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Were actually building some really good support at $0.045
I have a feeling we are not going to hear any news about OS results until the ASCO presentation. Maybe the results are not so strait forward, that they rather wait till ASCO to explain. It will be interesting to find out later this week what the outstanding shares are, I have a feeling that conversions have slowed down.
Peasodos
"Most on this board have been burned quite a few times and I understand your frustration. Reverse split, after reverse split, all the while CEO awards himself and wife hundreds of millions of cheap warrants.....
That being said, I think that the genasense does work for folks that have low-normal ldh. After reading all of the articles etc, it appears that genasense works on many levels, not just down regulation of bcl-2. It appears that genasense may work with those that have low normal ldh because it is likely that their tumors etc are not as aggresive and there is better chance for genasense to keep the tumor "environment" stable so that the chemo has a chance to work. There is also some evidence that those with normal ldh have bcl-2 but those that have high ldh do not have high levels of bcl-2. Thus, maybe genasense works in those with low ldh because they might have more bcl-2. Overall, it appears that the mech of action for genasense is pretty complicated and there is a lot going on there beyond just downreglation of bcl-2.
Regardless of how it works, when you look at the data from the orginal phase III trial and focus on those patients with low-normal ldh, (who were pre-stratified prior to randomization) the results are very impressive.
Median OS of 12.3 vs. 9.9 months, a p value of .0009, a HR of .64, and a 95% confidence level that the efficacy levels (in the form of hazard ratios) were in the range of .49 to .87. The take away is that there is only a very, very small possibility that the difference you are seeing with genasense is the result of chance.
Can they repeat this in the AGENDA trial, we will see. One should note that with the past CI of 95% that, I believe, means that in only 5% of trials would one see a result that is outside of the two medians. One should also note with CI at the 95% level that there is only a very, very small chance that the HR is at .87, and converserly only a small chance that it is .49, and the best guess is that it is somewhere in the middle at around .64, (you basically have a 36% better chance being alive when you use genasense).
One should also consider the fact that in late 2009, the DSMB reviwed about half of the projected events (death of patient) and noted that the condition probability to hit a HR of .69 "exceeded 50%." I am not a stats expert, but my understanding is that this was a pretty high hurdle, and if one assumes that the next "half" of events behave similarly, Genta would hit the efficacy endpoint with a very high confidence level.
Finally, the patient population is almost indentical between the low normal patients in the first phase III and those that are in AGENDA with very similar ldh levels, age, gender, and type of tumor/melanoma percentages.
To be fair, one should question why AGENDA did not hit the PFS endpoint. Thus, one might argue that if there is no difference when patients begin progressing, why would patients recieving genasense live longer. I think there is some subjectivity as to when a patient begins to progress, but I admit that this is a bit concerning. I would note, however, that a recent drug for melanoma - ipilimumab -did not hit PFS, but did hit OS which may be an indication that PFS is not a good indicator of OS.
I would also note that the DSMB had the data for all patients for PFS, and had about 125 to 135 patients' worth of data to look at OS back in late 2009. I am speculating a bit here, but if one assumes that there can be no difference in OS because there was no difference in PFS, the DSMB would have probably stopped the trial for futility. Instead, despite the fact that the difference in PFS was not significant, the DSMB looked at the 125 to 135 events and must have seen a differnce in OS as they concluded that based on half of the events, the conditional probability to hit the endpoint exceeded 50%.
Again, we will see, I just wanted to point out that there is some science etc that backs up this drug, and there is a real possibility that the OS endpoint could be reached.
I would also recommend reading up on "p values" "confidence intervals" (just google the terms)
I do not want to give the impression that OS is a slam dunk. It just seems like there is a rationale as to why genasense would work with patients that have low normal ldh and the prior trial backs up this theory with very significant and clincally meaningful results.
It is hard to "manipulate" OS data as the patients die when they die (unfortunately) and the date of randomization is a known fact. With PFS you can have a lot of variance because people differ as to when disease progresses. Even in the first phase III trial there was a difference when genta's docs looked at the scans vs. when an independent doc looked. I believe, however, that for advanced stage IV melanoma, PFS is not a good indicator for OS. The other drug I mentioned demonstrated this.
