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Lets call a spade a spade. The markets hate uncertainty.
There has been virtually no leadership from this administration which has lead to extreme uncertainty
3 months ago was the time to act. Test kits and preparedness would have reduced this threat. Saving lives.
Reduced uncertainty may have resulted in orderly markets.
Uncertainty now prevails, The rout continues.
Simple.
Welcome to the trump recession. What rabbit could he possibly have to pull out of his hat.
Incidentally, DIS didn't hit my price target of $86 today... Maybe tomorrow ?
AMZN lurching and careening uncontrollably with a new low of 1677 towards it's 52 week low of $1672 with some upticks. Extreme volume. Now back up to $1680.
Elroy,
I can't think in those terms right now. I'm reverting to my old ways of day trading stocks carefully focused upon. Not a guarantee of success, but today was a good day , at least in that way. Still licking my wounds from this bloodbath. There'll be plenty of time to cost average. I just can't think in those terms right now. Stocks go up, we rest on our laurels. Stocks go down we lament the fact and maybe add. I'll wait for them to go up and lament the losses I have from companies no longer in business. And cheer the ones that go green.
But today's almost over and tomorrow's another day.
AMZN just hit 1689.14. Low for this day. I'm tempted...again.
It broke- $1688. A new paradigm. Now $1685. That's it for me ! I think I may be done.
AMZN filled at 1705. 1690 to 1705.
Two round trips today with AMZN. I like AMZN.
AMZN approaching 1690, buy order in for that number. At what price did you add IRM ?
Opened AMZN again at 1690.
I wouldn't go in to AMZN right now. It's trading within a tighter range.
It may happen again shortly Elroy. For me now is not the time to hold.
Turned around AMZN from 1700 to 1750. Quick day trade sale. Looking to get back in once mid afternoon market rise drops.
Markets still paring losses... Money coming in.
Nick,
AMZN is the only stock I'm now looking at. Still waiting to see it establish some floor. It's wild gyrations may allow for day trading. That's all I think I can do. I'm not doubling tripling and quadrupling down on stocks I have already. When they come back, and some will, I'll see green again.
What we need is some good news to move the markets in another direction. My thought is that we won't hear that for a while. I hope that we do, but I don't think I will.
For every stock sold there's that stock being bought. At least that's what some are saying. Minor consolation. Shorts continue to rule the day.
Do's and dont's in this stock market: Don't panic, do develop a plan -- even if you didn't have one before
11:49 am ET March 12, 2020 (MarketWatch)
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By Nigam Arora
Now more than ever you must make investing and trading decisions based on probabilities
The stock market is plunging.
Buying opportunities are developing, but it's not the right time, with the exception of "nibbles" by those who meet the protection-band criteria. Please read "Stock market investors are asking 'should I buy or sell?' Here's how to decide (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-asking-should-i-buy-or-sell-heres-how-to-decide-2020-03-09)."
Last week I warned you that a watershed moment was on the way if stocks couldn't hold a level that I had provided. Alas, the level has not held. A bigger watershed moment is on the way if the next level doesn't hold. Please see "A watershed moment is on the way if stocks can't hold this level (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-watershed-moment-is-on-the-way-if-stocks-cant-hold-this-level-2020-03-06)."
Let's explore with the help of two charts.
Two charts
Please click here (https://thearorareport.com/chart-Chart-analysis-stock-market-coronavirus-trump-speech-travel) for an annotated chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), which tracks the Dow .
Please click here (https://thearorareport.com/chart-Chart-analysis-stock-market-coronavirus-how-low-can-it-go-support?mod=article_inline) for an annotated chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which represents the S&P 500 Index . For the sake of transparency, this chart was previously published and no changes have been made.
Note the following:
-- The first chart shows two support zones. The top support zone is marked "support zone." The bottom support zone is marked "mother of support zones."
-- If the top support zone does not hold, a bigger watershed event is on its way.
-- The chart shows the Arora signal to buy inverse ETF (SQQQ) or short-sell Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) before the big drop in the stock market.
