would like to thank the Academy
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Spanish Yields Climb to Six-Week High as IMF, Europe Disagree
By David Goodman and Neal Armstrong - Nov 13, 2012
Spanish bonds fell, pushing the 10- year yield to a six-week high, after euro-area finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund failed to agree on the nature of additional aid for Greece.
Germany’s 10-year bonds advanced for a fifth day, with yields matching the lowest since August, after European policy makers gave Greece two extra years to reduce its budget deficit and it was left unclear whether the IMF would contribute to a future bailout. The rates on Austrian 10-year bonds, and Belgian 10- and 30-year securities, declined to records. Italian 10-year yields rose to the highest in a month.
“There’s clearly big disagreement between the IMF and Eurogroup,” said Lyn Graham-Taylor, a fixed-income strategist at Rabobank International in London. “The public nature of the spat has resulted in risk-off sentiment, which is affecting Spain.”
Spain’s 10-year yield increased four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 5.93 percent as of 9:42 a.m. London time, after reaching 5.96 percent, the highest since Oct. 1. The 5.85 percent security due in January 2022 fell 0.285, or 2.85 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,268) face amount, to 99.415. The nation’s two-year rate climbed four basis points 3.26 percent, after rising to 3.29 percent, the most since Oct. 12.
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde took issue with a decision by the euro chiefs to postpone the goal of getting Greece’s debt down to a “sustainable” level of 120 percent of GDP by two years, until 2022.
Greek Deficit
European finance ministers granted Greece until 2016 to cut the nation’s deficit to 2 percent of gross domestic product, putting off until Nov. 20 a decision on how to cover additional Greek requirements of as much as 32.6 billion euros.
Greek bonds dropped before the nation auctions as much as 3.125 billion euros of 28-and 91-day bills. The yield on Greece’s 2 percent bond due February 2023 rose 11 basis points to 17.99 percent, leaving the price at 30.81 percent of face value. Italian 10-year bonds declined, pushing the yield up as much as five basis points to 5.08 percent, the most since Oct. 11.
“We’re still waiting for some kind of resolution,” said John Wraith, a fixed-income strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London. “It reminds you that an awful lot of hurdles still remain between us and genuine stability. That’s having a ripple effect in peripheral markets.”
Oh good, the UNIONS will be there, as they have EVERYONE'S INTEREST at the top of their agenda.
Roger that. I am in the market for a new laptop anyway, will probably come pre-loaded, so no matter what, I would be using it ANYWAY.
Damn technology!
Asian Stocks Fall Fourth Day, Led by Financial Firms
By Adam Haigh - Nov 12, 2012
Asian stocks fell to a two-month led by banking shares and developers after Australia’s business confidence deteriorated and on a report China may expand a property tax trial.
Westpac Banking Corp. dropped 1.7 percent in Sydney. QBE Insurance Group Ltd. (QBE) sank 6.1 percent as analysts cut ratings for Australia’s biggest insurer after lowered its profit forecast. Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. (813) led Chinese developers lower in Hong Kong. Petrochina Co. slid 1.7 percent as oil prices declined.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) slipped 0.7 percent to 119.94 as of 12:01 p.m. in Tokyo. The gauge has fallen 2.1 percent this quarter as companies from Honda Motor Co. to QBE cut forecasts even as data showed the slowdown in China’s economy may be reversing.
“Markets are priced in for very low growth and there’s still quite a lot of pessimism around,” said Nader Naeimi, Sydney-based head of dynamic asset allocation at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which manages almost $100 billion. “You see the lack of conviction and skepticism in low volumes. This shows investors worry, anxiety and skepticism to participate in the market.”
The MSCI Asia Pacific gained 11 percent through yesterday from this year’s low on June 4 as central banks added stimulus to spur growth and data showed a slowdown in China may be ending. Markets in Malaysia and Singapore are closed today for a holiday.
