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He also used Goliath's own sword to lop his head off. Stupid nephilim never learn.
It's a clever allusion to the WaMu situation to say the least. I'd be very curious to know as to where to idea for a Solomon bank being birthed from the WaMu/JPM merger comes in. Is that a guess, or is that an observation of something I've missed.
"So what happened to Goliath after he slaughtered all those people? Well David uses his slingshot, a damn fine one at best!"
"Highly unlikely" says it all doesn't it? They couldn't say "They'd have been unable to" anything. The key will be the 20 billion in FSB they were in the process of moving to WMB. It didn't just negate a 16 billion dollar run but it also added 4 billion in cash.
On top of that a week later the bailout was passed.
This was on top of the fact that the bank had been targeted by naked short sellers and was left off the "No short list" despite requesting and practically begging to be added.
We've all seen reports of the FDIC strong arming the OTS into seizing the bank, despite its solvency. The fact that it eas solvent and pushed into insolvency by the seizure is the reason we're all here.
It was the actions of the OTS in seizing the bank and the FDIC in selling for peanuts that caused this crisis to begin with.
"Highly unlikely" just showcases the fact that the OTS didn't know what to make of the situation. When it's revealed that they ignored the impending move of transferring excess funds from FSB to WMB so as to justify the seizure the whole thing will be viewed as a major scandal.
A settlement will be reached or this will all come to a head in court. It's all up to the FDIC and JPM at this point. Lets see how stupid they really are.
Oh OK... so there was 20 billion and you want 4 billion more and you can write those loans up for no more than a 2 billion loss anytime you feel like it...
Hehe... what a joke.
It's only a matter of time. The OTS and FDIC will be punished for this, even if it means handing their authority over to the Federal Reserve... which I might add is the WORST thing that can possibly happen. But if that's the plan, and it looks very much like Dimon as the next Treasury Sec and the Fed overseeing this sort of affair is in the works, then WMI will simply be used as an example as to why the OTS and FDIC can't be trusted and JPM will look like the victim, unaware and on the hook to rectify the whole mess.
JPM then gets a Goldman Sachs like hookup in the TS position who in turn rewards them for their willingness to cover his butt by settling with WMI.
Lets see how this all plays out.
Regardless, the OTS' own words "highly likely" showcases their inability to justify their actions beyond that of speculation. An overseer surely needs to be able to do more than guess as to what's coming in order to justify their own jobs, let alone persecuting those whom they are supposedly watching over.
"Given the Bank’s limited sources of funds and significant deposit
outflows, it was highly likely to be unable to pay its obligations and meet its operating liquidity needs."
The WSJ is planning on doing more write ups on WaMu, and soon. I know this first hand. Something is going on.
For several reasons, this actually is a poor example and isn't comparable to WMI and/or the chances of us getting an EC.
This thing is dated the 25th and it is requesting the Judge denies the motion. So it's not concluded and yeah, it gives insight into what Akin's letters look like, but it's silly because it doesn't actually mean anything as far as precedent because we don't know how she will rule on it.
This document was filed one month after the claim date ended.
"The Ad Hoc Shareholders’ Committee’s request for the appointment of an official equity committee is inappropriate at this stage in the Debtors’ chapter 11 cases. As previously stated, the Bar Date in the Debtors’ chapter 11 cases passed only a few weeks ago and, while the Debtors and the Creditors’ Committee are working diligently to analyze the universe of the claims filed, it will likely require several more weeks to conduct an initial analysis of all claims."
WMI has a much greater understanding of the claims against it. This is implying they need several more "weeks". WMI is many "weeks" from the end of the bar date.
They also have litigation for billions which is technically considered assets of the estate which is not required to be filed on the MORs.
This document implies that "book values" are out the window for trying to decide if an EC should be qualified. Looking beyond the simple book value of assets, WMI IS about to come into an influx of cash which is a direct asset that will bring them very close to a balanced Asset to Liability ratio.
With NOLs, tax refunds, the 4 billion in play, etc etc... this is a completely different beast.
All that having been said, even if the trustee denies the motion, he's taking it seriously this time, which he hasn't in the past... which implies that something has changed. That in itself is good news.
