No, you are not alone in seeing incompetence. Dr. Missling has once again over promised, and under delivered. I hope this is not what they taught him at the Kellogg School of Business Management. As a CEO, you're supposed to UNDER promise and OVER deliver. What a disappointment this morning's news release was.

Hopefully, he will have Dr. Fadrian on this Conference Call today, so that he may explain what the game plan is. I'm tired of hearing the SOS from Missling-I want to hear the FDA strategy from someone else (who might actually know what they're talking about).

My fingers are crossed.

Okay, I guess up is better than down. However, we still have quite a ways to go for most of us to be "back in black."

Two dollars more and I'll be at my cost basis (which, by the way, would have to be around a 72% return from today's closing price). That is the conundrum you face as an investor--as the price declines by a percentage, it takes nearly double that percentage to return to your initial basis).

I'll be ringing hells bells when we get there.

Seriously? After being down 40% these past 4 months, we are getting excited over a 9% increase? Let's cool the engines a bit here.

Let's see if this has any legs--we'll know soon enough if DM has anything of consequence, or it's more of a rehash. Let's hope the company is ready to get things moving.

Fingers and toes crossed.

You are correct, sir. This is why timelines and projections DO MATTER, since market valuation is often predicated on these being met.

I know the closet scientists on this board want us all to believe that delays are "no big deal", they are "to be expected", and that ultimately the "science will prevail."

Well, the steep decline in market valuation these past 3 months does not support this. As Vince Lombardi said, "If the score doesn't matter, then why do we keep it." With investing, the SP & market valuation is the scoreboard for a company.

I couldn't resist making a football reference on Super Bowl Sunday.

P.S. Let's hope this week is the beginning of great things to come from AVXL.

Frrol:

I also meant to say your assessment of the Biogen situation regarding them being no longer interested in A-273 for MS certainly seems more plausible, given the recent SP decline. Couple that with trial delays, and you have a perfect storm of selling. This makes more sense than market boogeyman purposely "rigging" the market against a company.

Frrol:

Your post is one of the most honest, unbiased, and informative posts that I have read on this board. You are not sugar-coating, hyping, cheer-leading, inferring, and/or extrapolating. You're also not dismissing the possibilities this company has if their business plan execution and drug efficacy are demonstrated.

You've laid out the potential market opportunity for Anavex in very basic, easy to understand language that presents both sides of the story.

It's a coin toss, but 50-50 seems like a bet worth taking for a nice return both financially and for humanitarian purposes.

Thank you.

Trader Pete:

If he lines up a partnership that brings this SP above $5, I will grow my thinning hair long and say "danke schon" to DM.

BTW, I do happen to hold quite a bit of my holdings in mutual funds. You make it sound like that is such a bad thing. I am grateful that I have a substantial amount in them. At least that money has been getting a market return (unlike AVXL). As knucklehead Jim Cramer has often said, keep some of your money in speculative holdings so it keeps you "in the game." I'm sure if someone called him and asked about AVXL these past few months, he would have hit his "Sell, Sell, Sell" button and done the submarine doing the depth dive sound, or the jumping off the building sound.

You are correct--AVXL's return these past 6 months has no correlation to the overall market (unfortunately for us). HOWEVER, perhaps IF any of this speculation being bandied about might have a kernel of truth, we might actually outperform the market over the next 6 months. I think the broader indices are tapped out and overdue for a correction.

Who knows what is to come. Certainly most of us didn't expect a nearly 50% haircut (no pun intended) on the value of our holding these past 6 months, but that is what has happened. And yet, most of us "fickle retail investors" have remained, because we are committed to the cause. Perhaps we are fools being led to the slaughter, or maybe there is a rainbow after this brutal storm and headwind. I've pushed all of my speculative chips into the jackpot pile, and I'm willing to call the bluff if need be.

All this wonderful speculation, and yet the share price is down over 45% within the past 6 months?

Either the market is grossly inefficient and "rigged", or we (as investors) are some of the most gullible, only want to see what we want to see, type of folks.

Which side of the coin is it?

I think it's coming in the next sixty days.

This comment reminds me of the sitcom Sanford & Son from the 1970s, when Redd Foxx would grab his chest and say: "This is it, this is the big one!! Do you hear that, Elizabeth, I'm coming to join ya."

