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Another CAR-T gets bought for 2.1 Billion.
Novartis buying Endocyte and it's CAR-T adaptor molecule (CAM) tech.
ECYT was $2.24 a share when bought on 4/17/17.
I really don't like when giants buy the smaller company, I think they would wind up making more $ in the long run just staying themselves and growing themselves.
Merck, Celgene and AbbVie gobbled a few of mine already.
Actually, buying more MRKR this morning in a few hours.
It's 2:15 AM, just decided to sell out totally of 3 biotech stocks tomorrow, and putting that $ in to buying more of 3 other biotech stocks that I own, one of them being MRKR.
AND ALSO, like I pointed out a couple weeks ago, if we can (maybe now with the help of Funds $ coming in) get the price above 10.50 - 11 , we can start a short squeeze, that should shove it to at least 12.50 - 13 range, (which would be nice).
Speaking of MRKR vs Allogene, some stuff I just don't understand.
Allogene: 2.8 billion - pipeline behind MRKR.
French company Cellectis: 1 billion - pipeline behind MRKR.
Allogene and Cellectis doing basically the same thing (off the shelf CAR-T).
Allogene is using technology that started at Cellectis that they got through Pfizer.
Pfizer owns about 25% of Allogene, and Gilead, who bought KITE also invested in Allogene.
So, you got 2 "off the shelf CAR-T" companies valued at about 4 billion, both with pipelines behind MRKR.
What are the advantages of "off the shelf CAR-T" technology that makes it valued so highly - it's much quicker and cheaper than let's say NON off the shelf CAR-T like KITE and JUNO and others do, plus it's also genetically engineered for that specific patient, also like KITE and JUNO and others do
Now compare MRKR MultiTAA technology - it is ALSO much quicker and cheaper, it is NOT genetically engineered, but that also makes it SAFER.
It also has some "proof" that it may even work "better".
So why, when MRKR pipeline is more advanced, is it valued so much lower?
For the last couple decades, biotech has been enamored by the next latest greatest new technology. We went from RNAI tech, to MRNA tech, to CAR-T tech, to TALON tech, to CRISPR tech.
ALL genetically engineered.
Along comes MRKR MultiTAA technology - quicker, cheaper, safer, better.
But it's not sexy, it's not NOW, it's not genetically engineered.
A couple of good trial results and it should just rocket ship, and you should hope that they do NOT accept a buy out by a Gilead or a Pfizer.
P.S. I'm as guilty as the rest of biotech. (RNAI tech) jumped on Alnylam early. Waited for YEARS for JUNO (CAR-T) to go public. Waited for YEARS for EDITAS (CRISPR) to go public. STILL waiting after YEARS for Moderna (MRNA) to go public.
Well, now that the merger is done, it looks like the combined market cap will be about 380 Million.
The two "equals", Tapimmune and Marker stockholders own about 210 Million (55%), and private stockholders own about 170 Million (45%).
The MRKR share price would have to go up to about $22 to get to a 1 Billion dollar market cap.
Gilead bought Kite for about 12 Billion.
The new Allogene is almost 3 Billion.
MRKR price should be going up higher as more fund money flows in, but even if it doubles, it would still seem kind of cheap compared to others.
Added a bit more shares Monday morning, but did so with realistic expectations. I wouldn't want to encourage anyone to put too many of their eggs in one basket based on hype or hyperbole they read.
TPIV currently has shares held by Vanguard, State Street, Blackrock, Barclays, UBS, US Bancorp, Morgan Stanley, (all giants), yep, no one has heard of TPIV?, but that will change drastically after the merger no one is also aware is happening.
Can't wait till we get that 800 Million to 1.1 Billion dollar market cap after the merger no big money players are aware of, because we know something that Vanguard, State Street, Blackrock, Barclays, UBS, US Bancorp, Morgan Stanley doesn't.
And all the giant pharma's with multi-billion dollar market caps, either never heard of TPIV's technology, or if they did, couldn't afford to buy us or Marker, right?
You know, I'm reading some say $1 or 0.65 cents soon …….. and I read others say $8, $10, $17.
What you say is mostly true - WHY would funds and INSIDERS be buying recently from as high as $6 to as low as $2.50 - if they thought is was heading to $1????????
Somebody knows something we don't.