Judging by your own statements about this bill being anti-EQ, how do you rationalize that they're somehow pro WMB?
One could easily assume they're just looking to see how to get out of giving them a dime...
Ya know, just to play devil's advocate.
Looks like they could be really digging in deep and exploring every way possible to keep WMB bonds from seeing a cent of cash.
I don't believe that's the case.
Just saying...
"There are more references to WMB bonds than that ( a lot more), but imo, many of the referred to proposed settlements have to do with WMB getting a nice chunk of the NOLs and refunds , and like I have been saying, when the FDIC pays up, the Washington Mutual Bank bondholders will indeed be smiling."
In almost all possible scenarios this would be a complete contradiction.
For the creditors to "win" they wouldn't take a haircut, and as such by your own definition, equity then, wouldn't be toast.
If the creditors LOSE, then equity is toast.
In reality, not you, nor I, nor anyone else knows how this is going to play out, who will win, will lose, if everyone won't win, to what degree they'll win... etc etc.
We know the order of priority. We know WMI's claims against JPM and the FDIC. We know there's an attempt to get an Equity Committee involved.
I'm not comfortable assuming my shares are going to make me rich anymore than I am believing "equity is toast". I know what's right and I hope to see the rule of law rectify the actions of those who have stepped in and trashed to the law for the sake of the few.
I'm rooting for everyone to make out just fine, even certain notorious bashers.
It's like free speech. I don't root for people I agree with to have free speech and for those I disagree with to be shut up. That's a dangerous and contradictory process of rationalization.
What's right is right... and in a best case scenario we know what is right. Rooting for the chain of priority to stop with whatever it is that we individually hold is no different than reserving the right of free speech only for those with whom we agree.
What I do know is that I don't want the government to decide it's OK to steal private property without any inkling of payment, because that negates the US Constitution. Once you go there it opens a can of worms that can and will devastate the entirety of how this nation functions.
Admitting what we don't know is just as important to the integrity of discussion as is admitting what we do know.
Creditors "winning" has absolutely no bearing on equity beyond that of in order for equity of WMI to win, creditors of WMI have to win as well.
I'd hate to be holding nothing but WMB bonds if they kinda sorta win and are paid .50 on the dollar when preferred equity of WMI is paid in full. And that's just as much a possibility as anything else presented by anyone else.
Admitting what we don't know is just as important to the integrity of discussion as is admitting what we do know. Picking fights and screaming about who's holding a better hand really does little to grow useful knowledge used to make educated decisions.
The way the bonds are trading it seems to be an almost forgone conclusion that WMI bonds will be paid in full... WMB bonds on the other hand, not so much.
With the lawsuits, NOLs, Tax Refunds, etc etc... all in play, I'll gladly ride it out with what pref shares I bought a year ago. I don't know how it'll play out, but I only invested what I could afford to lose and as such... I'm still feeling pretty darn good with my holdings up hundreds upon hundreds of percent.
And I'm absolutely shocked the Ps are sitting around 23 and Ks in the .60s. The commons are suspiciously low to have the prefs hoovering where they are. I could only laugh watching as the Qs broke the "walls" of support at 12 and 11 today. It takes 5-10xs the volume to bring them up that much.
So... on this Thanksgiving Eve I'll thank God for all He's given me. I'll thank Him got allowing me to post my rantings and ramblings here. And if it happens to be His will that I make out well with my core holdings in WMI, so be it.
Enjoy your families, loved ones, and your food...
Be safe in your travels.
Thanks to all of those that have contributed here over the past year... including some of those with whom I disagree with on many of their posts. At one point or another, we were all on the same team... trying to wake people up to this disaster.
In the end I suspect that many of us that have been here for the past year will remember those days much more fondly than these meandering, feuding, backbiting times.
Here's to ALL of you...
"Please be advised that if any of the creditors are taking a haircut, then the equity is TOAST.
Don't worry, the creditors will win, and the equity holders will lose."
http://www.allbusiness.com/glossaries/g-type-reorganization/4946404-1.html
G-Type Reorganization
a transfer by a corporation in bankruptcy of all or part of its assets to another corporation, but only if stocks or securities of the transferee corporation are distributed to the shareholders tax free or partially tax free.
