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scstocks,
Unfortunately I hadn't hedged a thing. I was simply expecting a pull back since dow 8000 and nothing of the sort ever came. I had a wish list of stocks I was going to enter on such a pullback and it never came so I hung onto my shorts and played the bear etf's expecting the inevitable. Again, nothing that makes sense seems to prevail these days. The only real hedge I had was the that of the thought of an improving economy would ultimately increase my daily retail cash flow. Unfortunately this has not been the case either. As of late, I seem to be in a cut throat retail market with ever increasing costs.
My mistakes have come from giant risk taking over the past several years. One of those risks ending in a massive loss was in Cortex. I've lived and died by the sword since the dot com era and am too stubborn to think those type of jewels no longer exist. I had so much luck playing high risk empty companies back then, I thought I could continue that same mentality playing bio tech and energy. I've had no luck what so ever over the past several years. At some point I will reenter the staples and maybe dabble a bit in some high risk, high reward arenas but as for now I am simply waiting for a correction and praying somehow Cortex can get out of its own way and make something happen for its shareholders sometime soon. Any type of buyout 50 cents and up would offer me a nice chunk of dry powder to reenter the market during a time of crisis. So it's become a waiting game for me.
>>Companies have to pay more for basic materials (input) and due to high unemployment they cannot pass all the rise in input costs into the prices of their products. Thus you see margin compression and a reduction in profit margins.<<
I see this on a daily basis at my restaurants. Many back of the house wholesale groceries have tripled in cost over the past 18 months and my bottom line retail margins are shrinking rapidly. With more and more competitors giving items away just to have warm bodies enter their doors, it has become a weekly battle to manufacture organic profit. Raising prices at this moment in time to offset wholesale cost increases would be retail suicide. This appears to be the case in many retail spaces not just in my industry. This weeks food crisis comes from a recent crop freeze in Mexico. My produce... specifically tomatoes and green peppers have tripled in cost. These items are used in bulk in virtually ever recipe in my Southwest restaurant. It is impossible for me to pass that kind of cost increase onto my ever so frugal customer. This type of increase is not isolated. We have seen it across the board in dairy, flour, meat, fish, etc. A crop freeze is typical hyped propaganda which is used to redirect consumer focus from the real elephant in the room. At some point many restaurants will dissolve due to ever increasing costs and shrinking profit margins. This is not necessarily a bad thing. It's just unfortunate for me, as it is my current livelihood. At some point however, this will burden the consumer more and more as the remaining restaurants that have survived the storm will begin to raise their prices dramatically at the onset of a diminishing supply and lack of competition. Again, this type of activity will be mirrored throughout more than just the restaurant industry. This economic cancer will move into grocery stores, then consumer electronics, clothing retail, automotive etc. Once people begin paying higher prices for the likes of groceries and gasoline, clearly the less likely they will be willing to spend their remaining paychecks on a new tv, cell phone, or car and so the ripple effect continues... Economics 101. So from a hands on retail standpoint, the snowball is forming, albeit very slowly. I still agree with you that a collapse is inevitable. The problem for me has been trying to time it. Good luck with all your recent tragedy and future endeavors. F4T.
Bigworld and Scstocks,
Well it does appear that the markets can go up indefinitely without so much as a reasonable and necessary correction. I am severely trounced on my short and triple bear plays. Way too deep to consider a full recovery. I must say this appears more of a wide awake bull market than a secular bear. Unless there is further civil unrest in the middle east and/or a sort of world wide cataclysmic event, I can't see this thing turning over. Earnings and forecasts seem in line for continuing uptrend. I have to say BW, I think we were faked out of shorts here regardless of how you feel about the instability of a Quantitively Eased economy consisting of an endless supply of newly printed greenbacks. I'm done chasing the doomsdayers on this one. Interest rate hikes and rational inflation seems near but I don't think so much so that it will freeze consumer confidence and spending.
Good news though, I made a briefcase full on my hometown Packers throughout the playoffs and SuperBowl and had a great time doing it. So I guess all could be worse. You have got to love Aaron Rodgers...he is the real deal and a class act.
I must say from a retail standpoint however, things are still pretty lethargic and from visiting Vegas twice over the past four weeks, they don't seem to be near full recovery either. This could all be signs of a more frugal and savings oriented consumer created by the recent recession which is not necessarily a bad thing. In my mind, this economic thaw will take several more years to get this country anywhere near the growth rate it experienced half a decade ago.
2 years. Non event. Waste of $11,000,000 in cash, share dilution, share price at or near all time low. I'd say management is doing a great job. If there was value in this company or in the Ampakine platform, it has deceased. Why didn't they pursue the ADHD indication in the first place if that is the obvious path? Ridiculous. Sell the whole shebang and move on so I can quit looking at this POS on a daily basis. And don't hit me up with the why don't I sell my shares crap. I'm simply waiting for one menial prediction by management or this board of experts to come true.
