Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
OT: "they can always ... vote the bums out"
No. We can't. It amazes me how few people in this country have escaped the manipulation of these duopolists. They manipulate with demagogic rhetoric for punching buttons, then they go about their business after they've gotten what they want from the sheep every 2 and 4 years.
"The bums", are the bought and paid for bums of the current duopolist businesses - aka Republican and Democratic parties. You cannot vote them out of office, they have collaborated to erect competitive barriers to entry that repel any attempt for genuine change agents and meaningful competition to challenge them.
OT: the DC gun deal
Yeah, that's a beauty. Eliminates registration and state-lines limitations, as well as opening the door for unlimited semi-automatics. Just in case you'd like to wield a semi-automatic rifle around the DC environs.
Of all the ironies here, perhaps the largest is that the Secret Service and the U.S. Marshalls were the two law enforcement agencies that refused the invitation to testify before Congress on the matter. (Gee, I wonder where the marching orders on that might have come from). Ironic, because that's who's going to get hung out to dry as soon as a top government honcho gets assassinated. That is if there's anyone left who sticks around to be the fall guy on a job that will be next-to-impossible. So much of how security is handled revolves around fire and reload times and no semi-automatics. Sick though it may be, if the Obama folks manage to win the White House, I wouldn't be surprised to see InTrade put up the over/under on assassination and find it spikes very high.
OT: "California and Florida will not allow offshore drilling"
Well, that's half-right anyway.
And thank heavens we can all count on Reid to push back, should a President take office who tries to cut out-of-control government spending. Much better that we continue down the current path where the Chinese government and Middle East sovereigns can dictate that the US taxpayers open up their wallets and pay them off when their investments go bad. Call me crazy, but if we're going to surrender our sovereignty I'd just as soon they went ahead and invaded and took control of our government. There isn't much question that the Chinese government would do a better job managing the economy than either of the current American political parties.
Excellent point
Feel a bit stupid for not having considered that. Doh! Even from this far away, it's obvious there has been serious jockeying for several years now. You're so right. Jobs is not the only cutthroat with extraordinary narcissistic tendencies and ruthless ego, floating around the executive ranks. Geez, now that you mention it, your characterization as "epic" seems just about perfect.
Not that I'd ever cheer for you to come up empty, but I'm not ready for the Jobs era to end just yet, so hoping the scenario doesn't play out that way. I figure you've piled up a small mountain's worth of gains on the brilliant oil play, enough to make it immaterial whether this one hits or not.
Speaking of which ... we have an interesting phenomenon here with the integrateds trading with oil currently at $105, at the exact same level they were at when it was around $60 a little over a year ago. Do they sit still while oil comes to them, or do they rise to meet $100 oil, do they meet in the middle, or is it none of the above? Curious how you reconcile/read this?
"30% overnight haircut"
OK, I'll bite ... your thoughts on the catalyst?
Granted, I may lack imagination here, but it seems to me there are only two things that could produce something of that magnitude: either a pre-announcement of an earnings miss, or a confirmation that Jobs is ill with something terminal.
Jobs interview upcoming on CNBC
Exclusive interview. But as condition of the interview refused to have any questions regarding his health. He said off-camera (but on the record) that he "feels fine". When asked why he thought the rumors swirled, he "seemed a bit confused, but blamed it on an unnamed hedge fund." When asked why he hadn't done more to set the record straight, he said he'd "done everything he could do."
I'm doing a 180 on this. Either he's being entirely disingenuous in the last claim, and belligerently evasive and vague in refusing to state clearly and unequivocally that he's got no illness, no cancer recurrence, etc. (sorry, "feeling fine" doesn't cut it), or there really IS something wrong and he's covering it up. I thought this was a bunch of bunk. But there is now some doubt creeping in and I've got a gnawing sense in the pit of the stomach.
And here are the headphones
Just like Gene Munster "guessed" yesterday. Looks like Apple still doesn't give a rip about SEC rules.
The headphones are the most important announcement of the day. They are a big fat profit center.
YOUR library
Yep, but in order to do that, it will have to grab a record of your library, send it to Apple, then send you back what it thinks goes together in your library.
As for your reaction, apparently matches that of the live audience, which is largely unresponsive and unimpressed, according to Engadget.
iTunes Genius - Big Brother has arrived (eom)
Good grief - Jobs may be healthy
... but he looks emaciated.
Bull case / bear case
Bull case (highly abbreviated):
* Jobs is healthy. Jobs is fine. As goes Jobs, so goes Apple.
* iPhones entering a 2 year hockey-stick parabola in sales growth, will go from 3% of Revenue to 30% of revenue in less than 2 quarters.
