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Are we bouncing back next month?
JFF7
NovaGold got sold off on Friday because of funds selling off. Great buying opportunity for many companies. The funds were selling because the S&P TSX indexes were being rebalanced and a bunch of companies got kicked out of the indexes (and others got added). The funds need to sell to stay in line with the indexes. This is effective Monday.
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/December2008/12/c9488.html
JFF7
yes almost all the gold stocks are taking a beating today, including NG and SMC.
Looks like profit taking is the name of the game today.
JFF7
Fair enough. No one can call a bottom consistently. If other's want to sell because of fear or ignorance or both, that is fine. (yes I am still holding mine but I am holding off adding more as we are still in a drop mode).
Any thoughts on how low oil prices will go before they turn around? Or more to the point what the triggering event will be for the start of the rise back up?
JFF7
Unfortunately, investors do not know that POE's profits will decline slightly with the price of oil but are largely intact.
The problem is that all oil stocks get taken down with the falling price of oil. If you believe the price of oil is going to fall, you are better of to sell POE and short oil stock or buy a bear ETF.
JFF7
OIL.V
anyone buying at these levels? Just saw that UK government has taken a controlling interest in RBS who holds the financing for OIL. It is in the UK government's national interest isn't it to see that the North Sea oil flows. This may be a favorable development to the financing for OIL, shouldn't it?
JFF7
Are you refering to the 2D seismic program in Indonesia?
JFF7
POE.V
Sure but what are they going to do next year to increase production?
JFF7
BoBWINS - PBG
I don't get it. Other oil companies are up but PBG down on a day when oil is up, they reported what I thought was great results, and the markets in general were up.
Is there a big seller out there?
Something I didn't understand about the results? OK Thai is further behind than people would like but the companies valution doesn't reflect THAI / CAPRI anyways.
JFF7
China announced a $586 billion stimulus plan
This may generate some good investing opportunities. Note where the money will be spent.
JFF7
--------------------------------------------------------
China announced a $586 billion stimulus plan to spur expansion
China Announces 4 Trillion Yuan Economic Stimulus
By Li Yanping and Chia-Peck Wong
Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China announced a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan to spur expansion in the world's fourth-largest economy, helping sustain global growth as the U.S., Europe and Japan teeter on the brink of recession.
The funds, equivalent to almost a fifth of China's $3.3 trillion gross domestic product last year, will be used by the end of 2010, the Beijing-based State Council said today on its Web site. China will adopt a ``pro-active fiscal policy'' and pursue a ``moderately loose'' monetary policy, it said.
China is taking steps to bolster its economy less than a week before Premier Wen Jiabao goes to Washington for talks with global leaders on ways to alleviate the world's biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said yesterday boosting domestic demand is the best way China can help stabilize the economy.
``The downside risks to economic growth are significantly greater now than just a few months ago,'' said Ma Jun, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Hong Kong. ``China needs an aggressive fiscal stimulus package.''
The spending announced today, of which 100 billion yuan is earmarked for this quarter, will cover low-rent housing, infrastructure in the rural areas, as well as roads, railways and airports, the State Council said. The government will also allow tax deductions for purchases of fixed assets such as machinery to stimulate investment, a move that will reduce companies' costs by an estimated 120 billion yuan.
Manufacturing, Property Slump
Wen is trying to stop China's economic slowdown from deepening as exports wane, manufacturing contracts and a property slump undermines domestic demand. The central bank has already cut interest rates three times in two months, reducing the one-year lending rate to 6.66 percent.
Manufacturing contracted by the most since at least 2004 in October and export orders dropped to their lowest, according to CLSA Asia Pacific Markets. Home sales have plunged in major cities including Beijing and the stockpile of unsold new vehicles was at a four-year high in September.
China's economy may grow 7.5 percent or less, the slowest pace in nearly two decades, in 2009, according to UBS AG and Credit Suisse AG. Last year, the expansion was 11.9 percent.
``The golden years have shuddered to a dramatic halt,'' said Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai.
