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SEE THIS...This is a critical point for AVXL investors to consider in their planning. Dr.M. will let the science call the game. WS needs to get that.... The original post included MSFT, APPL as an examples for a different time base to use in SP/vs payback calculations
30fold
Missling clearly doesn’t care about the short term movement in stock price, so those that don’t take a long term view of this investment
McM...
Blarcamesine is a rEvolution to
Human Health as it unlocks and empowers
Mankind’s God Given cellular Chaperone/Triage Ligand, the Aigma One Receptor to create Cellular Homeostasis ..
Through Cellular Homeostasis our bodies are able to cure many illnesses minimize others and/or make themless severe.
McM...
The World will be forever changed.
Humanity will be forever changed
attila...
Good vibes coming out of HQ! You can sense it! It's hard to fake.
Enjoy another exciting day on our way to WGT!!!!
OK done
....edit test....test...
invest
Doesn't matter how patients drops out, it will affect the stats. Different statistical models can be used to account for missing data e.g. with a view to safety, no shows, death, withdrawn consent etc.
Thx tredenwater, a good laugh always helps.
Most days I am observing but not worried as many here seem to be about ..."WHAT'S NEXT"...boogey man kind of market moves.
When or IF people like Dr.Mac seem unsure then I pay attention. But, (Not to worry) he seems to be saying exactly the opposite. He, and other AVXL team-mates are traveling to SFO B/C they have something important to say. All we need to reason through is ...does this pass the ole SNIFF TEST?? (What color is it? what does it look like? OR...Does it smell like SHAT? ). Keep it simple, life is already tough enough.
This sure looks like the REAL THING.
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/anavex-life-sciences-AVXL/stock-news/89308235/anavex-life-sciences-announces-late-breaking-prese
Sokol
Results may be negative and share price will drop sharply. Results may be positive, but not so positive as to indicate near term approval. Results may be controversial as has happened in the past
30fold
I have never made any predictions on this board. I will make my first one now and it is a bold one. TLD tomorrow morning. Not certain of wether we get a halt or not, so not predicting that.
Any thoughts on what PR topic or (other news ) December 1st brings ? My guess is we will get a peek, maybe more.
CNS disease patients are trapped unless legitimate treatment is shown so that REAL progress can be made. IMO, AVXL is 1st in line to make a difference, WW.
abew4me:
And don't forget that A2-73 has a unique MOA
IMO, We need a FEW GOOD LEAKS. About 100 should do it. They must be, Close family members who are mature, credible observers able to provide many, many (real world) anecdotes from REAL LIFE stuff (Before v. After) stories. Let's not make this more complicated than it has to be. IMO.
The insurance companies and the paid clinical liars can fight it out on their own. We do not need to be told how to feel. ...Everyone else just...BACK OFF.
That should do it. C'Mon Dr.M.. Give us some love over here. ...just a hint will do. WGT.
From time to time, it is appropriate to stand back and rethink. Dr. Peter Senge often
Comments about , "Mental Models". Lets try to keep all our stuff in one pile. IMO, we are getting closer. Think of CNS as a SYSTEM.
The Mental Models of Systems Thinking
1. Feedback Loops
All complex systems are subject to positive and negative feedback loops whereby A causes B, which in turn influences A (and C), and so on – with higher-order effects frequently resulting from continual movement of the loop. In a homeostatic system, a change in A is often brought back into line by an opposite change in B to maintain the balance of the system, as with the temperature of the human body or the behavior of an organizational culture. Automatic feedback loops maintain a “static” environment unless and until an outside force changes the loop. A “runaway feedback loop” describes a situation in which the output of a reaction becomes its own catalyst (auto-catalysis).
2. Equilibrium
Homeostasis is the process through which systems self-regulate to maintain an equilibrium state that enables them to function in a changing environment. Most of the time, they over or undershoot it by a little and must keep adjusting. Like a pilot flying a plane, the system is off course more often than on course. Everything within a homeostatic system contributes to keeping it within a range of equilibrium, so it is important to understand the limits of the range.
3. Bottlenecks
A bottleneck describes the place at which a flow (of a tangible or intangible) is stopped, thus constraining it back from continuous movement. As with a clogged artery or a blocked drain, a bottleneck in production of any good or service can be small but have a disproportionate impact if it is in the critical path. However, bottlenecks can also be a source of inspiration as they force us reconsider if there are alternate pathways to success.
4. Scale
One of the most important principles of systems is that they are sensitive to scale. Properties (or behaviors) tend to change when you scale them up or down. In studying complex systems, we must always be roughly quantifying – in orders of magnitude, at least – the scale at which we are observing, analyzing, or predicting the system.