It seems like with those with low normal ldh they have better tumor "biology" and there is something going on with genasense and these patients. From reading everything I suspect that (this is what some docs think) genasense helps keep the melanoma from becoming aggressive and/or hypoxic (when you have hypoxia (less oxygen) the tumor can get real aggressive and the chemo does not work as well). By keeping the tumors vascularized, the chemo can get to work and do its job. There is even evidence that genasense helps grow "blood vessels" for lack of a better term. Some speculate, again, that this helps the tumor from becoming hypoxic and helps the chemo to get to the tumor.
I was in Arena and GenVec so beware..... :)))))))) I was in Human Genome Science at a buck though and Ariad at 1.50 which are great stocks.
This is a long shot and there are a terrible amount of warrants out there. However, if we get some good results this will be a lot more than 5 cents (of course the opposite is true also).
GL "
Source: Maddogmadden2004
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_G/threadview?m=tm&bn=96872&tid=70804&mid=70804&tof=-1&rt=2&frt=2&off=1
http://books.google.com/books?id=TISy9Ul...
Here is a pretty good summary. You can go on the ASCO website or Pubmed website and find good abstracts and articles, respectively.
Excellent Post from Yahoo Forum that sheds some light on the Science behind Genta!
Peasodos
Interesting how Genta is initiating all these new trials prior to ASCO, maybe they are hoarding the OS results in preparation for a failure announcement so they can quickly transition into a new direction.
The delay for Genasense overall survival is no coincidence to me, data collect should already be warped up by now. Whatever the outcome I'm sure they know by now and just waiting for the right opportunity to release it.
Start off with good news about Tesetaxel trials, that's showing real promising results to the researchers and gearing towards going into phase III and then blow the lid on the Overall Survival results before ASCO.
The overwhelming majority of note holders are holding in anticipation of OS results. They just converting a very small fraction of what they could be doing.
Also insiders are holding, just sold some shares in the past, probably just for tax purposes. Still they have significantly large stakes in the company.
I'm gambling here, but at a cost average of $0.0502, some people are in a worse situation and probably own this in the dollar range. My advice for them is average down if they really believe in positive OS results.
At least in Vegas when you loose money you have a good time.
Looks like were headed lower, note conversions really have this stock locked down.
Peasodos
Guess what I recently just got filled at $0.0441, took almost a week but well worth it. Converting note-holders is whats keeping us down. Good OS and things could drastically change.
Peasodos
If we get negative results, note holders will convert everything and Genta will initiate another RS, probably 100:1. Anybody holding the stock will loose 80-95% of there investment.
If the results are positive your completely wrong. Like someone said this is a coin toss but at this point I believe the odds are more favorable for positive OS data. Once my standing limit order goes through at $0.044 Monday I will have 200,000 shares with a cost average around $0.05
GNTA is a gamble and that's why I'm in, fits my high risk investing style.
I bet you lost a lot of money with Genta and that's why your so upset and won't shut the ____ up! I really don't care what you or anyone else says as I invest based on my own DD and intuition.
Peasodos
I second that, Mods are asleep at the wheel here, SMTT is no were to be found. Somebody needs to shut this Arab up, it's very annoying.
Peasodos
I would expect us to dip a bit lower on Monday, then maybe I'll finally get filled at $0.044. Dilution and more conversions. At the rate this is going we might have closer to 200,000,000 shares outstanding by the time they announce OS results.
Peasodos
I'm still waiting and most likely will get filled tomorrow, then I could care less were the stock goes because I'm waiting for OS results.
Peasodos
Yes very weak buying today. I still think note holders will continue to convert, the selling pressure is still there. I still have my limit buy order at $0.044, maybe get filled tomorrow.
Well I guess if you like hearing a sugar coated negative on an investment you made.
Me I'm gambling on this one. I added it to my diversified portfolio of high risk investments.
Peasodos
Setting my Buy Limit to $0.044
How far do you think we'll fall before OS Results?
Who's ready to catch a falling knife? I will be on Wednesday, hopefully we drop to the 3 cent range as conversions continue.
What an opportunity, thank you note holders!
I think your gonna seriously regret this one just like DNDN.
Oh no, Check Engine Light!
Serious man, it feels like it. Took 30 minutes to fill my order. I guess all the sellers have dried up and buyers are just holding, but nice to see us hold around $0.06 for the last couple days.
Peasodos
Ray Ray Owns %5.3 of the company.
He's defiantly gambling it all on Genasense!