Wow, was this worth the wait, like an ineffective laxative. Thanks Mark, you would have had to crap something out sooner or later. I feel like the guy in the crying game. As much as you love cortex, it looks like it has a penis. Can't they come up with something for these drugs, like an OTC focus factor of sorts. They must have some residual value at a low dose level. Just find a way to generate some revenue for Christ's sake. Ombow you better start praying and get Mark to follow thru on forfeiting their salaries or we got more dilution on the way. Back to work. Go CORTEX!...like cheering at the special olympics. Sorry for the tasteless puns but this is ridiculous.
NEWS:
CORX.OB renames stock symbol POS.OB.
2011 Company Forecast
A. To dilute existing share count of POS.OB for minimal revenue. This revenue to be strictly used for management salaries and lab rat luxuries, like booze, broads, and foreign cheese.
B. To minimize shareholder value thru such dilution.
C. To miss any manufactured timelines so drastically as to be not taken seriously on any future endeavors or guidance.
D. To make false promises and vague commentary thru random and selective personal emails.
E. To secure funding near years end to repeat all of the above.
Thanks to all shareholders for your support of POS.OB as we look forward to having a molecule available for public consumption by 2014. Refer to item C.
Cheers. Go Packers. Join FOOD4THOUGHT in Las Vegas Superbowl weekend in hopes of recouping your POS.OB loses on the Packers -2.5 over the Pittsburg Steelers. Big Ben will find himself daydreaming of his fantasy of being locked in a restroom with an unwilling dallas cowboy cheerleader as Green Bay takes big hair and the rest of the Pitt "D" to the woodshed!
As pessimistic as I am about this company, I have to agree with ememem here. I am certain that a tag from a CEO splashed on the front page of a website has some bearing of diligence. Not to mention that a high profile charity such as the MIchael J. Fox Foundation would also clearly perform their due diligence well before cutting a check or singing the potential praises of the ampakine platform. I'm not sure how many projects MJFF is currently funding, but Cortex may have found their money tree within the Michael J. Fox Foundation for future development of other indications. Something is most definitely brewing here. Whether it comes to pass in a timely fashion without further dilution to the shareholder remains to be seen. <--- That's a laughable statement at best.
"The Michael J. Fox Foundation will do whatever it takes to speed promising Parkinson's research toward clinical testing and patients. While our strong emphasis is on translational and clinical research, we also fund high-risk/high-reward discovery work to help keep novel approaches flowing into the drug development pipeline. New funding initiatives are announced throughout the year. Sign up to receive e-mail alerts whenever a new program is announced."
"The Michael J. Fox Foundation is helping to speed up drug development for PD with innovative strategies that identify roadblocks along the therapeutic development pipeline. By sharing the risk of drug development with academic and industry researchers alike, we hope to increase the movement of new treatments into the clinic."
Or they have reasonably positive SA data and are trying to orchestrate a massive dilution to be executed immediately after a pr puts a bounce in the share price. This seems sketchy and borderline fraudulent, but as many have said before, its not like anyone is paying attention to this piece of crap penny stock anymore anyway. They need money and they can simply say that analyzing the data took longer than expected and release the data so it times out for them financially.
Spot on!!
Ombow,
It's a valiant effort but irrelevant. What's he going to say that you could put any clout in? He has misguided his shareholders since day one. Pointless, but for comic relief I'd like to hear the response. Poor company with piss poor management and direction, now wasting away its recently new found cash position. Pathetic and lacks excuse.
PCIO:
I'm selling all my TZA and picking up all the PCIO I can get! Jk of course. I'm always too late to the party, literally in this case. Ombow, you lucky dog. Good call, you gave us the nod but no one was listening. Leave it to the Jerry Garcia look alike to hit this one out of the park. 2,000,000 shares...I thought you were a nut! It must have been God that directed you to this one cuz I don't know of anyone else that would have even had it on the radar. You may be able to start your recreational soup kitchen after all! Congrats are in order. You're clearly doing better than me as of late. F4T.
BW,
The way this market is behaving, only something catastrophic will roll this market over. Regardless of the doom and gloom scenarios out there, the market will not bite. This government will continue to inject printed money regardless of future consequence. The game is rigged now more than ever. I hate to say it, but I am getting out of my shorts. I went back into my full TZA position at 28 and change and am getting my ass handed to me. I have some margined shorts that are being called and I don't see anything near term to flip this market. There continues to be more wall street gurus predicting disaster over going long. That in itself leads me to believe the market will continue to trend upward. Once everyone is on board, and sidelined money reenters the market in higher volume, then and only then will the legs get chopped out. I am not certain that this will happen anytime soon...maybe Q1 or Q2 2011. I don't think I can manage the pain until then. This market has me back to rooting for cortex to prevail. That in itself is sad. I won't join this market but I can no longer fight it. GLTY.
Ombow,
I guess I'm not alone in my thoughts.
Bill Ratigan is another voice of reason you could learn a lot from.