* iPhone halo effect. Sure, the iPod had a halo effect. But for the iPod, iTunes was the only app and there was a Windows version. With the iPhone, many apps will have only a Mac desktop counterpart. iPhone halo effect should be even stronger than iPod halo effect.
* PA Semi goodness is in the oven, goodies coming out of oven soon.
* Touch, touch, touch. All those patent filings are a harbinger of a major new driver of sales, coming soon.
* As soon as the current quarter results are reported next month, the calendar will flip and the FY'08 eps will go off the board and the FY'10 eps projections will go on the board.
Bear case (highly abbreviated):
* Recession, unemployment rising, economy deteriorating. Apple not immune.
* No serious upgrades to anything in the Mac line (just a minor press release speed bump next week or two for the notebooks).
* ATT stores have seen falloff in iPhone volumes the past 2 weeks.
* ATT network increasingly overwhelmed, no comment from Apple or ATT = reduced iPhone purchases as customers wait-and-see
* MacBook Air = low volume semi-dud
* iPod upgrades and updates = serious yawn
* iPod revenue in decline
No soup for you! (eom)
"Is it not possible?"
No, it's not possible. The financials you're talking about were operating with 30:1 leverage. Apple operates with less than 1:1 leverage.
Why is it not possible for AAPL to trade to $25? Because between its net cash (which will be near $25/shr by end of next quarter) and its real estate holdings and the value of its IP, you've got fire-sale liquidation value of at least $40. That's the ultimate backstop.
Beyond that, the only way for AAPL to trade down anywhere near net asset value would be for it to go cash-flow negative. There was a time when that was possible. The fixed-cost base on the Expense side of the ledger was large enough that a variance of 20% on the Revenue side could tip them over. Today, the fixed-cost base is a fraction of Revenue. There's basically zero chance Apple goes cash-flow negative unless it intentionally wanted to. Even then, it actually would be very hard for Apple to go cash-flow negative. Their cash piles up on them so fast these days it's amazing.
You could walk in tomorrow and remove the entire iPod business and the entire Mac PC business and Apple would still be cash-flow positive.
Sorry, there simply isn't a realistic path for your scenario.
Looks like the question you posed
... a while back asking "is the MacBook Air the new Cube?" might have been a bit generous. Or perhaps a bit insulting to the Cube. Looks like the MBA wasn't (and still isn't) ready for prime time. Yet another cautionary reminder about Rev. A.
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/09/08/macbook_air_owners_find_latest_apple_fix_producing_mixed_results.html
Pls take your political issues
To the politics board. Have some respect for the forum Zeev set up here, and have some respect for the rest of us here. There are times politics intersect with markets, and particularly with stocks. If you want to talk about how the results of this or any other election might affect stem cell research stocks, that's one thing. The ad hominem generalized stuff is quite another. Enough, please.
This is interesting ...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHVYf5d9ZG1A
Speaking of SATA2
Why do you figure Apple hasn't equipped iMacs with SATA/eSATA port?
Welcome to the board, randygee
The market and market action reflects the "reality" according to market participants. My reference wasn't to media, or analyst speculation, but to was AAPL's price action. As it turns out though, price action is often reflects information ahead of when the information becomes common knowledge or reaches the general public or the retail investor. Contrary to the quaint notion that an person on the sell side of an AAPL trade must be an imbecilic moron who clearly doesn't "get it," the other side often is a pro with superior event knowledge.
Take a look at how the financials traded on Friday. That price action was telling you something before you could have "known" it. Why? Because despite laws meant to curb and limit insider trading, an awful lot of trading is done on inside information not yet available to "the rest of the market." Go back and check the unusual options action ahead of just about every major acquisition or event-based stock move.
Sometimes the market gets it wrong. More often than not, it gets it right. Still, if you think there's some great revelation coming tomorrow, then you certainly didn't lack for opportunity on Friday and today to grab up some AAPL and profit, right?
BTW, and FWIW, analysts also get inside information. Gene Munster has clearly been told what's coming tomorrow by Apple directly. They'd both have to deny it, if asked, of course, since that would be illegal, but it happens. Munster guaranteed Jobs' presence, he spoke in specific detail about the products, right down to new earphones. No chance an analyst in his position says those things in such a definitive way unless he knows for sure. There's no upside and lots of credibility downside. In return for the favors Apple does him, he's doing his part, getting out ahead of the event and trying to re-cast expectations, spinning it so that market participants should be ecstatic and bidding AAPL up just as soon as Jobs walks on-stage and it becomes clear he's well and healthy, going on further to say that "it doesn't matter if the new iPod is a 5 lb. brick", and that nobody has any expectations for iPod meaning anything to AAPL's financial future, that the next quarter will be judged entirely on the iPhone growth. If you wish to write off Munster's commentary as worthless speculation, that's your business.
Trade 'em as you see 'em. But no need for recriminations of people who see it differently or trade it differently.
