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All buckled up....waiting for the big ride...actually a smooth ride up and up I hope
-vg_future
Exactly...value! Also, the voucher can be used to speed up one of the other Anavex FDA reviews....that is even bigger when we consider the potential value of the other indication.
-vg_future
Looks like...all the PRs and articles (from the company or third party) are working it up in a way. Also, the initial results from SAVA caused a sell off last year and a second release (re-worked data...maybe not as desperate as Biogen's data) of the data triggered the upward momentum. So, who knows how much confidence they have on the data.
I don't want to complain much since they gave the much needed eye balls and focus on Anavex as well. I strongly believe that Anavex can take it over from here.
-vg_future
More and more the info/PRs from SAVA are looking like pumping...not saying that their drug is bad, but the attempt to keep the price of the stock up is very evident. Anavex purchased $1 million worth drugs (for one year commercial supply for RETT or something else), but I haven't seen Anavex releasing a PR about it...they disclosed it during Q conference calls or someone on this board dug it up from the SEC filings. So, Anavex is very confident as well, so shouldn't we see the stock respond to this info (it didn't even blink when the NEWS first came out). But the analysts are currently doing the dancing around only SAVA...for whatever reason.
Anavex spent money and bought the needed supply...vs...SAVA has an agreement to buy. I think Anavex's action shows more confidence.
JMHO,
vg_future
The run could start tomorrow. Nice bounce for the market and AVXL as well.
nidan7500, the day started pretty strong with heavy volume. If not for the market turning south, we would have been over 14 if not 15. Hopefully, it will be back up over 15.
I am surprised that there wasn't much discussion about what makemydaze posted and potential recruitment comppletion by April 1st.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=162317711
Seems like a good catch. Could give a huge push/boost for AVXL.
-vg_future
makemydaze, that is a very good catch. So, they will be 100% done by April 1st, 2021...just few more weeks. Sounds exciting!
-vg_future
Steady_T, I am happy for you. Not questioning your trading or investing style. Constant daily posts is not useful. I don't think (or atleast I haven't seen) you post that often about your trades.
-vg_future
Yes, well put. It is also dis-heartening (or atleast not so welcome or a good feeling) for long term holders if someone is telling them that their portfolio is going down (granted it will come back up) to catch these trades.
-vg_future
I am not debating COVID stuff here.....I never posted any. I assume it is for general public health benefit, but can't speak for it/them.
-vg_future
Thanks AceT and hnbadger1.
-vg_future
Thanks MayoMobile for capturing the notes. Great nuggets.
-vg_future
Thanks very much AceT. Excellent and valuable updates. Appreciate them.
-vg_future
I see 12.80. I don’t know where you are looking though.
Please check your reality.
As far I know and understand, AVXL is way way underpriced for its potential and more importantly in comparison to peers with lesser potential....it is coming for pennies on the dollar. How about that for reality!
-vg_future
Imagine if Anavex releases some solid PDD data tomorrow.....perfect storm!
A stock with solid fundamentals and HUGE potential.
-vg_future
Well said. Worthless. Anavex is providing valuable hints that are leading to the grand finale...or atleast the first glimpse of it.
Ignore function is great!
-vg_future
nidan7500, it is the step in the right direction. As more data is revealed...it will speak for itself....in volumes.
-vg_future
Take the positive word (STOP) and enjoy how the events unfold.....it is not a "too good to be true" moment.....STOP analyzing everything to death.
I, for one, am very glad that they used the word.
-vg_future
I think we should enjoy/welcome the new Anavex's way of speaking with the assurance that they don't say anything without proof. They are saying potential way...which is perfectly fine. We complained that SAVA got undeserved attention on the basis of very limited data (and a long road ahead) and also complained that Anavex never says much in spite of having the backing of solid data.
Here we are, Anavex has just started doing that and we turn around and worry that they are speaking up a little bit more.
Let's sit back and enjoy!
-vg_future
Agreed on official word. Dr.M is aware of unwanted attention/scrutiny....and hence more value to what the company is saying.
I am thinking about what he said in the CC..short notice and data reveal.
-vg_future
Excellent point! CURE is pretty close to STOPand in some instances (depending on the situation) might be a CURE.
-vg_future
WOW! Really bold claim and to the point. Now, knowing Dr.M's past pattern of not claiming anything unless he has lot of proof to support it...I would say we are very close something really major and significant
-vg_future
Yes, and volume too. More SEC filings or any other info?
Did the stock just jump over 13...another big wave coming?
-vg_future
Like rest of us, he could have bought based on the public info (positive data and confidence from MJFF and TGD's tone). He doesn't need any additional insider info.
I bet SAVA's CEO saw more data and privy to more info and any negotiations/talks/discussions when he purchased the shares than this Anavex's director.
-vg_future
The MJFF info found today might be hinting at soon to be released PDD data and its efficacy. “Works” is an excellent word to sum it up and explain the effectiveness of A2-73. This also sheds light on how TGD was confident about the PDD data during the recent CC.
Thanks George and TTT for the find. Much appreciated.
-vg_future
georgejjl, more importantly, he is the one with the info and talking to FDA. He is not a trader doc...and is 1000% aligned with the success of the company and hence the stock price.
That should sum it up.
-vg_future
boi568, it is very conservative. Also, some of the analysts come with some strategy (or bias)...look at how SAVA was upgraded and how the firm (or related firms) will play a role in the stock swings and any offerings. Not knowing much about this analyst, we can just give benefit of doubt and say that it is just conservative.