227,122,467/50(last RS) = 4,542,449.34
4,542,449/86,043,542 = %5.28
The shares he sold are nothing compared to what he owns, just pocket change to pay the bills, lol
Peasodos
Regardless I'm getting in tomorrow, but I think I can get in on an morning drop. This weekend is too long to and I think Thursday will be our last chance to get in before OS results.
Peasodos
Set my Buy limit order to $0.037
I see more downward pressure as conversions continue up till OS announcement.
Peasodos
Dilution! Increased Selling pressure.
I think this selling pressure will continue until news is released, due to the note conversions. I see us possible dipping below $0.04 by Thursday, if this happens I'm happy to add more Genta.
Like a second chance to get in at a low price before OS results hit the wires.
Time to gamble.
Peasodos
Nobody cares stop pouring the board with all your nonsense.
Keep it to a few posts a day to make your point not 100 posts of litter.
Insiders sell for many reasons, but they only buy of one reason, they think the stock is undervalued!
IBOX Updated
Call me chicken, but I bailed from my plans of buying this stock. Was going to play the GNTA pump and dump, but just have a feeling things are going to make a turn for the worse.
Good Luck to the rest of you.
How I'm going to Play GNTAD In the next few weeks.
Buying shares at these low level, betting on there being a pump before long-term survival results. Hopefully the stock doubles before the news so I can sell half to get my initial investment out and let the rest of the shares ride.
If good news yay I have some shares, if bad news, yay I didn't loose anything because I sold my initial investment.
Either way looks like a win win play. Alternatively I may just sellout before the announcement just to play the GNTAD Pump and Dump game, lol.
Is GNTAD a Dump and Dilute Scam?
Dump and dilute schemes, where companies repeatedly issue shares by no valid reason other than than taking investors' money away. Companies using this kind of scheme tend to periodically reverse-split the stock.
Manipulation and Dilution is the name of the game. GETAD is just becoming more worthless by the day. Remember we can still drop to sub-penny levels again. Good Luck
Not Halted the E is still there:
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/IAGIE/quote
Peasodos
The E was added to the name because they are overdue for filing their financial's and will remain until they file it. The stock still trades as IAGIE you can view it on yahoo finance:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IAGIE.OB
Peasodos
With RJ's calculations for Brian's 2012 projected 10mil profits pre-tax:
$10 mil net/approx. 7.3 mil os = $1.38 EPS x 10 PE = $13.80
Adjusted for 11.3 OS fully diluted
$10 mil net/approx. 11.3 mil os = $0.88 EPS x 10 PE = $8.84 2012 target
Let's see what happens.
Congratulations you broke the silence on this board, first post in 4 months. I totally agree, company has defiantly turned around for the best.
Next on the agenda is a Bankruptcy filing. The crooks here robbed more than you think. Story is just starting to unfold. Good Luck.
The CEO is on a IA Global buying spree!
Brian has purchased 18,700 shares in the past week. A very good precursor to good news!
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1077634.htm
I told you guys!
Go to "Member Pitches" for QASP, scroll to the bottom and you will see my Pitch Aug 02, 2010 02:26 PM
"Most worthless stock I own. Crooks run the company, I advise to sell."
I don't know if anyone out there took the advice, anyways god bless.
Wow look at that BID/ASK Spread:
BID: 14 cents
ASK: 65 cents
115 shares dropped the stock 38 cents. Where is the MM to fill the gap? Now were a $1 million market cap. What a joke. Just patiently waiting for good news.
IA Global's Roll-up Strategy:
What is a Roll-Up?
A roll up is the consolidation of several small businesses under one roof, usually through a publicly held holding company. The concept works extremely well with mom and pop business owners. The roll-up strategy can be very successful if you have capable management steering the ship and an industry where the synergies for consolidation make sense. Roll-ups provide greater efficiencies such as merging back office accounting, marketing and purchasing. The roll-up also provides an exit strategy for mom and pop owners who are seeking to retire in the not to distant future. Being associated with a larger public company that is national or international in scope also adds credibility and transparency to current and future customers. Typically, a the holding company pays for an acquisition with a combination of stock and cash, and usually puts limits on how quickly the seller can liquidate the shares.
http://reverseshellmerger.com/2007/05/roll-up-strategy/
Hey RJ,
What are your latest thoughts on IA Global? The timing of the RS, the one week delay for the Zest acquisition, the new proposed solar acquisition? A lots been going on lately and I'd like to hear your valued opinion.
Thanks