Blank check preferred stock?

Sorry Chris, my 15K share vote will be NO

I am not a fan of preferred shares, since they usually have voting rights well above a common shareholder.

Stop trying to print money and get the damn trials started already...GEEZ!!

A nice move up of 30 cents. Perhaps the karma has shifted in the right direction.

Let's not pop champagne bottles just yet--we'll need many more days like today to get some of us back on solid ground.

But at least it's heading in the right direction.

i will agree with you starting next Wednesday.

RayovacAAA:

I'm not "advertising" it, merely just stating it as a reason for why there continues to be downward pressure on this stock as we close out the year. This does seem to be a plausible reason, rather than this nefarious "cabal" that is driving it down.

The one thing that I will acknowledge is that after next Monday, 12/31, the stock price action starting January 2nd onward will not be affected by tax loss selling.

Let's hope that this alone will help to stop the downward spiral this has been on.

Settlement date is 3 days after the sale is transacted.

For tax purposes, as long as you sell by 12/31/18, that transaction counts towards the 2018 tax year, despite the fact that it actually will settle in 2019.

2 more days to go.....

I think we’ve got 2 more days of tax selling and margin calls, so this is going lower. Will it hold a dollar? I hope so. I also hope once the calendar flips to 2019, one of DM’s New Year’s resolutions will be to be more transparent. Trials need to be fully enrolled, commenced, and reported upon completion with data readouts that either support or refute their scientific hypothesis. Anything less and we will be in the pink sheets.

Yes, we've been using this excuse for the past 3 years.

I'd say this has more to do with tax selling, since just about everyone who has been with this stock for 3+ years is underwater.

The market is up 5%, and yet AVXL can't even squeak out a penny gain?!! We must be one of about 20 stocks that were lower today. Even Enron would have closed up today, had it not gone bankrupt years ago.

This one is going lower before 12/31/18.

I don't think we'll see a green day until January, IMHO. Today was the day for the tide (stock market) to lift all boats (stocks), but this one still couldn't float.

I'll buy more, but at a much lower price. I think it'll see $1 before it sees $2--JMHO.

I've got more dry powder to put to use, but I'll wait for it to fall some more.

I'd be okay with it falling to a buck (or lower). I might even take a page out of Basparks playbook and buy with "both fists" if this opportunity occurs.

I think the market is trying to wipe out some of the margin accounts that had probably gotten overextended. I think some of this sell off is margin-driven, as SH are being forced to liquidate positions to settle their accounts.

I'm okay with this price--in a perverse way, it gives even more incentive for DM to get his act together and try to right the ship. I just don't want him to make a lame excuse that the market conditions are what caused our predicament. We have been heading in the wrong direction from a SH perspective for quite some time. This market condition has only accelerated the pace of the decline in AVXL.

It's time to put your money where your mouth is. I might just look to increase my position from 11K to 20K during this turmoil. I'll probably wait for some more tax selling to drive it down ever further.

C'mon, $1....

It looks like to me the stock market's reaction has been just the opposite. Despite this being "good" news that they are projecting only 2 rate hikes in 2019, the flip side is what data is the FED seeing in the economy that has made them retrace their hawkish rate stance?

Perhaps the tariffs and trade wars, political instability throughout the world, and uncertainty about the impact all of this will have on the US economy is thought to be much worse than even a month ago. Thus the reason why we might be seeing such a negative reaction.

Of course, the decision to withdraw troops immediately from Syria just adds another dimension of uncertainty into the market.

And the beat goes on....

BIOChecker4:

Sure, kick a SH when he is down!

Factually, you are correct.

Thanks for the clarification.

It is a very painful fact that I am 11K long in this stock, unfortunately at a much higher SP than it currently is.

If you had read my message further, I am resigned/committed to seeing this through to its bitter or beautiful end. What's the point of getting out now when the downside is $1.81 per share? I've already lost a ton, what's another few bucks.

In response to your advice, I have thought about 2 years from now--3 years ago when I first joined the legion of AVXL shareholders. To date, that hasn't worked out too well.

