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Thank You very much, I appreciate your comment.
I KNOW that sometimes I tend to sound arrogant or condescending because I am trying to make a point.
Sometimes I repeat that point several times in order to try to get through.
Though out life I have always remembered an old proverb.
I will post it here, but I will intentionally leave off the last 4 words, anyone can google the proverb to find the end of it.
He who DOES NOT know,
and DOES NOT know he DOES NOT know,
is a fool, avoid him.
He who DOES NOT know,
and KNOWS he DOES NOT know,
is a student, teach him.
He who KNOWS,
and DOES NOT know he knows,
is asleep, awaken him.
He who KNOWS,
and KNOWS he KNOWS,
is a … …, … … .
I'm now old, I've learned a lot over my many decades, I'm just trying to pass it along.
Have a GREAT 2019.
I agree, I think in January, both investors and mutual funds will start buying back in lifting the pps. All we need in one good CAR-T trial result and I think it will start to skyrocket (I HOPE). Happy Holidays.
erg61.
#1 I'm glad you have no intention of selling (and thereby locking in your losses).
#2 You mentioned "hype about the combine companies market value being 600 million to a billion".
Lesson, NEVER listen to or invest on hype, even from the company itself, many times it is B.S. spin, ie: "forward looking statements" that are essentially meaningless.
#3 You mentioned "I don’t think I ever heard anyone mention low $4.00’s or even possibly 3’s".
I would have never guess low $4's or any $4's. I had said $5.25 about a month ago based solely of NEA and Baker etc. buying in a $4 and the option to buy more at $5 as the lowest it could possibly go, and that price is where I had a large limit order. Guess what, I was wrong. I bought at 5.25 and am now losing on that. I bought more at 4.75 and am now losing on that. I currently have another large limit order in at $4.04. After that, I'm DONE, I have way more money in to this than I ever planned on.
Hopefully, all that means is in time I will just have a bigger pay off than planned for.
I NEVER would have thought it would EVER get to $5, but what is happening is this, and you've heard it before, they are throwing the baby out with the bath water.
I am telling you, MRKR is NOT a $4 stock, MRKR is NOT a $5 stock.
I said a couple times previous that based on comparables, the market cap (based on current status) should be around 350 million (without the bear market killing everything).
But in a horrible bear market, comparables are also meaningless, what I say is completely meaningless, company presentations and spin are meaningless.
We need very positive trial results. We will get back to our $350 million market cap and beyond that in time as trials play themselves out.
For right now, screw the price of MRKR and enjoy your Holidays.
THANK YOU, I am going to have a great Christmas …. because I will NOT let the current price of MRKR affect me, my family, or this holiday season.
The amount of money I am down in MRKR makes me want to throw up (because I've been dumping more and more in), but it is what it is, and it WILL rebound.
Thank You, Have a great Holiday season and I truly believe we will all be rewarded with MRKR in 2019 and beyond if we just have some patience and let this horrendous bear market play itself out.
I apologize, you are absolutely correct.
I should have said that you have to look at MRKR as more of a Russell 2000 stock (with no revenues) as opposed to a Nasdaq stock (that generally do have revenues).
Thank You for the correction because if giving information, the information should be accurate.
Thank You for some validation.
Even though some don't believe it, I'm trying to help people.
My posts vary in style based on who I'm responding to.
Sometimes, logic and soothing words are the best tactic.
Sometimes it's Occam's Razor.
Sometimes Reductio Ad Absurdum is the most effective way to get through and make a point.
But in any case, civilized humans should be able to disagree without being disagreeable.
I've been investing since the mid 1980's, seen it all before over and over.
And it absolutely DOES repeat.
It's all about greed and fear.
It's all about risk versus reward.
When everyone is being greedy, you need to be fearful (and prepare).
When everyone is fearful (like now), you need to be greedy (and buy).
YES, the most speculative stocks have the highest potential risk.
BUT, they also have the highest potential reward.
When I owned them as tiny speculative companies, Qualcomm and Pharmacyclics and Vertex and Alnylam were all VERY RISKY, but they paid off well.
Did I own other companies where I lost most of my investment?
OF COURSE, but that's the nature of the game you have to accept if you want to play in speculative stocks.
The most important thing a human can do is procreate.
The second most important thing a human can do is to gain as much knowledge as possible AND THEN pass that knowledge along to others.
That is what advances the human race.
