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FFF - Played a few round of golf in Blackfoot. Yea, the Bobcats, from 79-83 (BS ChE), then MS ChE in 1986. Home base was Idaho Falls from 1989 thru 1996.
You're sure right, it's God's Country. My main fishery growing up was the Yellowstone (was literally my back yard). Two lb browns, cuts, rainbows were a dime a dozen. Just throw em a Joes Hopper or Royal Wulff...
FFF - where abouts in Idaho? From Montana myself (Livingston). Spent several years working in the Idaho Falls area. Had some great times fishing in the Idaho-Montana border area (e.g., Henry's lake).
Zu - Thanks!
I wish they would speak with a little more clarity. What the heck is meant by "onset of approx 60%..." and has triggered preparation for a ...
Did we hit the required number of interim events or not?
I'm really groovin on this PPS run-up to interim results! Yea, aint it great? This piece of dog dung isn't going anywhere (at least not in our life times)
Anyone know what happened to BioChica? Used to post here quite often. Just curious.
JL - Totally agree. This is like some kind of bad joke. While I never believed anything else (label expansion, etc) was in play in the 1A negotiations, I still find it appalling it took this long to get what we got today. Guess it doesn't really matter much except for the money blown on the high priced attorneys. Perhaps AMRN is as pathetic as their share price would indicate?
raf - per my simple model, if 967 occurred on 2/11/16 the RRR would only be about 21% (assuming a 5.2% placebo rate)
HD - My bet is damages/compensation will be awarded. Likely AMRN receives a one year membership in the jelly of the month club:)
HDG - Not sure if I'm following, but are you implying from your "simplified number/calc" that with a 5.2% placebo rate and 36% RRR we aren't even half way to interim as of 2/24/16? (i.e., only 375 + 13 = 388 events so far).
In Sun We Trust?
Have any of you smarter guys read the latest SunTrust report (2/18/16). Despite not believing R-It will be stopped at interim,they remain fairly bullish on AMRN with a $6 price target. They estimate AMRN to be cash flow positive in 2017 with non-GAAP EPS ramping from 0.13 in 2017 to $1.15 in 2020.
Kiwi - your inability to fully read and comprehend messages can cause confusion and be misleading to others. According to JL's post, he had been assuming the stop date to be the date of the 967th event (neglected to factor in analysis, etc. time). He is still on for May for the 967th event to occur.
(every board needs a village idiot - keep up the good work:))
HD (or Other smart folks) - what do you think is the lower boundary for the placebo event rate in R-It (i.e., 4%, 4.5%, etc.)?
I'll guess I'll just refer back to my post of yesterday. Are we really smarter than the mega-bucks like Stonepine? If one plans on continuing to hold this stock, be ready to hold until 2018. Couple that with probable dilution, you may be able to grab shares for 50 cents between now and then.
Man, has Avi ever taken us to the cleaners this time. This company sucks!
Watching today's action, I'm definitely not gonna be a buyer of any more GIG until the $1.50 or so range. Very hated stock right now.
I've been in this thing since the Lumera days. Always had a handful of those old shares after the mega RS. GIG started to interest me again last summer when it appeared they were finally starting to turn the corner.
I think long term it's gonna pan out. This short term action seems irrational, but if it drops back to the $1.70 level I won't be surprised. This morning, the market looks poised for a little relief rally. Won't be surprised if GIG is down as it often seems to move in the opposite direction of the market. Guess we'll see.
One thing that keeps gnawing at me is if R-It has the potential RRR numbers so many of us on this board believe (with a high chance of interim stop), why is the pps so low? Yea, the market sucks, particularly for biotechs. But with such a major catalyst looming, it doesn't add up. I can't believe the few on this board are the only ones with the intel to estimate the interim possibilities (btw - I've got my own spreadsheet using HDG's enrollment numbers).
It seems to me that the only investors believing anything big may happen with interim are here on this board. Are we that much smarter than the rest of the crowd?
Added more today as well. Ticked at myself I didn't sell before earnings release, but then who saw this pounding coming?
drrc - you are dead spot on. If there is not another delay (most likely there will be), the best we will get is some BS about language clarifications. Anyone hoping for anything more than that (or another delay) is just setting themselves for a major disappointment.
marzan - what joint letter are you talking about?
I'd be willing to bet we will see the Tamarack Advisers holdings (new position) offset by a decrease in Tamarack Capital Management holdings
Fishy - not to sound like I'm doubting what you say, but who are these pros? I mean, if I'm not mistaking, there has not been huge changes to the upside in tute ownership.
Good grief guys. I hope you don't lose any sleep tonight over the "Proceed with Confidence" moniker.
Kiwi - the reason I stressed the placebo event rate is that at this point in the trial (assuming I have a good understanding of the enrollment data - thanx to HG) we would have hit 967 events by now unless; 1) the placebo rate is much lower than anyone on this board anticipates or 2) the risk reduction in the Vascepa arm is looking good and getting better by the day.
Someone please correct me if I'm totally screwed up.
Kiwi - not to get into the middle of your love fest with DM, but it seems to me your arguement (as informed by your doctors) is the placebo rate in R-It will be significantly lower than what others on this board are using for estimates?
sts - I hear you. Been very concerned about the same thing.
zum - wasn't this published in 2002?
JL - Unless I mis-read, this article was published in 2002? Not exactly new...
raf - I hear ya. Believe me, I'm no Mog. I'm up to my eyeballs in this thing. Sometimes I just find it hard to believe we are sitting on a blockbuster drug that only those in this little community are savy enough to recognize. The pps and lack of institutional interest or analyst coverage would seem to indicate we are all nuts.
Been investing for a long time (30 yrs) and every time I thought I was onto something ahead of the crowd well, it's never come to fruition. There was always, ultimately, a reason why the buyers didn't show up.
Sure hope AMRN bucks that trend...
drrc - only way to salvage your investment is to sell at the best price you can get and then run, don't walk, run from this pig as fast as you can.
I'm much like you regarding belief in the drug, but let's look at the track record here. Yea, we got the court wins, but they didn't do squat for the pps. As for R-It, if it's going to be the smashing success so many on this board believe (myself included), then why isn't the share price even remotely reflective of that belief? Are we on this message board just intellectually superior to the big money and sooner or later they will catch on to the imminent success of R-It? Seems a little far fetched...
$1.41 - someone here gonna turn out the lights?
Main - I agree in that I'm not expecting much from the 2/17 letter (if not delayed again) except language clarifications. That said, the whole notion of only getting language clarifications rubs me the wrong way for two reasons:
1) If that's all we get, then why all the delays?
2) why does AMRN have to negotiate any language clarifications with the idiots at the FDA? Just be truthful and not misleading. If that pisses the FDA off, well F'em (or take the dumb bastards back to court)
So is me
BB - believe me, I'd love nothing more than to see the pigs:)
BB - the day we see a $B settlement between the gov and AMRN is the day you'll see pigs flying over your house. Ain't ever gonna happen.
JL - it begs the question, what would make you dance the "Funky Chicken"?
Main - I feel your pain, but currently it's just the overall market. In markets like this, the baby gets thrown out with the bath water.
BB - I'm not following your connection between Monday's 8-k and any settlements. Could you expain?
BB - Thanks for sharing. Have you asked them what is going on with NCE? I've been tempted to but haven't. Yes, the won the case, but FDA has yet to do anything so, in effect, they've won nothing yet. They've gotta step on FDA's throat.