The Federal Reserve is a Ponzi Scheme:
http://dailybail.com/home/eliot-spitzer-the-federal-reserve-is-a-ponzi-scheme-inside-t.html
Ombow,
I never intended our argument to involve "G"od, you simply introduced him into the equation of my analysis. I'm sure you can see how a preteen boy might tie "G"od to a perverted priest preaching the word of "G"od within the house of "G"od. This is a personal argument for me so I'll choose not to continue it. Regarding a supreme being and faith, to each his own.
Back to business. All businesses throughout the globe clearly require customers to maintain their viability. My argument is not that I need customers to protect my investment, that is obvious, my argument is that government involvement in business at any level is criminal. Particularly when the government takes ownership of a publicly traded company. There exists no equality or fairness when it comes to the open hand of the government. The closing of GM's doors would not have destroyed my business. Would it have had a immediate negative effect on the US economy? The answer to that is an obvious yes. Private capital would have done something with GM and its factories. If not, is it not possible that Toyota, our nations number one car builder, may have taken over some of GM's plants. Or maybe an overseas Toyota competitor would have come to the US to steal some of Toyota's ever increasing market share. There are all kinds of different scenarios that could have played out had the government allowed GM to fail, some of which could have improved the product and number of jobs that GM held. Again I say, let due process take its course.
Regarding my business, you will only see what you choose to see. I do offer profit share and full benefits to my full time managers. Most of my other staff is transient part time help. They use me much as I use them. I am used as a temporary source of income for students and bored housewives. My back of the house staff is paid competitively. I can tell you that until you own your own business you will never be able to have a logical argument with me regarding distribution of profit. I am nearly 2 million dollars indebted to the bank and SBA. I am on the hook for the next 14 plus years of my life for payback of that money. Inflation and raising interest rates will ultimately destroy me if I don't find a way to build a strong cash position. I can't very well distribute every last dime of profit in order to satisfy the needs of every disloyal employee. I as a business owner have to protect my ability to pay a mortgage and fixed costs during downtimes and changes within the credit market . There is little consistency in my industry.
My point regarding my ability to operate successfully during recessionary times is that I am a hands on business owner and will do all I can to maintain profitability. An economic depression would obviously have had a more negative impact on my business had there not been some sort of economic stimulus. I'm simply saying that a government that recklessly prints money then taxes a small business owner at a higher rate has just as much of a negative impact on a business that would have had to weather the storm of an unstimulated economic recession. This administration is putting off the inevitable. I don't see things being any better than they were a year ago and turning up the presses wouldn't seem like the best answer to me as a long term solution.
I have a proposition for you. You mentioned that you currently own 220k plus shares of CORX. If CORX ever reaches $5 a share, you can practice what you preach. By that I mean use your million to open a business and create jobs for the unemployed. And make 100 percent certain that you pay your employees far more than the industry standard as well as making sure they get the bulk of the profits of your investment and business concept. I can assure you that you will be a quickly bankrupt business owner. There needs to be a difference in scales for so many reasons. I take my work home with me seven days a week. I created the concept of my business, established the credit to purchase the property and equipment through hard work and diligence, and manage its efficiency to maintain profitability on a daily basis by wearing the hats of 10 different people. You truly can't tell me that you believe low level employees deserve the same compensation as the creator of the business. It's apparent through some of your posts that you wish to make lots of money through the purchase of stocks. I also recall that you were campaigning for for donations of 100k plus for placement of ads and such on your website. I believe greed is one of the seven deadly sins. You clearly have the desire to be rich. Now I have made a lot of money in the stock market during the dot.com era. I could have easily hoarded that money for selfish reasons and used it to take strict care of myself and only myself. Instead I put it to work and created jobs for many as well as building long term financial stability for myself and my family. I'm not certain your message of "spreading the wealth" would pertain to you as you would like it to pertain to others. Maybe you can prove me wrong. I can tell you that over my 15 years in business I have given tens of thousands of dollars in donations to local and nationally recognized charities. And believe or not, some of those donations ended up in the hands of catholic priests running area fund raisers. As a "G"od fearing man, I hope some day you do indeed get to practice what you preach.
Ombow,
>>I want to add something to my post to food4thought. Yes, unions have gone way overboard. As one example, the UAW made it so that Japanese cars, which were also better built, were less expensive than cars coming out of Detroit. The high wages of union workers are detrimental to the American automobile industry and add on costs to the American consumer to pay for their exorbitant wages, health insurance, and pension benefits.
Similarly, electrical, plumbing, carpentry, construction industry, etc., unions add on exorbitant costs to public and private companies who in many instances are forced to hire union employees, which costs are then passed on to the taxpayer and general public.
Government workers', hospital workers', etc. unions have also added on to the burdens of the taxpayer and general public. It's an untenable financial system which is bound to ultimately have negative repercussions for the American economy as a whole.<<
With all of the above, I fully agree.