But that is only my opinion.
There are a number of reasons and it is nothing new.
It happened in October 1987.
It happened in March 2000.
It happens in every major sell off / correction / bear market.
I did not think the sell off would last this long, but it is happening at the worst time of the year, (the end of it).
Question was, Why MRKR down, when Dow is up?
We are not in the Dow, but the answer would be the same even if you asked,
Why MRKR down, when Nasdaq is up?
We are not in the Nasdaq.
Most stocks in the Dow and Nasdaq have something we don't have, Revenues.
We are in one of the WORST sectors you can be in, in a bear market.
BIOTECH with NO revenues.
In the minds of investors, biotechs with NO revenues are one of the MOST speculative holdings.
Time after time, in correction after correction, the most "speculative" stocks get hit the hardest.
Look at 1987, look at 2000, the speculative bio's got killed, the speculative dot coms got killed.
On top of that, there are MANY other reasons based on the time of year.
People are tax loss selling, they are selling their losers, they are selling MRKR.
ALSO, 46 BILLION dollars were pulled out of mutual funds and ETF's LAST WEEK alone, when that money is taken out, it forces the fund manager to sell stocks, and they tend to sell the most speculative.
ALSO, EVERY YEAR, at this time of year, fund managers sell their own losers because they don't want those losers to show up on their annual report, so they sell to try to make themselves look better.
Also, what many people on this board are talking about, the lack of news.
In a BULL market, good news is great news and NO news is good news.
In a BEAR market, good news is OK news and no news is bad news.
That's just how it goes.
NOW SOME GOOD NEWS and some advise.
Even though we are speculative, we are NOT bitcoin and we are NOT dogfood.com that had no office, no phone and no dogfood to sell.
All they had was a name, an idea, and stupid people who financed them based on a dream.
That is NOT MRKR, this is a real company with real research, and a "POTENTIALLY" great product.
We are now down in the $4's, look at what that is close to.....
The "brilliant" people, NEA, Baker brothers, etc., etc., got in at $4.
They are not stupid, if they bought in at 4, you KNOW that they thought it was worth at least $6. The option to buy more strike price is 5, which means they thought it was worth more than $5.
We are just in a bad bear market happening at the worst time of the year.
AND REMEMBER THIS, for EVERY MRKR share that has been sold, someone is BUYING IT, (like I have been almost daily), either to dollar cost average down, or to establish a position.
You can't sell a stock in to thin air, someone has to buy it.
Now, I can't imagine that every single one of those buyers are stupid or crazy. They are buying all of those sold shares for a reason.
The best thing you can do at these ridiculous low levels is buy more.
The next best thing you can do at these levels is, DON'T SELL.
If you sell, all you do is lock in your loses and then you own nothing that can go back up and recoup your money and make you a profit down the road.
Don't get trapped in to the daily panic, if it's freaking you out, shut off the computer and don't watch the price until January.
In January, the mutual funds will start buying back in also.
They KNOW it is a good stock, they just didn't want a (Temporary) losers on their annual report.
Sit tight, keep the faith in this company, history will repeat as it always does, and you will be rewarded in the long term.
Even though I didn't get one response back last time, I'll say it again.
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to all MRKR owners.
Phantom, I get it, I understand, I agree that "they don't like trading in and out of positions", BUT, I KNOW what people do LIKE, MAKING MONEY, as MUCH as possible, (that's why they are in stocks).
Why am I trying to get through to people?
Why am I trying to change them?
As the old saying goes, "those you don't learn from history are destined to repeat it".
These market fluctuations WILL HAPPEN AGAIN. They will happen in MRKR and they will happen in many other stocks.
We will get some great news, there will be a huge pop up in price, and then the sell off will begin once again.
WHY NOT PROFIT FROM IT?
The question is - what do people value MORE, their LIKE of making as much money as possible - or - their DISLIKE of trading?
It's a simple question that everybody should ask themselves.
There is no harm in reevaluating a mindset.
What is a classic definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
This is nothing against you (I appreciate all of the research you do for those on this board), this is nothing against anybody.
This is trying to teach and get people to learn from their mistakes (as SHOULD happen).
When you have a large profit, take 50% of your shares and PROTECT your PROFITS via stop losses.
If it keeps going up, you still own half your position and those shares are now FREE or almost free.
If it goes down substantially, buy back in and own a lot more shares for the same money, and profit even greater.
