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Gold stocks holding up relatively well considering continuing market advance. Not sure I like the look of the HUI ST (neutral on it). But it does seem like gold/PMs should catch a bid again if/when gen market corrects. AUY looks decent ST for an entry here.
Copper gaining on worst of the crisis behind us stuff so maybe that's part of it.
Part of me wants to take a very large short here and ride it out. But another part says too much risk of grinding higher ST given how oversold we were at the lows. When not trading well sit on your hands and/or use less capital. I'm waiting again.
Stopped out completely. That sucked. 780 and I'll probably short again, but may wait and see if we go directly to 800.
Hopefully this breaks down shortly....
I covered half my short from last week on the morn dip to 760, but underwater on the rest. Overall ahead on the day due to long positions, but it was a poor entry on my part last friday. Should have stopped out on Friday.
Getting much above 770 SPX should get us to 780 prior to any bigger correction. I think we should top out shortly and may end the day red overall. Either way a deeper pullback before an assault on 800 should occur very soon.
That's a good pt. But again they are effectively an entertainment show. He's had on various politicians and treated them for the most part w/kids gloves. Now in his shoes I might do the same. I'm just pointing out the discrepancy. Again I love the show and Stewart.
I love the show as well, but was actually a little disappointed in Stewart. He's had far worse people on his program where he basically did nothing. I've never seen him act that way before w/a guest. Sure Cramer has his faults, but Jon almost made him out as a scapegoat for the entire industry - not remotely fair imho. Cramer is probably dirty, but in the end he's running an entertainment show.
As you say there was a history that Cramer put upon himself, but again over the last 10 years to put the anger here w/Cramer vs all the other guests? Most who don't understand the markets won't truly get it.
Thanks you too. Probably be a working weekend looking at charts and stuff. Setting up a new iMac (3rd now). Love 'em.
Sold SRS for small loss, but keeping SDS in place. Probably a bit more upside coming, but not sure.
Back in SDS and some SRS (5 x 1 ratio). Going in 1/2 of what I did before. Just got back from lunch and golf lesson. In at 750 SPX. Possible we go up a bit more today or monday, but I think monday will be down no matter what. Not sure if I'll stop out or just add more if we go higher.
Possible HUI 295 before turning down. Hard to say. May correspond w/gen market heading down.
(edit) A bestseller...."How I Made 1% in a Day, and Then Went to Lunch"
Out of SDS now as well. Look to reenter maybe later today. Probably selling way, way too early.
(edit again) Sometimes you have to force yourself to make good trades. Risk/reward wise ST it looks like a good entry. Also if the markets continue higher over the next 2 weeks gold should come under some pressure. Although I expect the Dollar to weaken if the gen markets head higher so gold may just tread water or gain w/gen market. I think on a pullback FXC, FXA look good again. Rally w/gen market/energy and cheap risk/reward wise as well. Favor FXC short term. Made some money from yesterday in these today, but looking to add more when SPX hits ST bottom. High % gainers they are not, but safety wise they are nice. My kind of trade. Volatility is less so I can take bigger positions and scalp away. FXC is almost to buy zone again. Maybe .20 away.
Selling SRS now. Today is really just making up for previous bad entries around 700 to 710 area. But hey it helps. At least I was smart enough to stop out previously. I think 780-800 looks doable in gen market in the next 1-2 weeks. Beyond that hard to say.
Taking half profits in SDS as bottom of channel hit and going to lunch.
I may join you in the gold short. But will probably give it a bit longer. Maybe later today and smaller GDX position vs GLD. See last msg. Took SKF profits already. Down to SDS and SRS.
Channel
5 fives up and resistance at 750 area caused me to go short again. Right now powerful move of the lows so will be taking more profits at channel bottom again but might let some SDS ride a bit longer. I still think gold has more consolidation. I'm guessing short?
Fully out of SKF. I'm a chicken shit. Profits a profit though. Added .3% to PF due to SKF. I'll take it and run.
Taken partial profits already on SKF and SRS. Too fricken volatile not too. Sorry for the noise.
I'm fully hedged here w/shorts taken again between 750 and 756. Does look like there's more upside though in the gen. market after a pullback. I'll be buying energy and maybe a few others. Not sure yet. May be content to buy some energy and then short when gen market tops out IT/ST. Have SDS, SRS, SKF in that order of size. Maybe just a daytrade. Bottom of channel on around 742 right now on SPX. Might be content w/that. W/it rising maybe 745. However, I'd be somewhat surprised if we don't dip deeper in the next 1-3 days.
This is a good site for ordering. Back in the fall premiums on gold coins at one pt hit 10%. Right now we're still around 5-6% holding steady since that time.
http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html
GTU/CEF premiums to NAV were quite high recently, but I haven't checked them since the correction from 900. My feeling is gold probably has more to correct ST/IT, but much of the froth has come out again.
OT - Matrix runs on Windows
No, thanks for pointing that out. I guess I'll have to look at GDX and other issues to see if it's confirmed there as well.
Looking like 1 more wave up to complete the ST. Target area still appears to be around 740-750.
Gold stocks doing well today, but I'm still skeptical ST that we've found a decent bottom.
Looking like this might have some legs. Out of all the shorts. Probably a mistake ST, but it was a mistake shorting so close to the lows w/out a tight stop. Still think there's more pullback prior to more upside, but will likely buying vs trying to short this ramp.
