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We are up 250% since just before the data / event, which was very positive. Given the market for the drug, and how low the SP was, 250% sounds pretty tame. Also consider that there was not the normal run-up to the results because you had both the Greek Crisis peaking as well as the China Stock market crash. Neither of those negatives are in the news now. Check the VIX chart and I bet you see that clearly.
That means... we already relaxed any gains that are arguable as undeserved. This isn't TPIV. It just isn't. They have a more complicated situation, with more uncertainty in their future. We have a fairly predictable, positive, medium and possibly short term future. If things start to look like TPIV tomorrow, then the illusion could be a problem. But as soon as things stabilize, and it becomes clear that the bleeding stopped, then there will be a good bounce. Tomorrow or Tuesday.
As for tomorrow. Someone was adamant that the charts showed great strength at $1.20. They sounded pretty credible. That might be all you get for a dip. And for that dip... the risk of being left in the cold is probably not worth it.
Mini Mental State Examination. Got it. But that is for people. What is the equivalent test for mice... The Mini Mouse Mental State Examination? Just curious.
I got the oatmeal reference and I understand why someone would be a little concerned that the mini cognition (or whatever they call it) test results were not given. What was said, as I recall, was that those results were "In Line with" the EEG data. So why not give that data?
Realize that there were a lot of longs here even before these early results. Long because of their DD into what will likely work for AD and long because they know just how huge this could be for such a small cap stock. These long-timers were elated with the early efficacy reports, period. There are many possible reasons why the mini-cog test results may not have been posted. Admittedly, most likely, is that they were not quite as good results as the EEG tests, and the company wants more data accumulated to reduce the noise and be more certain of the results. So does this mean that 250% SP increase since the data is overblown? I don't think so. They were so undervalued to begin with, that I don't think the SP is overblown. Overblown only if you assume the worst with the data that has not yet been revealed.
And there is the possibility that they want to wait for a big conference to unvail the mini-cog (or whatever it is called) data.
You sound very knowledgeable and credible. With most biotechs that I have owned I have fantasized about early approval from the FDA, and so have most longs. Happens very rarely, so not right to think the odds are great, I would agree.
But I am not sure I would agree that this is not the type of indication where it could happen. There is a great need. There is an agreed vaccuum of effective therapies available. It is a horrible disease... and maybe the recent policy or attitude changes by the FDA have been loudly broadcast because there is both recent focus on the enormous future costs of Alzheimer's and simultaneously a concern that companies might give up risking big $ in development with such a high failure rate for Alzheimer's drugs.
I think this indication is absolutely a candidate for early marketing approvals. Not sure an open label phase 2A could qualify, but maybe a properly designed phase 2B.
And I don't think that extending phase 2AB necessarily delays the start of phase 2BA. The extension of phase 2AB might just add more long term safety and efficacy data, assisting with an early approval based primarily on phase 2B data.
Doodie noted! I mean duly noted...
Sorry to hear that Ziggy. I had an Uncle go to Alzheimers about two months ago. He had visited about 9 years ago, and during a normal conversation lashed out vishously at me. Turned out he was battling early Alzheimer's but the family hadn't told anybody. Actually they termed it Sundowner's syndrome, which is apprently more severe in the evening.
His family let me know he was ill because they didn't want me to take the aggression personally. Understanding that is important. Very glad they told me.
Similar aggression can be a side effect of the general purpose miracle steroid prednisone.
They sell it for studies on animals. Probably has to be some kind of certified study, but I don't know for certain. Not sure how hard to fake out the forms. Maybe you could tell them you want to test it on your pet mouse, Algernon. But I think it's pretty expensive. However, if you are resourcefull you might find a deal somewhere.
"DR Irfan Lilani discussing History of AD from the first person diagnosed to today."
What a great speaker! Very useful for me. I haven't been in this space very long, and he goes into pretty good depth while staying accessible.
My personal take... maybe...
A-273 a day keeps the Alzheimer's away!
Never to early to start!
I try to keep in mind
1) I somehow always lose when I try to flip to gain more shares. Then I elevate risk in the future to start to catch up, and lose still more shares. It is a downward spiral. Been there more than once.
2) It is painful to miss out on a dip that foreshadowed itself, but it is far more painful to lose shares betting on a dip that reverses unexpectedly. And for me, they always do if I take that bet.
Thank you nob118. Valuable human perspective + science and business perspective as a bonus.
Good thing about that article being old is that the Phase 2 trial for Anavex 2-73 was likely designed with every detail of those FDA policy changes taken into account.
Given the recent gains this isn't a big deal. Three days flat or a little down fits in nicely, matching a previous response to big gains. Many think much longer consolidation would be healthy. Not sure.
I do think that if this rebounds Monday, then there could be another extended surge to follow. The frightened ones will come out of their hiding places. Much easier to do with some kind of news, but may not need news. Maybe just needed the assurance that recent gains are sustainable, that they were not a spike. That this is not TPIV.
I think that has been demonstrated.
I guess it does show a strong base. But support is above that right now. That was the absolute low for the whole day.