-vg_future
Well said hndbadger1. It could be for an immediate launch of Parkinson stuff (since Dr.M said that Anavex might go alone on this...huge market) while RETT is also being launched. I will TGD's word on ALZ trials over the message board opinions any day.
-vg_future
Wow! That's great. Now, a nice PR with more ALZ news or PDD update following this would knock the lid off of the stock price.
-vg_future
Thanks Simonizer. Very well put. The AH action is from usual suspects trying to create the panic where there isn’t any. Hope Anavex releases a PR tomorrow as a surprise and ON SHORT NOTICE.
Sweet justice!
vg_future
Regarding PDD, from the CC transcript...extremely positive comments and additional details from Dr.Missling.
Robert LeBoyer -- Ladenburg Thalmann -- Analyst
Just that had to do with the presentation of the full slide --
Christopher Missling -- President and Chief Executive Officer
All right. The PDD. Right. Yeah, excellent question.
So the CTAD was really focused on the dementia portion of the study, the dementia portion of the PDD study. What is now -- will come up and we will present that in a proper fashion, either at a conference or in a peer-reviewed form or in a webinar or that fashion. We will provide the entire data of all the other measures of the CDR system which are many more than the ones presented at CTAD, which also was a very short time frame of presentation of only 10 minutes, so we have to factor that in and it will also include the actigraphy data and other data related to Parkinson's disease. So this will be something which we are also planning to present on a relatively short notice.
And so in order to have that full picture of PDD and the same applies here, this data, this aggregated data will be put in front of the FDA and to seek guidance in order to design a pivotal study in PDD.
Considering the excitement about data to be released and urgency with which he is meeting with FDA, we can pretty much conclude that the data is great and met the endpoints that were set forth during the onset of the trials.
-vg_future
JJ, yes. Many believe PDD data is good. Only few have been campaigning that one of the end points is not met. Both sides will find out soon. IMHO, we met the and exceeded expectations and Dr.M is positioning us towards approval or pivotal or breakthrough designation.
-vg_future
Thinking out loud. Another reason for limiting RETT SAS to the trial participants could be that...why go through the additional SAS request/approval process when it is GOING TO BE AVAILABLE SOON via PRESCRIPTION or maybe PA (approval?) and Dr.M is very confident about that (knowing what he knows). That could explain "pretty much..." usage in his response.
AIMHO,
vg_future
Thanks Powerwalker. I just checked their website. I think genus the Chairman of the Board. There is no CEO for the company. Company looks like an investing group (Relief Therapeutic Holdings) with some Medical Officer onboard....most likely, they might be finding potential drug candidates and work with them. Huge float (3.25 billion) and half of it owned by institutions.
Now, I have to wonder, if he looks at Anavex from his company’s perspective as well.
-vg_future
Steady_T, yes I know. Read the RETT context of the question.
From the cc transcript...
Ram Selvaraju -- H.C. Wainwright -- Analyst
It's very helpful there. Also, I was wondering if you could comment on the current status of the special access team in Australia and whether you think that that element of the overall Rett syndrome program, is likely to yield usable or significant clinical data that you could use in support of future regulatory applications? And if you could maybe give us a sense of what the size of that program is right now? You know, how many patients are receiving drug as part of the [Inaudible]?
Christopher Missling -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. So the compassionate use program in Australia has the benefit that it allows for patients who are on the clinical study, and after finishing the study on the extension study, and after finishing the clinical extension study would basically be left up without any further treatment. And that allows them to continue the drug with the supervision of a physician and right now, we limit this pretty much to the existing patients which entered our study. And the advantage is that once the drug will get approved, they will be overly automatically becoming eligible then to be prescribed the drug once it's approved for market authorization.
You have to put it in the right context.
-vg_future
Steady_T, that comment about limiting to 21 patients from TGD was in reference to the RETT SAS. So, the one given for ALZ is still different. Another poster, boi568, made a post this morning that it could be inferred to ALZ as well....it is possible, but I wanted to hear any such confirmation from TGD because Anavex’s IR clarified multiple times and in fact TGD also said that it will be available to anyone who (their doctors) can apply making a case....but, they cannot market it like regular prescription.
Regarding the website, folks cannot buy A2-73 from a website randomly.....it has to be obtained through a SAS process. So, maybe Anavex asked them to stop marketing it.
-vg_future
NWDR, I really appreciate your numbers. I wasn't trying to belabor the point and calculations in my earlier post...just adding to see if the potential is even bigger.
-vg_future
NWDR, okay, thanks. I understand that you are doing yearly 24K. I was talking about the EPS (80 cents) which seems like quarterly and the stock as a multiple of that.......@ 20 PE, price of $16
On yearly calculation, the EPS will be $3.20...@ 20 PE, the price will be $64. I think this is what is typically used for company valuation (maybe they will use a lower PE..say 10, even then the price will be $32).
Anyway, I am glad that even at a conservative approach, the price levels that Anavex could reach are mind boggling. Appreciate the numbers that you have put together.
-vg_future
Thanks NWDR. Minor clarification/suggestion...I think. To my knowledge, the valuation of a company if taken as a multiple of the EPS is usually done on an annual level..not quarterly. So, for ex, if you take RETT into consideration, the EPS should be $3.20 (yearly/annual) and not 80 cents (per quarter) as your calculations show. Am I right in my thinking.
I really appreciate the table..very very useful in getting a bigger picture.
-vg_future