Looks to be in direct correlation to the worthless stock investigations all over that page also included on the same line item...
Those are more than likely WMB subs that are now worthless to WMI and as such they're looking to see what the tax implications are.
"Discussion with Kelly Green re 597 Election, conference call re Evaluation of 597 Election (and worthless stock deduction and NOL), review abandonment regulations for worthless subs."
If they can get any refunds/deductions based on abandoning "worthless subs" that have now gone to JPM I hope there are thousands.
Funny thing is, even if WMI owns worthless subs they wish to abandon, so what... Like you said, how many? One, two? What are the subs worth that that aren't worthless?
It's easy to murk these discussions up with "What ifs" and/or question marks that are nothing more than just that.
If I scroll down the page I also see "Determine tax status of major acquisitions".
What major acquisitions? Should I assume they've made or are about to make major acquisitions? No.
What about "review regulations re tax-free mergers on stock basis." Should I start pumping my fist thinking a sweet merger is coming? No...
These items all have to be taken in stride with the understanding that no, we don't know the specifics and there's very little we can infer from most of them.
I never insinuated in any way shape or form that WMI has so much as even implied that the shares will be canceled.
And anyone can debate it all they want. I know what I read. Sadly, I've been through so many documents I can't remember squat going back that far as far as what was where.
I don't expect you to trust me. If I happen to come across it I'll post it for you. But it's not a big deal. They either win back some money/assets, settle, or we're screwed. It's that simple.
"Until WMI issues a public news statement saying there will be no recovery for the commons or that the commons will be canceled then I agee the issue is up for a fair debate."
http://www.weil.com/talsapeika/
Yes they have and no, I don't remember where it was but it was early on. I used to have a file full of docs that I kept by date but since my HD crashed I no longer have an archive of the files and I don't really have the time to go back and find what I know exists anyway.
You don't have to believe me.
This isn't insider information because it was already publicly stated.
Yeah, the rest is correct. It's obvious, as things currently are there's nothing for equity, but that can change.
There are no current plans to cancel shares, but there's no money for them either.
And yeah, she made both comments.
There's an investors hotline number you can call and Tal appears to handle all such calls. Between Tal and Bopfan we knew the roundabout date that claims against the FDIC were submitted.
Tal isn't giving away insider information, but only stating things that can be found in the public domain. It's extremely expensive too call her too.. we've seen it show up on Weil's billing a handful of times. (Some of which validated the fact that Matt did in fact call her as the dates of his posts matched with the dates on the filings)
Which viable plan was that again? The one you cooked up in your head or is there one in the documents you've been posting from all night that we've somehow missed?
Last I checked there are tens of billions in lawsuits floating around including the copyright infringement one that and could only benefit WMI.
It's also pretty cool that you've decided they'll lose all the NOLs generated by WMB.
Gotta love the professionals here that should just be professional advisers on all things. They show up to play the expert role on all things as if there's no reason for an expert evaluation right on down to letting us know what "the plan" is and how it will play out.
"The viable plan will benefit creditors and not shareholders, and that is the beauty of bankruptcy from a company's perspective."
Again your point is what exactly? Anyone that's done any DD knows JPM is entitled to SOME of the tax refund money.
And they have to talk to JPM because there's an overlap as far as who owned what when. The bank wasn't exactly seized on "Tax Day".
I know you know this stuff so still trying to figure out why you feel it's earth shattering news. The only people that would so much as flinch while reading it haven't done proper due diligence.
The worthless stock thing has been in countless filings and is more than likely in relation to the "WORTHLESS STOCK" they own in WMB and how they can use it as a deduction.
"Conclusions relate to availability and timing of a worthless stock deduction."
We can review the timing... Do I really need to go back into countless other filings with similar content to show you this has been something that's been ongoing for a year and nothing new? regardless of what you are insinuating is somehow "timely"?
I know you've seen similar language in oodles of the docs before so I don't know why all of the sudden you feel it's timely, nor do I care.
They're prepping the tax returns and looking at using the loss of the value of their WMB stock as a deduction.
The way patents work is simple. You patent the idea so that if anyone wants to do something similar in the future WMI will get paid for it.