I sure hope you're right about "the big one" regarding an announcement of a partnership, but I like many, will only believe it when we see it. Speculation and reading tea leaves has gotten us nowhere thus far.

There is the old market adage that states: "When investors are yelling, you should be selling. When investors are crying, you should be buying."

It seems like a perfect time for DM to grant himself more options, since the ones he received in December @ $3.30 are now $.71 out of the money in less than 2 months. A 22% decline in 6 weeks.

I read somewhere on the board that management's effectiveness is not measured on a stock's price and performance? Hmmmmm....you really believe that?

Unfortunately, the overall stock market looks like it is going to be a bit bumpy for the foreseeable future. Probably not the best time to be hoping for a positive movement in the stock price. Even if positive news is released, it will be somewhat muted because the overall market sentiment seems to be turning negative.

Time to play Powerball & Megamillions.

Your Fibornacci chart looks like a Double Diamond ski slope in the Northeast--steep and straight down.

Peace, brother...I want nothing more than for this company to be successful.

As I recently stated, I fell victim to my own tempered optimism about an early 2018 Rett trial start. I thought FOR SURE we were going to hear about Rett starting in early January. That's egg on my face.

My best guess is that this price decline is due to Missling not even being able to deliver on one trial start as of yet. I think the market would have been somewhat forgiving for AZ & PD being delayed, but I think Rett was the "canary in the coalmine" regarding milestones not being met.

Let's hope for better days ahead.

So to your point, the volume these past few weeks has been only slightly above the average volume level (400K versus 320K). How does this support your assertion that this price decline is "rigged?"

I would be more willing to consider your belief/theory if the volume really dried up AND the price were still declining, but that is not the case here.

Quite frankly, I'm amazed this has stayed above $2. With nearly 10M shares in institutional hands, what would/could happen if they start to unload in 100K blocks? That would be ugly.

Fair enough. I guess it's hard to be jumping for joy each day the stock goes down. I guess I'm whining.

I sure hope you're right, because there is no way $24M covers the cost of 3 trials, and to keep the lights on for 2 more years without revenue, a partnership, grants, or additional dilution.

and thus Missling's options are worth exactly nothing.

Which matches the value we are getting to date for his business acumen in running a biotech company--nothing.

I don't believe he has enough cash for 2 years. Perhaps he does if all he is accounting for is G & A expenses, such as keeping the lights on and paying salaries.

Enough to run 3 trials--I'm highly skeptical. Why should we believe anything he says? As I have mentioned previously, once you've lost your credibility, there is not much left to fall back on.

Of course I don’t blame him for their suffering. You took my quote WAY out of context.

And another thing that made my blood boil was when AVXL wanted us to VOTE for them to win some ridiculous social media contest. What was the point of that?! I thought that was really low class. Focus on the task at hand, and don't worry about internet popularity contests.

I am NOT suggesting it is easy to set up a trial. I wouldn't have a clue as to all of the particulars that need to go into it. I am also not the CEO of a biotechnology company whose job IS to know all of the particulars and pitfalls of the process. As many have suggested on this board, he had to know by November 2017 at CTAD that 2 of the 3 trials were most likely not going to happen in 2017, yet still continued to string us along until the 2017 calendar ran out of months.

Did he not hire an expert from the FDA, Dr. Fadrian, to manage this process? Would it have been helpful to perhaps have had Dr. Fadrian on the Conference Call on December 11th, to possibly explain what had been done to date regarding the proper filings? Yes. Could Dr. Fadrian have given some reassurance to the stakeholders in the company that the protocols for filing these documents were being followed. Yes. I'd rather hear about this from someone other than DM at this point.

I was nearly certain that DM was going to have already announced the start of the Rett trial. Why wouldn't I think that "any day now" actually meant just that. In fact, I thought this would have happened weeks ago. In the meantime, girls continue to suffer from this condition.

He has done none of the above. His lack of transparency has undermined his ability to be taken seriously in this regard. I'm angry and disillusioned. I'm holding onto a shred of hope that what we have here will be life changing to those afflicted. But how the heck are we ever going to know if we don't get the ball rolling.

He hasn't failed to start a trial.

Really?

I will give you the contra-positive statement:

He has succeeded in not starting a trial.

That sounds much better.