Relative Value
The Asia-Pacific gauge traded at 13.2 times estimated earnings as of Nov. 9, compared with 13.3 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 12.1 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) retreated 0.3 percent today, erasing an earlier gain of 0.5 percent as the yen strengthened. Volume was 26 percent less than the 30-day average for the time of day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1 percent amid a sell-off in Chinese shares listed in the city. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) lost 1.7 percent. The gauge, Asia’s best performing major gauge this quarter through Nov. 9, has fallen 5.3 percent since entering a so-called bull market on Nov. 2 after rising more than 20 percent from its low for the year.
South Korea’s Kospi slid 0.6 percent.
Australian Confidence
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index (AS51) lost 1.1 percent after a private suvery showed the countrys’ business confidence weakened The confidence index slipped to minus 1 from zero in September, a National Australia Bank Ltd. survey of more than 400 companies taken Oct. 18-31 and released in Sydney today showed. The business conditions gauge, a measure of hiring, sales and profits, dropped to minus 5 from minus 3.
Westpac Banking dropped 1.8 percent to A$24.90. National Australia bank Ltd. declined 1.6 percent to $23.26, while Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia fell more than 0.6 percent.
China is “actively” studying expanding a property tax trial at an “appropriate” time, the Xinhua News Agency cited Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Jiang Weixin as saying on the sidelines of the party congress in Beijing yesterday. The government won’t relax restrictions on home purchases in the short term, Jiang said, according to the report.
Shimao Property lost 3.6 percentt o HK$14.12. China Resources Land Ltd. (1109) declined 1.5 percent to HK$18.04.
Energy shares accounted for the largest drop of 10 industry groups on the Asian equity gauge amid signs supplies are rising in the U.S. and China, the world’s biggest crude consumers.
Petrochina dropped 1.9 percent to HK$10.14 and Cnooc Ltd. slipped 1.3 percent to A$15.78.
Hitachi Metals Ltd. (5486) lost 6.9 percent to 633 yen after the Nikkei newspaper reported it may merge with electronic-equipment manufacturer Hitachi Cable Ltd., which surged 18 percent to 126 yen. The cable unit of Hitachi Ltd. hasn’t made a profit in four years.
To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in Sydney at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Gentle at ngentle2@bloomberg.net
Mahalo. Hope to see more of you!
LOL.
Do you like Windows 8? I just don't like the LOOKS of it. I actually did read some reviews after I posted to you, and they are coming in ok. My old ass laptop couldn't even handle it.
I think AAPL is down, but not out. They SCREWED themselves by suing Samsung, THE MAKER OF THEIR CHIPS. Not the BRIGHTEST compnay, but they seem to make products that people like and buy. I am NOT an Apple guy by any stretch. Android phone, Android tablet, and a Windows PC guy ALL THE WAY.
IMF chief and EU clash over Greek debt
By Bruno Waterfield, and Louise Armitstead
6:42AM GMT 13 Nov 2012
A conflict between the International Monetary Fund and European Union erupted into the open on Monday night after Christine Lagarde publicly clashed with eurozone finance ministers over a critical target for reducing Greek debt levels.
Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, announced Greece would be given an extra two years to meet its debt reduction target of 120pc of GDP by 2022 instead of 2020.
“The target, as far as the time-frame is concerned, has been postponed to 2022,” he said.
A visibly angered Mrs Lagarde, the managing director of the IMF, shook her head and rolled her eyes at the announcement that breaches the Washington-based fund’s condition that Greek debt must become sustainable by 2020.
“We clearly have different views,” she said. “In our view the appropriate target is 120pc by 2020. It is critical that the Greek debt be sustainable."
The 2020 “debt sustainability” target was agreed as the condition for the IMF’s involvement in the second Greek bail-out agreed in March this year and an EU decision to breach it could jeopardise the whole international package.
