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Only thing though SF, we're not China. We don't close entire cities. We don't stop all travel and we don't resort to draconian measures to stop transmission.
Contrast us to China:
1.Lead by a buffoon we've been lulled into believing that "it can't happen here"
2. We have appointed someone with virtually no epidemiological experience to head the effort to contain the virus. His major effort before changing direction was to meet with corporate heads- airlines, cruise ship company heads. Really ?
3. Previously, our government in an effort to roll back "Obama era" spending to the CDC and other health departments to further thwart fighting the virus. Previous lessons learned and procedures taken to fight SARS, bird flu, swine flu, Ebola have largely been ignored. If we don't learn from previous mistakes and successes we can only blame ourselves.
4. Talking heads of one political persuasion continue to downplay the threat to our nations people coinciding with our "leaders" bluster. The stock market and other markets will do fine for the time being because interest rates have been cut and economic activity for the time being is on a false upswing. Housing continues to do well until the full impact upon people is felt.
5. Testing which should have begun months ago (of course we say this in hindsight) is beginning in fits and starts, while the virus runs through the population.
6. I don't know what the end to this is, only time will tell when to invest in our markets. I for one will list high yield bond funds I'm increasing investment in for the time being. If I'm around later on I'll see the end to all this. 66 years old and healthy I'm exposed to many people. I socialize quite a bit and instruct classes twice a week. So ...
I'm reading the article to state that basically the older more infirm will be culled (until this thing mutates to kill the rest of us, COWS INCLUDED) Unfortunately when folks aren't symptomatic they're carriers and will infect many that can not withstand the virus. Regardless of whatever number proves to be the final fatality percentage.
Oh well.
Okay Nick.
Watch out for wet flying babies !
Must be quick to avoid the bathwater.
Nick it seems evident to me that my trading tools and insights are adequate, and I mean adequate, not great under most circumstances. This time is different for me.
Kindly make it a point to let me know if and when the program becomes available. Maybe for added beta testing ?
Hey Nick,
Lets not lament too much. Halved MA at $282 for a still stellar profit, but now it's over $300.
Life and the stock market and investing go on. I'll put it back if it ever drops below by at least $10. This is far from over.
Have wads and wads of cash afforded by that sale. Vigilantly watching for buy opportunities.
To quote a notable figure in the television industry:
"Surprise surprise surprise" - Gomer Pyle.
Thanks SF,
Opened CODX at $15.50
Court,
Unless covid jumps to cows you will be fine.
And the New York metro area is going to be hit hard. So are all major metro areas if there isn't a serious response. Even then, I believe that since an incubation period of 2 to maybe 4 weeks with no or few symptoms will result in major incubation transmission in the community with radical results.
Quite frankly Nick I'm completely flummoxed by this whipsaw market. Not many precedents for it. December 2018 was child's play compared to this savage roller coaster ride. It's certainly not business as usual. That's for sure!
I don't see head and shoulders there Nick.
How is he at providing it to others Nick ?
One portfolio up 2.6% today, The other most watched portfolio up 2.4%
I'd prefer down days, since I'm still down 9.3% from the high and won't cost average at this point to add more fuel to the fire.
Very wary. Tons of cash to put to work, but I am hesitant. Indicators from my position never come to light early enough. Oh yeah, in hindsight we can say that apple bounced off its 200 day moving average and held, that institutions came in to support those levels and that a 100% liquidity injection from the fed will save the day.
But, Really ? Will all this hold ?
I need more interactive programs to tell me quicker.
What do you use Nick?
Any one in particular?
I'M REALLY THINKING SERIOUS SHORT POSITIONS MAY BE THE ANSWER.
Yep and that brings me back to square one. I could have done a lot of nothing and had the same result. Except a huge tax bill that I now have when I need it least.
Almost let WMT go at $105. Almost added to IRM at $30, but lowered order to $29. Still no joy there. Glad I didn't close WMT. 65% return still intact on WMT.
Diddling with adding to BP at $30. BP held up remarkably well today. Surprise surprise surprise. Wish it were the same with my OXY. Uh, what a mess that is. It'll take me years to recover from that.