So people put in low bids in case someone screws up during a lapse of bids. At low volume it makes sense to put a huge "safety net" bid at some insanely low price... just in case someone types the wrong number of zeros. What is the significance of that?
Yesterday there was a glitch in the Yahoo Finance chart for AVXL. They showed a 100 minute stretch of 0 trades, resulting in a straight line, sloped upward. Then a single trade of 2.5 Million shares. Freaked me out. I thought it was real, but decided not to say anything.
Later realized it was a glitch, but Yahoo kept posting it past the close.
Talk to Raptor about Face 2. I think it ends when he gets his shares back... ie never.
I don't think they need a R/S, but would it be such a bad thing? I have read examples where the stock took off afterwards, in this particular situation.
The bad situation would be if the stock were slumping, with no catalysts coming, and the company needed to do it to stay listed. Here it is the opposite. You have institutions that want to buy, but can't. Not that I want the institutions to have a larger percentage at this point. But I want them to compete for shares along with the retailers, and right now their hands are tied.
The recent Anavex US patent grant that George posted about yesterday was for Anavex 2-73 + some additives that enhance it as a treatment for neuropathy and it said... possibly as an anti-cancer agent.
Sorry to be so sloppy and not look it up. Just wanted do mention that peripheral neuropathy is a common symptom for diabetes. There is a substantial market for something that would help with that.
Responding to a concern posted earlier. Can't find it now. Trying to digest some initially disturbing info, that after careful examination is not so distrubing.
I would certainly re-write my last few lines if I had the option. Would make them more positive. Ran out of time, editing it while posted.
If you can talk a moderator into deleting it, I will re-write it a little, and it will be more positive. I will try to make it harder to misconstrue.
I only know for TD Ameritrade:
From the home page, on the top row of tabs, select the 3rd from the right, Research & Ideas.
That opens a drop down menu.
5 down on that drop down menu is "Alerts"
How much collusion likely between the institutions? Maybe this float is too small. Hang onto your dmn shares! This is going to many $$$$$/share in the near future! Do not let them steal your shares! Do not try to flip! Do not play options! Do not do any of the other things people have warned against!
Where is that guy that someone hired to ride his bike back and forth on ihub with the sign pumping AVXL? We need him back!
You haven't been playing in the options have you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Many Institutions Chomping at the Bit!
Data from the latest S1, March 5, 2015 (before the preliminary P1 results and resulting frenzy): Also Canopaddler's earlier post #546188...
8 of 11 institutional investors were already maxed out, having purchased the absolute maximum shares allowed due to "penny stock" restrictions by the SEC for stocks priced under $5. I wonder what the list looks like today? And I wonder how many of these institutions will buy more shares the moment it becomes legal for them to do so?
Unclear to me if they literally can't own more than 5%, or just have to jump through a large number of hoops constantly if they own a larger percentage.
Here is a link to the "Penny Stock" restrictions: http://www.sec.gov/answers/penny.htm
Auriga Global 4.99%
Auriga Investors-Montserrat 4.99%
Hudson Bay Master Fund 4.99%
DAFNA LifeScience LP 4.99%
DAFNA LifeScience Market Neutral 2.53%
DAFNA LifeScience Select L.P. 4.99%
Joann Mostovoy 4.99%
Sabby Healthcare 4.99%
Sabby Volatility Warrant Master Fund 4.99%
Sphera Global Healthcare Master Fund 9.99%
HFR HE Sphera Global Healthcare Master Trust 1.95%
"Jackass did not even factor in latest filing that shows increase in outstanding, indicating many warrants already exercised."
That is not ok. That is worth complaining about. Not worth getting excited about, nor spending a lot of time on, but worth putting on official record as a complaint.
On top of that there are likely a large number or warrants sold since the last filing, right? So this author knows his numbers are likely way off at this point. He can get away with ignoring the unnofficial/unposted change in share count, but why let him get away with ignoring the official share count?
Did you see an author? The ones without authors are always the slimiest.
"Not good to use stops in Bio.The MM's can see the stops and will try to knock em out."
Is that true if your account is not marginable? I think that what is inside an IRA is totally invisible.
I think that what you have in a margin account is completely visible, including whether you are leveraged, and your stops. Both vulnurabilities with the stops being instant trips, and the margin being a delayed trip with possible instant results if the person panicks. On top of that, I think they can use your $ in the account for shorting, though the details of that I am not clear on. Further, I think your position (bid or ask) has your name posted on it in a margin account. Not positive about that, but my broker answered yes when I asked that question.
Not sure about a regular account without margin. My broker wasn't sure or wouldn't tell me. But it seems unlikely they can see your details in a regular non-margin account. Just hard to move quickly.
"may i remind to you that this share was for more than a year above 4 and 5 $, so why it did not qualify for nasdaq at that time?"
The reply was that they may not have wanted to be listed yet. Maybe. Another possibility is that there were other criterion for uplist that they did not meet. There is market cap and trade volume, ... and a few other criterion. It's not just $/share.
I wonder whether they will uplist at the first opportunity / the first tier, or wait for the top tier. There is a delay after application for processing and approval, and if they are moving up quickly in qualifying stats then it might be faster to get to the top tier by skipping the bottom 2 tiers. Or not.