NORE - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9674059/IMF-chief-and-EU-clash-over-Greek-debt.html
Japan lawmakers agree to avert 'fiscal cliff', election looms
2:14am EST
By Tetsushi Kajimoto
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's ruling and opposition parties agreed on Tuesday to quickly pass a deficit funding bill in parliament, in a move that will keep the country from falling off its version of a 'fiscal cliff' as the prime minister eyes elections as early as next month.
The bill is needed to borrow some $480 billion and fund roughly 40 percent of this fiscal year's budget.
Without it, the government could run out of money by the end of this month and would have to stop debt auctions next month, just as the economy teeters on the brink of a recession.
Until recently the opposition has used its control of the upper house to stall the bill in a bid to press Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to call an election. Noda had promised in Agusut to go to the polls "soon" in order to win support for an unpopular plan to hike the sales tax.
Hoping to force Noda's hand, however, the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its former coalition ally New Komeito have changed tack and looked poised to pass the deficit bond bill Noda has set as a condition for calling elections.
"I'm glad that we have demonstrated the wisdom of parliament by overcoming differences between ruling and opposition parties," Goshi Hosono, policy affairs chief of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), told reporters.
"We managed to show the people even at the last minute that parliament is functioning," he said, after striking a deal with his counterparts from the two opposition parties.
The bill is expected to pass in the lower house as early as Thursday and looks set to be enacted in the upper house with the backing of the two opposition parties during the current parliament session that ends on November 30.
In reaching the deal, the Democrats made concessions to the opposition parties by promising to review spending earmarked for the current fiscal year and curb deficit bond issuance.
The three parties agreed to allow issuance of deficit bonds through the fiscal year that starts in April 2015, meaning that passage of deficit bond bills would be secured without the bills being taken as a political hostage in the coming few years.
Countering a concern that guaranteeing issuance of deficit bonds may jeopardize fiscal discipline, the three parties said in a statement that the deal was aimed at stabilizing fiscal management on condition that the government keeps such bond issuance under control and maintains sustainable finances.
MORE - http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/13/us-japan-politics-fiscal-idUSBRE8AC07520121113?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28Business+News%29
<mish>Greece Allegedly Gets Time, Not Money; Mish Says Time Is Money
After forcing Greece into more austerity measures, the next tranche of emergency loans to Greece (most of which will ultimately do a round trip back to Brussels) is now delayed because the path Greece is on is still not sustainable.
Greece still requires additional funding of around €32 billion. Germany has said no and the ECB has said no.
Please consider Greece to get more time but no immediate aid.
Euro zone governments will not agree to disburse more money to debt-ravaged Greece on Monday, despite the country approving a tough 2013 budget, because there is not yet a consensus on how to make its debts sustainable into the next decade.
Finance ministers gathered in Brussels should, however, give Athens two more years to make the budget deficit cuts demanded of it, a concession that will require funding of around 32 billion euros, according to a draft document prepared for the meeting.
The Greek parliament passed an austerity budget for 2013 late on Sunday and a structural reform package last Wednesday, meeting the conditions for the release of the next tranche of 31.5 billion euros of emergency loans from the euro zone.
But officials said the money would not be released since ministers are waiting for the European Commission, the IMF and the European Central Bank, together known as the troika, to present their 'debt sustainability analysis'.
A compliance report by the troika calculated that if ministers agree to give Greece two more years to meet its targets, extra funding of around 15 billion euros would be needed up to 2014 and another 17.6 billion for 2015/16 -- amounting to a 32.6 billion euros funding hole to be filled.
Discussion on how to close that gap will be top of the ministers' agenda on Monday.
Officials hope granting Greece two more years to meet its goals will allow the economy to start growing again, otherwise it would never produce enough for the country to repay its debt.
A target was set in March for Greece to achieve a primary surplus of 4.5 percent of GDP in 2014 and while there is no final decision yet, officials say it is likely to be moved to 2016 because of delays with reforms and a deeper than expected recession.
