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Pineapple1, you stated to me earlier today:
You are one tough investor to please.
I guess this is true if I expect a company to be transparent, meet milestones, execute a plan rather than constantly changing it, and try to create shareholder value along the way through said execution of plan.
DM so far has missed so badly on all of the above-mentioned objectives. He keeps kicking the can down the road until "the next quarter, half..." When asked if he would divulge the upcoming conference where he is going to present the information, he gave a "we are waiting to hear back" type of answer. Yep, typical DM.
Did you notice the crickets in the background after the Maxim analyst call? He is not exactly selling this plan to the investment community, unless you include the 2 analysts that are in the tank already.
Do you notice that the stock price is has been decimated the past year? None of this bothers you? If not, you are a better person than me.
Everything is commencing in the 2nd Half of the year (if you believe that--recent history suggests to be skeptical about this until proven otherwise). The second half of the year goes through December 31st, 2018, so I would not expect anything until then.
Roth Capital: Congratulations on meeting the milestones in the quarter! Huh?
Talk about being in the tank for a company!!
All of the news from Missling sounds wonderful, yet the stock is nearly at a 52 week low. Noone bothers to ask him about this, even though it's the 800 pound gorilla in the room.
We will analyze the AZ data "in any shape or form" and "as we see fit." Yes, he said this. YIKES!
2 analyst questions, 20 minutes--the World has taken notice!! (sarcasm noted)
Yet another disappointment regarding the earnings release. Expenses are increasing, cash is decreasing, and still no trial starts.
Not good.
Perhaps their pipeline is weak, but 12 Billion in annual revenue sounds pretty decent to me.
I'll even take 12 million in revenue--that would represent half of the cash reserves that AVXL has to work with as of now.
If Biogen wants to partner, I'd say "may I have this dance."
Patnership=credibility
No, I think there is a good deal of fake news--especially in the political landscape. The liberal media would have you believe every day that Trump is about to be impeached.
I just think that in AVXL's case, we really have not given a reason for a bullish sentiment to take hold yet. Sure, DM has done a lot of talking about what we are supposedly going to do. He really needs to definitively state when a trial is starting. Anything short of this tomorrow, and you'll see this revisit its 52 week low ($1.81).
If he does announce a trial start date, and the stock does not respond favorably, then perhaps you are correct.
Not really buying into this argument you are making about nefarious wall street cabal.
Perhaps if a trial HAD started and the stock were still heading south, I might be a little more convinced. However, what TANGIBLE action has DM done that would give an investor confidence that there is an actionable plan in effect. So far, it's all talk.
Maybe that changes tomorrow.
At least Neurotrope is trying to advance its trial, and is laying out measurable parameters to evaluate the efficacy of it. It is probably still a Hail Mary, but at least they have a chance at success.
On the other hand, one does get the sense that DM is dragging his feet. We can speculate the reasons (FDA protocols yet to be established, FDA acceptance of their trial design) to more ominous ones (weak correlation of efficacy).
If this were a Texas Hold 'em game, at least Neurotrope is pushing its chips into the middle of the table and saying "game on!" On the other hand, DM would be somewhere in the lobby, asking where the bathroom is in order to avoid having to commit his chips.
I am keeping my fingers crossed we are going to advance the ball STARTING TOMORROW, and finally stop talking about it and start doing it.
When trials do not start on the timeline initially stated, they are delayed.
We can debate the semantics of this, but the bottom line is there have been zero trial starts to date. We were supposed to have 3 going on, based upon a conference call held in December 2017.
At least you have answered why the stock is down 50%. Now I want to hear DM state it as well.
I am surprised he did not give more notice about the first quarter results, for the reasons that you stated (giving the covering analysts advance notice so they can be available).