Looking to conceivably add to MU as well. It seems to want to move upwards, held back by market forces. We'll see. We'll see.
So basically spent most of the day watching and waiting, trying to get a handle on market sentiment. If the other shoe drops with COVID19 then all bets are off and I'm definitely moving to Antarctica.... Or Tahiti, whichever is virus free.
Main focus is watch MA for an entry point to add. Next week perhaps. Hey the worst that could happen is it goes up, right ?
Thanks DD, what about GILD ?IRM ?
Being absolutely new to this board and concerned about investments in Biotech Re: Covid19. I have been looking at Moderna and opened GILD today, probably at too high a cost- $76.76. Very concerned about the short term as I've been hemorrhaging $$$ and reduced MA, NFBK,EQH, STWD and BX all at a substantial profit to free up cash. Added IRM and ABBV as well today and yesterday.
I guess my question if you've read this far is regarding ABBV, GILD and I know that IRM isn't a biotech but does store medical records but if anyone has any insight, hey would love to hear it.
Opened ABBV at a loss now at $92.11.
Briefly in MRNA's today buy, it looked like a loser so got out at null. cost.
Could be Rabbit, could be...
Thanks court
Considering closing WMT at this point. If it continues on its spiral I'll raise more cash. MA really thru a curve ball at me. After sale of half, it decided to run up 10+
JEEZ !
After a horrible day reduced exposure by 1/2 to markets with variable stops:
MA- $282- 1800% return
NFBK- $14.96 1124% return
EQH- $21.10 15.53% return
BX- $53.51 18.85% return
STWD- $23.44 9.0% return
Opened GILD $76.76 Definitely too rich a purchase I'm probably going to regret.
Opened IRM $32.
Funny as I look back and think that I was looking for a slightly better return at market highs. Would have closed all positions with a minor boost of around 3% more. Even considering tax ramifications. Oh well. Back in the trenches.
Just really damn tired of seeing all red.
Now really flush with cash that I just have no idea what to do with. Maybe IBM ?
The funny SF, I'll take the prayer at this point. We may need it.
Already on it SF.
Broke out the N95 masks I had kept from the SARS scare since hoarding and price gouging for these has been in full swing now. Look on Amazon and see what I mean. Ebay is much worse with such wildly exaggerated prices it makes me sick. Home Depot and Lowe's won't ship them to me and when they're stocked in stores some a hole sweeps in at 6 am and buys the lot.
Our government does nothing. All bullsh*t and bluster.Trump really believes that like before World War 2 we can escape fascism, when it's already here.
Just a side note. I stopped by my dentist yesterday and asked if she could order me some masks. Of course she could not. Said her medical supplier is experiencing shortages and has been rationing them. I mentioned to my son who works in a veterinarians office to get masks if he can.
My problem is I live with my girlfriend and her mildly autistic son. Highly functional. Has lived on his own and graduated college. Then I also have my wife and my son to look after. And too few masks. She takes an express bus loaded with people in to Manhattan to a law office each day. Her job is due to end this year. This whole thing is going to push it closer no doubt. The ramifications of this are extreme. Business will come to a halt, schools and public gatherings will as well. Life as you know it is changing for the worse. I'm not one to say the sky is falling, but this is an extraordinary, extreme circumstance.
I think I'll move to Antarctica.
On another note, I mentioned MA, it's been dropping like a rock. It's in a taxable account and it passed the line in the sand yesterday below $300 per share. If anyone has any insight into where this may go PLEASE say something. I'm going to make a hard decision about this stock and will probably have to sell at least a part of it to capture the capital gain from $15 per share that I paid, then pay taxes on it next year. Which I really do not want to do. But raising cash is definitely the name of the game. Though flush with cash I can't see allowing a loss to the portfolio in this way. It must stop.
Oh and want to do something, call your representatives and tell them that the government must procure and start distributing masks now. This problem is going to be endemic in the population, once it's killed off 2% of us.
We'll be going to Costco BJ's wholesale and supermarkets and stocking up today and for now on into the immediate future. I suggest you do the same.
