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Something to bear in mind:
This will increase AYSI's comp costs and most likely lead to a little dilution (via stock or options for new board members). Still excellent news though. Board members like these can draw on their personal networks to open some doors for AYSI sales reps.
Mike, could you update the financials in the info box when you have a chance? Thanks.
No idea, but
It would've been ironic if they used this song instead:
Everybody wants to rule the world.
Lots of new content on AYSI's website ( http://www.alloysteel.net/ore-processing/product-performance.html ), including this clip of Arcoplate in action, inexplicably set to music by Tears for Fears and Aretha Franklin: http://vimeo.com/8120920
Could be the delay with the Q1 numbers. Last year this time, they had already been released.
Agreed.
News from AYSI
AYSI CFO Barry Woodhouse directed my attention via e-mail to the company’s updated website, which includes audited annual financials for 2010 and a letter from Gene Kostecki to investors. Kostecki writes:
The Company has identified a new CEO, Chairman and new directors to help the Company in its next growth phase. We will advise shareholders once the appointments have been made. Regarding my role, I will resign as Chairman and CEO once the new Board and a replacement CEO are appointed, expected to be during the first calendar quarter of 2011. I will remain with the Company in the role of Technical Director to help supervise the continued development of Arcoplate and its production.
Well said.
Post the short case for AYSI if you like.
Do it on Short Screen this month and you might even win a free iPad for your efforts: http://steamcatapult.com/2011/02/02/someone-is-going-to-win-a-free-ipad/
Anyone feel like responding to this comment?
On the Seeking Alpha article I wrote about AYSI this week, a woman left this comment ( http://seekingalpha.com/article/250279-alloy-steel-international-rebounds-thanks-to-q4-numbers#comment-1447017 ):
I like this stock and the product it represents, but I'm a bit suspicious as it fluctuated from $0.62 five years ago to a high of $3.15 on Feb. 8, 2010, so if you're a buy and hold kind of person, no real lasting gain for you. The stock price is just not gaining any consistent long lasting momentum and there's absolutely no upward pattern, just extreme volatility. It could be great for a trader looking for short term gains or buying calls at the right time.
Yeah, noticed that too. Maybe Yahoo has the same delay.
Heard back from VectorVest. They'll have AYSI's financials updated next Tuesday.
VectorVest hadn't updated the numbers as of Monday, so I e-mailed the woman who handles their database and asked her to update it.
Why not keep it public?
It makes more sense than taking it private, IMO. Think about it:
1) Kostecki has control either way, so that's a non-issue.
2) If he ever decides to sell off some shares, that's much easier to do while its public.
3) It keeps the door open to potentially tapping the capital markets in the future.
Yahoo! Finance @ VectorVest Showing incorrect ttm EPS
Both show ttm EPS of .19, instead of the correct .28. That makes their P/E numbers (trailing, in the case of Yahoo!; forward in the case of VV) look higher than they should.
I'll check VV tonight and see if they've updated the numbers. If not, I'll contact them. They still gave a buy rating Friday, based mainly on the technicals.
A few differences with Short Screen
1) You just need to enter a ticker to calculate a score. You can try that calculator out for free here: http://seekingalpha.com/store/app/143-short-screen-trial?source=store_learn_more
2) Short Screen automatically determines whether the more appropriate score is the Z-Score (for manufacturing companies) or the Z"-Score (for non-manufacturing companies) and gives you the correct one.
3) Short Screen includes a screener that automatically runs the Altman models on thousands of stocks every trading day, and instantly provides a list of the 50 lowest-ranked stocks above a specified minimum price. E.g., if you can run a list of the 25 most-distressed companies trading at or above $5 per share.
AYSI and the Altman Z-Score
Back when AYSI de-listed in September, another poster here asked me for an Altman Z-score on the stock, which I provided. The score indicated financial strength, as I noted at the time (see linked message).
The other poster's implication was that the Altman Z-Score wasn't useful because it hadn't predicted the stock's decline or its de-listing. Of course, the model doesn't predict stock prices. What it does predict is whether a company is at risk of going bust.
If you review posts here from when AYSI shares hit their 2010 bottom -- or posts from when they hit their 2009 bottom -- on both cases, some posters claimed the company was on the verge of bankruptcy. In both cases, AYSI's Altman Z-Score indicated financial strength, which helped give me confidence to add more shares.
I'll flesh this out more in a blog post elsewhere, but in the meantime I thought I'd mention that subscriptions to the tool I use to look up Altman scores on individual stocks, and screen stocks by their Altman scores, are temporarily available for 99 cents per month (instead of the usual $30 per month) thanks to some generous corporate sponsorship. More details on that are available here, if you'd like to take a look: http://seekingalpha.com/store/app/102-short-screen?source=store_learn_more
Littlefish deserves a lot of credit.