OK, I'll stay tuned
A 15-bagger financial would be extremely impressive. Not to sound greedy, but I'm hoping you'll still offer up a few of those small-cap tech winners too!
"Big money ... small-cap high-tech"
OK, it's been a week or two ... looking forward to your top names in "small-cap high-tech" that are going to produce between 10-bagger and 30-bagger returns. I believe you were just finishing up a little homework on that and said you'd get back to us.
OT: Further Fraudie and Phoney fallout
Dunno if I'm reading this wrong, but I think the scope and breadth of Morgan Stanley and Paulson's due dilligence on understanding the Fraudie/Phoney fallout was limited to the major banks, SWFs, and Wall Street institutions. At least that's how I interpreted the part of Paulson's speech in which he served notification on all local, community and smaller regional banks that if they hold enough Fraudie/Phoney paper that today's impairment puts them in the danger zone on regulatory cap requirements, they should call the Treasury to notify them.
If I'm right, then there is a huge flood of smaller banks for which this will be the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. Most people were looking for 800-1,000 bank failures before this is all done. Between IndyMac and the first handful, nearly 1/4 of FDIC's entire piggy bank has been exhausted.
Add it all up, and we could very well see a run on the FDIC in coming weeks and as the dreaded month of October comes knocking, we could be looking at news headlines that FDIC is bankrupt. Naturally, that would require yet another Federal Government bailout, in order to avoid massive panics and runs on the banks.
Would like to be wrong about this, but that's the way I interpreted what I saw from Paulson.
p.s. speaking of a stunning lack of political "dissent," I'm VERY surprised that someone didn't take the opportunity to call for the Fraudy and Phoney execs not to get away with just firing and giant golden parachutes. For the outright fraud they committed in their accounting and SEC filings, these guys should be going to JAIL. Even if not, you'd figure a Dennis Kucinich type would be going ballistic, even if it was only to score cheap political points on some good old fashioned demagoguery. Probably b/c just about every single one of 'em was feeding at the corrupt trough. And both parties were up to their necks in it. Best not to throw stones when you live in a glass house. Mutually agreed upon silence.
"Nice to see an old friend get ahead"
Didn't you mean "Sorry to see an old friend get ahead-ache!"?
Seriously, he will certainly get even wealthier in dollar terms -- no matter whether WM goes belly-up or not, the guys like him always walk away with audacious numbers of millions while everyone else holds the bag -- but what will the quality of life be like when you have to go to work every day trying to figure out how to turn horseshit into ice cream, while simultaneously pushing the giant millstone up a hillside that looks like Mt. Everest?
ROTFLMAO. Yeah, there I go again ...
... looking to overcomplicate the simple and obvious.
To cut me a little slack, GOOG is now at a forward 4 quarter p/e of sub-18, assuming 20% growth. Sure, their business is not immune to economic cyclicality, and ad spends are notoriously fickle in that respect, but they also happen to be standing in front of a monumental secular wave shifting ad spending toward the Net. Doesn't seem to match up against the rest of the market, unless there's something we don't see publicly about their risk and reward profile.
The AAPL haircut makes a bit more sense, an expected response to expectations for this week's event having turned out to be far beyond what Apple now apparently will deliver. The mark-down doesn't seem out of line with the level of disappointment.
semi-OT: maul-a-GOOG continues
Any thoughts on what's happening there?
OT: Any top media markets there?
Depends on definitions a bit, but for all intents and purposes, yes.
The LA market tipped last year. The Miami-Ft. Lauderdale market tipped nearly a decade ago. The Houston market will be next.
As an aside, since you once lived here, you might find interesting to hear that it is becoming more commonplace for ads in Spanish to run on the major network channels during prime hours. A rather surreal experience.
"it works until it doesn't - and then you're dead"
Well said. I think the story you refer to about the central banks and SWFs is only partly right. They didn't want to get wiped out IF Fed/Treasury had to move. But I don't think they would have pushed Fed/Treasury this way, at this moment. In that "negotiation," the Fed/Treasury still held the mutually assured destruction trump card, and Paulsen doesn't strike me as a guy who would blink if bluffed. But WDIK.
FNM and FRE to next-to-nothing while the rest of the financials do a relative moonshot makes sense to me. So does an ensuing collapse of those same financials in a few weeks down the road. The amplitude depends a lot on exactly how much the worst mortgage books and MBSs on the banks books they'll be allowed to slough off on Fannie/Freddie via this new "modest expansion" Paulsen has engineered.
A question for you ... how do you see this impacting oil/gas, gold, US dollar, and other commodities??
OT: on the Phony and Fraudy bailout ...
Be sure to get down to the comments:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/here-comes-the.html
Haven't found a single one
As a reflection of the corrupting of American politics and policy, this marks a new low point.
