full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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More inclined to think TARM would absorb TRGD somehow, sorta like a kid eating its momma.
TORM link to cc is on their website under NEWS now.
TORM looks like .18eps ... oops!
Avion Gold Corporation (AVR.v/AVGCF.pk) Tuesday August 3, 2010, 7:00 am EDT
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Aug. 3, 2010) - Avion Gold Corporation (TSX VENTURE:AVR - News; OTCQX:AVGCF)(PINK SHEETS:AVGCF - News; "Avion") is pleased to announce new results for the Vindaloo zone on the Hounde Property in Burkina Faso. Avion has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the property from Avocet Mining PLC (see Avion news release, July 5, 2010).
This very large, 1,670 km2 property, lies within an emerging gold camp and is 60 kilometres southwest of SEMAFO's Mana Mine (which hosts estimated Reserves and Resources totaling 2.35 million ounces of gold and Inferred Resources totaling 0.91 million ounces of gold). The property is centered approximately 250 km southwest of Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso (see Figure 1).
Avion has intersected gold mineralization in each of nine holes that were designed to extend the Vindaloo zone both along strike and to double the depth of the previously defined zone (see Figure 2). These holes tested a 500 metre strike length of the zone, which is still open along strike and to depth. A summary of significant new intercepts is as follows:
-- 7.96 g/t Au over 7.5 metres
-- 9.77 g/t Au over 6.9 metres
-- 2.08 g/t Au over 22.9 metres
-- 4.01 g/t Au over 9.7 metres
-- 1.79 g/t Au over 68.4 metres
-- 1.84 g/t Au over 28.5 metres
-- 2.92 g/t Au over 39.3 metres
-- 3.06 g/t Au over 10.4 metres
-- 2.72 g/t Au over 18.7 metres
The mineralization trend, associated with the Vindaloo zones, can be traced through drilling, soil survey data and magnetic surveys for over 2,500 metres along strike.
The Vindaloo zone is hosted near the contact between an intensely sericite- and silica-altered intrusion and similarly-altered, intensely sheared and altered intermediate volcanoclastics. The mineralization is often quartz stockwork-style, intrusion-hosted and weakly to moderately pyritic. The entire mineralized package strikes north-northeast and dips steeply to the west. Higher gold grade zones have been intersected where the intrusion narrows.
There is also evidence of cross-cutting zones of mineralization near the Vindaloo zone where previous drilling returned intercepts of 2.39 g/t Au over 38.0 metres and 1.20 g/t Au over 34.0 metres.
John Begeman, Avion's President and CEO, stated, "The Hounde Property zones offer excellent targets for resource growth. This recent data confirms our belief that the Hounde property is highly prospective. We expect to have additional results and an initial mineral resource estimate by year end."
Additional parallel zones of mineralization are evident both to the east and west of the Vindaloo zone. It is likely these zones will be further evaluated in the future. A summary of these additional intercepts are as follows:
-- Vin West zone (VWZ) - approximately 100 metres to the west
-- 6.96 g/t Au over 3.0 metres
-- 2.96 g/t Au over 8.0 metres
-- 1.60 g/t Au over 13.0 metres
-- 3.86 g/t Au over 14.0 metres
-- 2.18 g/t Au over 8.0 metres
-- Vin East Zone (VEZ) - approximately 700 metres to the East
-- 1.34 g/t Au over 7.0 metres
-- 8.7 g/t Au over 1.0 metres
-- 1.21 g/t Au over 6.0 metres
-- 1.82 g/t Au over 4.0 metres
-- 27.2 g/t Au over 2.0 metres
-- 2.19 g/t Au over 5.0 metres
-- 400 metre long untested artisanal trend at south end
The VEZ can be traced for approximately 3,500 metres along strike based on drill data and artisanal workings.
Avion has completed 21 core holes totaling approximately 3,981 metres with nine of the holes completed on the northern concession block, and twelve holes completed in the southern concession block. Drilling will resume, in the northern block of concessions after completion of the rainy season in late September. Numerous high priority targets remain to be tested with approximately 7,500 metres of core drilling budgeted.
Field work, which commenced in late May, has focused on the documentation of extensive artisanal works, the collection of over 5,000 soil samples and compilation of available data.