Regarding my customers, it is my responsibility to trim costs and create value and market that to the public in order to get people through my doors. Nothing the government can do will help this with the exception of a direct stimulus check to the masses. You are right, sensing that people will remove dining out as an immediate way to save money. However, what you don't understand is that I buy bulk wholesale and still almost can put a better than homemade meal for about the same price as someone paying grocery store retail and turning on their stove. There are ways in all sorts of economies to make money. Again I will take my chances. I cherish every customer and provide, in my personal opinion, a far better product and service for the price of my competitors. On a daily basis I strive to improve.
I do understand that our current economic state was due to a lack of regulation and was contributed to by greedy ceos and bankers. My comments do not apply to those individuals or corrupt ceos of publicly traded companies. They should all be imprisoned. There will always be Bernie Madoffs of the world. My comments refer to the honest and hard working members of this country. Yes there is strength in numbers and the masses may change the direction of this country, I'm simply looking out for myself and my family during these difficult times. That in my mind is fending for myself.
Regarding the welfare family, that was my point. They choose to depend on the government to survive rather than finding any means necessary t be self supportive. I think people should be thrown out onto the streets and forced to learn about birth control if they cannot afford to support their own family. Would you like America to resemble Africa? History shows that high unemployment rates drive up the birth rate. Wow, that is about as senseless of a statement imaginable. If the government would stop supporting these reckless births maybe people would quit having children they cannot afford to raise. I'm not asking for a knee jerk change in the current system, I'm simply stating that this mentality is destructive to our society.
>>You apparently believe in the dog-eat-dog philosophy. It doesn't matter if you screw the other guy as long as you make it. Greed is good. The heck with fairness. No, we are all in this together, and it is only when we realize that what is good for one is good for all, and what is good for all is good for one, that we have any hope of getting things right.<<
I don't see how fairness plays any role in your argument. I think it is more than fair that the individuals that take the risk reap the reward. If anything I think the laws protect the lazy and manipulators of the system. That in my mind is unfair to the working class. Why should I work my tail off everyday, invest my own hard earned dollars, create jobs for countless people(I employee about 100 part and full time workers), only to be taxed at a higher rate because more people choose to sit on their ass rather than go out and find work. I'm not screwing anybody so I'm not sure where you get that impression. If anything I'm being screwed by the system. I'm not greedy, I work for what I have and feel I deserve the fruits of my labor. There is nothing greedy about that. Greed is hoping to pump a stock in order to make a quick buck. Be careful where you point your finger.
>>"I alone will determine my fate on this planet." You really don't.<<
I fully respect your commitment to your religion. Although I was raised Catholic, I unfortunately cannot join in on your enthusiasm of that religion. You see I lived across the street from our church as a lad in a small unincorporated community and without getting to graphic, I can simply say that our priest did many bad things to many young men. And when he was discovered, he was simply transfered to another church out of state. As an alter boy, I was lucky enough or unconsciously shrewd enough to thwart off his advances. This priest was brash enough to call my home and ask my mother to have me over for private tutorials. Thankfully my mother respected my wishes when I told her that I wouldn't go. Had she not, I may be a far more damaged individual than I already am. So religion plays no part in my life. I do have a belief in a higher power and do have spiritual faith. I treat people as I wish to be treated but that has no significance on how I manage my business. I've been duped and conned by charities and employees throughout the years as a businessman. I've learned to not trust the words of a stranger. Everything I do now, I do with extreme diligence. If you believe your god put those young boys in the hands of that priest, then your god is a sick and demented being. So it does appear that I will alone determine my fate. I won't wait for an act of god to save me or the government to lend a slippery hand when times get tough.
When I say good luck to you , I genuinely mean it.
Gfp,
Steve Wynn feels the same way as John Chambers. Pride and bullheadedness of our politicians stand further in the way of economic benefit. Not only has legislation forced companies overseas it now won't let them put their money back to work within our borders. That would be like me telling a customer from another city not buy a meal at my restaurant because he or she hasn't created jobs or revenue with my city. Its no wonder other countries are quickly gaining a strong foothold on the US GDP. Truly ridiculous.
Ombow,
>>No, no one fends for himself. We're all in this together. We're interdependent.<<
Not true at so many levels.
One Example:
My 12 yr old daughter has a friend that has five brothers and sisters and her mom is again expecting twins. She just told my daughter that the state paid for her braces. Neither her mom nor her dad work and they have family members stacked in a 3 bedroom apartment like cord word. This twelve year old girls parents could care less about where their 12 year old daughter is 90% of the time yet they continue to have more children to collect their government supplied check. Three generations live in their three bedroom apartment so they can minimize their expenses and hoard their government paper. This is one of millions of people that are fleecing American tax payers and hard working individuals like me. Not only are these bandits stealing from the government and american tax payers, think about their significantly adverse affect on the country's natural resources. Maybe population control isn't such a bad idea after all.