To contact the reporters on this story: Li Yanping in Beijing at yli16@bloomberg.net
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aFsnGCiEPuEs&refer=asia
QUA made it clear that they would use shares in a friendly merger if a deal can be made.
HBM with weak management, properties in stable political environments and lots of cash would be an ideal merger.
JFF7
Hats off to Wade on his call on the Solar stocks. They have been on a tare lately.
JFF7
Thanks for the valued opinion. I have POE and OIL in about equal values now but was a little worried about OIL being overbought. Sounds like both are attractive in their own way.
I will think about PMG but may play it by buying PBG as they have always beem something I wanted to buy in a hold and mold position.
I'll have to look into BEXP.
Thanks again.
JFF7
Bobwins
Which do you think is a better bet for a junior oil producer? OIL or POE?
OIL has a bigger folowing but has some risk associated with putting their billion dollar line of credit in place. POE is under the radar but is a low cost producer who can finacne their drilling our of casflow.
Thoughts?
JFF7
I guess it is pretty much a given that Mineral Ridge is a no go at this point.
What about Ashdown? Can they make a go of this portion of their business with dropping Moly prices? How low can Moly go before even Ashdown is not profitable for them?
Does IR provide ananswers to questions like these? I may try tomorrow.
JFF7
It may be reasonable to assume that if management said a while ago that distributions would not start until near the end of the year, that date will be pushed out by the falling Moly prices. They will not make as much on their Moly sales during the project time period so they either have to cut back on what they wanted to get done before starting distributions or they will have to wait longer to start distributions.
As well a problem for management is that if they put Ashdown in to production status in order to start receiving distributions that they can use on Mineral Ridge then they will have to start making payments on their debt. Some of the money that could flow in for Mineral Reidge development would have to go to paying the debt instead.
Is this the definition of a rock and a hard place?
JFF7
Yes I agree that the comopany is not providing much insight into what is actually happening.
I think part of it is a reluctance on their part and part is that they don't know themselves (for example, they probably really don't have a good handle on actual costs per pound because they are still doing development work at the same time as production. This fuzziness should be clearing if they are truly moving to full production.).
With dropping Moly prices though, they need to start cutting anything not designed to get them profitable. They need to survive until the world economy picks up again and the price of Moly rise with it.
JFF7
Thompson Creek listed the end of week Moly price at 27 bucks on their website. I'll go with them.
JFF7
SGR has some nice deposits but can't seem to get the gold out of the ground. Poured their first gold in August of 2006 and still can't produce enough to cover their costs. Just had to dilute again to raise cash to see them through the next while. Drill, drill, drill. That's their favorate thing to do.
However, if they could get their act together and actually produce from some of the finds they are reporting and the price of gold held up, they could do quite well.
JFF7
Great report on future Moly production and pricing
http://www.westerntroy.com/mo9-08.pdf
JFF7
Question
Does anyone have the link for the website that summarize analysts opinions on various stocks?
It's a real good resource for getting a quick summary of the issues surrounding a company's valuation. Unfortuanely I lost the link but am now looking for it.
Can anyone help?
JFF7
Lentinman,
as far as your temporary bottom call today. Is there anything you look for as far as confirmation (from a technical perspective?)?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32782287
JFF7
If Ashdown is more important to the cashflow / survival of GPXM, how much are they spending on MR right now?
If WEX can't find a way to pay for their share of improvements to Ashdown, wouldn't WEX's lack of finances be the constraining point, not MR?
TIA for considering these questions and any thoughts you may have.
JFF7
Copper Inventories
Part of the selloff may be that for the first time in a while the Shanghai copper invesntories also went up (1487).
JFF7
http://www.shfe.com.cn/estatements/secondpage.jsp?subjectpid=905&subjectid=9053&startpage=1
looks like Moly / Cobalt are definetely going to be traded on the LME in the second half of next year. This will lead to more volatility of Moly prices.
JFF7
London Metal Exchange Will Trade Molybdenum, Cobalt (Update1)
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen and Claudia Carpenter
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The London Metal Exchange will start trading cobalt and molybdenum futures next year, offering manufacturers of iPods, laptops and steel products protection from price swings through an exchange for the first time.