Are you implying they foolishly wasted money on patents specifically designed to gain payment from JPM post seizure and as such they were a waste of money?
The patents were filed on 2004 and there's really no way of knowing how much, if any capital was generated by them or how much, if any will be generated in the future.
Some here have very creative, yet naive ways of twisting things around to suit their own agendas.
"Do you think it was money well spent for them to obtain those patents and re-design the branches? Do you think they will get money from JPM for patent infringement related to those patents?"
As someone else already stated... even without a settlement or a conclusion to this mess, this could simply be someone wanting an option to get out when the price goes up AFTER we get some substantial news or rulings.
It could also be someone wanting to dump for tax purposes or just to get out now while there's anything left.
As you stated, only they can answer that question.
Funny how some people provide all the answers under the guide of "Do your own DD or figure it out for yourself as if the handwriting is on the wall... when in reality they're just as clueless as anyone else in the matter.
If I held restricted shares I'd want the ability to get out at will. But that's just me.
"No one really knows what it is about... It could be anything from them wanting to "get out" once that settlement
is finally offered with profit to them wanting to "play" the ups and downs here.
Only the person(s) requesting this can answer. I couldn't see anyone with billions invested would be happy with millions with the possibilities we have here!"
Anything with a settlement value is for all intents and purposes considered "an asset".
Here's an example or two that aren't specific to our case, but show such claims are in fact considered assets of the bk estate...
Because workers’ comp claims have settlement value, these claims are considered assets for bankruptcy purposes and you and your bankruptcy lawyer need to be able to make a strong argument that your on-the-job injury claim is an exempt asset, protected from creditors and the Chapter 7 trustee.
http://www.atlanta-bankruptcy-attorney.com/bankruptcy_and_georgia_workers1.html
Failing to advise that if plaintiff filed bankruptcy during the pendency of the wrongful discharge claim, the claim would be an asset of the bankruptcy estate to be controlled, acted on and finalized by the bankruptcy trustee...
http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/scripts/getcase.pl?court=mi&vol=appeals\082099\4910&invol=2
I had many more specific examples back in the day... but I've been through 4 hard drives in the past year and I lost the bulk of my research/bookmarks. So that's all I could dig up in a few minutes. Maybe someone else that cares to look can find better examples to show the others that it is in fact the way this works.
If someone were to buy out WMI, they'd been able to carry out the litigation... So it's not tangible like a house, but it is property of the estate.
I don't trust everything Bopfan says as gospel, but from what I've found... it very much syncs up here and I'd like to think it would be difficult to justify to a judge what the rush is to wipe out equity with billions upon billions upon billions of claims pending.
Absolutely and it was echoed with Tal Sapeika from Weil as recently as August 5th (ish).
The following was posted by Matt2216 on "another" board which Ive had posts deleted in the past for linking to, so I won't. I'm sure you can find this is you search for it on your own.
Matt has a proven track record of being on the up and up. He's clearly been in contact with Tal in the past and he's the one that made it a point to call the court to dispel the 72 court clerk rumor last week.
"Question 4- Cancellation of equity- No plans to do so. No plan has been formulated so no plan to cancel equity is on the table.
BTW, she reiterated that at the current time she did not expect equity to see a recovery. I wanted to clarify this. I stated that what she was saying was that as things stand now, A<L, equity does not see a recovery, but if the litigation and or settlement is successful that it would change everything to which she responded "yes". I just wanted to clarify this for those bashers that key in on that statement."
These are hypothetical statements based on current standings/knowledge. "No plans to cancel equity because no plan... at all exists as of yet". "Not expecting recovery for equity" because it wouldn't be prudent to go around saying things like "WE EXPECT BILLIONS IN RECOVERY" because if people invested based on such a statement and it didn't happen you can bet your last penny that someone would wind up suing them personally.
But as Matt made clear, neither of these statements is set in stone right now and we can't/won't know anything for sure until we see money/assets transferred back to WMI that rebalance the As and Ls or a plan for reorganization isn't just put forward, but has been approved by the Judge.
Bopfan has made it a point to state that there's little to no chance a judge would ever allow equity to be wiped out with this kinda of litigation with the potential for this kind of equity is still on going.
