Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Oh yeah, right, conspiracy...
Problem is "they" (whom?) tried to do this since many months now, and they did it so well...
Overwhelming efficacy? Uhmmmmmmmm...
Now we wait till possibly July? Uhmmmmmmmm...
With the 11M soon due (ok in instalments, but that doesn't change the cash requirements too much), I give it 2 to 4 weeks before - if a partnership isn't announced - the stock price goes to extremely low levels due to a possible cash crunch (low .20s or lower IMO). It's obviously my own opinion.
So the best case scenario is that a partnership with upfront payment is FINALLY (!!!) announced within 2 weeks.
What does the structure of a partnership have to do with the MC of a company? Oh my...I can understand you are not familiar with partnerships, M&A and so on, but at least it should be a given that the structure of a partnership has to deal with lots of variables, but MC has nothing to do with any of those.
That's absolutely my hope, too, a partnership deal to be announced within 3 weeks, othernot...
What are you talking about? It's not legally possible...isn't it obvious?
That's true in absolute terms. However I would be worried if 4M shares are given away...in such a way, besides the percentage that they really weight on the OS, plus I didn't like at all the fact that to me it seemed that the Co. had no choice but to accept this agreement. This is obviously my feeling.
This is the only positive I could see, I agree.
See, when people in a MB take it personally it's when they are over with arguments. Sorry you finished them so early, have fun with your optimism...
4M shares for a couple of months delay...it's hard to call it non-dilutive...
I thought the worst was 1 year ago...but you are right, we have seen worse than that actually...
I love yours as well, optimism is always a great thing, keep it up.
In my personal opinion the Co. (which didn't give any guidance related to the matter as far as I know), has cash to fund operations for about 1 more month. This, again, in my personal opinion, does mean that either the Co. will either sign a partnership deal with interesting upfront payment or will finally release PFS hopefully good data, or we shareholders are toasted as a massive dilution might be in the way. Given that the 11M notes basically didn't have any real restructuring but simply a "kick in the can" as someone in here defined it (a definition that I tend to agree to), time is ticking up for good. That "kick in the can" basically had a 4M shares cost, or - if you prefer - a cost of about 1.5M (once again, this is my personal opinion). This time there won't be any delay. Once again, in my own personal opinion, it will either be a matter of a toin coss, either we shareholders win or we lose, in just a matter of a few weeks.
When you hold debt you are always on the "right side of the story", that's why I believe they didn't want to convert the debt at all, besides the 4M in stock. If shareholders get great news, than that original 11M in debt will now more than double in value, if shareholders don't get great news, then they might anyhow be able to have the debt-for-equity-swap option in Ch.11 (or even before any Ch.11 if an agreement is found). What many people here don't get is that IMO it's not the company which is in the "wrong part of the story", but many of its shareholders, at least many of those who have a considerable high average price. Once again, at this point, IMO the only good news any shareholder would want to hear is any form of stable cash injection, which at this point I believe could only come through partnerships. FDA holding lift, notes maturity being pushed farther, any other news won't move the stock price.
Also April 19 is just around 1 month after spring start and June 20 around summer start, don't you see a connection? Come on...
It depends, if you like this deal, then I might agree with you. If you don't like this deal (as I don't), I would question myself: how bad where those other deals and why? I mean, if there are billions at stake, as some people said in this MB, why don't investors run to buy the stock or the entire company?
Very smart observation...
Too bad that you are one person, but the market is made of tons of people, and the market didn't seem to like the news as much as you did.
I wonder, why do you disclose your supposed holdings? Do you think that your confidence would make other people be confident to purchase shares? Just wondering...
Thank you for your post. I believe will we have many more pages with the same discussions over and over. It's a MB of scientists and statisticians, lucky we are.
Investors often tend to think there's something behind the scenes in order to justify a stock price and/or trend/decline. In the vast majority of cases, there's simply nothing behind and it was just investors' hints. Now, if you believe there's something behind what you observed, what would it be?
Same stuff over and over...once again, there are about 10 business days left untill the company will have to buy the notes if a different deal isn't find in the meanwhile. In my opinion, they either finally announce the partnership details with BMS, or another big cash raise through share issuance. If the latter happens, well...you get the idea. This is on the finance part.
On corporate parts, I am still waiting to know how the internal investigation ended up, did you hear any news? Uhm...
Surely enough, within 12 business days...
So basically if the repurchase offer has been accepted, the company has untill March the 10th to make the repurchase, which is basically 12 business days left...in 12 business days in my opinion we will get to know if finally some news about the partnership with BMS will have some relief with eventually upfront payments, or if shareholders will be very heavily diluted, once again.
Smaller financings in terms of what? Amount of shares issued?
Where did you see the financings increase the price per share?
Who are those retail investors who earned the respect of management for holding long and strong?
The MFN clause appaeared to me to have no chance but to disappear...actually...why has it ever been put in place?
Hope doesn't make money, shareholders need facts. Have you seen any other forms of financing in the last years that wasn't done by diluting current shareholders? Hope unfortunately didn't help.