I do hope that these analysts ask some tough questions. For starters, why have these trial starts been delayed? What is the status of the MTA with Biogen? How is the cash position of the company relative to the revised trial starts? When do you anticipate needing to raise more capital, given these revised trial starts? Is there any update you can provide on the status of the patients still enrolled in the AZ trial in Australia? Do you anticipate receiving any grants or government support for the upcoming trials? If the Rett trial is given the green light by the FDA, how long before the first patients are dosed? As a follow up, how long would it be before the company would have top line results of this trial? Will it be before year end 2018?
These are just a few of the questions that should be asked. Also, why not put DM on the spot and pretty much ask him to explain why he thinks the stock's price has declined over 50 % in the past 9 months. I notice that in all of his powerpoint presentations, not once have I seen a slide showing the stock's performance relative to an overall market index, as well as the biotechnology sector. When you are doing investor conferences as a publicly traded company, that is normally included in the analysis. I know why he does not include this (because it is embarrassing), but I want to hear him explain it to the investment community.
It's time for him to answer tough questions. No more lollipops and meatballs. C'mon analysts, do your job and get our CEO to have to explain the details behind his plan. I'd be more than happy to do it myself, but I am not permitted to be part of the Q & A, since I'm only a lowly retail investor.
Thank you for the crumb, DM!
Perhaps you are correct with your belief, but each day that passes with the stock continuing its decline is unsettling to say the least. I'm sure you realize we are nearing the mid-year point of the FY. Did you anticipate that we'd be halfway through May with absolutely nothing definitive relative to trials starting? At this point, it would even be somewhat reassuring that they PR'd when they are going to be releasing 1st Quarter results. Is this too much to ask? Throw us a crumb.
I know biotech by its very nature has its hurdles and setbacks, but this company could test the patience and resolve of Job (the biblical reference).
I think DM's value to this company will be determined in the very near future. He has to get A trial approved and started within the next 60 days (early July), otherwise I will lose whatever remaining confidence I have in him.
The time for talking is over--it's all about execution from this point forward. If he delivers, then I'll be the first to apologize and call him a genius. If he falters, then I think the BOD will have a decision to make.
This is what makes biotech exciting and exasperating at the same time.
Yes, I think there is a collective concern that the share price is down nearly 50%. Some attribute it to delays in trial starts, while others believe this has been orchestrated by Wall Street power brokers who are mad that AVXL decided not to go the IPO path.
I believe it's the first reason (trial delays). This can be remedied if the company announces very imminently a trial start.
Time will tell....
basparks79:
I admire your confidence. You have not wavered once in your conviction. I cannot say the same. I am trying to take the long view here, and hope that your prediction about this company's success is correct. I just wish we would see some incremental progress along the way--the quiet periods have been too long, and the information that is provided afterwards usually leads to more questions than answers.
Here is to hoping this all changes in the not too distant future.
Tom:
I stick to pretty basic financial and economic principles to explain price action in a security.
If the stock price increases, the demand for the stock outweighed the supply of available shares at a given price point, so the price rises until equilibrium is reached.
Conversely, if the stock price declines, the demand for the stock was less than the available supply of shares at a given price point, so the price drops to increase the demand for the stock to bring the supply/demand relationship back to equilibrium.
Economics 101
Disclaimer: The following analysis above assumes that markets are "somewhat" efficient and that both sides of a transaction have access to similar information about a security at a given time. Some on this board believe this assumption not to be true.
I know nothing about technical analysis, but the price action clearly has been down these past 8 months. Make a graph along the y-axis and plot stock price points from $6.27 down to today's closing price of $2.13. Next, along the x axis, plot the closing price dates from last year through the closing price today. Lastly, draw a line that connects these data points. Here is what the slope of the line should look like.
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Beautiful, isn't it?
I agree--another woeful day in what has become a routine of dismal stock performance. No wonder short sellers would be circling this stock like vultures. 4 out of 5 trading days per week, this stock is down. Pretty good odds if you are a short seller. As a 3 year holder of this stock, getting punched in the gut on a daily basis has become rather routine.
