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call the number.
it has begun
talking about the forward looking statements blah blah blah
where are my 3 sons and old dog?
the hamsters ran out of food
whats your point?
for me it all empty. I am done unless there is something in this ruling that is positive, I cant believe we aren't simply going to languish in the low 20"s. cant go much lower then that as we have so much in cash
bad day or better said "Bad santa"
pretty quiet here.
about 15k traded coming back up. now down 2.25
my etrade news from Bloomberg just says
interdigital loses patent case with nokia and huawei
do we have any idea of what that means?
VG
on etrade, down 3.02 on about 5000 shares
down 3 bucks on 5000 shares
gbr
I am surprised there is any volume at all! Anybody that is buying because they think it is positive is already in and is just waiting for the results. maybe they buy if there is a positive outcome (albeit at a higher price), but considering the uncertainty of the future and the black cloud that at times hangs over idcc's head, I am not surprised people are waiting until their is an official announcement. The unsure ones were buying those puts all day long on Monday as protection.
If believe in the negative decision then you are likely short and no reason to do anything anyway other then maybe buying some puts to further pile on.
And so we Wait!!!!!!
Just sitting here thinking back at the critical evenings the night before critical rulings and wondered was there any bigger or more important ones then this one?
we have had so many i just wondered if there was one more important. seems to me that with the various appeals afforded to them that without the signing of a license even with a win it can still drag on.
i still wonder why this delayed an additional month after the time was added for the govt shutdown? With all the discussion we have had i am not sure i ever saw a plausible explanation.
Well we said it would come down to a decision as it makes no sense to settle for any of them.
lets hope tomorrow is positive for all of us long suffering longs
if not just remember, they cant take your birthday away from you
!!!!!!!!
been reading a lot of posts this week as I seem to have time behind the computer
I am comforted by the fact that when people are negative and dmiller and the others (you know who you are)are around spewing their crap, I consider it a positive as when we are at our bleakest is when things seem to turn our way.
When we are all congratulating ourselves and believe that the various rulings are going our way (this past summer) is when we get the rug pulled out from under us, but when we are like this we seem to be surprised with positive rulings.
I realize there is no hard and fact rule to this, just a feeling that I get as I this has happened before.
I have maintained the last month or so that this will go all the way and that there will be no courthouse step settlement. I know there were examples of settlements when I said this earlier, but I don't believe that is the case here as NOK has nothing to lose taking this all the way as I am quite sure they have a move we have not thought of should this go the wrong way.
The shame about all this is that it has come down to this all being about nokia and it really should not be.
We hit a new 52 week low yesterday and that all considering the fact that half of our share price (32 bucks) is in cash alone and great 3rd qtr. guidance and positive 4th qtr. guidance.
We could sign a mid level license today and we would take a hit because until this company is out of our hair it will always be about NOK.
I know my 3 sons leads off most days with a count down and a statement about "what will they do" or Jeffries talks about his Friday or Monday surprises which only leads to more angst when nothing happens.
We have to accept the fact that our fate will be found on the 19th next week and the more we lament about past failings the more negative things go
But hey considering how I started this post that makes me sleep a little better.
the one thing you can say over all these years is that the shorts have usually been right.
That is a bit scary that the interest increased 4%. I guess I would have been happy to see an "unchanged", but an increase is a bit of a concern.
If I remember correctly we have had over 6 million shorted at one time, but there were more shares outstanding so not sure what percentage that equates too, but I have to say this does give me some pause.
I guess you can always buy some puts to get some protection but to me that is like playing the pass and the don't pass line.
Either we are right or we go off licking on wounds
6 trading days left
mick
as I said at the end of my previous post, I hope you are right and they settle. nothing would make me more happier I just don't think it will happen in my opinion.
I believe LTE said the Samsung settled similarly as well. I don't know the specifics of either case and whether there were as much back and forth as idcc and nok have.
The good part about all of this is, we now have less then 2 weeks to wait.
I am guessing my 3 sons can tell us how many hours we have!!!!!
DN
Not really a function of too much faith in nokia and not enough in interdigital, it is more about our legal system and not protecting a small business that has brought new technology to an ever changing industry.
lets face it, if our legal system did not provide so many different options for a deadbeat foreign company this would have been resolved countless times before.
The cynic in me is saying that nokia would not have come all this way and spent countless legal fees (while not paying idcc) if they did not feel like they had an average case at least. If it was a much a slam dunk as everyone thought then nokia had more then enough opportunity to settle this thing and not risk a ban and real trouble while likely saving them legal fees and likely getting a better deal in the settlement.
if a settlement or going to a final ruling were one and the same meaning the ruling would be no worse off then settling now then taking it to a ruing makes sense as there really is no risk, but as I understand (though we really don't know what type of deal idcc was offering if any regarding a settlement?) a ban is a whole lot worse and especially when you consider their deal with Microsoft why risk something so deadly if you did not feel like you had a reasonable chance.
I hope I am so wrong that mickey will make fun of me for a month, I really do, I just am having a hard time thinking this is the end.
the 19th cant come soon enough
not quite sure the analogy fits but I get your point.
