Apple Inc (AAPL)

[langostino]

Welcome to the board, randygee

The market and market action reflects the "reality" according to market participants. My reference wasn't to media, or analyst speculation, but to was AAPL's price action. As it turns out though, price action is often reflects information ahead of when the information becomes common knowledge or reaches the general public or the retail investor. Contrary to the quaint notion that an person on the sell side of an AAPL trade must be an imbecilic moron who clearly doesn't "get it," the other side often is a pro with superior event knowledge.

Take a look at how the financials traded on Friday. That price action was telling you something before you could have "known" it. Why? Because despite laws meant to curb and limit insider trading, an awful lot of trading is done on inside information not yet available to "the rest of the market." Go back and check the unusual options action ahead of just about every major acquisition or event-based stock move.

Sometimes the market gets it wrong. More often than not, it gets it right. Still, if you think there's some great revelation coming tomorrow, then you certainly didn't lack for opportunity on Friday and today to grab up some AAPL and profit, right?

BTW, and FWIW, analysts also get inside information. Gene Munster has clearly been told what's coming tomorrow by Apple directly. They'd both have to deny it, if asked, of course, since that would be illegal, but it happens. Munster guaranteed Jobs' presence, he spoke in specific detail about the products, right down to new earphones. No chance an analyst in his position says those things in such a definitive way unless he knows for sure. There's no upside and lots of credibility downside. In return for the favors Apple does him, he's doing his part, getting out ahead of the event and trying to re-cast expectations, spinning it so that market participants should be ecstatic and bidding AAPL up just as soon as Jobs walks on-stage and it becomes clear he's well and healthy, going on further to say that "it doesn't matter if the new iPod is a 5 lb. brick", and that nobody has any expectations for iPod meaning anything to AAPL's financial future, that the next quarter will be judged entirely on the iPhone growth. If you wish to write off Munster's commentary as worthless speculation, that's your business.

Trade 'em as you see 'em. But no need for recriminations of people who see it differently or trade it differently.