I REALLY REALLY don't LIKE kale, that doesn't mean it's not very healthy.
If an investor (who's objective is to make money) does not LIKE trading, is not a reasonable excuse to leave money on the table or to throw money out the window.
It takes less than 60 seconds to enter a stop loss to protect profits and make even more money in the future.
How much money has been lost on this board by "just holding" because they "don't like to trade"?
Is that why they all are investing? To leave money on the table and lose it by just watching it disappear?
I am not saying "trade" 10 times a day.
I'm saying "rarely trade" when you have a large profit by protecting that profit.
How many people don't "LIKE" getting up in the morning and going to work?
But they do it to make money, RIGHT?
Same exact thing with protecting profits, "like" or "dislike" is irrelevant, you DO it to make money.
It has worked very well for decades.
If one strategy works and makes money more consistently and one strategy enables someone to just watch their money disappear, what's the most reasonable course of action.
Inaction is not a reasonable course of action.
I don't know anybody on this board, why do I keep trying to have them get the most out of their investments?
I guess because I'm just an idiot who cares and would like to help them profit as much as they can.
Sorry for trying to educate, but I'll tell you what, YOU DECIDE.
Want me off this board, just say so and I'll stop posting here.
Yeah, a couple more great presentations and we'll be down to $5.
I'm guessing the recommended stop losses that were suggested several times when it was at $12 + $11 + $10, that were opposed by most are looking like the better play in hindsight now.
Sell, wait, buy back twice as much for the same price.
But almost no one did because they were hyped in to believing the post merger market cap would be close to One Billion $'s.
Been buying more for last couple of weeks. They are giving shares away at these prices. Will be worth a ton. REMEMBER, for every share sold, SOMEONE IS BUYING THEM.
First I'd like to say Happy Holidays to all MRKR owners and I hope 2019 is GREAT for all of us.
But I'd also like to address something if I may.
People on this board want communication and updates and reports and presentations etc. from MRKR.
Understandable, BUT, even if we get them, they are all B.S. and almost meaningless. That is why there is always the disclosure about "forward looking statements".
NO company is ever going to say "WE SUCK" as a company. They are ALWAYS going to put the best spin on it.
How many times have biotechs have poor trial results and then try to spin it into the best possible news?
Even with trial failures it's always "encouraging news" because we identified a "subset" of patients that "may possibly" benefit, blah, blah, blah, that justifies our continued research and further trials, blah, blah, blah.
What else can they do? Shut down and fire everybody? Their jobs and paychecks depend on continuing forward, so they do the "best B.S. spin" that they can write.
THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS or will ever matter is undeniable positive trial results.
Positive words are meaningless.
How many people on this board expected a market cap of 800 million or 1 billion after the merger based on "words" they read?
YES, MRKR has a "potentially GREAT" technology in the CAR-T space, but so do a dozen other biotechs I can list.
Until MRKR or others PROVE IT in trials, no one KNOWS for sure they will ultimately be successful.
I choose to believe in MRKR, that's why I got a large chuck of $ in it, but me believing in MRKR means nothing.
I don't care about "spin words", I want undeniable positive trial results.
That's what's going to make the share price skyrocket, not "spin words" or great sounding presentations. What CEO in their right mind (if they want to keep their job) is going to give a presentation that is not great sounding spin.
Presentations and expectations are great, but it's positive trial results that matter.
Hopefully we get some in 2019 and beyond.
In an oral capsule form for adults, Vitrakvi will have a wholesale acquisition cost of $32,800 a month for a 30-day supply of 100 milligram capsules. That's $393,600 annually.
One reason the drug is so expensive: Patients who will benefit are rare. Bayer estimates 2,500 to 3,000 patients in the U.S. develop cancer due to a TRK fusion each year.
Shorts just reported, still above 1.4 million shares, no covering.
The majority of the shorts were placed between 10.50 + 12. The rest were 8.50 to 10 range. If we could get the price above 11, 1.4 million shares being bought to cover, price goes higher.
GEEZ - SO CLOSE to my $6.06 limit buy.
Maybe tomorrow.
Next Few Months …..
MRKR goes up to 9.25, then drops to 6.75, then goes up to 9.50, then drops to 7.00.
We pull our hair out, they laugh and make $$$$$.
I think that you are absolutely correct, and that is what has been happening.