Incidentally, and along those same lines, how many have you heard utter a peep about the $50 billion bailout GM and Ford now are looking to get?
USB 3 - faster data transfer on the way?
http://www.maximumpc.com/article/features/everything_you_need_know_about_usb_30_plus_first_spliced_cable_photos
Speaking of which ... what's up with the future roadmap for Firewire?
"How a minor storm could bankrupt Florida"
What a pile of crap. Always good to consider the source when you read something like that. Eli Lehrer works for CEI, a "think tank" which fronts for various industry and corporate interests, in this case the P&C insurance industry, which is miffed that the State of Florida stepped in and cut them off from a complete industry-fix rape job on insurance rates. And right now is engaged in a fight to keep a bogus anti-trust exemption from being repealed.
Should set off a red flag any time someone blithely states something as assumed "fact" without any reference, then continues on to rant about the disaster that would ensue.
I wouldn't waste a whole lot of time worrying about the State of Florida pulling a Manhattan and going bankrupt.
Yardeni is bullish?
"All these developments could set the stage for a broad-based bull market in stocks in 2009."
Ed Yardeni is making a big bullish call? I'm shocked. Shocked! Next thing we know, we'll find out the sun is scheduled to rise in the east.
Dot-corn bubble?
"Inshore they are running about 22 feet"
Jim Cantore at TWC just reported that exact same number for a bouy 8 miles south of his position in southern coastal LA near Morgan City. Judging from the coverage on TWC, the max sustained winds reported by NHC are an overstatement and have diminished greatly, and the breadth of the more serious portion of the windstorm is very small.
We now have reporters spread all over trying desperately to hype up that something's happening, when in reality, it's mostly a relatively minor deal. The real damage potential, again, will be in the surge. Hopefully the bullet will be dodged.
A shame that all the buffoon politicians had to try and hype this thing so much. It will make it much harder to get people to evacuate in the future if a truly serious storm heads in. Pathetic to see Ray Nagin back on TV again. Not to be uncaring, but any misfortune that befalls the city of New Orleans by any failing of their own local government, isn't going to get much sympathy in these quarters -- you make your bed and you lie in it. Anyone who would vote that incompetent moron and his cronies back into office deserves to reap what they sow.
"With any luck ..."
Wondering if that luck is beginning to run out ... finally some strengthening, up to 125 @ 4:00 CDT advisory.
basser - indeed, and how!
Now for the good folks all along the Gulf, let's hope Gustav continues to weaken. Latest check, and it's down yet again, to 115. Should be down to Cat 2 by this evening. With any luck, it will move ashore as a Cat 1. Not fun, but not nearly as damaging as what expectations were even 24 hours ago.
Gustav downgraded, continues to weaken
From the verge of a Cat 5, down to a Cat 4, and now mid-level Cat 3. So much for the much heralded super-warm water eddy current heat pool, which it's now passed right through and actually dropped in strength. Seems to be holding 120 MPH max. If it doesn't gather strength soon, it's likely to be down to a Cat 2 by landfall, after hitting cooler waters closer to the coastline.
"During Katrina it ran to $30"
Smells a lot like a pump-n-dump game ...
To set the record straight: IPII reached a historic high of $29.50 on Aug 4, 2005, after having been run up in parabolic fashion by nearly 100% from the beginning of July, 2005. That run marked the blowoff of the housing bubble. Hurricane Katrina did not form until Aug 23. IPII had fallen from that $29.50 high to mid-20s by the time Katrina hit. And continued to fall in the immediate wake of Katrina, during the time the post-Katrina construction contracts were being handed out, and from there on to here.
Meanwhile, the Shaw Group (SGR), which actually was in a position to benefit meaningfully from post-Katrina work, was trading in the high teens prior to Katrina, went on to trade up by double by year's end, and then to continue onward upward.
IPII trading at $30 in mid-2005 was like the internet stocks in early 2000 -- a once in a lifetime joke, inflated on a once in a lifetime bubble. Today it is a company with a $9mm market cap, that is losing money at the rate of $6mm a year, and has burned through all but $1mm of its cash.
Don't be surprised if IPII has filed for bankruptcy protection by this time next year. Its last audit, released in January, included the dreaded "going concern" statement: "describing the existence of conditions that raise substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern." Which is why they've been shutting down facilities as fast as possible to try and stay afloat.
Dell turnaround? Errr, not so much:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDfsBgMm8DOk
Nice move (eom)
Don't keep us in suspense
"So many high-tech companies ... have now cleaned up their act ... over the past 4 to 8 years ... You can make 10, 20, 30 baggers on some of these high-tech stocks over the next 2-years,..."
OK, I'll bite. How about your top 10?
If that's too many, how about your top 5?