The board approved both contracts at a meeting today, a person with knowledge of the matter said. The contracts will begin in the second half, said the person, who can't be identified because the exchange hasn't made the information public. The LME is the world's largest marketplace for copper.
``It's great -- it will help guys like us get involved in such an important metal like cobalt,'' Lars Steffensen, managing director of commodity hedge fund Ebullio Capital Management LLP, said by phone from Southend-on-Sea, England. ``We'll start trading anything the LME offers once there's enough liquidity.''
Molybdenum, produced alongside copper, is used to toughen steel. Cobalt, used in rechargeable batteries, is a byproduct of nickel production. Prices for both metals have jumped in the last several years because of rising demand for steel and mobile electronic devices.
Cobalt rose to a record $52.25 a pound in March, and was $33.75 a pound on Sept. 2, according to a cobalt sales Web site from BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company. The European Union price of molybdenum oxide is $34 a pound, according to Metal Bulletin. Prices reached a record $40 in 2005.
``I'm absolutely in favor of a cobalt contract,'' said Derek Benham, president of New York-based BenMet NY, in a phone interview from Manchester, England, yesterday. Benham said he has traded cobalt for 20 years, and ``it's a lot easier with a futures market because you have inventories and you would be able to hedge just like any other metal on the LME.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net or ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net; Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 4, 2008 08:48 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aBvNhxX5gA3c&refer=canada
Teomax, POT
"...seeing Pot presentation CAPEX 1.5 billion one have to ask, how do they plan to raise money? ..."
Did you look at their current market cap (59 Billion) and the profits of over .5 billion per qtr? And you still wondering how they could float 1.5 billion in equity or take out a loan, it would take less than a year to pay back?
How much cash or cash equivalents do they have on their books?
Maybe I misunderstood the question?
JFF7
LOL... I was wondering if I would be hearing from you soon. Good to see this one is a thorn in your side.
JFF7
Good advice. I took some last year and will take some more this year. Lots to learn.
JFF7
I am going to be in Vegas regardless as I take that opportunity to take in the Traders show and enjoy some time at the tables.
JFF7
PBG
Yes I bought some today at 36.22. Looking for a short term bounce to sell into. Not ready to committ to a longer term yet.
JFF7
MOL.TO up 29%
Looks like their interim financiang is in place. They should be the first major Moly miner to come on line. Hope this helps other Moly miners.
JFF7
Maybe these new guys can get the good news out about GPXM and what is happening at Ashdown. Maybe they will advise the company not to raise cash for MR until Ashdown starts showing a profit on the bottomline. Let the share price strenghten.
As soon as you go looking to issue more shares to raise capital for development, people looking at providing the financing will put pressure on the share price in order to get as many shares for their buck as possible.
JFF7
FR - First Majestic - Silver mining
Kipp, I also really like this one. They are on an aggressive drill program to prove up more reserves as well as upgrading their mills to increase production this year and next year.
I think they said they have the more drills operating (24?) than any other mining company in Mexico. Their second qtr production results that ccame out a couple of days ago showed a 49% increase in silver equivalent ounces over last year and a 20% increase over the previous qtr.
Regardless of what silver and metal prices do, these guys are going to do very well over the next year. They have multiple operating mines and are expanding resources and production so they can move from mid-tier to major producer and they have the financing in place to do it.
JFF7
QUA Results great !...Again!
These guys are on a roll.
=======================================================================
Quadra Announces A New Quarterly Production Record And Increases
2008 Production Guidance
=======================================================================
Vancouver, Canada -- July 7, 2008...Quadra Mining Ltd. ("Quadra" or
"the Company") (QUA:TSX) is pleased to announce a new production record
of 44.6 million pounds of copper and 42,348 ounces of gold from its
100% owned Robinson Mine ("Robinson" or "Mine") for the second quarter
of 2008. As a result of the continuing strong performance at Robinson,
the Company is increasing its 2008 annual metal production guidance
from 130 million pounds to 150 million pounds of copper and from
100,000 ounces to 115,000 ounces of gold. Key operating and sales
metrics for the second quarter are shown below:
http://www.quadramining.com/i/misc/quad772008.jpg
In the second quarter 2008, Robinson continued to process ore primarily
from the hypogene zone in the Veteran pit which contained higher than
average head grades for both copper and gold. The higher associated
recoveries, due to a head grade -- recovery relationship, in
conjunction with the blending and reagent strategies developed late in
2007, resulted in some of the highest recoveries so far to be achieved
from the Veteran pit. As a result and following a look forward
re-assessment, production guidance for 2008 has been increased to 150
million pounds of copper and 115,000 ounces of gold.