I've done enough research to know that the lawsuits and claims are legally viewed as "assets" which would also indicate the same. As far as the judge is concerned I can only ASSUME that even if come March or some later date, should WMI still be trying to get their cash back and or assets and other damages without the As=Ls or As>Ls it would still be unlikely that the judge would allow equity to be wiped out, even if WMI wanted to.
At the time I was worried that there could be collusion between WMI and JPM/FDIC to keep the money with JPM until equity could be wiped out, hence... they let JPM hold onto it without much of a fight for so long.
That's why I spent so much time looking into it and as such is why I don't believe that equity is in much if any danger until most of if not all of the litigation has been completed.
I don't know how/why it's become a crime here to mention the possibility of equity being wiped out or that we may not prevail to a degree where we'll recover enough in a discussion about "being careful" when making assumptions here. But that's all I've done and it's all I've ever tried to do since day 1, in that I try to be as realistic as possible. If that means exploring the ways we can get screwed, so be it. It comes with investing in a bk stock.
Anyone that refuses to admit there's at least a small chance of "no recovery" or "equity being wiped out" isn't being intellectually honest with themselves or with you. That's my personal belief.
I've said all that I can and I'm not going to FIGHT with you guys anymore as that's not why I'm here.
A handful of you know who I am and how much time and effort I've put into trying to get the word out about this nightmare. The rest of you, or at least a bunch of you are so jaded from the constant bashing that you can't even tell when someone is just trying to be honest with you anymore.
And for the record arguing that someone that arrived 3 days before me and so they have a better memory of these things is somewhat silly.
Maybe some of his DD wound up in the Texas Action. Maybe not. But some of mine did... verbatim.
I'm sure he's got a much greater understanding of the legalities of some of this stuff than I do. But as memory and DD, I think a multitude of us are all on par with one another, even if we only remember different bits and pieces, some overlapping and some not overlapping with one another.
That's the beauty of message boards. None of us knows everything. We all bring something different to the table.
"Are you sure it was WMI that issued the statement and not the FDIC?
Mordicai has been posting here since Sept 27, 2008 and he doesn't recall any such statement."
Sounds like JPM knew they had to NOT infringe upon that patent, hence the rush to remodel the WaMu Branches they "bought".
They never came right out and said it though, probably because they had no intention of giving up the name.
Right to hold the legal title (ownership) to an asset or property. A lender holds a legal estate in the asset mortgaged as collateral, while the borrower retains only the right of redemption. A trustee holds a legal estate in the trust assets for the benefit of its beneficiaries.
http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/legal-estate.html
Estate may also refer to all the possessions which a guardian manages for the ward whose protection and administration of affairs they are responsible for. It may also mean the assets a conservator manages for a conservatee (a person whose physical or mental lack of competence requires administration of his/her affairs). Another usage of the term estate refers to a class of real property interest, such as "life estate," "estate for years," or "real estate."
http://definitions.uslegal.com/e/estate-law/
Your guess is as good as mine. I can't find anything more specific.
I can see it either way. As I've learned time and time again here, my definition of things and the legal definition of things don't always sync up.
I didn't assume from the get go that "Estate" meant us as I was thinking more along with property, assets, subs... etc.
But for all I know you could be right.
The bottom line is, anything they get back ups our chances of getting paid. If the value of the estate reaches par and goes green, then we're in good shape.
But I really don't think the legal team was saying, "Hey, we're gonna clean house and make shareholders wealthy". The tone was more about the brevity of the situation and their belief that they will claw back as much value for WMI as they can... To what extent, no one knows.
Initially JPM agreed to give the money to WMI and the FDIC came right out and said if JPM doesn't keep it, we'll take it in case we have claims later.
I believe there were negotiations going on and WMI knew that if they tried to take it, the FDIC would have swooped in and grabbed it. They needed to go for SJ to have the Judge, by court order... override the FDIC.
I think that she would have tried to rule until JPM said "Fine... take it" and then the FDIC got in the mix. This kept her from making a decision long enough to muddy things to the point where expedition would take a chunk of time to sort through.