The two extra years would also mean that the targeted Greek debt-to-GDP ratio, would be shifted to 2022, officials said.
Time is Money
One amusing thing about this ridiculous result is that time is clearly money. By giving Greece more time, Greece needs to come up with another €32.6 billion.
One way or another, creditors will have to take another haircut.
No amount of hoping, wishful thinking, or delays can change one simple fact: Virtually none of these loans will be paid back. The Troika may as well shift the date to the 12th of never as to 2022.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/11/greece-allegedly-gets-time-not-money.html#F33djwOx2rWY9FB8.99
LOL, I am a LITTLE older than you. I had an Atari 800 at one point with a WHOPPING 48k memory! At the time, we thought, 'What the heck do you need THAT much memory for?'
I have seen Windows 8, and it looks like a big huge pile of garbage. I will wait for the reviews to see if it is worth it, but from the looks of it, unadulterated crap. Microsoft is also yesterday. They allowed Android and Apple to EAT THEIR LUNCH. Now they are playing catch-up, and absolutely NOBODY CARES. They are too late to the game, and may meet the same fate as RIMM if they don't step it up.
Treasuries See U.S. Over Cliff as Yields Converge
By Susanne Walker and John Detrixhe - Nov 13, 2012
(Corrects full name of Gross’s company in 13th paragraph)
The biggest Treasury rally in five months is underlining market concern that President Barack Obama and House Republicans will fail to avert $607 billion in mandated spending cuts and tax increases starting Jan. 1.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries dropped the most in one day since May to 1.62 percent after Obama’s re-election Nov. 6. A figure below 1.7 percent indicates that investors expect gross domestic product to shrink by 0.3 percent next year as the so- called fiscal cliff takes effect, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Rates on longer-term Treasuries have converged with those of non-U.S. government bonds globally, after remaining about 1 percentage point above them in 2011.
While the economy is creating jobs, housing prices are recovering and consumer confidence is the highest in five years, bond investors are seeking safety from a possible downturn next year. Yields dropped to a two-month low on the prospect of a divided Congress stalling any budget deal and impeding the recovery from the worst recession since the Great Depression.
“The fiscal cliff is being priced in because it’s the biggest risk facing the market right now,” Priya Misra, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York, one of the 21 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve, said Nov. 7 in a telephone interview. “Without the cliff we would grow 2 to 2.25 percent.”
GDP Cut
The Congressional Budget Office said Nov. 8 the tax rises and spending cuts would cause GDP to contract 0.5 percent in 2013 and push unemployment to 9.1 percent in the fourth quarter of next year. The jobless rate was 7.9 percent in October.
Obama and House Speaker John Boehner are already staking out negotiating positions. The president in a Nov. 9 statement repeated a campaign pledge to let income levies rise for wealthier Americans. The Republican congressional leader said the same day he wanted to avoid any rate increases and spending cuts while beginning a process to overhaul entitlements and the tax code.
About 80 percent of respondents to a survey from Citigroup Inc. released Nov. 9 expect at least temporary relief from related cuts, expiring tax cuts, or both, at the end of the year. About 75 percent expect only modest progress in the next three months, followed by postponing a resolution for about six months.
MORE - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2012-11-13/treasuries-see-u-s-over-cliff-as-yields-converge-correct-.html
<zh>Post-Election Performance: Dip-Buyer's Dream Or Valuation Slump
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/12/2012 20:49 -0500
With the S&P 500 down a staggering 6.5% from its post-QEtc highs, the world and their wealth adviser is beginning to get that Deja Deja Deja Vu feeling all over again. The commission-takers are being trotted out left, right, and center to spew forth every market myth from "money-on-the-sidelines" to "markets-hate-uncertainty"; from "valuation is cheap" and "whatcha' gonna do - buy bonds at 1.5% yield?"; and from "healthy retracement" to "long-term horizon". In today's episode of epic realizations of the truth, we thought we would look at year-end multiple expansion (contraction) seasonals - since we suspect earnings expectations (which are still running dramatically high; even though recently trending lower) - remain exorbitantly hopeful of a fiscal cliff resolution bringing joy and happiness to the world. Fact: post-election-year multiples have on average contracted around 1x versus a 0.6x expansion in non-election years.