I am a doer. I'm not a talker and I don't want or need handouts. No one needs to be concerned about how I will manage my businesses during a double dip recession or depression other than me. I made my bed and only I will be responsible for my mortgage payments and success or fate of my businesses. I will not receive any bail outs regardless of what this administration slings. I simply need big brother to get the hell out of my way and let me run my business to the best of my ability. I was broke at 27 years old and found a way. I will find a way again if economic times dictate me to do so. My dad, the second oldest of 11 children, dropped out of high school to work and help pay bills around their household. He has been a successful business man for over 40 years now without a high school diploma or college education. He never gave me a dime and I respect him for that. He built his business from the ground up in the late 60's and survived the Carter era and 18% plus interest rates requiring to hold three jobs to keep the bank off his doorstep. This country can endure the closing of the doors of corporations like GM and AIG. The doers of America will step in and create a new and better product along with just as many jobs as the current GM and AIG if the government simply stays the hell out of the way. Worse is yet to come.
If people over borrowed and had eyes bigger than their wallets, they should be out on the street. I hold no mercy for the over indulgent. I've paid my mortgage and bills on time for the passed 16 years of my life and where lies my reward from this government. I've lived within my means and I can still go to the bank to draw credit even in these credit frozen times. Let people suffer their consequences and let businesses fail that refused to manage their bottom line. Listen to Rick Santelli from CNBC if you want a voice of reason.
You and Haysaw are probably pro-union too. Another organization that should be abolished. It has no place in todays modern day society. Back when slave labor was rampant and rights of workers were jeopardized the union did create a sense of fairness for the worker, today they simply stand in the way of growth and cost control. Did you know that GM asked their factory workers to take a $10 an hour reduction in pay from $37 an hour to $27 an hour to help save the company prior to the bailouts and the union stepped in and flat out rejected GM's proposal. Their union put many of its members out of work rather than allowing GM the opportunity to streamline its costs to maintain profitability to keep factories open. Now I'm not saying that large bonuses and such didn't contribute to GM's and AIG's demise but options existed other than government bailouts paid for by the honest and hardworking class of America.
If you truly want to see how ridiculous your statement is, try borrowing your friends or family members some money with the promise of them to pay it back. You will know quickly how alone you are.
Maybe you and Haysaw are like the guy that spilled hot coffee in his crotch and sued for millions of dollars because he too is not responsible for anything he does on this planet. Again I will fend for myself and take full responsibility for my actions, stupid or otherwise.
As is apparent, we are not all in this together. I wish all on this board well but you alone will answer to your god and I alone will determine my fate on this planet. You may have the same goals as many and abide by the same social laws of this country but your efforts alone will determine where you will and how you will sleep at night. This country and your neighbor will not save you, you will need to stand up for yourself and be counted or you are not any different than the many sheeple headed for the cliffs edge. Good luck to you!
Yes, yes, and yes. Market I agree with you whole heartedly. Grid lock and a shrinking government is the only way to turn this mess around. Let free market capitalism regain control of this country.
>>2) Recipient of the Noble Peace Prize<<
Explain to me the reasons this prize was given, other than the obvious.
>>3) Overcoming the insurmountable--passing the Health Care Bill.<<
If you see this as a good thing, then you are undoubtedly one of the many that expects a handout and needs big brother to take care of you. I am happy to provide for myself and my family and don't need a group of higher than thou to tell me when I can and where I should go for my healthcare.
>>1) Stabilizing the US and World markets (in the midst of a full blown, international, capitulating crisis when he took over, mind you), at least for the time being (but plenty of time for people to reevaluate their present and future while preserving what they have)<<
Band aid on a broken leg. Putting off a problem doesn't solve it. Printing money and passing an insurmountable debt onto future generations doesn't seem to me as a job well done. Again I will take my own chances and fend for myself. Too little to late for this administration to pretend they are saving companies and handing out money to stabilize the economy. I have servers/waiters that request a 20 hour or less per week schedule so they can maintain their state and federal benefits. This is a widespread problem. People choose to stand in the unemployment line rather than do a job they feel is beneath them. I have no problem being a one man show if necessary. Yes I will take out the garbage. I will also serve and cook if necessary. The government wants you as an american to need them, hence extending unemployment benefits and passing the healthcare bill. If you think a government that takes from the hard working and gives to the lazy is sensible, then you are undoubtedly one of the many that is incapable of providing for yourself. Self preservation is a beautiful thing. It requires people to be creative and think outside the box.
Regarding self policing, there is an enormous distance between small business, whom I represent, and corporate america and wall street. I am simply saying that I don't need big brother watching over me or provide more regulation in order to operate my business successfully. I've been audited three times in my short business life and each time ended up paying peanuts after 18 months of investigation. It's unnecessary to bleed the little guy when simply downsizing government saves more money then nickel-and-diming` the entrepreneurs of america. There are many reasons corporations choose to flee this country. Watch the CNBC interview with Steve Wynn regarding regulation of his industry and the difference in appreciation he receives as a business owner in Macau. China is welcoming american companies with open arms and thus allowing them to become successful. There seems nothing wrong to me with a policy that allows the person that takes all the risk and is willing to put up all the capital to yield the profits. This country punishes the risk taker and the hardworking and creates legislation to protect the close minded and lazy. I work 70 hrs a week and clearly deserve to make more than those that chose to work far less. I will agree with you if your argument is directed at CEO's of publicly traded companies and wall street mongers. Then again to big to fail allows them to play by their own set of rules. Your government seemingly protects them, while the small guy gets raped on a daily basis.
nickel-and-dime \nick"el-and-dime"\, v. t. [imp. & p. p.
nickel-and-dimed or nickeled-and-dimed; p. pr. & vb. n.
nickel-and-diming or nickeling-and-diming.]