-- The second chart shows the prior support zone that has been broken.
-- The second chart shows the "program-selling" point where the selling accelerated. This program-selling point and the second chart were provided well in advance before this leg of the stock market drop, giving investors plenty of time to protect themselves.
-- The first chart shows that RSI (relative strength index) is very oversold. This indicates that the slightest bit of good news could cause a rip-roaring rally.
-- The first chart shows that volume is still not high. This indicates complacency among investors. In more practical terms, it means there is more downside to come, perhaps after a rally that fails.
Ask Arora: Nigam Arora answers your questions about investing in stocks, ETFs, bonds, gold and silver, oil and currencies. Have a question? Send it to Nigam Arora (mailto:ask-arora@thearorareport.com).
Do's and dont's
Here are helpful pointers if your portfolios aren't protected as much as they should be.
-- Do not panic.
-- Develop a plan. Hope is not a good strategy.
-- Bear markets have some of the sharpest rallies.
-- Use the rallies to build protection.
-- There is potential for good news in many ways.
-- Start with Arora's Third Law of Investing and Trading: "Making investing and trading decisions based on probabilities is the only realistic and profitable approach."
-- The support zone shown on the first chart has about a 30% probability of holding.
-- The mother of support zones shown on the first chart has an 80% probability of holding.
Popular stocks
At The Arora Report we are receiving questions on popular stocks. Here are the brief answers:
-- Apple (AAPL) is not likely to see lasting damage in the developed world but may see lasting damage in the developing world. In the developed world, iPhone sales will only be deferred and not lost. In the developing world, some iPhone sales will be lost forever.
-- Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOGL)(GOOGL) will lose some advertising revenues but will benefit by the higher use of their services.
-- Amazon (AMZN) will benefit from more deliveries to the home. However, investors should work out the numbers based on a scenario of the coronavirus spreading to Amazon warehouses and Amazon being unable to deliver.
-- Tesla (TSLA) may be negatively affected by lower oil prices.
-- Intel (INTC), AMD (AMD) and Microsoft (MSFT) will see sales deferred but not lost.
Answers to your questions
Answers to many of your questions are already in my previous writings this year. You can access some of them by clicking here (http://www.marketwatch.com/search).
Disclosure: Subscribers to The Arora Report (http://thearorareport.com/) may have positions in the securities mentioned in this article or may take positions at any time. Nigam Arora (http://www.marketwatch.com/author/nigam-arora) is an investor, engineer and nuclear physicist by background who has founded two Inc. 500 fastest-growing companies. He is the founder of The Arora Report, which publishes four newsletters. Nigam can be reached at Nigam@TheAroraReport.com (mailto:Nigam@TheAroraReport.com).
-Nigam Arora; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 12, 2020 11:49 ET (15:49 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
There is no comprehensive emergency epidemiological plan. That was defunded and eliminated by this administration.
I'll respond to one statement you've made regarding slowing and reducing the curve. If we can reduce the amount of sickness and enable emergency rooms and health care facilities to handle numbers of the sick, we stand a chance of reducing fatalities.
Yes, it may be that bad.
The question for now at this minute is how deep the markets will be drop and how bad and long lived a world wide recession will be ?
I still have my buy list but am reluctant to pull the trigger till there's more clarity. Squabbling between the two parties in congress isn't helping either.
The continued lack of testing vexes...
Nero fiddles while Rome burns.
Well, my last green turned red. BX because of some stupid purchase they're doing of some Chinese company. Thank you BX, you've completed that picture.
In the other portfolio I have a few greens. NFBK, FB, T and WMT. That's it. My buy targets have been blasted through for most companies on my list so, sitting on my hands now.
Looking to add to FB when the time is right, open AMZN, open IBM again, sell CODX if that opportunity presents itself again. Seems that Amazon tested a new low this morning and bounced back quickly. Down to 1696, now at 1723. I've been watching AMZN for a while and it hit below that support of 1715 to 1701 yesterday then bounced back all over the place. Seems to be doing the same now, only at lower levels right now.