Here is hoping for better times ahead--can't imagine they can get any worse. But then again not too many of us probably thought we'd be sub $2 and at a 52 week low. But here we are!

News flash: The only thing that has changed with Anavex is more positive data and results.

I think you forgot to mention that the SP has changed, which does matter to some on the board. We're at a 52 week low, not exactly the most bullish indicator.

The way I see it is that the worst case scenario is it falls another $1.81 to zero. Or, it actually starts to stabilize and appreciate from here. Downside risk is less than 2 dollars, whereas the upside can be ???

I'll stick around until the bitter end, or the wonderful beginning.

No doubt that owning this stock has been quite painful these past few years.

I'm not sure if that metric would be as well received as stabilizing or slowing the rate of decline in AZ & PDD patients. I think you might argue that better sleep would go a long ways towards stabilizing the rate of decline, based upon research you have already shared with the board.

I'm hoping we get more than just better sleep out of these trials, but at least that would be something positive.

Ambiguous would therefore mean failure.

I guess we better have results that leave no doubt about the outcome. It's exciting and terrifying at the same time.

The AXON board is pretty inactive. I think many investors have just written them off as being on borrowed time. Their latest stock offering suggests they are dangerously close to being bankrupt--it feels like a last gasp.

I just don't want to see this happen here. I agree with Jonjones in that Missling really has to start delivering. The trials need to be fully enrolled and dosing ASAP. There is no more room for BS and delays.

Thank you for the clarification. What I don't want to see happen here, and what has happened over at AXON, are blatant financial shenanigans.

Last week, AXON was in the $1.75 range, but suspended a trial that they knew most likely was going to fail. The stock sank to $1.20, and then continued to decline towards $1 a few days later. After hours, they released some in-licensing BS PR, which temporarily propped up the SP to $1.20, only to then announce 30 minutes later that they were doing a stock offering to raise $30M at $1 per share. Needless to say, the stock immediately sank back to $1.

Today, Jeffries upgrades them, and the stock pops $.15 cents to $1.15, after all the underwriters got their $1 shares.

Company Officers (should) go to prison for this type of crap.

Jonjones:

I know this is an extremely frustrating time to be a SH. I'm even in the mindset that this stock is at best a dormant investment, with the possibility of it even being dead if the trials results are ambiguous or just plain unsuccessful.

I know you went to the SH meeting last year and gave a wonderful summary of what was discussed. I hope you are planning to do the same this year. We'll know a lot more by then, and we can go there and either pat DM on the back or ask him some tough questions.

I do plan on going this year. If I cannot ask questions during a quarterly conference call, then I sure as hell will ask them at the annual meeting. He can run, but he can't hide.

I believe one of the covenants of the Cantor ATM was that the minimum share price had to be at least $3? If so, Missling is unable to use the ATM now as the price is well below that minimum.

The other options for raising funds that you mention are plausible, with the exception of revenue from selling the drug. I think that is still 12-18 months out.

Kentucky:

You summarize well the predicament of many long term investors on this board. Hopefully you are correct that we are overdue for some kind of recovery. As you state, I have been a SH since July 2015. With a few blips along the way, the trajectory has been mostly downward.

I think we have a few more bumpy weeks to go, but hopefully 2019 will be the beginning of good things for the company.

Fingers crossed!

Here is another trick from the BABY BIO playbook. Announce something positive after hours, and then conveniently soon thereafter announce that you are doing another stock offering.

Check out AXON (yes, I also own that one, although thankfully I bought in at $2.25, which is still a ways up from where it closed today).

You just shake your head sometimes at these financial shenanigans. No wonder it takes stones to be in baby biotech.

Missling can always pull out one of the classic financial bag of tricks of a faltering SP and do the old reverse split (again--he did it 3 years ago) to artificially prop up the share price temporarily.

PRANA Biotech did that a few years back. It's a temporary shot in the arm, but the stock price usually retreats over time. SH get hosed, because they wind up with half (or less) of their outstanding shares.