He hung tough too when the stock hit 23 cents in '09.
I mentioned it in passing on Slope of Hope yesterday ( http://slopeofhope.com/2011/01/good-morning-campers.html ), and noticed a bunch of slopers clicking on my blog post about the annual numbers. Maybe one or two of them will nibble next week, who knows.
I don't know.
Last year they released Q1 numbers on 2/11, but they were on the OTCBB then. On the other hand, their quarterly numbers don't need to be audited anymore, so that should speed up the process.
Thanks, Barry.
Glad you held onto some shares.
These numbers would seem to support the company's claim during the Q&A last summer that their sales had been limited by capacity/manufacturing issues and not demand. Will be interesting to see if they can keep the momentum going in 1Q 2011.
Amazing. Congrats for hanging in there.
Monster year.
That was a surprise.
Plan B on hold
Barry Woodhouse just e-mailed me saying year-end financials would be out today (Friday, 1/28).
Thanks for your e-mails though.
Will do, Virg, thanks.
Please mention AYSI in the message field when using that form, so I know you're contacting me in reference to this. Thanks.
Plan B
I am looking into a different tack to shed some light on the situation here. It would make more sense to communicate about it via e-mail than online though. You can e-mail me via this form, if you like: http://launchinginnovation.com/work-with-us
Thanks Virg, and thanks for supporting it.
I have a couple of other ideas in mind. I'll keep you posted.
Yeah, I'm aware of that.
I'm 1-and-1 on JOE now, but I'm going for 2-and-1: http://shortscreen.com/message-board/261-going-for-2-1-on-joe-st-joe-co-joe
Thanks, Mat.
Definitely would like to take pics if possible.
I haven't spoken with Gene about anything since the Q&A at the end of August. If this trip gets funded, I will try to contact him to schedule a meeting with him. If I don't hear from him, I'll try to meet with others down there who might have some info on the company.
I won't be booking the airfare now, but in a couple of weeks, if this gets funded. The cheapest airfare then could be significantly higher. Same with hotel, cars, etc. So it's better to have some margin of error.
But the first contributor raised a good point: I should consider heading to Indonesia as well. If this gets funded, I'll try to do that as well (in which case, the trip will probably extend beyond a week).
Aiming to keep it short, cheap & productive: a week.
First contributor kicked in $500: http://rockethub.com/projects/859-due-dilly-down-under
Sorry, didn't think that was being testy.
But as I said, I'd be happy to stay here and contribute to someone else going.
This is something some of us talked about last year; I just figured I'd put it out there and see if there were any real interest.
I'd be contributing my time, plus any cost of the trip beyond $6400 (the $7000 goal minus RocketHub's fee). If someone else would rather go instead, I'd be happy to kick in cash and let them spend 24 hours flying coach each way.
Due Diligence Trip to Perth
I posted this as a project on RocketHub: http://rockethub.com/projects/859-due-dilly-down-under
If the project raises $7k in contributions within 15 days, my plan is to travel to Perth in the second half of February and try to find out what's going on with Alloy Steel. If the project doesn't raise $7k, I won't go, and whoever contributed will get their money back, as per RocketHub's policies. More details at the link.
Bought puts on AIB again.
The $1 strike August 2011s. More details here: http://shortscreen.com/message-board/260-betting-against-aib-again-allied-irish-bank-aib
Did you even read Avoidthegarbage's post on this? He's bearish on it too: http://shortscreen.com/message-board/244-djsp-disaster-reaches-some-clarity-djsp-enterprises--djsp
You should register for the ShortScreen message boards and respond there.
Volume will probably light until the 10-K is filed.
Some positive industry news yesterday though: http://steamcatapult.com/2010/12/15/the-ft-boom-times-ahead-for-picks-shovels-plays-on-the-mining-industry/
I would be pleasantly surprised by any guidance
But the low float definitely gives the stock potential for big moves, one way or the other.
Incidentally, this column in yesterday's FT underlines why AYSI has been trying to expand its manufacturing operations in Indonesia ( http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e1122292-0309-11e0-bb1e-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz17h22cct6):
There are signs of boom wherever you turn, visible in the cost of a Sydney electrician or the scowl of a Perth waiter. One mining executive calls the latter the Perth Services Index, a sign that waiters in the Western Australian capital, if they quit, can earn A$110,000 (US$109,000) a year driving trucks in the Pilbara mining region. On the edge of those mining towns, some workers live in converted shipping containers that fetch more than A$1m.