But we (TPIV/MRKR) are not alone. There are a number of biotech stocks that "someones" are playing around with, all stocks with small float, low volume, no great major interest, up and down, and up and down, in that trading range that's just big enough so they can pay their trade associated fees and taxes, and still have enough left over for a worthwhile profit.
They KNOW that there are three kinds of basic players in their game.
US, who are either too small or too inactive traders to be able to influence their game.
INSIDERS/VENTURE/INSTITUTIONAL/FUNDS, that are generally "longer" term holders, who therefore will not be actively disrupting their game.
THEM, who know that they are the only active players of any major consequence, so if they work together, each taking their majority profit in turn, they control the game.
UNTIL WE GET:
A Much Larger float available.
Great results from a MRKR MultiTAA T Cell Therapy trial, so that the Marker aspect is given much more regard as opposed to the TPIV side of the merger.
If we get both of those things, we should get a ton more interest, a lot more major buyers and funds buying, and we should finally be able to kick the manipulators and short sellers out of here.
I HOPE
P.S. That's why in an earlier post I said a one billion dollar market cap … around the second quarter of 2020.
The "right to try" law is new, but it has been around for years called "compassionate use". No drug company is libel for anything, every user signs a waiver, they use at their own risk.
I ain't Rockefeller either, but I did meet Nelson Rockefeller when he was Governor of New York.
We are about the same situation as far as shares owned and average price.
I have my investments split between a couple dozen stocks and Florida condos that I rent out.
I just sold two condos last week, so I am looking to put more $ into MRKR.
I already bought once at 6.06, so I'll pick up more there, but if it hits 5.25, I'm going to just make a bet that we are all correct in our assumptions for MRKR's future, and load up in the low 5's.
Good Luck to you.
JUST GET IT OVER WITH …………
Go down to $5.20, let my 6.06 + 5.25 limit buy orders go through, make a strong bottom, and then just start bouncing back up from there.
Hi, I mentioned in post # 25053, on 11/1 that it would not be a surprise if the short amount actually ROSE in the next report you cited.
Thank You
MRKR Market Cap 325 million, WHY?
Read post # 23920 from 6/15/18 which said combined market cap should be 300 to 350 million.
It was "billed" as a merger of "equals" when TPIV was about 60 to 100 million, that would equal a combined 200 million.
But let's say Marker was really worth more than an "equal" 100 million, HOW MUCH MORE and then also, WHY being worth more that 100 million, would they come in as "equal"?
One advantage to Marker, was this merger was an easier way to go public, rather then go through the legal and SEC regulatory route of the IPO. All they need this way was a shareholder vote. No SEC regulatory route.
OK, so HOW MUCH MORE than 100 million was Marker worth?
Now remember, in young, small biotech, value in part, is based on hype and hope.
We have ALL seen biotechs with the latest thing have SPECTACULAR phase 1 results and STELLAR phase 2 results, only to flop and die in phase 3 trials.
So, BE REAL HERE, their success is not written in stone yet.
SO, was Market worth twice as much as TPIV?
Were they worth triple of what TPIV was?
I don't think you can safely say, based on hype and hope and current trial results, that they were worth 5 times or 10 times as much as TPIV.
OK, so they weren't really worth 500 million or ONE billion.
They were worth 200 to 250 million based on what Dozens of other comparable biotechs were at the same stage, when combined with TPIV's 100 million = about 325 million.
ALSO, remember, everybody big just got to buy in at $4 a share, at a market cap of 180 million. 45 million shares X $4 = 180 million market cap.
If, like what happens when a stretched rubber band snaps back, if it gets to a market cap of 250 million, I will just buy more.
I still believe with "realistic expectations" that MRKR will be successful and have a market cap of One Billion, perhaps in the 2nd quarter of 2020.
Normally, it goes like "buy on the rumor, sell on the news", so people bought at $2 "the rumor" and have been selling since the top of $12.50 "the news".
In MRKR's case it's been, "buy on the rumor, then after the news wait a bit to see if all the hype plays out quickly into raising the share price, if not then sell while you still have profits."
I still think it has a good shot at long term success, so if it keeps heading down I'll just buy more in the low 6's and low 5's.
I just closed on 2 of my condos in Florida that I sold to the same buyer. As soon as the check from the title company clears, I AM BUYING MORE MRKR.
None, there is no more TPIV stock, every share was converted to MRKR stock.