Can you blame Noble for not getting back to you? What insight can they provide you, when our own CEO's words ring hollow. 0 for 3 on 2017 trial starts, and his "any day now" comment on 12/11/17 about a Rett start has become 7 weeks of nothing. Add to that another month and a half of cash burn, and I'm amazed this company still has a market value above $100M.

It really is a shame what is transpiring here. I can accept that a trial does not meet its primary endpoint. We have all be there in the biotech world. What is unacceptable is never knowing because the trials never commence.

Perhaps tomorrow.....

we will hit a new 52 week low. Well done, Doc.

OK, if that's what DM stated, then we'll have to take him at his word.

Let's hope they give us the green light imminently.

I'll meet you half way and say the FDA is 50% of the reason, and the other 50% is our fearless leader, DM.

A_Good_Day_2:

I guess your prediction turned out to be correct regarding Monday's Investor Conference. I was hoping for something to get the ball rolling, but unfortunately that did not happen.

Overall, the market looks like it's going to be pulling back after quite a run. I wouldn't be surprised if the broader indexes retreat another 5% in the next few weeks.

Although I am not a chartist or TA person, there is no denying AVXL's one year chart pattern is brutal. I sure hope things will change sooner than later, but we all know what that is dependent upon.

BTW, not sure if this was previously mentioned, but singer/musician Neil Diamond announced this week that he is afflicted with Parkinson's Disease. Similar to MJF, hopefully his public announcement will bring much needed funding, attention, and research to helping those who suffer.

To paraphrase what USA Hockey Coach Herb Brooks told his young men in 1980: THIS IS YOUR TIME. NOW GO OUT AND TAKE IT!!

This is our time, DM. Let's get it done!!

Nidan7500:

Thank you for your constructive response. It looks like we both agree that we are at the inflection point with this company. 2018 will be the year that defines the future of this company.

Here is hoping we hear something very soon (as in this week).

Falconer66a:

I am long 10K at $4.75 since July 2015, so you don't need to be questioning my motives as to whether I am wanting this company to be successful. What others' motives are on this board, I cannot say.

As far as you wanting me and others to "Move On", that would not bode well for any longs on this board. As previously stated, I am giving DM to the end of 2018 to get at least 2 trials started (I've already given up on getting any readouts in this calendar year). If this does not happen by 12/31/18, I will be taking my tax loss and "moving on." I would expect the stock price to be much lower if this scenario plays out, which will be unfortunate to many (including yourself) who also want to see this company become successful.

As some on this board have previously stated either directly or indirectly to you, having a great scientific idea without execution is just as poor as not having a good idea, since both will result in failure. We can talk mice and rats all day (sorry, murine models), and get all excited. Ultimately, we need to start another HUMAN trial. Data from 32 person trial from 2 plus years ago is not moving the needle here anymore.

Let's see what DM has to present on Monday--maybe both of us will be pleasantly surprised.

What will Dr. Missling present on Monday at the panel?

That is the big question. If he starts reciting statistics about 2050 health care cost estimates for ALZ, then we know that he has nothing new to say.

There are only so many times investors and stakeholders in this company can hear the same thing regurgitated before they move on.

We are nearly 7 weeks past the Dec 11th "any day" now comment DM gave when asked when Rett could start. The stock price is languishing, positive sentiment here has taken a hit, and our CEO is heading to sunny Florida on the company's dime. We are hopeful (despite the recent share price action) that maybe DM might have something of consequence to reveal at this forum. However, if he trots out the SOS (same old sheeyt) from that 2+ year old trial, then we know he just really wanted to go play some golf.

I'm beginning to think that DM also stands for "dead money."

There are 3 types of companies: 1)those that MAKE things happen--innovators 2) those that WATCH things happen-imitators 3)those that say "WHAT HAPPENED?" Number 1 is Apple, Amazon, Facebook. Number 2 are brick and mortars that are trying to "reinvent" themselves in a new paradigm. Number 3 are bankrupt companies (SEARS) that scratch their head and wonder how this could have ever happened. If we only had more time.......

The lesson: BE BOLD, BE BRAVE, BUT DON'T BE COMPLACENT.

Which one will AVXL be? That's the question that needs to be answered--and soon.

Get ready to be embarrassed.