Buy target for FB is below $140. IBM blasted through its buy target of 113.It's now at 106. Disney nearing my buy target of 86.
Dreams do come true. Unfortunately they've been turning into nightmares.
Nice dividend, only down $3.
I'll be glad when this day is over.
CODX all over the map.
Hopefully this will be ameliorated before long. Hey, I can hope, can't I ?
The end of the world occurs often enough. Just waiting for the end of the world to finish ending so as to get back to other things.
Me too, I cut my position in STWD way back at the start of this thing. STWD has not fared anyway near as bad as others. That and BX.
I have flu like symptoms. Can I have a vacation ?
CODX at $13.60. I wouldn't buy it here, but after watching this since this whole virus thing heated up, I'd say it may pull back and be careful if you enter this one.
Federal State of Emergency inevitable.
Dow down 20%
...and whatever you do, don't breathe.
CODX at $13.20
Nick,
I'm a conservative by nature ( believe it or not ) but gave up on the party when this sh*t hit the fan in 2016. I've been steadily veering towards the middle for a long time and now more than ever. That said, I vote my wallet, regardless of politics I believe common sense should prevail, whether or not it does. Political choices are bad once again. Oh well. 4 more years (dreading that thought ).
P.S. My estimate has been there will be a world wide recession.
I think ssnyl was asking if it's a good entry point Nick.
Trials are on now, so there's hope that would add greatly to reduce uncertainty.
pence is not a medical practitioner or scientist. The administration is talking with forked tongue. On one side medical/scientific/epidemiological. The other side political/business/economy. Never the twains seem to meet. If this admin had the foresight to recognize the impact upon the markets and economy let alone people and their lives or deaths, maybe things wouldn't have deteriorated to this extent. That said again and again.
I'm still not licking my lips Court. But watching watching. At this point since taking profits I'm not adding significantly to losers. They'll have to go that way without me tagging along.
I opened CODX prematurely, Zacks has a 2 out of 5 rating on the stock for its covid19 test kits.
This had been a penny stock with negative earnings. It's been trading between .69 and $21.79
That said, most recently it's traded near $5 and $8. Finally broke out to $11.
Just a thought. Even now, I won't add, but seeing potential for some decent return...hopefully.
Haley,
The previous administration dealt effectively with the Ebola and the H1N1 virus. The previous administration had formulated and implemented a plan for this contingency.
This administration shelved that comprehensive plan and underfunded the agencies that would implement that plan. FYI.
Ignore that if you choose.
Don't forget your N95 masks. That's the only ace in the hole I have. The H1N1 virus scare prompted me to purchase N95's when no one had a clue what they were.
Since when I was an electrician (retired from civil service with NYC) I did asbestos abatement. Pulled out my full face respirator replete with filters and tyvek suits... just in case.
That is so true Court
Just because its happened before does not mean it will occur again. However, unless the world is ending, which it's not, the markets will recover...at some point.
Agreed, as you and I have stated. Common sense dictates.
I don't believe that the administration is doing anything to purposely allow rampant contagion. My belief has been that the administration has not done enough to stop a rampant contagion. Right from the denial stage that "it won't happen here". Many don't want to hear that, but it's fundamentally true.
As I've said before, the administration stuck it's head in the sand, saying there was no virus threat believing that saying it would make it true.
Yes, but the (October 2020) 30 month flexible CD I have with Ardent Credit Union is 2.65%. It's the best for me. It's savings money that I wouldn't put into a bank. The beauty is that over the 30 months I can still take out up to 50% on a one time basis and can always decide to put more in.
That BREIT I'm looking to invest in with Morgan Stanley costs 1% load and that's something I'm not inclined to do. But skeptical as I am, if it's safe and does what the prospectus indicates, it should return a minimum of 4-5% with the chance of a 6-7% return.
My goal is to continue to provide a 5% income from investments. This year is tough. Last year was 5.5%.
