Marie Curie 74 TC1
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For retailing companies, apparently it is still going on, if one is
to believe this article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-01/new-study-claims-corporate-executives-intentionally-mislead-investors-for-personal-gain
OTOH, Management is willing to risk their own money
Quote:
The Chairman of the Board, the Chief Executive Officer, and certain other officers and existing security holders, among others, are participating in the Private Placement.
Thus if p3 fails in August, they just lose a lot more money
I loaded up on RVNC @14 yesterday, and I figure my potential profit is many times more than the entire loss of my AUPH position.
Agree with you on all the points. If AUPH result is not good enough
in August, then the stock will be 0 as they have no money. It is
not going to be down -60% or -70%.
IMO, new management have not raised money because they have no choice
but to wait for P2b result to get some decent term
as biotech financing is quite difficult lately (companies have
to settle for low end share price for IPO if they could even
get the opportunity for IPO, private placement to raise
money, etc.).
That said, quite a few think the odds of success are pretty good.
Just don't bet the farm on it.
It looks like a high risk but also high reward bet. It is a prodrug of cyclosporine so it should work
The Feb 8 open label result gives me a little bit more confidence.
It is an 2016 SI biotech charity contest pick by 6 people, somewhat popular.
Ohad Hammer has it in his portfolio, FWIW.
I have a small amount in my portfolio so my opinion is biased.
The ORR (original endpoint) has dropped from 35% to less than 30% in the
FORWARD trial so IMGN has to switch to another endpoint - in this case -
PFS, hoping for a better result.
The market in this case is not confused at all.
TRIL is a great risk/reward opportunity as market cap is around
114M (roughly 15M diluted shares * $7.6) which has 86M of cash
as of 12/31/15
I agree. Ridiculous market cap for a company that does not even have an
IND filed. There are quite a lot of bargains out there, no need to touch
this.
Monday is President Day, a federal holiday. I doubt that the FDA
will do anything on Monday.
Agree. I won't touch BGNE either or even bother to follow it.
On EDIT I will follow it, may consider taking a position if price
is right. Quite a disappointing start to a so called hot IPO.
BGNE seems to do better trading around $28 from $24 IPO (18%).
In contrast EDIT is not so hot 16.77 from $16 IPO (around %5 gain).
Go figure
ABUS aka TKMR surged to almost $30 around Oct 2014. I still follow both
ABUS and ARWR for their RNA interference platform
I was using Cellectis as an example of real threat to Kite, Juno
if (big if) Cellectis works. I don't want to make it look like a
recommendation for Cellectis.
I don't have any position in Kite, Juno either because of their valuation and
it is not clear that it will work in solid tumor. Hematologic cancer
is a very competitive market.
As for Cellectis, there is no data initially so I pass. After that one
case was published, the stock jumped so I decided to pass.
My method of investing is to look for real positive data then wait until
price drops for no good reason. Like now I loaded on FGEN
(thanks to biomaven) and EGRX (thanks to Dew).
In my estimate EGRX can turn a profit this year rare for a biotech and
nothing has changed since the stock peaked in Dec around $105. Below
$70 yesterday, quite a bargain.
The market is not very rational or efficient (just like Dew signature)
It does not save any money compared to the autologous T-cells.
These allogeneic T-cells still come from a donor, it is not really off the
shelf like Cellectis, thus it is not a threat for Juno, Kite, etc.
I have no position in Cellectis because I think it has low probability for success IMO.
Look like GLPG got a better deal than with Abbvie.
Abbvie could not afford to do both their internal drug ABT-494
and GLPG so they chose their own drug ABT-494. Thus they
returned their rights to filgotinib back to GLPG.
IMO ABT-494 is not as good as GLPG filgotinib.
Oops, I meant "BLCM would have been"
BLCM probably will be sued by Astellas if they pursue PSCA as target
The only good thing is Astellas AGS-1C4D4 seems to work in pancreatic
cancer
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23448807
ZS-9 is the only drug without any interaction. Both Veltassa (RLYP)
and the old drug Kayexalate (sodium polystyrene sulfonate) have the
12 hour window mandated by the FDA. RLYP Veltassa and Kayexalate
will have negligible market share. There is nothing else on the market
approved for this indication.
http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DrugSafety/ucm468035.htm
Time to short. Morgan Stanley analyst Berens has a price target for
RLYP of $9
That is not correct, RLYP was not trading at $40 before FDA approval.
$40 was the high around February. RLYP closed around $16 on Oct 21.
After close the FDA approved their drug with black box. The next day
Oct 22 RLYP closed around $11, having touched $10 as intraday low.
Those are the facts.
Disclaimer: I am long RLYP.
In a supplemental filing with SEC form 424B5 regarding the offering at $6
filed on Monday Nov 9,
MRNS plans to develop the IV formulation of ganaxolone for ‘established status epilepticus’ – this means in the ER, before the patients
even go to the ICU.
It is potentially bad for SAGE because it could limit their market size substantially if patients get treated earlier
Development should be quick: “Phase 1 early 2016, Phase 2/3 clinical trial in ESE patients later in 2016?
Disclosure: I am long both SAGE and MRNS
The data looks disappointing enough. 1 PR out of 55 evaluable patients
and the rest a smattering of SD.
Similarly CALA drops 21% today. Again 1 PR out of 77 evaluable patients
and a smattering of SD.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/calithera-present-phase-1-solid-171500235.html
FWIW, CALA market cap is 34M vs AGIO 2.4B
I don't have any position in either company.