We can all speculate til we're blue in the face, but for some reason WMI allowed it to sit there. I now believe it was to keep the FDIC from just grabbing it from them the second JPM handed it over.
Have you any idea how many lawsuits JPM is dealing with right now? They either know the law and don't care about it or don't even care to know it at all because the penalties are always manageable.
In this case the FDIC is on the hook for a lot of the pain, so I tend to believe they know they law... and they know how to manipulate it to their will to get what they want and make the pain manageable.
The longer they can drag this out, the more manageable it is. They'll be repaying us with our own money and own the banks and assets forever.
Without a criminal investigation (which I don't believe will ever under any circumstance occur) JPM had nothing to lose.
It was in one of the initial statements and recovery for the estate doesn't have to mean commons. Hopefully it does, but it doesn't have to.
And if that happened to be a cryptic clue as to hoping there would be money for equity, then it's more of an update than a contradiction.
I only mentioned the initial statement because I hope people will "keep it real" and try to understand the risks here as well as the vast room for recovery and reward.
I personally believe WMI isn't going to get squat and we're screwed or they're going to damn near run the table in which case we're all going to be very happy and some of you will be very rich.
Judging by WMI's legal team's comprehensive understanding of law and their obsession with quoting from precedents set in prior cases I would say we've got the best chance possible to see significant recovery... which in my eyes means money all the way down to the commons if not a reborn WaMu with escalating share value.
But it's far from a given and based greatly upon my hopes and limited understandings of this and all forms of litigation. If I said anything other than that I'd be lying.
"Do you remember how "they didn't expect recovery for the commons" was communicated to the shareholders since it does contradict court docs that say they expect significant recovery for the "estate"."
I just don't think it's at all realistic to plan on getting back Providian or FSB, let alone both.
You want to debate issues, but to date I've seen nothing to mildly imply that WMI feels it has any chance or desire to pursue trying to get back either of these subs.
Maybe they will try, maybe they won't. But you're implying that I'm throwing around my feelings while just tossing whatever you want out there.
Why not go all out and claim they're getting WMB back as well? Maybe they can take part of JPM for compensation to boot.
The commons own WMI, ONLY if they aren't canceled. Right now we have no representation in court and have been shot down twice when trying to get an EC.
Hopefully the third time is a charm.
I know you've been here a long time. I know you have the best of intentions, as do I. I'm certainly not trying to offend anyone or pick fights with anyone. I am however trying to tell you guys to think about this stuff logically.
That's it. I won't respond anymore tonight lest you deem me a basher. I have nothing but the best of intentions.
To be blunt, I'll leave you with this thought.
I believe this whole thing is a game. I believe WaMu was taken down to prop up JPM. I believe they'll survive this. I believe Lehman will also survive, probably in the form of a juiced up Aurora bank.
WaMu will be used to alter the way holding companies are handled just as Lehman will alter national and international law enabling the powers that be to further deeply integrate international law.
Both serve a nefarious purpose. You can run to Canada, Japan, Iran, or Brazil. It doesn't matter. It's all the same beast with the same goals.
I hope like heck that my Ps survive this and that things aren't snowballing as quickly as they appear to be because, I'd really like to enjoy a non pauper lifestyle and live out the rest of my life in relative comfort.
My current holding in Ps is worth more than all of my possessions put together. TRUST ME, I have nothing but high hopes that WMI will prevail and we'll be rewarded for our efforts, patience, and due diligence. But I'm not crazy enough to believe for a second that it's a given, or that WMI owes me a damn thing. That's not emotion. That's reality.
"Now if we get back WMFsb + $4B + Providian + Tax Refunds = Significant recovery for the debtors estate."
What point would there be to saying anything? The judge has to sign off on it. They're helpless to do squat without her approval.
There is harm that can come regardless. Imagine you're a WMI exec looking to dump shares slowly to get as much as you can for them? Would you come right out and tell people the gig is up?
I'm just throwing hypotheticals out there. The bottom line is, we'll know when they put forth a plan that is approved by the judge. They won't say anything until then.
Hopefully by the time that comes around we'll have the 4 billion, the tax refunds, and the NOLs sitting in an account... along with an Equity Committee and a judge that will look at the pending lawsuits and ask WMI if they're out of their minds should they even bring such a plan to light.