Don Dudek, Avion's Senior Vice President Exploration, states "The Vindaloo zone area appears to represent a robust mineralization system where the combination of alteration and deformation often obliterated the original rock textures. This mineralization signature is repeated again through the middle of the concession block where current artisanal activities and drilling have documented extensive gold mineralization. As a result, we consider the likelihood for the discovery of additional gold mineralization is deemed high."
What is predominant rationale people are hearing for gold's recent drop? Surprising to see it down into $1150's, which appears to be the primary reason most gold/silver stocks are down.
AMNF: I've been watching/lowballing since you pounded the table today.
AMNF numbers compare pretty well with OFI in P/E, Margin, etc., though AMNF revs are 1/10 of OFI's and mktcap is 1/5 of OFI's. AMNF lack of longterm debt is sweet, especially since OFI's longterm debt exceeds mktcap of AMNF.
The news today emphasizes potential for more "industrial" customer deals, which is really same business as OFI. AMNF market seems a bit more upscale than OFI but limited to pasta and pesto-based meals. Not sure where the big growth might come from. This is a competitive business, and the margins on refrigerated foods are nothing to get excited about.
AMNF volume today is x10 normal, but price has not done much so far. Dropping my bids for now, as it seems better to wait til AFTER earnings giddiness subsides at this point. Also it appears to be a low-volume stock on most days, so higher risk in volatile times.
OT: Biblical templates for Wade's posts may be found in the book of Lamentations.
INTT sounds great, except for slightly lower bookings in Q2 vs. Q1. Perhaps the strong growth in revs is peaking. ???
Bob, let me know when you're ready to call the bottom on IAE.v as well. I wish I knew what the CEO of Ithaca plans to do with all that money in the bank besides drill.
MILLer time again. Yesterday they announced successful restart of a natty gas well (70mcfd initial production) in Cook Inlet area of Alaska.
Canfor CC didn't really help. Asked during Q&A about state of pulp markets and pricing, CEO says we're "scratching our heads", as historically when pulp prices shoot up as fast as they did this year, they almost always drop precipitously as the market reverses.
It seems like pulp has peaked and could stay high as US and European markets are tight, but some price drops are occurring in China, so that could act as a catalyst to push US-European pulp prices back down.
IMHO, the risk is that most investors who play in the pulp markets will have their fingers on the sell trigger if pulp prices do falter further here. Thus there could easily be a quick drop in prices of pulp which would cause a precipitous drop in pulp stocks. If the pulp prices are able to stay on the plateau rather than fall off the edge of the butte, maybe the pulp stocks can inch higher over time, but it seems many (like you) are just very wary of what may happen next week.
Putting it in fewer words, maybe pulp investors just see more downside risk than upside potential from here based on historical pulp price charts.
Good overview published 4 July:
http://goldstocksdaily.com/2010/07/04/gold-resource-corp/
Here's the last portion of the article. I love the chart:
Financial and Production
Since Gold Resource just put its first mine into production its past financials are irrelevant. It does currently have $3.7 million in cash and no debt. The low cash level is typical for a small junior that just hit production. Since they are producing gold now they should be able to fund the business from here forward with cash flow.
Hochschild Mining owns 30% of Gold Resource, and the management of Gold Resource owns 21% of the company.
53 million shares outstanding
Production is going to increase from 70,000 oz of au in 2010 to 200,000 oz aueq by 2012.
Conclusion
I must admit, 200,000 oz of aueq at $0 cost(as a result of by product credits) is pretty amazing. And Gold Resource has some fantastic exploration sites that are located very close to the El-Aguila mine. Also, they “have yet to find the bottoms of their deposits”.
It’s very easy to get excited about a company like this. However, the skeptical side of me wants to see some results first. The fact is Gold Resource hasn’t hit these production numbers yet. They are talking a good game, but will they come through and deliver for shareholders? Management does own 21% of the company, so they are “playing” with their own money too here, which is good to see.
We have seen pie in the sky forecast before out of mining companies, it seems like a lot of them never hit their targets. I would rather have a company under-promise and over-deliver, rather than vice versa. I’m not saying that Gold Resource won’t hit these targets, they seem to be well on their way to these figures. It’s just always good to keep a level head.
With a market cap of $650 million the street seems to be taking a middle of the road valuation. A wait and see approach if you will. 200,000 oz aueq at $0 cash cost would probably equate to a market cap of $1+ billion at today’s gold and silver prices. So investors seems to be a little hesitant as well.
Also, with a market cap this high and so little cash, the company can’t afford to miss these production numbers.