I should have been looking at least at 60 min charts before my entry. Paying for my rashness.
I suspect we hit the top of this channel at the least. Where we go from there is hard to tell right now.
Yea, I was thinking GE was good for a trade and I missed it as well. Easy to overtrade in this market as you've seen from me this morn.
(edit) Yea I was much better positioned for this yesterday. Such is the market. Underwater on my ill-advised shorts at this pt. Willing to see how 710 is handled. Looks like I might be willing to just get out even w/all my fingers. Ramp to 740 area in the next few days? I've got jury duty tomorrow so I'll be watching but not sure how much I'll be able to trade.
I did exit most of my gold stuff pretty well on the plus side. I'm still within a few % of my all-time best so I'm in a decent mood overall. Now we get to buy gold stocks cheaper again the next few weeks/months. Looking forward to picking up some physical silver.
I do have two energy positions, but I smaller than I'd like if this is for real and half of what I had yesterday. No XOP. Would have been nice 5% today.
Took position in SDS w/SPX at 699. Risk/reward just looking for a pullback to 690 ish before resuming higher (assuming ST direction is up).
Sold DZZ. Will wait to see if we close the gap to buy back or reshort gold. If we go lower first I'll be shorting on strength (or buying DZZ). Very tempting to short a little gen market stuff this morn as we should go down at least 1% from the gap open, but dangerous to short after being so oversold.
Breaking thru channel now. Could stop anywhere between 700-740 area.
Ok, did short some GS at 80 this morn.
Very, very ST trade most likey. Neckline breakdown at 80 on daily chart.
Bullish sentiment on gold - or lack of
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7BA6AA73CD%2D45EB%2D48D2%2D93F4%2DB86D4C5EE2AD%7D&siteid=rss
Surprised me. Will have to look at premiums on CEF and GTU tomorrow morn if possible. Maybe we're closer than I think.....nah.
Risk/reward wise DZZ or short GLD seems pretty good here. ST trade of couse. Short GTU or CEF might be better and premium should decrease but no shares to short (probably not allowed).
5 min SPX chart
Most of the times this would break higher out the channel. If only these were normal times.>
Out of most energy positions now. Cash pretty darn high. No shorts either. Waiting game.
I'm thinking at least sub $900 probably 850-875, but I could see lower prices. No need to get ahead of myself. Will rethink targets once we start going below 900 again.
Still a chance for markets to save themselves, but can't go much lower. Partially stopped out of XOP here.
As always there's a big difference between the stocks and the underlying commodity. I think like yourself it's probably too soon to accumulate oil IT/LT, but some stocks look good for ST/IT and maybe even LT at these levels.
What do you like in energy if you feel like sharing?
Does seem more and more like gold is going below 900 at some pt in the IT.
Picked up some XOP. Looks like more rally to come to relieve oversold condition. ST rally only. UNG also looks decent for a very ST trade at 16. Need to break back above 686 SPX. Falling wedge on 1-min chart. If it breaks down I'll be out again.
Barely holding here. Decision time at 682/681
As you know I'm a deist. What that means is somewhat open as many deist think differently.
In case you haven't looked I think it's compelling, but if you look at it from the view that the bible is always right then you'll never change your mind.
http://www.deism.com/bibleorigins.htm
I'm open to the Bible, but I don't think the reverse is true w/yourself (and many like yourself)
>> 4. The Bible does not say whether we are "alone" in the universe, but inferring from Scripture (mostly from God's reasons for creating man and the universe), I conclude that we are "alone". I use "alone" in quotation marks for of course Scripture tells us that there are myriads of fallen angels who followed Satan in his rebellion against God, and twice as many holy angels who remained faithful. Angels neither die nor reproduce, so their number has been and always will be exactly the same as when they were first created. <<
I can't go along w/that. Not just the solar system, not just the Milky Way, but the entire universe just for us? That more than anything doesn't pass the smell test.
I do appreciate the feedback and will look into some of your suggestions at some pt.
Lastly on this:
>> I completely rejected the theories of evolution even in my college days, believing that they defied all logic and rules of scientific evidence. <<
Science today is not the same science as 20-30 year ago, let alone 50+ years ago. Computer modeling, the internet and more scientist in general have completely changed everything. There are so many overlapping fields of science w/respect to evolution. You can look at bones, but you can also look at DNA/RNA and other structures w/the cell. Only 4% of our DNA is different from chimps and you don't think 4% of our DNA could change over several million years+? We evolving right now. Pick up the latest issue of Discover mag. They've studied the last 10K years. Interesting stuff if you truly have an open mind. I don't question your sincerity. But again it's my contention that we're in this mess as a species precisely because religion has outlived it's usefulness. We need to start promoting thinking again. Most of our issues are solvable, but it'll take an educated public. There are far too many who believe we're living in end times. Why bother trying to protect the planet if the rapture is coming. Sorry I just can't get behind that.
Great. I've got jury duty that day. Thanks a lot.
So is my timing getting more "normal"? I was short GS and had SDS as well today. Both small gains especially compared to where they are now. Entered two oil positions 2 days ago - too early. Cash is looking better and better each day.
Markets at the lows and gold and gold stocks hanging in there. Took off GDX for a very small loss.
I don't think gold or gold stocks are done consolidating yet. However, nor am I going to press a losing ST trade.