I am sure nokia has their next move planned if they lose on the 19th and I am quite sure idcc has their move if it does not go their way.
expect the unexpected. Regardless of what we feel about nokia and their nefarious business practices they have always been able to side step a direct hit.
everyone believes this is their last move with a loss and they are out of options, but I am quite sure we thought they were out of options a few times before and here we are :"still about nokia"
not trying to be the wet blanket here. in fact I have the calendar circled and will be waiting anxiously for the word, but I am also going into this knowing that over the last 15 years I have owned this stock nothing has ever gone the way you expect it to be and so I am going into this very important ruling knowing that we could win and still be fighting it out and vice versa.
wonder what dmiller is doing these days?? we were up yesterday so he was not around rubbing salt in all our open wounds!!!!
sons
this is going all the way! This has been going on way to long to settle now 14 days away.
why would they settle now after spending on the legal fees to get where they are today. makes no sense.
This is going the limit
Guys been tied up and only scanned a few posts and not sure from the tone of the post why we are up over a buck? I would have expected it the other way around
is there a post that will enlighten me or did mickey con all the shorts into covering!!!! lolol
tks in advance
mickey
All dues respect but you have remained a staunch believer that nokia will cave and settle and you have not been right any of those times, so my question to the group was what possible outcomes are there because there is no way NOK gives in here so close to the date. Why do it anyway? You think that did all this to give in a few weeks before? they had many chances to settle and they did not and I don't think they are going to be any more inclined to settle now.
I hope your right, but I don't think this will happen as I am sure they have their moves (though remote or grasping at straws) ready when the decision comes down regardless of how bad or good it may be.
three
That is an interesting question regarding Huawei and ZTE. I guess my thought is that they are joined at the hip and as such I believe that they follow nokia to a decision. While we hated to say it and at times we tended to focus on earnings and new licenses etc, but it has ALWAYS been about nokia whether we like to say it or not and with those others enjoined with them I don't believe there is any courthouse steps settlement for any of them
They will all "dance with the girl that brung them"
Going to be a long 15 days between now and December 19th.
OD
Thanks for the response. I guess I was more interested in are the possible outcomes besides the exclusion order. I am guessing an exclusion order even considering the issues you addressed would still be extremely positive for idcc
just wondered is there a middle of the road ruling that would continue this process for years to come.
thanks
My 3
Hey if it was an easy question I would have posed it to DMILLER!!!! lolololol
Unfortantely I was afraid that was the answer I would get as idcc needs a complete win.
while a settlement may be an option I just don't think nokia will say uncle now. this is going to the end and so lets hope there is a positive outcome for us, but the cynic in me tells me that nokia will figure out a way to sneak out of our grasp.
Doc
MY 3 Sons
This post reminded me of a post I wanted to send out to you, oldDog, GBR and a few others who know the legal process much better then I do.
I have always believed that Nokia will not settle because of what you said here, which is, "it makes sense to nokia". I believe they will not settle and deal with a decision as it has worked so far to date. so on that basis here is my question and if you answered this in a previous post please direct me there.
Are there 3 rulings that can come down or are their different levels of winning and or losing? meaning a complete win for idcc which leads to a ban of their products, but is there a win that is not so final and gives nok another avenue to delay? A complete lost for idcc, but again the same question is there something that allows idcc some hope, and finally a middle of the road decision which seems like that is all we had the last few years that allows both to walk away with some positive and likely lead to more delays.
I realize that some if not all of these are hypothetical as the language that comes from the ruling will allow for different slants depending on your side of the fence.
Just trying to know my escape routes as we have never had a one sided decision that left the other out of options.
I appreciate your thoughts
Doc
he was around a few days ago.
Postyle
Thanks so much for posting the PDF version.
While I realize that my opinion on it is subjected as I have been a long suffering LONG, reading it as objectively as possible, how can idcc lose? To win at every level regarding domestic industry one of such levels was the supreme court.
Certainly I would expect our letter to be written in a manner that makes our case a slam dunk, but as I said, looking at each objectively nokia has been grasping for straws and they appear to be backed against the wall.
that being said, they are a big company that has been able to use the legal system to their benefit in hopes that idcc would give up, settle for pennies on the dollar or maybe if they were lucky enough goes out of business.
Being a long time sufferer of this stock and considering the price action since the blow out quarters there is something in me that thinks something negative is going to drop. I have no proof whatsoever other then the price action that should have had the price going back up into the high 30's if not 40 and here we are testing new lows.
I hope I am wrong and if I knew nothing other then reading this letter I would be resting easily, but that is not the case. I just don't believe nokia has ever been up against the wall and out of options. they always seem to pull another Houdini act.
just my wonderings on a sunny day here in PA.
Sonic
I hear you on the recurring revenues and expenses and for a normal company all of those things are very important, but while important for IDCC as well, I am not so sure that is the cause of the malaise now.