I would love to know when the first quarter "results" will be released. Does anyone know? I believe a public company has 45 days after the end of a quarter to report. So, this should be no later than May 15th?
Does this seem correct? Anyone?
I hope that I am incorrect.
Do you have another plausible explanation for why this trial has not started?
I am not getting this information from any specific source, other than my own anecdotal knowledge that the Rett population usually involves predominantly adolescent females.
I'm just speculating, similar to others on this board who are wondering why there has been such a delay with this trial. Absent management offering more clarity into this issue, we SH are left to speculate. I won't be at all surprised, given others on the board suggesting it, that this may be the underlying issue.
Bio:
While speculation, your reasoning for the ongoing delay in the IND filing for Rett being related to safety issues does seem plausible. Using safety data derived from an adult population, and trying to apply it to an adolescent female population, could be an issue for the FDA.
If this turns out to be the case, then that would really be an indictment of DM and Fadrian to navigate this issue. I think a lot of SH would be quite upset with this.
It is just speculation, but it seems to be possible given the ongoing delay with beginning the Rett trial.
Let's hope this is not the case.
Have to wait until trial results are presented....
which inherently is a problem, since we have no trials started as of today--unless you are counting the ongoing AD trial in Australia that we have not been updated on in quite some time.
So, unless there is a buyout, this is pretty much dead money for at least 6 months--which is when we would get a data readout IF we started the Rett trial by the end of May.
That doesn't seem like market manipulation to me--it's just the reality and the market's reaction to the ongoing trial delays.
Yes, I am both a frustrated and disappointed shareholder for nearly 3 years. I am tired of reading the comments about "fickle retail investors." I don't think 3 years is an unreasonable amount of time to expect some kind of forward progress (ie trials starting). The fact that this is down nearly 50% in that time is just nauseating. And yes, I put the blame mostly upon our CEO for this predicament, since he'd be getting the credit if things were going well.
It comes with his job.
BTW, are we ever going to hear from anyone else in this company other than DM. What about Dr. Fadrian? Would love to hear on the next conference call some of his insight. After all, he was hired nearly a year ago.
Just a thought for the next conference call, which should be happening within the next few weeks? Does anyone know when the first quarter results will be announced?
“Everything is moving to success.”
Not everything—the share price continues to languish.
Now April has come (and gone) without any trial starts, or any concrete news for that matter. I'm glad to see Missling is scheduling more conferences to attend on the company's dime. To date, these have been so effective in getting our story out (sarcasm noted).
A poster commented yesterday that Missling stated (and chuckled) at the Annual Meeting something to the effect of "a Rett trial is so short--it'll take only 12 weeks." Seems like a flippant remark for a CEO to make, given that it hasn't even started yet. Assuming it were to start dosing even by the end of May, the readout on this trial (if we're lucky) would probably be October.
2018 is 1/3 over, and still nothing. Unbelievable.
I just saw the votes For/Against certain officers of the Board, and have to chuckle. Only 550K votes went against Missling, compared to 12M For?!! These results make the elections in the Banana Republics of South America seem honest.
I guess it means that either the voting process is a sham, or people are just fine with the status quo. I voted against DM and the Compensation Package set forth, but I guess I'm in the minority on this board that feels you should earn compensation and a title based upon merit and performance. I wish I had the same luxury as some of these BOD members when my annual review came up. Hey, you missed many of the milestones that we hoped to achieve, but don't worry--you get to keep your job, and with more compensation!!
Admittedly, my shares were voted out of disappointment and even anger towards the execution of this company's strategy, as well as the lack of transparency that has been prevalent over the past 6 months. We're nearly halfway through this FY, and still not one new trial has begun yet. While many reasons have been given and/or speculated about these delays, this cold hard fact is indisputable.
Great information, Jonjones325....keep it coming!
Thank you for your response.
I'm not sure if I'll put much faith in what Missling says, but I do appreciate your feedback.
I wish everyone (including myself) a lot of luck with this one--we're going to need it!!