And on top of that, there is still a large short position, which in time means "short squeeze" = price goes even higher.
I'm buying more in the morning.
UP 65% so far today.
PLEASE READ. There are algorithms out in the market that keep track of how many posts are posted on stock market discussion boards like this one and others, along with news articles, press releases, etc.
The more posts, the more the implied interest, and the higher that TPIV moves up on lists of "stocks with high interest" or "stocks that are potential movers" etc.
Even at the Investors Hub website, if you look on the main page, has a list, "Top 15 Talked About OTC Stocks".
I think that between now and the merger with Marker, if would be helpful to owners of TPIV, if we had as many posts on this board and OTHER BOARDS talking about TPIV.
The more posts, the higher the perceived interest, the more eyes that see it, the more new people investigate TPIV, the more people who see what we see as great potential, the more new buyers, the higher the price goes.
Just a suggestion for as many discussion boards as possible.
Stanford had a "supposed" 97% complete response rate with tumors in MICE. They are doing human trials for non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Don't think they hooked up with any biotech company.
Hi Eagle1,
Personally I don't short stocks for the same reason I buy and hold (mainly).
If you buy and hold the most downside you have is 100% loss, but you unlimited upside, 1000%, 8000%, like pcyc,alny,qcom owned all early.
Opposite with shorting, if your short is correct, your most upside is limited to 100% gain if the stock drops to zero, BUT your potential loss if it skyrockets up is unlimited.
To your question, a couple things.
Brokers can only let you "borrow" the shares if the broker has clients that own that stock in a margin account, they can't borrow shares from non margin accounts.
Also, us on this board would not be able to stop shorts, I read what people on this board own, 20k shares here, and 19k shares there, and 15+k shares, and we are not all with the same broker.
Also, I wouldn't do that for this reason, I take 15k shares and put a sell limit at 15 or 18 or 20, I'm going to feel awful sick if great FDA trial news comes out, I get sold at 15 and it ends the day at 25.
These shorters may be getting to us in the short term, but their day will come soon and they will be caught in a short squeeze and then we can all laugh at them as we count our $.
Also, check on the dark pool site I listed, if you see TPIV being bought in a dark pool, pile on in with them.
Part of the rise in shorts, are those same shorters, shorting more for the sole reason of keeping the price below where they will have to cover.
AN IN DEPTH ANSWER TO LEARN, if you want to follow up on your question
When 2 public companies merge, the market cap is easy because they both have established market caps.
With a private company involved it get a bit more difficult for many reasons.
Let's start with 5 things, GAAP, Goodwill, DFC, WACC, and EBITDA.
GAAP is "generally accepted accounting practices".
Goodwill is what valuation does the company place on it's "good name" and intangible assets.
For example, Boeing has a good will of 7.11% of assets or almost ONE BILLION dollars.
Fred's Floors may have goodwill of $1000.
It can be from 0 to a billion+.
And then you have DCF or "discounted cash flow", it’s more common in healthcare and bio-tech, where multi-stage DCFs to value firms based on the potential market for new drugs are more common.
Forecasted free cash flows (net income + depreciation/amortization, capital expenditures, change in working capital) are discounted to a present value using the company's "weighted average costs of capital" WACC.
The DCF method also tends to work better for more mature private companies that are sponsor/venture backed and or that have very solid comparables that you can use to calculate some of the numbers above.
What price does the private company put on their real estate assets?
How will Marker adjust many of their expenses and “normalize” them to industry-standard levels?
What is their EBITDA "earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization?
The private company’s margins may be artificially inflated because the Founder/CEO doesn’t pay himself enough (for the sake of building his/her company up).
As a private company, are there any non-standard revenue and expense recognition policies, non-business expenses being counted as business expenses, public has to use GAAP.
And there are also present and future tax considerations based on the above and GAAP.
Basically there are 2 answers to what will market cap be.
#1, You use comps or comparables to valuate.
My comps were in my first response, 442 Million to 671 Million with 535 seeming reasonable.
#2, We won't know until it's done and we know.
Hope this helps answer your question
When merger is completed and ticker symbol is MRKR, the combined market cap (depending upon some GAAP considerations) should be between the range of 442 million and 671 million.
That's a wide margin and I can't see it being higher than 671, something around 535 million would be my estimate.