The chart below shows the change in P/E multiple for the S&P 500 on average through the year - in election years, non-election years, and the current year...
Euro falls below $1.27 amid Greek uncertainty
By Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Concerns surrounding Greece’s fiscal crisis sent the euro below the $1.27 handle to hit a two-month low against the dollar Tuesday.
The euro (ICAPC:EURUSD) fell to $1.2683 during Asia hours, down from $1.2711 in late North American trade.
The decline came after euro-zone finance ministers failed to reach agreement to disburse the next round of financial aid to Greece, pushing a decision on the matter to later this month. Read: Euro zone aims for Nov. 20 Greek aid decision
Crédit Agricole said the euro-dollar pair looked likely to test its 100-day moving average around $1.2639. And while a strong result from German investor-sentiment data, due out later in the day, could offer the European currency “a little respite,” it was likely to “be insufficient to turn the [euro] around in the short term,” the firm said.
“At a time when the U.S. fiscal cliff is rapidly overtaking peripheral euro-zone issues as a cause for concern, the inability of the [euro] to capitalize on this is a bit disconcerting,” Crédit Agricole said in a strategy note Tuesday.
With most majors losing ground against the greenback, the ICE dollar index (NYE:DXY) , which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of six other currencies, rose to 81.162 from 81.052 late Monday.
Among the currencies losing ground to the dollar, the Australian dollar (ICAPC:AUDUSD) fell to $1.0405 from $1.0431, while the British pound (ICAPC:GBPUSD) slipped to $1.5861 from $1.5878.
The Japanese yen pushed higher against both the dollar and euro, however, with the moves helping Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei Stock Average (TYO:JP:100000018) end lower for a seventh session, down 0.2%.
The dollar (ICAPC:USDJPY) fell to ¥79.28 from ¥79.49, while the euro (ICAPC:EURJPY) lost almost half a yen to trade at ¥100.58 versus late Monday’s ¥101.06.
I know what you're saying, but retail is really slacking lately, and the 'old guard' retailers seem to be behind the times, like JCP. The Sears at the mall where I live is always pretty empty, and looks like crap. It just LOOKS old school. And what are they? Hardware store? Housewares? Clothing? Even WMT stock heading down. The Sears thing is all my dopey opinion, but I feel it follows JCP.
I think the Sears customer is going to Home Depot or Lowes for their hardware, Macy's for their clothes (The Macys in the mall has a LOT more traffic than the Sears)etc... Or of course, ONLINE. Note that JCP had LOUSY online sales. Again, all my dopey opinion!
Hello Slojab and other cigar lovers! Got back yesterday from a trip to some nasty part of Afghanistan. Smoked some cheapies, nothing to write home about. Will hopefully be smoking a Gurkha this afternoon. I got a Widow Maker on tap.
SHLD Retail just blowing chunks now, and crappy retailers will REALLY take heat. Sears is about as yesterday and crappy as you can get. I am expecting them to have earnings like JCP, which means they will suck even MORE than thought. Will probably dump to about $50 by Friday (They report on Thursday, AFTER THE BELL)
Thinking it just goes bye bye right through the rest of NOV, and hit the $40 mark. $52.92 Puts are 1.52, going to grab me some.
SHLD Retail just blowing chunks now, and crappy retailers will REALLY take heat. Sears is about as yesterday and crappy as you can get. I am expecting them to have earnings like JCP, which means they will suck even MORE than thought. Will probably dump to about $50 by Friday (They report on Thursday, AFTER THE BELL)
Thinking it just goes bye bye right through the rest of NOV, and hit the $40 mark. $52.92 Puts are 1.52, going to grab me some.