1. To harass or annoy with petty demands or for trivial
reasons; specifically, to insist on minor concessions in a
negotiation.
[PJC]
2. To weaken or impair gradually or by small steps; as, to be
nickel-and-dimed into bankruptcy by the operating
overhead. [informal]
[PJC]
ombow,
Allowing government to save a business of any size is a mistake. It's a socialist move. The best case scenario for any failing business would be to let due process take its course. Force the sale of a poorly ran business and put it into the hands of the more capable. There will always be entrepreneurs willing to pick up the pieces of a poorly ran or bankrupt company for pennies on the dollar, streamlining it and making it profitable in the process. Safety nets only add more greed and laziness to the equation. Knowing the government is in your hip pocket creates a poor sense of necessity and urgency. Allowing the mongers a second chance is like telling your child it's OK to steal the first time, just don't do it again. Entitlement consumes cooperate America. The Democrats have a way of giving the undeserved a second chance and taking from the haves to give to the have nots. I'm all for charity but only at the private level. The people that work the hardest deserve the fruits of their labor. Private enterprise has a way of self policing. Grid lock is best for this country. Given a choice, I'm a Republican. I will fend for myself. I'm willing to do dishes and take out the garbage in order for my business to succeed. Maybe more people in this country should be willing to get there hands dirty. There would be far less unemployed if that were the case. This government makes it easy for the fat and lazy to remain fat and lazy. There exists plenty of jobs if you look hard enough. The reason illegal immigrants continue to enter this country is because there are plenty of jobs available to them that the average american is unwilling to do. This nation is full of people that prefer a hand out over a hard days work. The Democrats condone and support that mentality and behavior. In my opinion, you should have to qualify to vote in this country. If that was the case, I assure Obama wouldn't be president today. A campaign of change targeting the poor and the youth of America is what got Obama elected. He will be considered one of the worst presidents of all time. The last thing I need is more unsuccessful and immature people dictating the path of this country. There's a reason the rich get richer. It's because they try harder, tend to be more educated, are willing to take on risk to seek reward, eat better, exercise more, don't drink or smoke as compared to the poorer class. I prefer to follow the lead of success rather than that of the group the encourages people to enter the unemployment line. My two cents as a business owner.
Bigworld,
Based on a recent poll by CNBC a few weeks ago, it appeared the nation had gone majority bearish which lead me to believe the market was in for a rally. CNBC ran the poll when the SP had tested the 1060 range a few short weeks ago and 56% of the poll takers/viewers, likely from main street America, said they believed a double dip recession was likely. In my mind, when Joe Blow begins to feel this way and that a market crash is on the horizon, it's time to go long. You should have sensed that. There was market negativity all over CNBC. And what do you know, shortly thereafter, the market trends upward and the S&P surpasses it's 100 and 200 day moving averages. I was lucky enough to cash out of some of my TZA near 40 but still hold 2000 shares. I think the inevitable is near but the market seems to have gained strength. I will hold my remaining TZA and shorts but fear the next 4-6 weeks may be painful for the bears. There needs to be some sort of catastrophic event to create a massive selloff. Right now, even though the volume has been weak, there appears to be money entering the markets. I agree the basis for this rally seems misguided and weak but yet here it is. So hang on to your berries, the smoke and mirror effect can't last forever.