The Forbes article impressed me also, for decades they have always had high credibility.
I own and am holding.
I already have limit order in to buy more IF, IF, IF, it ever drops down to $8.85, but I doubt that will happen, but I hope it does.
Bought some more today.
15,700 shares from 3 TD Ameritrade accounts voted YES through email link.
VERY HEAVY VOLUME today.
I CAN NOT BELIEVE - almost a year, no one on this board, no one buying this stock. WHY is everybody sleeping on this Biotech?
Been buying and adding to position for the last couple on months. Was negative for a bit, but kept buying more. Now in the green but stock is still cheap versus it's huge potential.
Great FDA news today, tried to tell everyone yesterday, price up Even Higher and STILL almost 50 day short to cover ratio.
BUY AND HOLD
One thing for sure, no dark pool trades (about 40% of all trades that don't show up on NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ) on TPIV.
Kind of hoping there was.
https://otctransparency.finra.org/
But it's a good site to check on what the whales are doing that they want to hide from you.
Exactly what I think. Smart money shorts garbage, TPIV is NOT garbage, TPIV WILL go up over time, shorts will HAVE TO cover, or lose their a$$.
No, no one has to cover because of new ticker symbol, BUT some more interesting info.
The previous short dissemination info was from August 31.
SOOOOOOOO, that means that EVERY new short sale in the month of September was shorted BELOW $10 a share as you have to go back to later July for a price above $10.
Most shorts were borrowed between 11.25 and 12.50, with now recent shorts below 10.
If WE/us/momentum/trends can get this to pushing 12, shorts will panic buy to cover.
Short squeeze happen all the time.
I am not allowed to talk about other stocks on this board.
Look at Canadian cannabis company that starts with T and ends with Y.
A short squeeze too it from $100 to $300 in about a week, before everybody bailed out at the end of last week and this week.
There is a biotech that has gone from $9 to $12 since August (Starts M ends V) that has a 49 days to cover short position. That is CRAZY HUGE.
Waiting for that squeeze to kick in.
short shares are up, buy to force shorts to cover and price will go up, up.
PEOPLE / INVESTORS - price has gone up from 9 to 12 since end of August AND there is a HUGE SHORT position.
Based on average daily volume, there is a 49 (FORTY NINE) DAYS to cover ratio.
That is HUGE, all you have to do is BUY, BUY, BUY and you will FORCE a SHORT SQUEEZE.
Short sellers will be forced to buy to cover and price will go up, up, up.
WHERE IS EVERYBODY ON THIS?
short info just released, a 145% INCREASE in short shares, BUY, BUY, BUY, and FORCE a SHORT SQUEEZE and price will up, up, up.
short info just released, a 36% DECREASE in short shares.
NEW Short info just released.
Shorts went up to 1,010,000 shares from 880,000.
Would you like to see TPIV price go to (possibly) $14 or $15 tomorrow?
Force a SHORT SQUEEZE.
BUY TPIV to get price above the $11.50 to $12 price range, and the short sellers will start to buy to cover their short positions.
The more they buy to cover, the higher the price goes, the higher the price goes, more short sellers will buy to cover, etc..
If owners do that, the momentum/trend is your friend players will jump on board and drive the price even higher and force more short sellers to buy to cover, and etc..
If you are going to buy as a short term day trade, buy early and then sell higher Before 2PM/3PM, Before the momentum guys sell near the end of the day.
Look at today, early low of $9.23 to $10.60, about 15% profit, at 2:50PM, sell off, but many people made their 10%+ profit for the day.
If you want to hold your "X" amount of shares long term, that's fine, but there's no law that says you can't make extra $ along the way.
YEP, bought more, up 12% today, it may fluctuate up and down, buy it is so cheap, the trend is up, up, up.
Buy on any pull back and hold.
Yep, I'm buying more.
I HOPE you are correct and it does tank big time tomorrow.
I will buy and triple my current holdings.
I'm hoping Monday for a few reasons that have nothing to do with Aurora.
Sympathy selling on the giant sell off in Tilray.
Fed possibility of raising interest rates.
China walking away from trade talks.
Short sellers switching over to Aurora.
Below $7.50 Monday morning?
I hate buying more of something when it's up over 100%, but I want to buy more ASAP before Oct.