I just think it is all the delays in the litigations, the appeals, reversals etc that has gotten to people and I think other then a few stalwarts I believe people have traded this stock and will risk missing that initial pop when a new license comes down or a win in December in an effort to keep some profits and will only get back in when there is closure to the many irons in the fires.
They risk maybe 4 or 5 point pop by taking profits and avoiding the share price eroding that is going on as we speak
Bull
I am with you on that, but something seems to be up because we gave all of what we made last week on Friday and now we have todays drubbing. You can maybe point to the semantics of the 4th qtr quidance, but would that precipitate a 7% drop? We blew the doors off of the 3rd qtr and we were only up 11% and we went down Friday for no apparent reason and now today on a guidance picture that certainly could be read as positive and we are down another 7%.
What worries me more is that we had an overall market that was slightly positive, what happens if we get a bad day or 2 in the overall market and then margin calls come flying in? Which they will be doing by the end of this week or early next if we don't get turned around.
I hate to sound like DW miller but there is no way being down 6 points since the close on Thursday and not have something going on that is more then manipulations.
I hope I am wrong as with this stock when things are at its darkest there is something positive coming, but the problem is we have not had anything Dark so who the knows.
the problem now is that with that 4 dollar jump last week based on the earnings and a positive conf call, I am quite sure some bought more shares and likely used margin to do so. now we have lost all that 4 dollar increase and another 2 bucks and now you are going to start seeing margin calls the end of this week.
We don't see some stabilization, there is going to be more selling to cover these calls.
my two cents
mickey
while I am no market expert sometimes people take profits especially in this stock as we have all been too stupid to book profits expecting 100 Shareprice mentioned by so many especially you.
why does everything have to be so clandestine?
it was a great quarter but there is still legal unknowns that wont be known for another 6 weeks and you have many longs here who have trading shares that they put some dough in their pockets.
people buy and sell stocks and aren't married too it and take profits when they have a 11% increase
jeff you can be silly!!!
you keep this up and we will call you mickey the second
zip
you beat me to that. was just typing the same question.
How often (if any) does it vary?
Seems to me that the issue in this case is it says that LSI did not make a licensing offer to realteks at all and as such does not have the right to demand an injunction.
I am quite certain we don't want courts deciding on Frand rates, but in the case of IDCC there has never been an argument that nokia wasn't given frand rates to pay.
am I off base here?
I don't profess to understand the nuisances of the licensing or its laws, but reading what Whyte seems we are arguing apples and oranges
i wonder where Hock is as he had a different perspective last week about earnings misses or for that matter earnings that were met?
hock
i am not new to idcc i have owned it since 96 or 97 so you wrong there, and secondly is there an answer in your response?
i think it is irresponsible to make statements like that without any fact other then your gut feel or the hairs on back of your neck.
As i said you may be right and the stock may react as you said, but without an explanation as to why if it happens it will be a coincidence.
You say you dont know where to start to answer my question, seems odd because you came off so sure that you will be correct that answer should be very easy to provide.
My point in all of this is, we get down when things start to turn down and right away the sky is falling and then when things turn up we start talking billions and 200.00 stock price. interesting that mickey is no where to be found. None of it is based on any fact and posts like yours without fact cause people to overreact either postively or negatively.
I guess i will be counseled now that everyone has a right to an opinion, and that you are a wall street pro who has made milloins like dmiller in the market, but i was truly interested in your opinion and you could not come up with an explanation as to why you feel that way other then to try and demean me for being a newbie. Well i have been there for enough (more then 15 years) to see all the ups and downs and no one has been able to predict the activitiy of this stock with any consistency.
hock
based on what are you saying this? The stock has come down 20% over the last week or 10 days. Other then blairs downgrade which after that was fleshed out I believe the stock rose slightly that day.
That is a pretty strong statement that even if we meet or beat it slightly you say we go down? You may be right, but I would be interested in the explanation as to why?
GB
Sorry I just saw your post. I am not saying that at all. We all wear rose colored glasses at time because if we didn't we would have sold at 82 at least twice.
My issues with mickey are that it is not as good as it appears. I would also said it is not as bad as it appears either, but mickey never fell on that side of the process.
What is interesting is that he has not posted since Monday and the sadist in me is wondering where he is.
not according to mickey. He has been saying nokia saw the light and will be bending over backwards to settle and write a check out to idcc for a billion dollars. When the stock takes a haircut like it has the last week or so, all of a sudden he sings a different tune or goes in hiding.,
this is the reason why I constantly ask him to temper his enthusiasm as it only leads to frustration by new owners of the stock.
if they come to this board to read up on what is going on and they hear cheerleading or for that matter constant negativity I believe people overreact.
Nokia was never going to curl up in a ball and give up. No way they do what they did the last decade if they weren't willing and ready to take this completely to the end. No one should be surprised at this latest action
My two cents
I do remember as Data says there was a feeling of positivness with the upgrade from Blair, but what is frustrating about the downgrade now is that i am sure we did not go up over a buck on the upgrade, so the overreaction on the downgrade with no real reason other that uncertainty is bothersome.