The NYC Deferred Compensation Plan is only paying around 2.5%. My Union Annuity is only paying around 3.5%. That's simply not enough. Puts too much stress on a limited amount outside of those funds to return a lot.
Here we go again. Dow futures down 222. Oy !
I heard on the news here today that the virus has a 9 day life outside of a host. So even if you avoid folks with runny noses and dry coughs, you need to be wary of everything you touch.
Wash your hands frequently, use hand sanitizer, don't touch your hands to your face or eyes.
Good point Nick, I think it depends on the broker you have also. Ameritrade pays nothing on my meager cash and stock accpunts and mutual funds cost $$$ to go into. Ameritrade doesn't wave load fees on most funds. Fidelity mostly does. I'm going to move cash to Fidelity. Would move everything since Fidelity my account is open and funded, but the transfer would take 3-4 days and I don't want to leave the stocks to chance during transfer. When things cool down, I'll move stocks over.
This money in the CD's are easy to keep as back up, and the return is better than a bank account. Having a cash account is important for contingencies. I'm not loaded so this is the best I can do to get a decent short term rate on less than $100,000.
Even Morgan Stanley, which I'm in process to move some IRA money pays only around 2%.
** That said, is anyone familiar with the Blackstone Real Estate Investment Trust. (BREIT) It's a private placement and I'm weighing investment in that with Morgan Stanley.**
Bond yields continue lower. Locked in 2.65% 30 month CD in October. Can add to it whenever I choose. 30 month at 1.98% coming due now. Will move in to October 30 month CD. Flexible CD with Ardent Credit Union allows for one time up to 50% withdrawal.
Now Ardent's 30 month is 1%. Not worth it.
Thanks for that Nick, My goal is to make IRM a long term hold. IRM seems to have bottomed at $29.20.
Now at $29.39.
Added to IRM at $29.20. Cost basis now $30.60
Previously my original intent was to open at $30, but pulled the trigger too early at $32.
Also added to BP this morning on a previous order. Surprise ! added at $27. Maybe a little pricey.
OXY slashes dividend.
IRM at $29.20
Not enough to compensate for losses in the market Elroy. Good for us, bad for Shale.
Yes SF,
I'm not too sure the Japanese wouldn't have done what they did without the embargo. Their aggression in the region was largely unchallenged by the US at the time. An oil embargo may have contributed, but I don't believe that it was the main cause. We were reticent to enter a war not directly affecting us and the attack which brought us in to the war was essentially the point at which the Axis began loosing. Yes it took time to defeat them, but once we entered that paradigm changed.
That's why we look to Nick for guidance SF.
Let me know where Nick I've been looking at IRM for a long term hold.
Good news from trump and pence.
Petroleum used as a weapon. Hmmmm....
My buy target I've had on DIS is still $86 and has been for years.
I posed that question earlier today in my home.
My stated response to this outbreak is based on my Degree in Health Care Administration, Public Health with coursework in Epidemiology.
https://www.webcenter11.com/content/news/Symptoms-and-Transmission-of-COVID-19-568461161.html
Treat it like a cold ? How is transmission possible from someone that's asymptomatic ?
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html
https://www.vox.com/2020/2/20/21143785/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-transmission-how
To me none of this seems to explain how someone that's completely asymptomatic ( no runny nose, sneezing or coughing or transmitting to surfaces ) can spread the disease. Intimate contact of course will spread the disease.
If it's found that disease spread can occur through breathing alone that would be scary.
I haven't found any articles stating how long this virus can live outside a host. In the air or on surfaces. That should be known at this point.
It seems to me that the virus has to gain entry through the eyes nose throat. That's a given.
I instruct Dance classes twice a week and today provided lots of questions and no answers about how to conduct the class. No guidance from management.
Fading gains... Head fake.
China on the upswing. Europe and the U.S. along with the rest of the world still reeling from CV. China production will sit on the docks till the rest of the world follows to eradicate CV. China may recover first, but until this epidemic is eradicated there'll be a slow recovery. Oil suffers. Other sectors cut back.
First case on Staten Island self quarantine at home.