A poster stated earlier that tax loss selling is over. I disagree. We still have 2 more weeks left in 2018.

This is most likely going lower.

I'm still going to hang in there, just in case we actually catch lightning in a bottle here. At this point, this is nothing more than a lottery ticket. If it were a "slam dunk" that others on the board state, the SP would not be languishing in the low 2s.

BTW, I do agree with what others stated about yesterday's conference call. Clocking in at 20 minutes, it was one of DM better performances. The truth be told, he had set the bar pretty low based upon previous calls.

Here is hoping for a better 2019. 2018 can't end soon enough.

I've been on board for 3.5 years. At this point, I've considered these holdings a "lost cause."

I'm not selling 1 share of my 11K. I'm prepared to go down with the Titanic. No life boat for me to get on.

The water is getting really cold...

Jonjones325:

Please stop asking questions that make sense. Wait until 4:30, when TGD will astound and enlighten us shareholders as to the master plan for the company.

Be prepared to hear absolutely nothing of consequence. Nearly 75 % of the AZ and 100% of the PD sites are up and running?

HOW MANY PATIENTS ARE ENROLLED IN THE TRIALS TO DATE, DR. MISSLING?!!!!

I'll give him credit where it is due--he can take useless information and spin it to appear as if it's quite meaningful. The only problem is noone is buying his BS.

The next news event will be Friday at 4:30 pm (after the market closes). We'll get to see how many more cheap options Missling and the other officers of the company grant themselves for hitting these "milestones."

The joke is on us, and I've stopped laughing several quarters ago.

I want to believe as much as the next person here, but reality tells me otherwise.

Too much speculation, and not enough action these past 3 years.

Very sad indeed. I’m down quite a bit of money, but I’m just as upset with how poorly this company is being managed. They just come across as so detached from all of its stakeholders.

I am feeling the way JonJones seems to be implying—somewhat betrayed by DM.

There is no shortage of speculation on this board, most of which has turned out to be nothing but hot air over the past 3 years.

Say this about the doctor--he has been consistent. That is, consistent in over-promising and under-delivering on stated milestones.

Why should we believe anything will be different this time?

BTW, if DM (or Sondra) states on this upcoming Conference call that they still have enough money to do these trials (without further dilution), be very wary. They've been saying they have enough money for the next 2 years for the past 6 months. With these delays, they probably realistically only have 18 months left.

As per DM in August: "We look forward to updating you over the next few months on the status of our 3 trials." Has he really done a good job of updating us about anything since then?

What a disappointment this has all been. Is that about to change? Who knows, but when there are possible lives in the balance, it just seems the company has been too complacent. My heart goes out to these families who are possibly counting on AVXL to be their final hope. The line that boiled my blood recently was regarding Rett (paraphrasing: we're going to wait until after the holidays to begin this trial as things tend to slow down this time of year). If things moved any more slowly with this company, we'd be moving at a glacial pace.

IMHO.

Assuming they have 3 patients enrolled, they'll spin it to say that enrollment has increased 200% since the first patient enrollment.

TGD knows how to massage the "day-tuh".

What will we hear at the next conference call??

Perhaps that we've enrolled our 2nd patient, and that we're only 448 patients away from beginning a trial.

....not a smart way to run a company

This has become more evident with the declining/stagnant share price.

Xena:

Here is an article I found on the ALZ vaccination approach:

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/323734.php

ALZ Vaccination?

I heard a brief news story on Fox News this morning about the testing of a potential Alzheimers Vaccination that could prove effective on 50% of the population. The study is happening down in Texas, but I have not seen any article yet about this.

Did anyone else hear about this? This would be great news if true.

Good point, Reyeton. Thank you for putting this all in its proper perspective.

Let's hope we are close to rock bottom, and that things start to brighten from here.

Call it whatever you want, whether it's manipulation or not, still does not lessen the reality that this stock performance is absolutely dreadful.

What the future holds is anyone's guess, but right now most of us are taking it on the chin.