HC,
I am a restaurant owner in the midwest, and have been for the past 11 years. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the consumer has become much more value oriented at least in my neck of the woods. I am in a constant state of marketing specials in order to keep our volume in tact. Over the past two years bottom line sales have remained about the same but our margins have tightened dramatically and when the fed begins raising interest rates and inflation returns you will see many restaurants and small retail shops close their doors. I am a hands on business owner and find ways to cut costs daily. Many chains do not have that luxury. I can tell you too, that all vendors in my field are also doing what they can to maintain volume business, from dumpsters to cable TV. I have decreased my fixed subscriptions dramatically over the past 18 months. This has a spiral effect. Only so many companies will survive the battle for the same customer by reducing price whether it's the retail diner or business supplier. Food costs have elevated which obviously hurts more and more restaurants but I think they will deflate during the course of the next year. Soon there after the ship will more than likely correct itself and many small business owners will fall victim to inflation and a lack of consumer spending. It will be interesting to see what spin the fed can put on the nationwide failure of our country's small businesses. A country built by small business has now been decimated by government manipulation, debt, and banker greed. Our children's futures will pay the price and our government has willingly put the control of our country's growth solely in the hands of the banks. Why do you think so many businesses are hoarding cash. They know consumer spending is tightening and the credit markets have closed their doors. This speaks of very tough times ahead for commercial business within our boarders. Not to mention that most restaurants deal on volume and with government intervention pertaining to statewide smoking bans, obesity and non drinking campaigns they are slowing gaining control bit by bit of my customers social mindset and choices keeping them from entering our doors. More and more people are drinking and smoking in their basements and backyards. Just what the government wants. A camera at every intersection and a GPS on every cell phone. Control, control, control. Welcome to the new socialistic america. The government knows what you want and will be happy to make up your mind for you! F4T
MF4,
I too feel your pain. I had so much success during the dot com bubble that I thought I could trade the market. I've lost almost all that I've gained thru the '99 and 2000 era but fortunately for me some of those profits went to commercial properties and I've had decent success through out the past several years in the food and retail business. So the stock market was a stepping stone for me. I can't resist but to play it as I am a gambler at heart. It does seem at times that the market will reverse the minute I hit the sell or buy button but I have taken the attitude of realizing short-term profit rather than going after the big bagger. I limit my down side through stop/sells and try and ride the market trend which I currently see as a bear market. I am just waiting for the analysts and CNBC to start piling on the bull market bullshit to start shorting again. It was just after CNBC and Cramer started pitching DOW 9500 that the market corrected it self. I am a glass 1/2 empty kind of guy and will always bet on the team everybody hates. So I hope to hear bull, bull, bull soon and I'll feel better about my TZA play. Watch Richard Dreyfuss in "Let it Ride" to get my take on the market and gambling in general. Essentially bet on the horse no one has a dime on. F4T
Well I just picked up 5000 shares of tza so bring on the crash of the century. All I can say guys is that my retail stores are doing well and consumer spending in my area appears to be decent albeit very value oriented. So I consider tza a hedge against a future retail downturn. Increased taxes and inflation will also have a huge negative impact on my businesses bottom line so the future under this administration, in my opinion, is bleak should they push through tax hikes and begin to increase interest rates.
Cramer = The Wall Street Jester
HC,
Use your GTC option which means the order is good until cancelled or filled.
Hey Bigworld,
I just covered my TNA short which I entered at $47 and change. I got squeezed a week and a half ago when I margined it heavily at $42 and it ran to $51. Had to cover and lost a pretty big chunk. Got back in at $47ish and thankfully got it all back and then some today. I decided to take a breather for the day. Do you see another down day tomorrow? I'm thinking not with no real weighted news coming to the market. Just gauging your thoughts. I'm trading the swings and think a S&P retreat above 1150 is probably with a larger downturn after that.
Haysaw,
Regarding Costa Rica, my girlfriend's family owns two small homes in the mountainous region of Ojochal. It is kind of primitive but they do have running water and electricity. There are monkeys in the trees surrounding their cabina style homes. The Ticos are friendly and I whooped a whole bunch of them in billiards at a local pub near their homes. The land is cheap and the buildings are equally as cheap. Their views are amazing and the beaches where they live are secluded and extraordinary. The only problems they encounter are usually in regards to the terrain to and from their homes during the rainy season and the length of time it takes to get something done by a Tico laborer. The fresh fish and ceviche is amazing but avoid the beef unless it is imported. Bird watchers are abundant as Costa Rica has the largest collection of birds in the world. The roads through the mountains are treacherous and time consuming. If you wish to avoid the shuttle ride you can opt for a small plane flight deemed the Fright Flight that only lasts 30-45 mins from San Jose to Ojochal. It is called fright flight for a reason as the they fly low and it is very bumpy. The bus ride takes about 6 hrs from San Jose through the mountains. Also, keep in mind that Costa Rica's rainy season is pretty much during our entire summer. If you want to see the mountains or the rain forest it is best to be avoided during the rainy season. There is a surfer town about 2 hrs north of Ojochal called Jaco. It is very cool. And if you enjoy beer and a smoke of the local foliage, it is worth a visit. Once you get to your destination near the beach, Costa Rica is amazing and could add years to your life if you spend enough time there. We were without internet, cell phones, and tv. It's also good to know spanish. Have fun and eat as much fresh fruit and fish as you can. Don't over pay for anything either... it is like Mexico in that regard although there are plenty of European immigrants that run cafes and such in the Ojochal area and they are priced to what you would expect to pay for dinner in the US.
Bigworld,
I dumped my VXX short today with a hefty gain. I was looking for 28 as the near term bottom but think that 24-25 is possibly in the cards next week. I didn't want to chance some sort of cataclysmic event over the long weekend. I can't get over how quickly the analysts are now calling this as a bull market correction and that the bottom is in with a 20% summer bull rally just around the corner. How quickly they turn. Yesterday all looked so grim on CNBC throughout the day. All the pieces remain the same. I went short casinos again today and am getting ready to short the triple bull etf's that went thru the roof today. These swings are great money makers and hope they continue. I think shorting overrun sectors are the best way to go. I'm going to wait until next wed to see how the market reacts near the 200 mda. Have a good holiday weekend, I'm starting early.
