I am updating my staus.
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They do take a while... the pps gets a kicking in the mean time - if we can imagine it being worse
rich
Exactly, all baseless. Denying baseless rumours just makes people think there is some fire in the smoke.
As you say, they need to show positive actions - with FY coming up there must be plenty in the locker.
rich
What do you feel the company needs to rebutt? Everything I've read has missed the mark.
rich
Surely, that's just a repost of his earlier one?
rich
Also remember in 2008 they didn't have embedded adverts. Introduced embedded adverts August 2009 and did 12.9M revenues. If they had introduced that at the start of the year it would have netted them 31M.
Pretending that they did have embedded at the start of the year that would be an additional 31M revenue. The costs are trivial $1.5M in 2009 which pro-rata is $3.6M. So that's $27.4M flowing to the bottom line that would have come from a completely new stream which would use exactly the same equipment.
That compares to $26.4 net income in 2008 - so in 2010 the embedded advertising will result in a 100% increase over the net income of 2008 by itself.
If this guy would have allowed for embedded and Airport revenues I would have had more respect. Either he didn't know or he hid it - either way he's not giving CCME an even break.
rich
It was interesting as it shows that dwelling on the negative rumours, say by replying to the critics, as it just entrenches views.
Better to find positives and move on. Also shows that this isn't obvious and the importance of a good IR firm - will they take the advice
rich
CCME: The War on China MediaExpress Holdings
http://chinainvestorking.blogspot.com/2011/02/war-on-china-mediaexpress-holdings-ccme.html
rich
The War on China MediaExpress Holdings (CCME)
http://chinainvestorking.blogspot.com/2011/02/war-on-china-mediaexpress-holdings-ccme.html
rich
The Economist, how firms should fight rumors:
(nicked from CGS)
Denying just gives more attention. You are better off telling new good things instead.
http://www.economist.com/node/18114835?story_id=18114835
rich
Oh, can't read it.
Certainly coal won't be as "hot" as oil or gas. US has such large reserves and they are thinking about greener alternatives.
This is a US incorporated company with political connections (from memory a lot of them seem to have been political types and of course they have Norman Mineta) - I'd think they'll be OK.
rich
OT I've complained about them not supporting Chinese characters (double byte characters for propeller heads - well they were called that when I last looked at it years ago). Stupid as you can see the preview works, just not the final post.
rich
Your question allowed me to learn something new about the company. Any attack along that line is now completely worthless.
Is this the bit that says distributor?
HIFI feast for the discerning music mad I celebrate the small group became a distributor with immediate effect Technica Headset Apple premium reseller in the small shop to buy any Apple iPod, and the low price of 88 yuan to get Technica ATH-C100M Headphones. ??????,??????! Professional audio equipment, create music feast!
rich
Actually, Eading appears to be an authorized reseller (retailer) based on the photos on their website.
That's based on the photos on the website. Why don't they ask them what their relationship is?
rich
I applaud the ability of taking a positive into a negative - honestly deserves a standing ovation. If they aren't going to accept a CFO with 8 years at PwC then exactly what would have been acceptable? Answer, nothing.
The longs like to point out that the CFO has 8 years of experience with PwC. However, this could be construed as a negative. [Edit:Really? Do go on] If I wanted to execute a sophisticated accounting fraud, what better person to hire than someone who is intimately familiar with audit processes and has personal connections within the auditor community? [Edit: Genius]
They could go on couldn't they? Buying 100K of shares could be negative. They could say that now he owns 100K of shares he has more reason to cheat the system and benefit himself.
rich
That sounds about what I would say...
As long as they get near enough to their estimate that's fine - within a million or 2. It's not like were priced for perfection.
Then the auditor and the cash flow remains strong (maybe Q1 may be better for cash after Q4's ramp-up?). And they use their cash wisely - show they are not another Chinese firm that just dilutes.
Approval of Zushima is probably out of their hands?
I think it's all going to be sector driven - but this could be more transparent than most. Should explain what happened to that herb project. Now, can we get them to be as shareholder friendly as CCME!
rich
I thought those snap shots didn't really tell you much? I thought you had to wait ever 2 weeks and get the short position from that?