Wake up! Not sure what that means, but thanks for the advice.
Bourbon:
Thank you for the update of the SH meeting. The only thing that does not make any sense, and perhaps you can enlighten me, is why did the share price hit a 52 week low if there are so many positive developments on the horizon?
1.22 Million shares sold today. I know some on this board will say "but there were also 1.22 Million shares bought"-as if that is supposed to make us feel better. Many of these shares sold are investors or institutions that finally threw in the towel after Missling's latest update, which more or less is "we haven't started a trial yet, but hang in there, it will eventually happen (maybe)."
As much as I try to remain optimistic, it's days like these (after waiting months for updates), that really make this difficult.
One thing does seem correct after today's update--there is no cabal. The reason the price has been falling these past 6 months is explained by this morning's press release. Apparently, some investors were made aware or correctly speculated that the company was not going to be meeting its milestones.
Kund, you’re always so candid. I enjoy your point of view. It really does add to the discussion and debate.
Answers to your rhetorical questions:
1) Trial delays
2) If possible, attend the annual SH meeting and ask DM/BOD some hard questions—not the softballs that have been prescreened for the conference calls. I’ll be there.
52 week low—usually not a bullish indicator.
Zig:
The one consolation (and perhaps motivation) is that our CEO has 400K of stock options recently granted at $3.30, which at the time seemed like a steal.
Now, 2.5 months later, they are nearly 80 cents below the strike price. So, one would like to think this recent stock slide (or avalanche) might motivate him to turn things around here.
One would like to think so, at least.
I accept the big risk part of the equation. I have invested in biotech before, so this is not my first rodeo. Perhaps I was a bit spoiled back in day by Genentech.
I am not as accepting of the delays, miscommunication, and obtuse statements that cause rampant speculation--but as of yet, no action.
I have made my bed, and intend to lie in it for 2018--but it doesn't mean I have to like it. I can accept failure--I am unwilling to accept not even getting an opportunity to be successful.
Am I confident that a trial will start sometime soon? If you asked me Jan 1st, I would have said most definitely. Today, I'm not so sure, so I guess this leaves me in no better shape than our CEO. He doesn't seem to know, either.
I think the falcon has flown over the cuckoo's nest.
I understand--this stock's performance can test even the best of scientific minds. It must be the "nerons" are in need of "cellular homeostasis." Kind of like that fire truck in the firehouse that puts out the fire before it becomes an inferno, so that it can become an iceberg (or something like that).
Geez, I'm sounding a lot like our CEO...maybe I'm flying over the cuckoo's nest too!!
Your guess as to when the Rett trial starts is as good as any, including our CEO's. With only 1 week left in February, and 4 in March, starting this trial in the 1st quarter now appears it may be in jeopardy.
What a shame. I really thought this would be up and running by now. To those families who are waiting to start this trial, it should be sooner than later. Hang in there--help is (hopefully) on the way.
You nailed it—it’s time to get the Rett trial started. Otherwise, this slide is likely to continue.
Sorry for the misunderstanding.
Post hoc data analysis means more time and money. Hopefully the data will be so compelling and irrefutable that it will be a quicker path to approval.
I like your style, Bio. I sure hope you're correct, as do many on this board. You seem very optimistic, so I'll do my best to stay positive as well.
Eventually, it would be nice to see some of this optimism reflected in the stock price. Maybe next week?
Bio:
You make a VERY convincing argument with your post. Unfortunately, despite all of this optimism these past 24 hours, the stock went up.....
1 penny
Maybe this share increase was to honor Abraham Lincoln, whose likeness appears on a coin of that value. After all, we are going into a President's Day weekend, which means the market will be closed on Monday. Therefore, I will present to you my prediction for Monday's close, based upon my stochastic modeling, Fibonacci whatevers, and flipping a quarter (to honor George Washington).
My crystal ball tells me the price will remain unchanged for Monday (and that's a guarantee!!)
You are all welcome--have a great weekend.