Thanks for the vote of confidence as I was feeling the same way. I'm not a big chartist but do see the obstacles here for the bears. Maybe I should try vector vest. lol.
BW,
I made a mistake pulling my shorts and entering a short on VXX this week but do you not see any type of rally here? Just looking for an exit and reentering strategy.
Market,
Where do you get your info on options trading? As I mentioned I'm a bit of a novice regarding this but think it's a far better and cheaper way to take risk. I am a gambler by nature so playing the odds game sounds like a better way to go especially if the market is entering a long term bear direction. Thanks.
I was watching the tape like a scared school girl on friday. I lost so much on VXX on the way down, I don't want to miss the rise but felt good about the 2-3 day trade with far greater potential VXX downside than upside. I'm curious if you still feel strongly that an S&P pullback to the 900 level will then yield a significant bull market rally shortly thereafter. I think I recall you estimating a return to the 1250 levels with a 2 year secular bear market trend returning at that point. I'm feeling a bit uneasy about that kind of a rally given all the market turbulence that should continue throughout the year. I could see a 10-15% recovery to maybe current S&P levels but 1250 seems out of reach. I like the commodity etf's over specific equities but think shorting VXX on uptrends seems like a better yield as it overreacts and deteriorates quickly as the market swings and the VIX calms. Thanks for your thoughts as I think we are of the same mindset.
Bigworld,
I put a short on VXX(3000 shares) at market open on Friday... a risky play and they were hard to get. VXX is shorted heavily which scares me a bit to hold. If the market plunges for some reason I will get caught in a massive short squeeze. I was planning on holding thru Tuesday. VXX didn't react nearly as negatively as the VIX on Friday which was disappointing. I was looking for a quick trade expecting a fair bounce off the 200 DMA. The late day rally looks like a head fake though and I may get trapped here. I am reentering all my shorts if the bounce comes. It was a risky trade but felt like the right time. It appears we are in the eye of the storm and darker days are ahead. With all the negative sentiment though a short market rally wouldn't surprise me to bring more bag holders back into the market.... the simple reason I shorted VXX. Mondays and Tuesdays have been recently bullish so I'm going to let it ride. If it hits 28 I'm out. Either way I'll be out by Wed afternoon.
Bigworld,
I need some technical advise. I dumped my shorts and VXX at market close yesterday. It seemed as if some stabilization was entering the market late in the day and some resistance was shown in the S&P at 1100. So much for that. Do you see a slight correction tomorrow based on Germany's involvement in supporting the Euro or do you see a continued slide to new support levels? I want to reenter but don't want to lose my recent short profits. Just looking for ideas. Thanks! F4T.
OT mf4,
Thanks, I'll look into it. As a novice options trader I try to keep it simply but it sounds logical enough. I'll more than likely wait until late tues or wed to pull the trigger on anything based on the temperament of the market.
Bigworld,
As luck would have it, I was traveling all this week and missed the melt down but pulled out of my short and small VXX positions today. The VIX over 40, in such a short time, yields me to believe a slight uptick may be in store next week at which point I will reenter stronger short and VXX positions. More market pain and toppling to come. I am still on board with the extended bear market but saw this week as a great trade op. I think next week allows me to reset after we see what new manipulation will come to this market after this weeks sell off. I rarely play options but I think this is the perfect time to enter puts into the heavily run sectors like the casinos and energy stocks.
SHM may 19th per my proxy
Yeah that seems like a nice way to begin a long term business relationship.
I dropped a bucket on MGM short this morning on a hunch. So far so good! I still think puts are a huge money maker on several over ran stocks even the likes of CAT. I think today might be the start. Good timing on my part or just pure luck. Either way I'll take it.
Biggie,
I am somewhat glad I got out of most of my short positions and VXX play for now but am getting ready to reenter. I am just curious of your top three market correction plays. I don't like the heavily deteriorated VXX etf any longer and think shorting SPY will only yield minimal gains compared to other potential short plays or 2X or 3X bear etfs. I thought of entering into some put positions on the casino plays I shorted recently like MGM and LVS, as well as a few other recent runners that should have an impossible time sustaining earnings. The market rollover is indeed coming...you can almost sense the hesitation of new money entering and when the big boys start to unload their positions to hold profits the rest will be running for the exits. I think far more than a 10% correction is in the near future. I lost so much on this bet over the last ten months that I will need a big down turn if I reenter into my bear positions so a multiple bear play in the right industry may get me back to even. So many bull etf's are at their inception highs that this thing has got to roll over. Have you ever traded off the radar etfs like RSW, DXSSX, RMS, MWN, mid cap bear etfs. Any thoughts?? F4T