During the second half of the year, Robinson is scheduled to process
more mill feed from the supergene ore which has typically resulted in
lower metal production. While the operation now has significant
experience with the supergene material, it will not be able to
completely mitigate some of the challenges inherent in this complex ore
zone. The revised guidance takes into consideration the variability in
grades, recoveries and concentrate grade that is expected for the
remainder of the year based on recent blast hole drilling and the
existing block model.
Paul Blythe, President & CEO of Quadra said, "We are very pleased with
the exceptional year to date performance at Robinson and the continued
success of the blending and other strategies that we have developed.
Coupled with strong metal prices and the volume of sales, we are
expecting to deliver another solid quarter when earnings are released
in mid August. We have reviewed and updated our guidance to reflect
results to date, our increased confidence in our operating strategies
and the expected impact of the supergene zone as the year progresses."
The second quarter financial results will be announced at market open
on Thursday, August 14th, 2008. Details of a conference call to be
held on the same day will be issued under a separate press release.
CL001 - GPXM / WEX
Have you cashed out of these guys or are you still holding?
I am still waiting for them to go cashflow positive. I expect this to take another qtr as they are just getting to the point where they can use more equipment in the mining when they finsh the escapeway. They also have to conduct the infill drilling to firm up reserves some more.
JFF7
Bought some VNP recently.
Preparing for when the DEMs when the election and direct money in to the alternative energy sectors like solar.
May be a little too soon but I'm just weighing in at this point. Need to learn who the best companies in the sector are.
JFF7
yes the Cdn markets are closed tomorrow for Canada Day.
JFF7
TEZ
Bought a little at 53 cents but not going to chase it. If NUTS likes it, what's not to like. Now I need to do some more DD to see if I want any more of it.
JFF7
Cl001 - VGN
Wow up 100% in the last week and up 400% in the last month. But will it keep going? Or drop like a rock when the speculation runs out. Glad you have the stomach for this sort of thing. I don't. Ok, maybe once in a while but only if I get in early.
Good luck, hope it breaks a dollar for you.
JFF7
Copper - China destocking now? Nice to see the spot price back at 3.80s today.
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=88231d11-f604-431b-a146-1f9976ff6537
China may have sold copper stocks - Norddeutsche
Thu, Jun 19 2008, 10:19 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
HAMBURG, June 19 (Reuters) - China may have recently sold part of its strategic copper stocks, so weakening Chinese import demand for the metal, Norddeutsche Affinerie <NAFG.DE>, Europe's largest copper producer, said on Thursday.
The copper market has been focusing on demand in the absence of major production disruptions and labour disputes and attention has turned to falling Chinese imports in May and the other first five months of 2008, it said.
"This was largely attributable to the higher level of the copper price outside China, which represents a buying threshold and causes buyers to wait and see," it said.
But Norddeutsche said there were reports of good domestic Chinese copper supply and Chinese copper output also rose in the first five months of 2008.
"There is no information about the sales policy of the Chinese strategic reserve bureau," it said. "It is, however, conceivable that quantities have been released from the state copper reserves."
Meanwhile, in Europe and North America, the copper processing industry is facing the annual summer break, which usually results in reduced production and lower copper demand, it said. Volatile copper prices were likely.
"Changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Euro are currently causing additional uncertainty," it said.
"In this situation, quick reactions to new economic information and news from the market or the business environment must be increasingly expected."
(Reporting by Michael Hogan; editing by Christopher Johnson) Keywords: COPPER GERMANY/CHINA
TFN.newsdesk@thomsonreuters.com