the stock price is to move upward at all. Right now, there's been nothing but strong downward pressure for two years. The facts are clear on this.
$0.45. Looking at the chart, reviewing the past two year's worth of quarterly reports, noting all of the stock issuances, it's quite clear that unless something really significant happens - and soon - we'll be in the threes by January-February time frame, on a continued descent.
Chris Nelson is probably already searching for another RM candidate so that recapitalization can occur while common stock holders get squeezed into 10-20% of the new organization. This shell has been through that process several times, accumulating more dirt along the way.
Nice stories, thanks. Nonetheless, the reality on the ground is CYPW: where they are, what they have done, what they have failed to do and what are the odds of ever realizing significant shareholder value.
Compared to the corporate anecdotes that you outlined, CYPW's target markets are smaller and more conservative. Thus, the odds of hitting a home run here are much lower than in those other examples. I wish that this were not the case, but CYPW's management is the opposite of reassuring in this area. There quarterly reorts are also rather depressing, with little signs of life.
If any of us are improperly interpreting those reports, please enlighten as as to what we should be looking at and what manner of analysis you would recommend, given the data that they have published. That would be helpful.
Irrespective of the technology, CYPW has about 253 million shares outstanding for a company that doesn't have a working product. That's terrible fiscal management, de minimis.
Tom, thanks for your considered input. I agree with your comments regarding CYPW's behavior, which are consistent with the observations.