5. Margin of Safety
Similarly, engineers have also developed the habit of adding a margin for error into all calculations. In an unknown world, driving a 9,500-pound bus over a bridge built to hold precisely 9,600 pounds is rarely seen as intelligent. Thus, on the whole, few modern bridges ever fail. In practical life outside of physical engineering, we can often profitably give ourselves margins as robust as the bridge system.
6. Churn
Insurance companies and subscription services are well aware of the concept of churn – every year, a certain number of customers are lost and must be replaced. Standing still is the equivalent of losing, as seen in the model called the “Red Queen Effect.” Churn is present in many business and human systems: A constant figure is periodically lost and must be replaced before any new figures are added over the top.
7. Algorithms
While hard to precisely define, an algorithm is generally an automated set of rules or a “blueprint” leading a series of steps or actions resulting in a desired outcome, and often stated in the form of a series of “If ? Then” statements. Algorithms are best known for their use in modern computing, but are a feature of biological life as well. For example, human DNA contains an algorithm for building a human being.
8. Critical mass
A system becomes critical when it is about to jump discretely from one phase to another. The marginal utility of the last unit before the phase change is wildly higher than any unit before it. A frequently cited example is water turning from a liquid to a vapor when heated to a specific temperature. “Critical mass” refers to the mass needed to have the critical event occur, most commonly in a nuclear system.
9. Emergence
Higher-level behavior tends to emerge from the interaction of lower-order components. The result is frequently not linear – not a matter of simple addition – but rather non-linear, or exponential. An important resulting property of emergent behavior is that it cannot be predicted from simply studying the component parts.
10. Irreducibility
We find that in most systems there are irreducible quantitative properties, such as complexity, minimums, time, and length. Below the irreducible level, the desired result simply does not occur. One cannot get several women pregnant to reduce the amount of time needed to have one child, and one cannot reduce a successfully built automobile to a single part. These results are, to a defined point, irreducible.
11. Law of Diminishing Returns
Related to scale, most important real-world results are subject to an eventual decrease of incremental value. A good example would be a poor family: Give them enough money to thrive, and they are no longer poor. But after a certain point, additional money will not improve their lot; there is a clear diminishing return of additional dollars at some roughly quantifiable point. Often, the law of diminishing returns veers into negative territory – i.e., receiving too much money could destroy the poor family.
The Mental Models of Numeracy
"The best of times, and the worst of times". The CNS disease patients WW are about to learn of a new horizon for their families, friends and themselves. Bless the RSD kids . Looking fwd. to a great new year all around.
"Pilots and crews, report to your Ready Rooms." .
Excellent-rational post tradeherpete...thx
For efficacy, see the first P2a, 32 person Australian trial. They had unexpected efficacy shown in several participants but it didn’t have a placebo arm and wasn’t a large enough, properly powered P3 trial. Prof. Macfarlane pointed this out in a video interview, discussing the results.
In the next five weeks there will be Press Release by Anavex letting us know if the primary and secondary endpoints were met. If they were, then we are golden, if they weren’t, then we have to hear the details to see what they found. They should have told us if they weren’t met by now so the assumption is, they were.
The trial is properly powered, as Prof. Macfarlane stipulated in his video interview, otherwise I doubt he would travel a long way to tell us it wasn’t. Anavex has scheduled a late breaking entry at Ctad, there are also first hand anecdotal reports of many participants appearing much happier, outgoing and resuming life activities.
Therefor, I assume we are in for a positive readout in November or Dec 1, at the latest.
crescentmotor
Yes--but how good and when?
Thanks JKS3 for your thoughtful and informed post.
IMO, this is a future A2-73 likely CNS disease discussion analogy, fill in the obvious blanks yourself:
Search for: What type of infections read (CNS diseases does A2-73) (penicillin treat?) Is penicillin the safest antibiotic?
Fact: Not only is penicillin (A2-73) the only effective (CNS disease treatment) antibiotic doctors ever used, it's also still considered to be one of the safest and most effective medications. While several antibiotics have fallen out of favor as resistance rates have increased, penicillin remains a mainstay treatment for many illnesses .Mar 12, 2019
sokol
Best Choice Medicine (BCM): “ Every day thousands of
patients die from aging-associated non-communicable diseases (AA-NCDs) that might have otherwise been given new treatments that current regulatory systems have no framework to allow them to try. AA-NCDs have been recognized by the United Nations as a “threat to global development.” and a mandate has been set to improve the consequences of such diseases. Helping patients get access to new drugs is an imperative of the BCM.”
https://www.bestchoicemedicine.com/
Go to the site. Read about it. Sign the petition if you are so inclined.