Raptors, ... never mind. You told us you had stops in. Because you can't sit on your eggs all day long. And some coyote nabbed your eggs while you were at work. Dannng! Do you have all available message alerts set up? Maybe as good as you can do without risking the coyotes.
If you keep listening, at 10:30 he says that he is not saying that the company is not a good investment. He thinks it probably as great potential.
This kind of trader does not look very carefully at a given company. They know that statistically they can make money by playing each stock for typical behavior. They know the will lose on some, but statistically win. So they don't put a large amount of money on each stock. This is one of the cases where he is going to lose, likely even in the short run, because he is not sufficienty familiar with the stock.
He made $650 yesterday flipping the stock. I made $15K the prior 2 days just sitting on my stock, and made another $1,000 yesterday.
George, Thanks for the links to that recent US Patent that was granted. Nice to see that Avanex is the Assignee so all is well.
Trying to figure out if this drug combo / these drug combos have a name. It's not Anavex Plus. I don't think it's any of the familiar drug names that we have heard for Anavex.
It's Anavex 2-73 + some other adds.
Most important, Anavex owns this, provided they pony up the $48 due by mid October. I'm betting they dig up that cash.
So Anavex has 2 US patents then, correct? Anavex 3-71, and whatever this is.
These drug patents are so hard read... at least for me. The list of documents associated with this one patent is sooo long. I looked back at the original application at the bottom of the list, and it was a different application number than the application number listed at the end.
"Funny. That's the second board I know of that's blamed avxl for their stocks drop in share price."
Were a freakin black hole for $. I did the math. 15%/day till mid December is $100T . We will be able to pay off the national debts for Greece, Portugal, Italy, and the US!
You are a gifted researcher WWayne. Very useful for being statistically successfull picking high yield long bets.
53% in two days followed by a "correction" of +3% ! Wow!
Re. Ultrasonic Brain Cleaners.
It works on dentures. Should work on brains!
35 years ago or so, I was looking through very old books (very old at that time) in the physics library in the basement of Le Conte Hall at UC Berkeley. I came across an article on early work in ultrasonics. A researcher had generated ultrasound using a long quarts rod, immersed in a flask of water with polywogs in it. After the test he examined the polywogs under a microscope. He said that literally every cell membrane was ruptured. Every polywog had become polywog soup inside of its outer skin.
When they design ultrasonic imaging devices these days, of course they use much less power, but still they have to do tons of studies on possible reflections that could result in standing wave areas of strong re-inforcement (anti-nodes) that could locally raise levels enough to rupture cells. It is scary stuff. Always job openings for temporary workers to test and sign off on these wave interference studies.
Inside of a skull there are a lot of reflections possible, many focusing at the center of the brain, ie near the pineal gland. That area is probably pretty important. And these guys probably use substantially higher power levels that what is used for imaging.
Maybe a great device / procedure, but not without some major cautions and possibly long drawn out qualifications. Besides, it isn't MOST LUCRATIVE... oh I mean ANAVEX 2-73!
"I cut my teeth on triple zero stinky pinkys. This action today was tame."
Re Dr. Evil 11623
(triple zero stinky pinky! That is great!)
What's pink and stinky and green-all-over?
AVXL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Maybe Neil was not quite the right spirit.
This is a little closer.
"Nevertheless, some of those shares being dumped this morning were bought by people or organizations that will hold them long-term, thereby reducing the real float and making sharp rises all the more likely in the future."
In the black again, the presence of a large number of shorts hanging over our heads seems unlikely. But a half hour ago, I would have believed it. And if their are a lot of shorts still holding out, the smaller float would make a short squeeze just that much more radical!
I think somebody already said that a couple days ago... but worth repeating.
Into the Black!
Maybe I am starting to understand the need for a shakedowns, such as the one we just finished. The institutional buyers are more conservative. Needing a stronger footing to buy, but then providing a stronger footing once they are in.
By shaking the tree, the market makers reduce future volatility, allowing less solid retail holders to be replaced with more solid institutional holders, which in the end increases the height to which the tower can be built and still be sturdy.
Once the base gets stronger, even bigger dogs will be willing to join the structure... so it is somewhat of a positive feedback.
You don't want a weak foundation for a skyscraper.
There aren't any broad spectrum cancer prevention drugs as far as I know. If this is Alzheimer's prevention after very early diagnosis, then that is as good as a cure and more lucrative, in the long run.
Yeah, understood the Buffet story. Just wrote it down wrong, realized that and corrected it too late, apparently after you read it.
The VAP app that I am thinking about would be only 1 puff per day or maybe less. And it's not THC All-4. It's something in wide use, but futile use.
I think a pack of cigarrettes is something like 400 puffs a day, so the fact that the VAP user base have not all keeled over yet is pretty good safety data for 1 puff every day or so.
Recent posts about the benefits of a shrinking float have me less inclined to re-assure weak hands when it is likely the institutions doing much of the buying and little of the selling... as you say. Am I slipping to the dark side?