Somebody bought 1/2 MILLION shares late Friday and Monday it TANKS!
????????
I wonder if Friday's buyer is happy.
Still got the 6.06 and 5.25 limit buys still in place just in case though.
Hello, Very Well written. I, also am worried about tomorrow, but as Sun Tzu pointed out, if you know what ground you are standing on, you can take advantage if that.
I am for the most part, a long term holder of stocks, BUT I do, if a stock if up a good bit, take 30% or 40% of my position to "stop loss" and then, do as you did, buy more back lower.
I don't find that stressful, I find it rewarding because I'm making extra money. To me, Stressful is just watching it go down without a plan and doing nothing about it.
ABOUT tomorrow, set yourself up to take advantage of the situation.
Do you have extra money?, put in limit orders to buy MRKR and/or others at a MUCH cheaper price just in case it's get crazy.
DON'T have the extra money? Do this? Raise money like this?
Take some stocks that you have the Most Profit in, and enter a "conditional" order, a "one triggers another" order.
Order #1, Put stop losses on stock a, b, c, etc., at JUST BELOW it's current price.
Order #2, Put in limit orders to buy MRKR and/or others at a MUCH cheaper price just in case it's get crazy.
If the first trade get executed, it automatically triggers the 2nd order.
Good Luck
Hi Eagle1, the thing with ONTX right now is based almost solely on their phase 3 trial, this stock will either triple+ rise in price OR you will lose 80%/90% of your money. I don't think there's much middle ground here. It's one of those smaller stock positions that you can afford to take a chance on and lose, because most of your larger investments are in MRKR etc.
The 11-9 date is the dissemination date for the short info settlements ending Oct. 31.
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mrkr/short-interest
going UP on down biotech days.
First a deal with twoXAR, then a deal with KVK Tech, good news on the KP415 Prodrug, setting up good partnerships that will help sales of future prodrugs. BUY now - still CHEAP.
Hi, get info from -
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mrkr/short-interest
The shorts on TPIV/MRKR has gone up Every Single Week since 4/13/18.
During the entire month of Sept., EVERY time we got the price up to $9++, there was selling pressure, some of it I think more shorts trying to keep price down.
We will know latest data on Nov. 9th, it would not surprise me at all if the shorts went UP to 1.5 - 1.6 million shares.
Shorts haven't covered any significate amount since April, and they haven't been covering big in the last 3 weeks when there was big down price pressure. I think all the shorts are still there and have increased.
We will know for sure Nov. 9th.
If there are 1.8 millions shorts on Nov. 9th, that's GREAT, it's just like money in the bank because you KNOW, at some point in time, they will HAVE TO BUY to cover.
P.S. I didn't cover at $6.06, I bought at 6.06 and 6.09 and 6.11 and 6.14, it was only down in that range for less than 2 minutes.
Hi, my logic goes like this.
In mid June price got to 12.50 with 500k shorts.
From then on you had another 800k shares shorted, all between 7.50 + 10.00.
We won't know the new data until 11/9, but most of those 1.3 million shorts are still active. I don't know why but they didn't cover yet, so at some point, they are going to have to admit defeat and cover their losses before they get worse.
As of right now, if all 1.3 million are still short, about 2/3's of them are losing $ or close to losing $ right now.
All we need is a few days of heavy volume up pressure and the short panic will begin.
I really don't think there has been much short covering for the last 3 weeks because the markets been going down, and buying to cover shorts creates upward pressure, and there ain't been much of that.
Most of the shares that were shorted before 9/28/18 (which is most of the shorts), were shorted between 10.50 and 12.25, so once the price gets to 10.50+, that should trigger the first wave, and by them buying to cover, that sends price up to 11.00 to 11.50, which sets off the next wave, and etc., etc., all the way until about 13.00 to 13.50, then it should settle back down to around 12.50 …. or at least that's the plan.
There's something happening here,
BUY Now before the news comes out.
A VERY Bright and Profitable future for MNOV, BUY in now while it's still undervalued.
A VERY Bright and Profitable future for KMPH, BUY in now while it's still way undervalued.
One day of Heavy Volume and HHPHF could be at $7.50 in the blink of the eye. Buy CHEAP now and hold till that happens.
If you don't BUY ATNM before December 1, I think you're going to be sorry.
Just another $1 up and the price will start to push shorts to cover all the way past $12. Need buying pressure with heavy volume, I hope.