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=LLEN&selected=LLEN
I should say I'm not trying to put people off the stock. Just know what you're holding.
rich
As long as you understand it's a volatile stock that is heavily shorted.
While you can argue about margin, auditor quality etc - there would be undeniably value in the mines it owns and the new export business.
Only thing I can say is that it will be eventful
rich
Yes, SAIC filings are problematic to say the least. Oh, well.
rich
I've emailed you so let me know if you don't get it.
rich
Not that I'm aware of but there's bloggs as well as published articles so I'm a bit confused about how one finds out - if something is pulled.
He's older article.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/251649-duplicate-red-flags-at-china-mediaexpress-significantly-mismatched-filings-in-china-u-s
rich
There's some of the right age in there - may be it's right but he hasn't laid it out as well as the first time he presented information which looked, on the face of it, fraudulent - he hasn't rebutted these claims even though clearly he has a stage to tell us from.
rich
Well, the responses have been your a liar! I think he should have rebutted why he didn't lie in the last article.
The main points of this article would seem to be:
1) Apollo designs advertising and is not an advertiser
2) Shanghai Apollo's SAIC filings are for no more than RMB 300K - so they can't possibly have put the order in.
3) Show us more advertisers you use.
I obtained its SAIC report from Shanghai Administration of Industry & Commerce in December 2010, and an electronic copy can be found here. The document shows that it reported revenues of RMB 138k in 2006, RMB 248k in 2007 (Page 15, top left) and RMB 58k in 2008 (Page 20, top right).
If you look at the document it has a number of years including at the bottom of page 017 over the stamp 2003, page 016 over the stamp 2004, page 004 over the stamp 2007, then you see the 2007 to 2009 documents. It's a bit odd but it's going to take a Chinese reader to comment on it properly
rich
Saying a company is a fraud is going to get more page hits. I wouldn't necessarily say SA are complicit but they just want more attention to their articles.
If everyone believes that CCME is a fraud then it would be a good time to post an article against that.
rich
Why Old article - Makes sense to me. eom
CCME-Red-Flags: Where Are Your Advertising Agencies?
Early bash this time?
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/482-chimin-sang/137103-red-flags-at-china-mediaexpress-where-are-your-advertising-agencies
rich
CCME-Red-Flags: Where Are Your Advertising Agencies?
Early bash this time?
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/482-chimin-sang/137103-red-flags-at-china-mediaexpress-where-are-your-advertising-agencies
rich
Someone said it's 3 years old as well... I couldn't see a date.
What I was interested in was the fact they thought it was a monopoly - once you have a stand it's yours
rich
Short case is it doesn't mention CCME - but it's an interesting article none the less. I think someone said there's a connection between Towona and CCME?
rich
Public Transport TV Market Expanding in China
LCD TVs (Liquid Crystal Display Television) installed on buses in large and medium cities of China have become a money printing machine, feeding an advertising market worth billions of dollars. The three largest rivals, Towona, Vision China Media and Bus Online, are now competing head-to-head for a bigger slice of this lucrative market.
Cash is king
Public transport mobile TV, or so-called transit TV, is becoming one of the most promising new media channels in China, due to its captive, public and enclosed nature. Similar to other out-of-home TV formats, the advertising value of transit TVs is primarily based on the number of installed TV screens (LCD terminals), which require huge upfront and ongoing investments. Therefore, investment capital would be the decisive factor for companies to develop in this industry, and the big three transit TV players in China have firmly followed this principle.
In February 2008, Towona announced that it had received US$50 million funding from Baring Asset Management. But Towona's major competitor, Vision China Media, had been one step ahead of the game, by listing on the NASDAQ with a US$108 million IPO in December 2007.
So floating the company and raising more capital have now become an urgent task for Towona, in order to cope with the competition. Industry experts estimated that the market value of Towona could potentially be worth US$850 million, higher than Vision China. On the other hand, the smaller rival Bus Online had also received US$30 million investments in December 2007 from CCB International, the investment banking division of China Construction Bank. Bus Online had also partnered with CCTV, China's state-owned television station, to produce a new-generation entertainment platform.