They can create new equity to raise funds without wiping out the old.
All I'm saying is, lets not take for granted that they won't or at least won't try... because I do NOT trust business people, especially BANKERS to give a crap about me EVER under any circumstance.
"But what harm is there in saying they're going to cancel, or must they wait until the submit the reorg plan?"
They haven't announced any plans about anything and as such they wouldn't have announced anything in relation to anything, let alone equity.
You guys can believe whatever you want. I'm certainly not a basher, but be realistic. All banks feed off of the public. It's the nature of banking. WaMu didn't have a halo over it's head and if it serves them well to do so, they will try to cancel shares.
I've done as much as anyone and in some cases a heck of a lot more to get the word out and to share the truth with people. But they don't owe me squat.
You're going to see a big fight over the tax refunds. If WMI was in the business of being nice and completely loyal to any and everyone they'd just take the loss and give them the refunds.
You can't just assume that you know where the line of delineation is between loyalty and profit. It's not as simple as you'd like to think and there's no reason to believe that just because WMI is fighting a fight that we support it somehow means they're wonderful people that have our backs.
We've already seen Bonderman gifted a position on the board of GM. Just because TPG was screwed in their WaMu holdings that things have to be made right for them through WaMu. That's not how the elite of the world work.
I don't believe the commons will be canceled. I don't believe equity is much danger at all. That having been said, it's not prudent or realistic to just make assumptions about who's got our back or that we can get a sense for what TPG is up to because they still hold their shares.
I'm telling you all point blank the global elite want you wiped out. If that means taking a major loss here and then a major gain elsewhere, with tons of equity purged, they'll giggle all the way to the bank (pun intended).
The lawyers have stated in the past that they didn't expect recovery and it's likely that that's changed. But they haven't publicly made it a point to note that they won't be ditching equity either.
We NEED the As to catch up to the Ls so we can get an equity committee in there. Until a plan for reorganization is released don't expect to hear a peep from the lawyers or WMI about the future of equity. That's why these things are released as part of "plans". It all comes out at once.
Use your heads and be careful. Do your own DD and believe what you want. My track record is nothing but honest. I've been high and happy some days, and down in the dumps others... just like all of you.
The bottom line is, we know the facts. But we don't know how this will play out. There are still far too many wild cards for people to be this confident that EVERYTHING will work out as we hope.
Hopefully this post isn't going to offend as many as I assume it will... but unlike some I actually do care how this turns out for all of you. And I'm not saying sell and run. I'm just telling you there is a chance we could all get screwed.
"Exactly, the lawyers and present management would have notified commons of plans to cancel commons."
They haven't submitted a plan yet...
Going way back I do remember then saying they didn't expect recovery for the commons. Since then we've seen the court docs say they expect significant recovery for the "estate".
It would be unwise, if not illegal for them to say anything about the value of the stocks since in reality they can't back it up with anything more than speculation, the same as us.
But you can bank on the fact that if assets and liabilities even out equity will be standing before the judge, at least offering input and pleading our case to her.
People can speculate all they want about this stuff but when they being telling you HOW it's all going to unfold as if they're the brains behind it all, the only thing that can be said is they're full of it.
If they stick around most of that debt is long term. They won't have to give squat the commons. They'll just escalate in value according to the value of the company.
If they get everything you've alluded to there, an equity committee will be a lock.
At that point the company would likely create new stock to raise money, which in my opinion would more than likely be preferred shares.
There's a lot of ifs in there and speculation on top of what ifs and I think is worthless.
You're entitled to think whatever you want but IF WMI gets all of that stuff, expect that equity will be represented in court.
It's a year old and all it did was limit the amount of shares a party could own or sell.
It depends on what you mean by settle.
If WMI gets 3.5 billion in NOL money that will be 3.5 billion JPM had no access to because they took TARP money.
If WMI chose to sell itself to JPM for paper, using 3.5 to purge itself of debt first, or as added incentive for JPM to do such a deal would make it much more attractive to them.
I personally believe there are those in the know... and us. Those in the know KNEW the NOL law was coming. Factor that into your theories about what's going to happen... even if just as a "what if".
