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Sunday, February 12, 2017 12:36:53 PM
Just to throw in some quick notes (free to take 'em or not), the selling price of the vaccine is a given estimate (at least a given estimate close range), you can't go in a model with X and then 5 times X.
Moreover you don't need to take into consideration net sales, as most models out there (which you need to pair if you want to make objective estimates) take into consideration sales and not net sales. So adding "stuff" (which is another variable you are not aware of right now) is simply wrong.
If you keep on writing numbers without discounting the chance of approval to me it simply means you probably have not done any stock modeling before. That is fine to me, but why do you keep on writing as if you did?
One final note. When a drug isn't approved or didn't show clear signs of efficacy in many multiple trials, in the vast majority of cases all other indications are worth zero or close to zero, untill they do. As far as the current market cap, I personally see the market tends to believe this is the case, too.
Don't get me wrong, I absolutely got nothing against you, and indeed I sometimes read your posts and a few others, but when it comes to modeling and sp predictions I believe I know my way. Have a nice day, cheers.
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