Bottom line, there seems to be a ton of potential here, just take a level headed approach if you are an investor.
CFPUF.pk monthly distribution still at .20 thru June. I suppose they may plan to up it next month based on results to be reported.
Yep, it's MILLer time again ! ! !
Got lucky and bought at 4.25 and 4.30. It's all good as GORO.
Thanks for the comments on Miller that helped me pull the trigger.
Not pouring their own gold dore yet, so when they sell concentrate, they don't get full value yet. Will be interesting to see whether they have tried to pour any gold yet. Greg Patterson listed as contact on the news release today, replacing Jason. Anyone speak to him yet?
GORO means GOLD, so Good Luck GORObugs ! ! !
B R A V O .... Great news!
Bob, MILL continues to be weak, but then again, so is everything else I think is way too cheap. I don't own any currently but want to get back in when the pps damage appears to be over.
Haven't heard much from the company lately, but I assume they've put all offshore well reactivations on hold for now, and they have to be concentrating on where to drill additional holes in Alaska.
I don't even have a clue (OK, never did, I admit it) what would be "fair value" on MILL anymore. Whatcha reckon, BubbaBob?
Thanks, much appreciated...
I understand what you are saying; good story with bad chart!!!
Time will tell. It's all about the partnership deals they can arrange for covering development costs at this point, IMHO. The less they need to dilute the better ...
str8tgoods, please post a link to the insider buy notice? Doesn't show up on Edgar since not US stock. Thanks!
MILL quietly dropping beyond reason ... hmmm ... no idea why, except that most stocks are erratic in volatile times.
ROIAK; when they are too dead for too long, dead cats don't bounce; they just go splat and smell like ............. (complete sentence however you like)
ROIAK: All those Form4 sell notices pushed me out of this one about a month ago. Too much insider sales, in fact, I don't think I've ever seen so many Form4 sales notices in such a short time from any company.
At this point, now that GORO is producing, we will be most anxious to see what the current qtr (Jul-Sep) and future qtrs provide earnings-wise. Quarterly revs and earnings will determine the price per share going forward. It's really amazing to me that GORO has continued to go up in price pre-production.
Although I like to express caution frequently about the Reids' exit strategy, I am a long-term holder, and I've sold some too soon and bought back some recently at 13, so I still like the company's prospects, at least in light of their desire to improve pps at least until Feb2011.
Although I like to express caution about the Reids' exit
Last caution: Hothschild can always modify their agreement with GORO at any time if the Reids choose to allow it, OR they can gain majority control before Feb2011 with a "friendly" offer, that mgt agrees to. Only time will tell ... keeping in touch with the Reids remains an important aspect of being a GORO stockholder.
Is OGC's Didipio project open pit or underground?
VVUS drug rejected ... bad news
I agree; this board seems to have no significant long-term impact on AAA.v stock price (although it does bring in a few buyers here and there); almost totally positive talk here about AAA.v, yet the stock price action has been totally sucky of late.
IMHO, the market wants to see some deals announced with well-funded deep-pocketed partners that will ensure all the necessary financing needed to get this Ethiopian potash play all the way thru development to production, a long and costly process. The big unknown seems to be how much AAA.v dilution will it take to get there?
VVUS excerpt from today's article on Reuters:
FDA staff earlier this week said they were particularly focused on five potential risks: the potential for congenital defects, psychiatric problems such as depression, memory loss and other cognitive issues, increased body acids, and higher heart rates.
"I think it's pretty well established that Qnexa has strong efficacy ... The real question will be how the members of the panel view those safety concerns against the efficacy benefits," Canaccord Adams analyst Adam Cutler told Reuters.
The agency plans to ask its panelists to weigh each area of concern before voting on whether to back the drug.
ps> Glad I only gambled on 4 calls (Jan2011 15's). Right now it looks like a crapshoot. Even if the FDA panel's recommendation does recommend approval, there will likely be some mention of label requirements/warnings. Other pharmas with wt loss drugs in the pipeline will likely benefit more today than VVUS.
GORO's standstill agreement with Hochschild states that H' can only accumulate up to 40% up til February 2011. Thereafter they can acquire additional shares.
In other words, GORO mgt does want to prove up as much additional resources/reserves as possible before February 2011 to help drive up the price of their/your/my shares.