It's not a hard deadline for a reorg plan. It's a hard deadline for a plan that's exclusively set forth by WMI.
Bondholders and such would have a say in addressing the court before the judge approves anything after the deadline.
They are "making it right" by allowing the Chinese to come here and physically buy up American banks, specifically distressed ones that they will undoubtedly be getting for bargain prices... especially if Bair just swoops in and grabs them, then hands em off no questions asked.
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUSHKG20883520091117
Every answer/hook up doesn't have to do with bringing WaMu back or repaying via WMI. The same goes for Bonderman and TPG.
Be very careful when you just assume situations have to be righted within the confines of a neat little box. These guys are all interconnected in ways that we could never imagine and as such we can't always see how one hand is shaking the other.
Exactly,
As I posted on Yahoo...
The WMB Bondholders have chimed in and as usual, people freaked out.
That motion was nothing different than if Bonderman's mother filed a motion saying she believes WMI should get the cash because he owes her some money he borrowed when he was a kid.
Sure he made no effort to pay her in the past, but now she's worried that if WMI doesn't get control of the money he'll never be able to pay her back.
My example is ridiculous... as is assuming the WMB bondholders have any say in the matter or that they've submitted anything substantial to the mix. They even allude to the fact that they have no statutory right to say much of anything that will matter.
I don't see that move as anything more than the FDIC's mouthing off at the judge in court. It's a nudge, push, or slap meant to cause doubt in her mind. It's meant not to add anything of substance, but as a dare. They're daring her to make a decision under the guise of if she screws up, lots of people will be hurt.
*Come on judge... why decide when you can take the pressure off of your shoulders and let it go to trial*
I'd also bet my arms and legs that the FDIC used the bondholders to slip a couple of digs in there as rebuttal to WMI's response... ie WMI is misquoting the Congressional ban on taking deposit money for set off purposes.
As for the bondholders, I do feel bad for them. They're between a rock and a hard place and if they believe for a second that Bair is going to get that cash and give it to them they're nuts. All they have to do is listen to the audio from the hearing and it's clear as day what the FDIC wants to do with the money if they get it...
They will give it right back to JPM and pretend nothing ever happened.
So at best these can triple? A much simpler and safer bet would be buying Hs at 8 bucks, cause they're more than likely to at least quadruple.
Yawn...
"While they admittedly have no statutory right to intervene, the Bank Bondholders insist that they have an interest relating to WMI’s claim against WMB because it could imperil their own chances of any recovery."
Ehhh yeah... I know how they take it down. The point is, I'm sure they can and do use the same tactics to bring it back up ust the same.
They make tons of money when this runs. Don't kid yourself into thinking they want this parked at 2 cents with no volume forever, because they don't.
They kept it in check. They drove it down because when the judge rules, should she rule in WMI's favor it would have been much harder to contain as it closed in on the 1 dollar range... and people would have noticed it up that high.
They rode this into the ground and have been grinding it there until natural buying returns, or until they decide to flip the switch and start churning out their accumulation for profit.
Call me crazy, or even realistically crazy but if I'm going to believe the MMs can take a stock down, then I have to believe they can at least play a part in igniting a run.
I have no doubt that plenty of them are perfectly natural, but I also suspect there are plenty that have been induced by the MMs looking to cash in on the shares they've soaked up.
I think the MMs could even have a hard time getting a "Run" started again after the way they burnt people when they crashed it down.
In the end, who cares? Unless you're flipping does a bump or two really matter? If it didn't go to .40 cents I think we'd have a lot more sane people in these boards right now.
Matt, a VERY TRUSTWORTHY user over on yahoo called the court and has made it absolutely clear that this is completely bogus. The person that started the "rumor" and everyone else that claimed to back it up, probably the same person under different names, should be reported to the SEC and authorities.
Matt said the clerk told him they've gotten an influx of calls out of nowhere wanting to know if the 72 hours thing was legit and she emphatically said no... The Judge is working on it.
It might not be unethical to call... but it's certainly unethical to lie about such things.
Yes, you need to update your information in a big way.
That is has...
I lurk. ;)
Glad to see some of my fellow old timers still hanging in over here.