In this market condition, I don't think it will matter much what AVXL announces--at best, this stock is going nowhere. At worst, well, you don't need me to tell you that scenario.

I am calculating it from my cost basis, but yes, it's probably even worse if you are using those price points.

Nonetheless, the point is that it has been a dreadful 3 years being a shareholder, no matter how anyone spins it.

Anavex has been in a correction mode for the past 3 years.

Down 50%.

Market rises--Anavex falls
Market falls--Anavex really falls

I think we've hit the iceberg.

I sense there will be another options grant forthcoming to all directors and executive members. Last year it was a $2.30 grant, and this year will probably be even lower. AS obscene as that was last year, I get the sense DM is setting us up for another fleecing.

DM has been terrible at maintaining and/or creating shareholder value. Not only that, many institutional investors won't touch stocks below $10, no less $5. I really do wonder what goes on in his mind.

This stock has been one big turkey gizzard these past 3 years. I'm just glad that I never recommended any of my friends and family into buying this crud, because I'm sure they would have made me "disappear" by now.

This one is starting to look a lot like PRAN, another one of my turkeys that had a GREAT SCIENTIST in ALZ (Rudy Tanzi) standing behind the science and company. Maybe Rudy Tanzi is to PRAN what Harold Hampel is to AVXL?

Let's hope not.

Perhaps he said cash on hand for 2 years at the Cantor Conference, but he has been saying this for nearly 6 months, so I think we have to adjust that number more towards 1.5 years at this point.

All the more reason to get the ball rolling. Time is money--especially for a small biotech such as this that seems to take twice as long to accomplish stated milestones.

Falconer:

The one assumption you have regarding 2023 that you might want to amend is that AVXL will pay dividends. Even if this all plays out perfectly, and A2-73 ultimately gets approval for the 3 indications, the likelihood of this being a dividend paying stock in the next 5 years is low. 10 years down the road perhaps, but not likely in the time horizon you have mentioned.

The money to be made in the 3-5 year time frame will most likely solely be from the stock price appreciation. Of course, you'd have to sell some of your holdings to realize this gain--if it indeed ever happens.

Many biotech companies choose to reinvest their earnings, with the understanding the the internal rate of return (IRR) on capital investment will far outweigh what paying the money to shareholders will generate. Agree or disagree, biotechs are not the best place to be looking for dividend yield.

Capital appreciation yes, dividend yield no.

Don't forget the candlestick, double-bottom, head & shoulders, 50, 100, & 200 DMAs.

Yes, TA and having monkeys throw darts have about the same predictive ability.

Jonjones325:

I have been thinking these very same thoughts the past few months.

What happened to the expedited/accelerated approval process based upon precision medicine? That was a BIG focus on the board about a year ago. Wait until the FDA issues new guidelines regarding the streamlining of trials (November 2017). They'll want to make AVXL the "poster child" of this new paradigm.

It does seem like most of the "intellectual" speculation on this board has not materialized to date.

I think there will be a lot of tax loss selling the next 6 weeks, which will likely cause this to test its all time lows since enlisting on the NASDAQ. With the time for readouts well into the future, there is no plausible near-term catalyst. Maybe not dead money, but certainly it is dormant for the time being.

Doc:

I appreciate the thorough explanation of the trial process. It does seem very involved, time-consuming, and most likely expensive (probably more so than DM has led us to believe).

Based upon your projections for a read-out that may well go into 2020, why has Dr. Missling been previously stating that there would be read-outs in 2019?

I have learned more from your one reply to my post than anything that has been PR'd by DM in 2018.

Any chance you would consider becoming a CEO of a small-cap CNS company that is currently enrolling patients for 3 trials? Ha!

Thanks again for posting your response. Your posts are always informative.

pc:

You need to start all 450 patients within a specified time frame (60 day time period?), otherwise you’ll be waiting a longee time to get meaningful data/results from the same time period. The duration of a trial is the one variable that is easier to manage, provided you have enough ready & willing patients that match the trial’s criteria.