Fighting for terminal resources
Vice CEO of Towona, Mr Cui Bin, and CEO of Vision China, Mr Li Limin, had both expressed the view that the first thing they would do on receiving investment funding, was to entrench and expand their transit TV networks. "Terminals are monopoly-nature resources. Once they are locked-in by one company, it will be difficult for other companies to get in," said Cui from Towona. Normally Towona would sign an 8-year long term agreements with local broadcasting and TV companies with mobile TV licenses. Currently there are about 30 Chinese cities each with more than 1,000 buses equipped with TV screens. Towona claimed that it has presence in 25 out of these 30 cities, and it has dominant positions in 14 cities such as Hangzhou, Taiyuan and Qingdao.
http://chinabizintel.com/industry-updates/public-transport-tv-market-expanding-in-china.html
Lying Short in front of the judge.... may all liars end up there. The amount he hurt investors with his lies. Still, they got him in the end - and we didn't have to wait for judgment day.
Amazing how media is gullible to think the conman "redeemed" himself. He ran a Ponzi scheme. Then he pretended to find frauds. Never did, just more lies under a different banner.
Wonder if we have some more to join him?
rich
YONG - you can never be told your right too many times
rich
YONG - guess I was right, puts down own trumpet
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=59149687&
rich
CCME - with these documents you end up using a third party to get the information. He could have been given the information or he could have made it up - there is no line of integrity from the source to him.
What you could say is that things like "no stamp" would seem to be a cursory test - so either:
1) Incompetent forger
2) Doesn't possess the skills to define a real form from a fake form
3) Accepted a copy of the document data and not the original form so he couldn't verify
All the choices reducing his credibility. How he can talk about the subject is beyond me. Should call them Swiss-Pieces - regular hit pieces with holes in.
rich
Wonder if it's better to just keep producing poor research to keep the levels of FUD up? People just want to keep playing volatility. So what better way then loads of "research" with holes in it. You get the initial drop when short and then you go long knowing the holes will be found out. Twice as much money from half the effort - or no effort at all if you just fake.
Even the faking isn't convincing - you'd think you could at least do fakes properly
rich
He does seem aware that the header was wrong. As he mentions the "erroneous header" on page 1 - it would still be odd that a filing would contain that error. However, if he was going to forge documents why not put the right year?
http://www.scribd.com/doc/48282815/CCME-SAIC-and-SAT-Filings-Translated
rich
CCME I would also urge people here not to get worked up, and start suggesting that I'm sharing my view just to drive the stock down so I can buy it cheaper.
You could have written your post any time after the response. You wrote it at the point of maximum pessimism - during the bear raid just before 1pm.
I guess I could say, if I was being charitable, seeing the stock going down made you more confident in your negative view of the PR and hence you posted - whatever the reason you posted a negative at the most negative time.
Personally, I'm not bothered what the reason was but the timing was, shall we say, unfortunate to say the least.
rich
CCME - yes but he's wasting his breath. VIE don't need SAIC filings to match up. I believe CCME intend to get it right for 2010's report.
The question is how can someone release a piece without the basic due diligence or at least putting the alternative view?
rich
Wouldn't it be nice if people could write an objective piece on SA? Instead of one that has a spin on it?
rich
He is doing a sterling job of introducing all the short points to the investing public one at a time and, in so doing, defusing the Citron piece. He's probably a secret long
rich
LLEN - well, they are looking for at least 500K in 2012 - I suspect if they can do 500K in 7 months they can do a lot more in 2012. To get some love from the market they need to hire a better accountant- I suspect that the Chinese operation will trade at a discount for the time being.
Still, it could be a transparent way of making money. Everyone knows that US has a high reserve of coal and China doesn't have enough coal. Even if it could mine more of it then it won't be of the same quality available in US.
It seems, for now, like an interesting arbitrage. Wonder what the market will think?
rich