If there is a significant pullback in pps (Monday) or soon, LOAD UP on more shares before October uplisting.
When funds are allowed to buy, they WILL, so do it before they can.
I kind of believe so also. Right now, ONTX is almost a one trick pony (a phase 3 pony) (Yes, they got a bit other going on forward) but I think by recent moves and volumes, someone knows something that we don't and it all tells me good news.
HOPE I'm not wrong.
Also, we won't know next short info until 9-25-18 dissemination after 4 p.m.
Watch the daily volume, if volume is high, even with just small moves up in price, might be a good buy sign.
A bit of good news to hold on to.
In May there were 60,000 shares sold short.
Now there are 880,000.
Not huge, but it is about 1/15th of current outstanding shares.
If it really starts to jump up and climb, at some point those shorts will have to buy to cover, forcing the price up even higher …… which will force more shorts to buy and cover, etc. etc..
Most of those short sales were shorted between (about) $12.50 and $11.25, so the pps would have to climb near that bottom price before the shorts give in and start to cover.
But if covering starts at about $11 and it keeps climbing past $13, how much $pps would 880k shares being bought (outside of normal buying as investment - PLUS other buyers for other reasons) add?
Based on average daily volume and what price adjustments have happened based on that volume, could be (maybe) 50 cents to 75 cents per 75,000 shares, so that would be 50 cents to 75 cents times 12 = $6 to $9 …
IF it climbs past $13 and keeps heading up, so let's say (just) investment buying takes it to $15, if all shorts cover, it may wind up being $21 to $24.
I know that $6 to $9 might sound like a lot, but you have to remember you will have other kinds of buyers getting in, the momentum guys, the trend is your friend guys, the short time traders, etc..
Now, of course two things will also be happening that will try to dampen that a bit.
#1 profit taking
#2 new shorts selling to establish new positions at higher levels.
Should be an interesting couple of months to watch, (or maybe just a couple of weeks).
Something tells me that if it hits $11+, do nothing but hold (or buy more if your feeling ultra-confident), then just see what the next days volume is, if you have moves up in pps on large volume, stick with the hold plan until volume lightens, then make your decision as to whether to hold or (OK, I won't say it) anything else.
Something happening. A bit risky considering past, BUT may be good to buy and hold for news here.
OK, time for some reason on a smaller issue and a larger issue.
The smaller first, which is easy. Why is TPIV going up and then down and then up and then down?
Because that is what most stocks, markets, commodities, and indexes do over time, the trend may continue up, but they fluctuate down and then back up, etc..
The LARGER issue. I have been reading for months about, when will the merger happen, when will the merger happen, oh if only the merger would happen, we will all be rich when the merger happens, the heavens will open and angels will sing when the merger happens. The stock price will go to $25 or $50 as soon as the merger happens.
Is this the only stock merger that has ever happen?
What happens with most mergers?
No Great, Giant, Huge moves up.
Why? Because it's already priced in to the stock.
That is why you keep hearing, "buy on the rumor, sell on the news".
The pending merger is why TPIV went above $12, up 400% in no time.
Stock dilution normally tends to make a stock price go down.
We will triple the amount of shares, that will make it take off like a rocket??????
IF, IF, IF it does, what should you do?
You already know what I am going to say.
If TPIV shoots up to $25 or $50 as seems to be expected, be smart and PROTECT A PORTION OF YOUR PROFITS by employing staggered trailing stop losses.
WHY? If it shoots up, do you believe it will just continue to shoot up more and then more and then more and be $100+ per share?
In order for that to happen, you need catalysts.
What's the next catalyst after the merger?
When is the next FDA trial info coming out?
I'm sure there will be some institutional money coming in, in November and December JUST SO they can say in their annual report, "Look how smart we were, we owned TPIV and it went up a bunch".
But are they going to throw so much money in after it went from $3 to $25 or whatever that they drive the price up to crazy levels?
Possible, but I seriously doubt it.
History repeats, nature abhors a vacuum, excesses regress to the norm.
This is not a magic stock, TPIV is no different that the 100 other biotechs that merged.
I OWN a good chunk of TPIV, I hope it goes to $50 and then $100 in no time.
Do I expect it? NO.
If it does, am I going to capitalize on that and protect profits?
You betcha.