SHLD Retail just blowing chunks now, and crappy retailers will REALLY take heat. Sears is about as yesterday and crappy as you can get. I am expecting them to have earnings like JCP, which means they will suck even MORE than thought. Will probably dump to about $50 by Friday (They report on Thursday, AFTER THE BELL)
Thinking it just goes bye bye right through the rest of NOV, and hit the $40 mark. $52.92 Puts are 1.52, going to grab me some.
The gift that will also start and keep on TAKING, lol.
That is awesome. Wrap her up in a bow, and you got yourself your Christmas Present!!
Hey True! Glad you got some free grub. I salute YOU for all you did. Hope you are still hitting the gym and staying in shape.
Head of Microsoft's Windows unit steps down
10:00pm EST
(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp said the head of its flagship Windows division and the driving force behind Windows 8, Steven Sinofsky, will be leaving the company with immediate effect, shortly after the software giant launched the Surface tablet.
Sinofsky, who presented at the launch of the Windows 8 operating system in New York City last month, will be succeeded by Julie Larson-Green, who will head the Windows hardware and software division, the company said in a statement.
Tami Reller will remain chief financial officer and chief marketing officer and will assume responsibility for the business of Windows.
Both executives will report directly to Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, Microsoft said.
The company gave no reason for Sinofsky's departure.
Euro Falls to Two-Month Low on Greece Bailout Concern
By Kristine Aquino and Monami Yui - Nov 12, 2012
The euro fell to a two-month low as finance ministers from the currency bloc struggled to agree on Greek aid, curbing demand for the common currency.
The 17-nation euro slid versus most of its major peers after Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said European ministers will meet again on Nov. 20 to discuss Greece, putting off a decision on how to cover the nation’s need for additional financing of as much as 32.6 billion euros ($41 billion). The yen gained against all of its most-traded counterparts, reversing an earlier drop, as Asian shares slid.
“Investors are growing concerned about the risk that Greece will run out of money and that will lead to its exit from the euro,” said Kengo Suzuki, a currency strategist in Tokyo at the unit of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (8411), Japan’s third-largest bank by market value. “Further delay for the bailout will continue to weigh on the euro.”
The euro lost 0.2 percent to $1.2683 as of 12:41 p.m. in Tokyo, after earlier weakening to $1.2677, the least since Sept. 7. It declined 0.4 percent to 100.64 yen. Japan’s currency rallied 0.2 percent to 79.35 per dollar.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of shares sank 0.7 percent, falling for a fourth day.
Euro-area finance ministers will gather in an “extraordinary meeting” next week to discuss Greece’s financing needs, they said in a statement, read out by Juncker at the conclusion of a meeting in Brussels. The ministers also granted Greece until 2016 to cut the deficit to 2 percent of gross domestic product.
Financing Gap
Plans to give the debt-ridden nation two more years to meet deficit-reduction targets would open up financing gaps of 15 billion euros through 2014 and 17.6 billion euros in 2015-2016, according to an assessment by the so-called troika of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund that was obtained by Bloomberg News.
In Germany, the ZEW Center for European Economic Research’s gauge assessing the current economic situation probably fell to 8 this month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before today’s report. That would be the lowest since June 2010 and compares with a reading of 10 in October.
Its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, may have recovered to minus 10 in November from minus 11.5 in the previous month, a separate poll showed.
MORE - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2012-11-12/euro-near-2-month-low-as-leaders-struggle-on-greek-aid.html
That was ALL a nice way of saying "You know what, thanks, but we are DONE dumping money into a bottomless hole. Good luck, thanks for playing, now get out."
But the way they said it was MUCH more diplomatic.
Ugh! Kicked off the internet twice already. VERY scary when trading options. Dumped my SPY Puts for .75, a bit over 10%, good enough for me. All out for now, back tomorrow. Have a good one everybody!