Again, I would not want that someone is missing the point. With the soon need for cash, and unless a lucrative partnership is signed in the very next few weeks, it is most likely in my opinion that even if the company will survive as an entity, current shareholders will have such a dilutive path that they might never recover their invested money. I do not believe that people invest (and eventually lose) their money for the sake of the science to succeed, but indeed they would want to do so in order to have some sort of reward. The more the time goes by without any money gathered from partnerships or non-dilutive forms of funding, the more it is in my opinion most likely that noone of current shareholders will have reasons to be happy.
That's why the stock increased so much in the last weeks.
Basically, considering that it might take several months to have OS reached...with the company in my opinion very close to needing money once again, I believe we are in a crossroad: either the company announces soon a lucrative partnership with nice upfront payment and/or undilutive financing, or next round of cheap shares is in the way. This time I believe there's the risk to reach around 200M shares as total O/S. How nice is that? At 3$ per share that would mean 600M valuation...quite hefty even for PIII nice results in a wait for FDA approval (still my own opinion), and I don't even want to think about bad results or mixed results at PIII. But the real question is: what's so cool of posting only the positive views and disregard what's really going on? Would a graph help any better?
Lol! Oh my...so you post astronomical target prices (or market caps if you prefer), then you write that those numbers aren't yours, you delete your original message, and as a conclusion you want to see my stuff though you are the one who posted those astronomical targets. Lol, bye bye.
I don't pretend you are familiar with modeling, and indeed it's fine, but why do you reply to me as if you are?
Just to throw in some quick notes (free to take 'em or not), the selling price of the vaccine is a given estimate (at least a given estimate close range), you can't go in a model with X and then 5 times X.
Moreover you don't need to take into consideration net sales, as most models out there (which you need to pair if you want to make objective estimates) take into consideration sales and not net sales. So adding "stuff" (which is another variable you are not aware of right now) is simply wrong.
If you keep on writing numbers without discounting the chance of approval to me it simply means you probably have not done any stock modeling before. That is fine to me, but why do you keep on writing as if you did?
One final note. When a drug isn't approved or didn't show clear signs of efficacy in many multiple trials, in the vast majority of cases all other indications are worth zero or close to zero, untill they do. As far as the current market cap, I personally see the market tends to believe this is the case, too.
Don't get me wrong, I absolutely got nothing against you, and indeed I sometimes read your posts and a few others, but when it comes to modeling and sp predictions I believe I know my way. Have a nice day, cheers.
John, sorry but assuming no dilution and not taking into consideration at least the variables I mentioned makes it very arbitrary, thus in my opinion not useful in order to discuss future share prices.
Very fun, and I still thank you for that.
To make it easy to you, when I make models for share price (as many analysts and FM do), I take into account the chance of approval, then I apply that to peak sales discounted for the years to reach it, sometimes using a discount as for market penetration, depending on reimbursment issues and/or market competition, or other factors you want to take into account to have a more complex model.
Your calculation is this "If L is approved for GBM alone, the first year market cap, IMO, will be dependent upon how many vaccines NWBO can manufacture in the first year. At a multiple of 8, that would be between $5b and $25b."
No dobut your range goes in between 5 to 25B, lol.
With a stock sitting at 70M market cap it makes me laugh to read assumptions of 5 to 25B market cap. All of these investors who aren't scooping up the trading book must the way wrong. That's great to know. This is the kind of post everybody I am sure would want to read, assumptions of market cap being possibly in the range of 5 to 25B. Great.
I did read them and honestly, Flipper, I tell you one thing. Anything could be, the trial is blinded so basically those speaking should not know (and if they do I believe they would not be allowed to talk) if the treatment is working or not. However I bet you realize that the growing fear is there, simply reflected in the stock price, and most people in the message board keep on refusing to see it. I mean, if investors would have thought that it was effective, you wouldn't have had a mere 10% pop when announced that PFS was reached and that (luckily) OS hasn't been reached yet. I mean, many in this MB are either blind, eccessively optimistic, or just so much smarter than the market that they deserve to be very rich. Statistically, how many have you known of the latter?
Moreover, I keep on focusing on finances, and I am worried as ever, because I see no partnerships with upfront milestone payments yet and I bet you all know that if that doesn't materialize within a couple of weeks, it means we will face in my opinion another very massive dilution. Like it or not, for many investors that will mean that EVEN IF (and I stress the IF) the drug is somehow effective, most likely they will never recoup their money. How cool is that?
Not that this gives us the hope we would like to hear at this time...
The problem is how the previous 5 months have done. Company needs money to fund operations and the only way I see for the stock price to improve in the very short term is the announcement of a partnership with some millions as an upfront (10-20M)...however, we are waiting for this for so many months now that can't help it but lost faith.
Since mid December, I can't help it but I stand on the negative side. Holidays? Flu? What's next? Come on...
I think you are getting it way wrong. Personally I don't want things too soon, I am fine with just getting the news in the range of the timeline they have stated in the PR, nothing more than that.