IMHO H' will attempt to buy majority stake in GORO shortly after February 2011. Time will tell. In the meantime, I am optimistic that the Reids will prove up more resources, but the slow startup and attainment of commercial production has really limited the time the Reids will have to prove up the additional resources (only 8 months) before H' makes their move to buy the additional shares needed for majority control of the company.
That's just the way I see it playing out, and I'm assuming they will do some dividend payout during Q3 or Q4 of this year to gain additional shareholder interest (increase price). Too bad they won't get very far into underground mining of the higher grade ore before February 2011.
VVUS' Qnexa (Phentermine & Toparimate combo) uses much less than the standard toparimate pill, so that concern should be reduced, however, there may be a need for warning on the label due to inclusion of toparimate.
Hochschild control of GORO doesn't really hurt; only real point is that Hoch' gets the advantage over any other potential buyers by holding a controlling interest in GORO. Hoch' may just hang on and collect the dividends or they may just buy the majority stake whenever they are allowed to do so, then eventually do a buyout offer (once they control over 51%, any other potential buyers would not bother putting in an offer).
Hoch' has stated in past that by owning at least 40% of GORO, tax law allows them to take credit for their share of earnings on their own Hoch' quarterly earnings statements. They may stop at 40%.
Of course we don't know how much gold/silver GORO drilling will prove up in the next year, and we don't know when they will start with dividends. My guess would be that dividends begin in Q ended March2011, but that's just a guess.
Let's hope the GORO resource growth story can help GORO gain considerable attention and appreciation over the next year.
The Reids just simply do not strike me as operational guys, but rather they have a record of being successful mining business starters/builders/sellers and then taking their profits to the bank.
Hochschild is already using their production expertise to help GORO, and GORO is probably paying them large service fees for that work.
Bill Reid is not trying to maintain longterm CONTROL. He wants to retain a good share and let Hochschild eventually run the operations. Isn't Bill more of a business/investment person focused on growing value rather than an in-the-trenches mill operator.
A couple of quarters ago, someone asked him in a CC about eventually being bought out. He did not say he wanted to keep control; he implied he would be open to buyout eventually.
In any case, I think the Reid's "exit strategy" is to increase share value as much as possible over the next year and let Hochschild take control of over 50% of voting shares (thereby taking control of all drilling plans, mill operations and all other decisions).
They ARE now allowed to purchase up to 40%. Once they have been in commercial production for a year, they can buy more, so you have a year for GORO to appreciate. That said, Hochschild has not said they will buy all of GORO, just that they will buy enough to control.
Meanwhile let's just keep looking forward to a strong year ahead.
Hochschild interview says they want to acquire over 50% of GORO.
http://www.livinginperu.com/blogs/business/1149
Excerpt:
2009 has been quite dynamic with respect to your acquisitions in mining. You have increased your participation in Lake Shore Gold Corp (Canada) as well as Gold Resources Corporation (USA). Will your long term goal be to control both to gain more power in Latin America?
Gold Resources has a mine in Mexico, called El Aguila (in Oaxaca). It is extremely promising. We increased our stake to 27%.
Are you planning to acquire 50% or more of the shares?
Yes, definitely. We have already talked with them (a group of geologists) and they want to rely on us for production. They want to continue exploring and we will focus solely on production.
Would that also be the plan for Lake Shore Gold?
In Lake Shore we already had 40%, but this company merged with West Timmins, so our share percentage went down to 20%. So that is why we started to buy; we now have 36%. Our goal is to continue buying up to 50% plus one.
VVUS calls: just bought a few Jan2011 15 calls just for kicks.
I sold VVUS shares last week at $10 so feel like I left the train just before they fired up the engines.
All abooooooard !!!
C U down the tracks !!!
Gee, now I feel like Little Toot.
I think VVUS can ... I think VVUS can ... TOOOOOOT-TOOOOOOT!!!
VVUS study summary conclusions sound pretty good:
http://www.fda.gov/downloads/AdvisoryCommittees/CommitteesMeetingMaterials/Drugs/EndocrinologicandMetabolicDrugsAdvisoryCommittee/UCM218821.pdf
Conclusions (on page 17)
Current pharmacotherapies used in conjunction with diet and exercise can achieve weight loss of
approximately 5%, while surgical interventions, which can achieve >15% weight loss, are
invasive and not without postsurgical complications. There is currently no effective, noninvasive,
treatment that is capable of achieving a meaningful degree of weight loss of =10%, which has
been established by experts to be the goal of weight loss that commensurate with a significant
decrease in the severity of obesity-associated risk factors. There is, therefore, a treatment gap for
noninvasive therapies that achieve weight loss in the range of 10% to 15%.
