Apple Inc (AAPL)

[langostino]

Bull case / bear case


Bull case (highly abbreviated):
* Jobs is healthy. Jobs is fine. As goes Jobs, so goes Apple.
* iPhones entering a 2 year hockey-stick parabola in sales growth, will go from 3% of Revenue to 30% of revenue in less than 2 quarters.
* iPhone halo effect. Sure, the iPod had a halo effect. But for the iPod, iTunes was the only app and there was a Windows version. With the iPhone, many apps will have only a Mac desktop counterpart. iPhone halo effect should be even stronger than iPod halo effect.
* PA Semi goodness is in the oven, goodies coming out of oven soon.
* Touch, touch, touch. All those patent filings are a harbinger of a major new driver of sales, coming soon.
* As soon as the current quarter results are reported next month, the calendar will flip and the FY'08 eps will go off the board and the FY'10 eps projections will go on the board.

Bear case (highly abbreviated):
* Recession, unemployment rising, economy deteriorating. Apple not immune.
* No serious upgrades to anything in the Mac line (just a minor press release speed bump next week or two for the notebooks).
* ATT stores have seen falloff in iPhone volumes the past 2 weeks.
* ATT network increasingly overwhelmed, no comment from Apple or ATT = reduced iPhone purchases as customers wait-and-see
* MacBook Air = low volume semi-dud
* iPod upgrades and updates = serious yawn
* iPod revenue in decline