Brazen. Nice dividend is all. Definitely rethinking a cruise we were going to take...
Unbelievable, the best performing stock I have is NIO. Bizarre ! Up 13.9% today.
I've cancelled all buy orders. For example, JPM at $130. I don't like any stock right now even JPM at $129.80
Keeping powder dry. My most recent buys have resulted in negatives and MU CSCO and ABBV have all turned negative with MU getting hammered by analysts coming out and obliterating the company with downgrades.
When my strategy is called into question I really must re-evaluate the strategy.
Still harboring mucho cash and expect to continue viewing the sell off as an opportunity to expand stock holdings. Or at least mutual funds holdings emphasizing stock funds.
Still flush with cash though I want to shoot myself each time I look at my portfolios. Right now the more conservative IRA stock accounts are showing fewer losses. So for the moment, I'm becoming a bit more optimistic.
BABY OUT WITH THE BATHWATER. HERE WE GO.
30's my target on the vix as well. Jumped the gun as usual yesterday on stocks I either wanted for a while or stocks that I thought would be proof against this climate. How wrong was that.
So, this is what I'm doing right now...
1. An extremely huge portion of my retirement funds have been in cash (about 90% )for quite some time. I'm going to begin nibbling more at common stock and index 500 funds. I'm also going to evaluate an annuity I have which is all money market.
2. I'm going to sit on the side lines now and for the foreseeable future. The only consideration I have is certain speculative stocks related to covid 19. I may also look to short certain stocks on any upticks in the broad markets.
3. I may reduce MA, which is the largest holding in one account. Consisting of 2/3's of that account and has a net return at this point of 1,972%. Problem being that this is in a taxable account.
I'm also seeing that certain companies will disappear after and during this debacle. Dividend paying stocks will continue to be under pressure because of difficulty meeting those dividend payment requirements. This largely because of an acute retraction in spending and the economy.
In other words- We're in deep sh*t
It appears evident that the markets are now in shake out mode. With gains made over the last few years in jeopardy of turning to losses, the results may be massive sell offs across all sectors.
I THINK I'M GOING TO GO ON VACATION AND NOT WATCH THE NEXT FEW MONTHS....
BAD NEWS...AGAIN.
Good call on IRM, don't follow MRK though so I won't say.
Ex Div is coming up on IRM 3/13. Dividend can't be beat. Any thoughts about
re- positioning back into the stock ? At what price? $30
Okay Nick I have stupid questions for you. Whats your time frame for RYAAY short term. Also, whats your sell target ? The stock did very little since the decline, riding along on its bottom.
No dividend Nick
I'm still looking to open IRM from $30 to $32 Elroy. It would seem to me that IRM would be an all weather stock. Why sell ?
Initiated full dividend reinvesting as most dividend producers are down. Not out, but down.
Just a look back a few days before this sell off. I believe I hit the nail on the head with my calls. Hey that broken clock is always accurate twice a day.
I don't believe that SPCE will hit $25 any time soon...Famous last words.
Don t get why GILD has gone up so much today SNE and others are working on the covad anti viral also and appear to be much stronger companies. Only thing I can figure is higher dividend most certainly higher than Sanofi and Moderna.
Heads up on an opportunity. Look at software security companies. NET AKAM PANW and IRM even NTES, a Chinese software company. Though I never learned by investing in NIO and suggesting another Chinese company.
Reopened BP at $34 in second portfolio. Hefty 7.13% dividend. I'll take it.
MA (Mastercard) is absolutely being destroyed. An overweight position in my portfolio has driven it down by almost 3%. So far.
Yes Court, it's the end of the world. Don't you know it.
Massive red everywhere. Oi !
The virus will spread, some folks will die, economies and stocks will suffer, it'll become another endemic and life will continue on... probably.
Each new end of the world scenario spells buying opportunity. Can you say buying opportunity boys and girls ?
And I look at it this way, if this is the end then negative returns won't matter. Optimistic aren't I.
Incidentally, MU is the only semi manufacture that doesn't have a supply chain leading back to China.