QNEXA is comprised of low doses of two approved agents (phentermine and topiramate) that
produce weight loss through unique and complementary mechanisms. The weight loss response
with the combination is greater, and is achieved at significantly lower doses, than the maximal
response attained with either agent alone.
QNEXA is highly effective for weight loss across a broad population of obese subjects, with a
similarly broad range of obesity-related co-morbidities. Both by measures of central tendency
and response rates for various degrees of weight loss from baseline, QNEXA was found to be
markedly effective in a high proportion of subjects in promoting durable weight reduction and in
ameliorating the course of obesity-related co-morbidities. The proportion of QNEXA-treated
subjects attaining =10% total body weight loss was comparable across increasing BMI categories
at baseline up to a BMI >50 kg/m2. The benefits of weight reduction with QNEXA treatment on
cardiovascular, metabolic, and glycemic parameters were greatest for subjects with the most
marked disease characteristics at baseline.
Page 18 of 307
VIVUS, Inc. NDA 022580
VI-0521 (QNEXA®) Advisory Committee Briefing Document
VI-0521 (QNEXA®) Briefing Document
QNEXA treatment was safe and generally well tolerated by overweight and obese subjects with
and without weight-related co-morbidities. The most commonly observed adverse events,
notably paresthesia, dry mouth, dysgeusia, and insomnia, are well known and characterized side
effects of one or the other component agent and do not represent novel side effects engendered
through the combined pharmacology of the two drugs. There was a small increase in the
incidence of depression for the Top dose that was driven predominately by mild to moderate
events. These events occurred early and resolved without sequelae. Importantly, PHQ-9 and CSSRS
results did not identify a significant increase in QNEXA-treated subjects for development
of depression or occurrence of suicidal behavior or ideation.
For obese individuals, the adverse impact of obesity on health and quality-of-life outcomes is
well documented. Based on the results of the IWQOL and SF-36 questionnaires conducted in
support of the QNEXA NDA, durable weight loss and substantial improvements in weightrelated
co-morbidities appear to be associated with significant improvement in health-related and
quality-of-life outcomes for QNEXA-treated subjects.
QNEXA represents a significant advancement in the medical treatment of obesity and
management of weight-related co-morbidities, such as hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and
dyslipidemia. If left unchecked, the adverse impact of obesity on health outcomes is expected to
be unprecedented. The ability of QNEXA to produce durable weight loss can be expected to
contribute significantly toward ameliorating some of the consequences of obesity and weightrelated
co-morbidities. On the basis of the efficacy and safety data from clinical studies,
QNEXA demonstrates a favorable benefit-risk profile when used as an adjunctive measure in the
management of obesity
GORO: As the chief money-provider to GORO, Hochschild has had clear visibility to what GORO is doing and the potential that exists there.
I believe Hochschild will probably bid mid-2011 for whatever it doesn't own (shortly after the 40% restriction is lifted). The other big mutual fund that owns about 15% will probably opt to take their considerable profits at that point. The Reids and all other shareholders could vote against it, but Hochschild would already have the upper hand, so they could buy the remaining portion of GORO at a considerable discount to the probable reserves.
IMHO, buyout by Hochschild appears to be GORO mgt's exit strategy (w/ some greenmail payout to the Reids perhaps).
Palestine4Life, commercial production was a long time coming at the mill, and mgt lost considerable credibility for the long delays. I have invested a relatively large percentage of my portfolio with GORO (though I've taken some profits along the way rather than continue to buy as you have done).
Some questions for you, if you don't mind:
1. Don't you ever worry about the Reids' exit strategy? Just curious.
2. Also weren't you surprised that Jason would be named President?
3. I'm sure you must have talked to mgt a few times over the last couple of years. Who has been your primary contact when you call with questions?
Best Regards ....
Glad you asked; yes, I am on vacation. Wondering if the stock is up because the IR guy is on vacation, too.
Glad to see TRGD finally getting some traction again. Hoping it holds up well as we wait for more good news from TARM. TARM remains the key, I suppose, and they are supposedly doing well operationally at the mill.
Good luck to all us TRGD die-hards.
"panic buying" seems like an overly optimistic term for use with TRGD.