In ZSPH 1-yr safety study: ~9% (61/683) pts reached 52-wk
Thus the edema AE 7% will likely rise as the study progresses.
Also ZS-9 has no effect on blood pressure
In RLYP 1-yr safety study: ~64% (194/304) pts reached 52-wk,
it is cleaner and there is a marked lowering of blood pressure.
But I am biased as I am long RLYP
ZSPH has two bidders, AZN and Actelion. RLYP has none
AZN buys ZSPH @90 sh a 42% premium
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/astrazeneca-acquires-zs-pharma-2-094741304.html
I piled in at the open around $10.90. With $7 in cash, there is
not much downside. Mr Market thinks ZS9 from ZS Pharma is better
but I beg to differ. In any case ZS9 PDUFA is May 26 2016 so
RLYP has sometime to make a little money
There is no need to call another doctor. In general, common languages
such as most European or Asian languages have certified translators.
I know of one case of an elderly patient which is a member of
some native mexican tribe where it is impossible to find a translator
of any kind.
Doctors use translation service which supplies a list of translators.
There are two kind of translators:
1) One with certification which is an exam to test the knowledge of
the translator in term of medical terms in both language (English/
target language).
2) One without certification. Here you don't know for sure.
In this case, if your patient does not seem to understand what your
translator is speaking, then it is a good clue to tell the service to
fire the person.
Occasionally in the past I have volunteered my time (although you do get paid if
you work for one of translation service).
Doctors prefer to deal with translators than relative of the
patient for the reason that relative may not be objective and tell
the patient something else.
My read is that Galapagos was a conservative European company that
did both drug discovery and a service division to provide revenue.
May be it is not easy to raise money by selling more shares like in
the US.
Thus they always partner their drug so that they don't have to pay
for the cost of development, and agree to terms that are not so good
but it is OK as they have a lot of internal prospects (at least a
dozen or more, I lost track of their many programs).
Something changed in 2014 where they switched to the mode of drug
discovery/development alone (sold service division). May be they
realize it is better to concentrate on a few good drugs instead of
trying to work on a lot of compounds and see which one sticks.
Also they have quite a few of those compounds returned.
I was afraid that Abbvie would favor their own drug and drag their
feet on Galapagos. I am with mcbio in thinking that there is no way
Abbvie could justify funding both p3 for their drug and GLPG's.
Thus if Abbvie opted in, they would use GLPG drug as a backup, thus
wasting its potential. This way is the better outcome for me.
(I am long GLPG thus biased)
Added more GLPG today. I was surprised at the decision, it was
the best outcome I was hoping for, as the term with Abbvie back
in 2012 was not that great. Now GLPG probably could get a better
deal.
Added MNTA. Same price as pre-approval of Copaxone biosimilar.
Started RXDX. Good proof of concept at ASCO 2015, but price now
came down enough
Started ACAD. Derisked now as NDA forNuplazid was finally filed.
Started TGTX. Low market cap and price went back to before
SPA of p3.
You forget to mention at the lowest dose of 0.015mg/kg it was 7/(58%) .
Look, Irilumab may not be the mildest cancer drug but it is within the
range of tolerable. Currently it is in the effiKIR trial which will have
result in Q2 2016. It has been reviewed by the DSMB 4 times, the last time
resulting in cancelling one of the study arm which was a buying opportunity
to me.
If there was any safety issue, the DSMB would have stopped the study.
The poster was available a while back. Knowing it would spook investors,
I dumped all my shares on 5/28 when it was at 17. I probably buy it back
at sometime in the future.
What happened to the OTC listed GLPYY once GLPG starts to trade?
Does GLPYY convert to GLPG or does it continue trading OTC?
There is also a private Canadian company Replicor that claims a 5 log reduction
with their HBV treatment. However the result is never presented anywhere
to my knowledge so I have lots of doubt about their claim.
I usually do the reverse of Vampire Squid. To be their clients you
need to have asset in the $50M. Thus anything they put out for public
consumption I take it in the other direction. If GS wants to dump stocks
from their client portfolio, they recommend you to buy it. If GS wants
to buy for their client portfolio, they tell you to dump it so they can
buy at a lower price.
I agree although OCRX may not increase 40% right away on the day they announce
the continuation of the trial by DSMB.
If CNAT could increase by 46% pre-market, so can OCRX. Also it looks like CNAT
is slowingly getting back to the 46% gain.
Thanks to Dew for his pick. I got in at 5.3 and sold it all this morning
I have accounts at E-trade, Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, Scottrade and
they have the same rule. You can buy right away with proceeds from
a sale but you cannot sell the new stock until T+3 (settlement date)
of the previous sale. It is an SEC rule
I don't think it is justified. OnCore drugs are all preclinical, not
even p1. Lots of stuff sound good on paper or in test tube, but HBV
is a tough nut to crack. I wait it out until there is some evidence
that this combo approach is working, there is plenty of time.
Many thanks to Dew, JQ1234 and Dough also. Their postings have
greatly improved my investing acumen in biotech stocks.
I also follow their tweets. Great advice. Put many
high paid financial analysts and so called experts to shame.
Happy holidays to all.
Well BLCM gave up most of the first day gain, IPO @19 yesterday
closed @23.88 can be bought now in the hi 19
Waiting a few days on JUNO to get a better entry point
MNKD is on a straight downward slope ever since Afrezza got approved
in late June and landing a partner. Today is less than $7