I hope you’re right on this one. I have 10K shares and nearly 47K invested, so I think I have plenty (probably too much) skin in the game. My cost basis is $4.70, which seemed reasonable 6 months ago. Now, it looks like a long way up from here. I’m not putting another cent into this stock. I do admire your confidence—now let’s see if it comes to fruition.

I guess if you're going back 4 years, then perhaps you are okay with where things stand. Since I've "only" been invested for 2.5 years (which places me in the "impatient" category according to some on the board), I am underwater by nearly 35% of my initial investment. Therefore, forgive me for not bowing just yet to our Sun God, Dr. Missling.

However, the market cap you state is not $150M, but actually about $133M. This may not sound like a big deal, but sometimes investment funds have market capitalization cutoffs, and $150M is sometimes an inflection point that decides whether they can/can't own a security. Even more of a concern is the PPS. Several funds have a minimum of a $5 PPS as a minimum amount that can be considered investment quality. Add to this that fact that at Merrill Edge, you cannot margin/or even purchase on margin securities below $10.

Based upon what I have stated above, think of the limited demand for a security such as this based upon some of these constraints. The longer this stock drifts downward, the less likely it ever recovers. Say what you will regarding what we may potentially have, but many great ideas "die on the vine" when execution is poor.

I want to believe that AVXL is on the precipice of a paradigm shift in biotechnology. I'm just having a hard time ignoring the reality of the SP erosion and lack of transparency coming from HQ.

Personal opinion? The numbers (lower stock price) don't lie. That is a fact. Zero for three on 2017 trial starts is a fact, not an opinion.

Here IS my personal opinion: Missling is not starting the trials because he has that sinking feeling that his wonder drug isn't going to be efficacious. Perhaps the analysis he has gotten thus far is not showing any significant statistical correlation. The solution to this potential dilemma: If you don't start the trials, they cannot fail.

I sure hope that I'm wrong (for my financial well being, as well as the hope a wonder drug may provide people afflicted with these CNS disorders).

Putting out "cream puff fluff" PRs about a trial from 2 1/2 years ago does nothing to bolster my confidence, nor that of several members on this board.

Yes, I am a disillusioned investor in this company. I can't imagine there are too many institutional investors who are pleased with Dr. M as of right now (unless they are short sellers). If more lose hope and faith in the company (and perhaps some already have), this will put further downward pressure on the stock.

God help us.

Opportunist: What is your primary role as CEO and president of Anavex?

Dr. Missling: Guiding the company strategically and operationally through the task of creating value for shareholders.

My follow up question to Mr. Hairdo would be:

Well, Dr. Missling, you stated this back in 2014 to Opportunist. How would you rate your performance in achieving this goal, nearly 4 years later?

Hmmm....not so good.

I expect looking back this week will turn out to have been the best time to buy more during the last several years.

Haven't we been saying this for quite some time now? I really can't believe that we're still sitting in limbo, nearly 6 weeks past that December 11th fiasco, and there is still nothing of consequence coming from HQ. That cream puff fluff of a PR on Tuesday was sniffed out for what it truly was--a waste of time. What's next--A-273 is a good stool softener? Geez, enough already.

Dr. M is looking more foolish and unreliable by the day, which does not bode well for us longs. Let's get our act together AVXL!!

Bourbon, I think the retail shareholders were right to be wary of those preferred shares. There was never a clear explanation given as to why the company wanted to issue them, and what they would be used for. As the name implies, it really gives the holders of those securities rights and privileges way above those of common stockholders. I have seen some preferred placements done where they had 10x the voting power of a common stock.

You often see preferred stock offerings done with closely held, or family run public companies. They issue the common stock to gain currency and liquidity in the financial market, while concurrently using the preferred to hold on to their voting rights. Essentially, it guarantees that the will of the BOD be done, due to the larger voting rights granted by the preferred. It essentially not only dilutes the equity of the common stock shareholder, but it also marginalizes their voting rights.

Heads they win, tails we lose.

Perfectly stated, Gator328!

You hit the bullseye!

Oh yes, holding 3 is REALLY impressive.

Almost as impressive as the SP being down nearly 12% in one day.

I really don't want to hear any more updates from this 32 person study. How many times can this information be recycled to the public? The market doesn't seem to care either, as many voted with their wallets and headed for the EXIT.

Good luck to all--we're going to need it!!