Best Choice Medicine makes sense for patients suffering from aging associated diseases such as AD. By the time a patient is diagnosed, the disease has done irreparable damage, and there is a short window of opportunity to stop the progression of the disease - especially for older patients. Why not allow establish a framework to allow these patients access to new drugs that may help them? AVXL 2-73 seems to be a candidate to help elderly patients with neurological disorders. These patients do not have the time to wait years for a promising drug to be approved according to the current regulatory systems.
RedShoulder
eddie, I believe that is old news being recirculated today, if I am wrong please post a source;
This July 27th, 2022 is being recirculated today.
jtsmgolue [quote]It’s a game of chicken right now. every long term investor is staying the course and imo it will soon be apparent which side will leave the road.
patience required pre and post ctad. never underestimate an opponent esp with their back against the wall. partnership and/or well laid communication/pr plan will do wonders to overcome any ws games.
best to all esp. the patients![/quote]
Good message." We REALLY, do not know.. WHAT (HOW MUCH) we do not know", Dr. Peter Senge
IMO, when (if) an honest retrospective analysis is conducted (someday) the real stories will emerge on the last 30+ years at the FDA . IMO, the whole (FDA-NIH-WS...) thing is a horror story or worse.
Doc328
Hence an expectation, by me and Wall Street, of nuanced data that requires further analysis, rather than a clean victory
I know that some of you are anxious waiting for news
https://www.statnews.com/2022/10/28/patient-death-lecanemab-alzheimers-trial/
pete
It takes four months for this to surface? What happened to Material news needing to be released in a timely manner?
plexrec
*Checking "the temperature" 0f board members here --thoughts on upcoming TLR
falconer66a
Well, actually, “science” doesn’t speak for itself. “Science,” in the form of clinical results is just a bunch of numbers; clinical metrics. They are voiceless.
But what really speaks, and what the general public listens to are news media. Everything will change when the New York Times has a lead article, "New Drug Treats Alzheimer’s Successfully."
sab63090
.we are at a spot which might turn down, however my bias and my opinion is for it to resolve into an uptrend...it will not stay stagnant much longer....
Blarcasamine:[quote]We need people to handle the basics for the rare diseases that we will keep in house.[/quote]...
Agree and would add AVXL also needs to build an international team which is capable of working effectively in a strong regulated context across international management styles and Geo. boundaries. I Have many experiences w/such as the current AVXL growth proposition of both complexity and urgency.
Trust and a suitable understanding/respect of competence are critical to the success of this mission, without such then the team suffers . This will show during times of aggressive schedules and powerful technical tasks.
They must have an honest and comprehensive work ethic.
It has been my experience that the Irish and Australian work-cultures are a great match for such requirements . Bless them all.
Many aspects to strong teams and (so far) Dr. M and Dr. Mac have hit the ground running. This is just another example of that.
11.98+0.11 (+0.95%)
As of 09:44AM EDT. Market open.
Guzzie62
12.35 +0.48 (+4.04%)
After hours: 04:09PM EDT
Curious AH pop?
read me-or-me-or...https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/schizophrenia/symptoms-causes/syc-20354443
OR...pete
Maybe your right but people with the symptoms in your link, given little motivation can load their guns, go hunting and do.
Tradeherpete
Show and tell in five weeks, three days.
It may turn out removing some plaques can be of some benefit after all.
Well Done. Congrats . Never underestimate the power of prayer.
I waited until the scans before I posted this...Lungs improving, two tumors in liver are reducing in size. Nothing new found. I'm giving my thanks to God!
Anyone who has ever been in a conference room where science advocates duke it out over points or argument they each hold as religious artifacts will recognize where we are . BTW, there is NEVER a clear winner in those confrontations...but it must be done anyways.
The learning process is getting down to the last few finalists , do not expect a clean winner yet (AVXL VS XX, VS ZZ). Trust that at some point this to will pass and the process of learning will carry on. Possibly even some interim hybrid symptom based solution. The process does work .
The learning process will evolve (se Dr. Peter Senge models) , even though it can be tough. The real facts and solutions may already be on the table. I think so or will soon be. I do strongly see the AVXL upstream MOA as the final resolution winner. We are possibly even there now and only need a few final CN-system refinements.
XODCODE
To date, AVXL has painstakingly laid the groundwork and steadily progressed in its efforts to address neurodevelopmental and neurodegenerative disease.
georgejjl
avxllent,
You are absolutely correct. The CTAD presentation is NOT a required presentation. The CTAD presentation was chosen as an opportunity to present good to GREAT results at the CTAD conference for the scientific community and the whole world to see.
Remember this b/c it will be quoted a lot in the next few weeks.
Plexrec
"UP on a Friday is good."--agree strongly with this---very bullish sign !!!! WGT !