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Gunfrey, I like it. eom
Anybody notice the lack of early-market downward manipulation? This is a different pattern for the desperate shorts. They may have run out of rope!
I.Q.... I see things very much the same as you with regard to today's events and their ramifications. What I have never fully understood is the notion that Nokia will have to pay a higher rate with each ensuing loss in the courts. Why can't they just go the distance and, when they ultimately have lost, just say "Okay now we'll pay the same as Samsung"? I know you're not a lawyer, but perhaps someone on the board can answer that.
I_Q... A belated thanks for your work today. I have to say that, although I am not a lawyer, I do have a masters degree in engineering, 45 years experience in the market and handled many more legal actions than I could ever hope for. IDCC did kick butt today and it seems the panel had done their homework and had all the right questions. I believe today's hearing was one of those "points of clarity" that UB has repeatedly referred. It's all good.
Hard to believe someone knows something the board doesn't. LOL
H48.....Not going there, at this time. eom.
Fish...."trying yet again to shake shares loose from hard-working investors". It never ends. It's what today's successful "investors" do. Shameful.
sloane....agreed, but they still have millions of shares to go (that is, if they didn't cover via those options last Friday.)
postyle...This type of trading has become almost too predictable, not just for IDCC but many, many small/mid cap stocks. It's unfortunate so many retail investors get stopped out of their positions.
Absolutely right. The shorts have really had no opportunity to stop the upward move of the stock until today. Because of the uncertainty surrounding the orals and no settlement yet, they are pushing extra hard to separate "scaredy-cats" from their shares.
Anyone. Time of oral arguments today? Eom.
Wow. You are a genius. eom
Badger......I am out for the rest of the day. Maybe we can get into it later. Thanks, hock.
FISH...In my opinion---absolutely!!!! Except for the fact that the SEC is a joke. Don't ever count on them for anything. I have learned this, in spades, over the years.
Triangle... I may be misreading your post. I am suggesting that the current shorts could have "handed over" their short position to another entity in a way that the current shorts are now out of their position and a new entity is now short the same amount of shares.
AMC...I never said it was bullish. eom.
badger.....I respectfully disagree. You are depicting the expected behavior of normal investors (shorts in this case) in a "normal" company over a long period of time. I submit that this is not the case with IDCC. Many of us "Graham and Dodd" type of analysts have been shaking our collective heads, for a long time, at the gulf between IDCC's intrinsic value and the value the marketplace puts on it. I believe that there would have to be unity of thought and intention over time to make such an -in-your-face bet. JMO
With all the theories about the nature and purpose of massive call trades last Friday, very few if any, (including myself) have posited any theories about how the shorts may have employed these trades for the purpose of mitigating the sorry state they have put themselves in. It has become abundantly clear to them by now that they are shoveling excrement against the tide. So, I am now more inclined to think that these trades somehow involved them. It is possible that they may have found other like-minded miscreants who are willing to take on this over-sized short position at this level.
While it is impossible to tell, because shorts are shielded from the light of day, the long-standing short position, I think most would agree, has an average basis around the low $20's. Due to some serious miscalculations on their part, they are now in serious trouble and know that there is no way to cover their position legitimately. If they were able to convince others to "take over' their position, options may be a way to do it.
NJ......A plausible explanation but, still, whoever sold that many calls will have to produce a pant-load of shares within 3 days of execution. As vtem suggested, it could be that the call writers were longs with large positions they wish to trim. As you say, we may be able to put together a more cogent explanation when we see the adjusted OI tomorrow. Whatever the case, a new day has dawned.
garycoal.....As much as I would like to believe that someone is taking a very large position by purchasing all those ITM calls, like you, I can't get by that question. What is the motivation of the other side of those trades. I haven't yet seen any post on this board or IV that satisfactorily answers that question.
Ellis... That kinda sums up my thoughts too: "will it hurt or feel good"?!
Poststyle....Thanks for that info on dividend capture. It makes a lot of sense when one is dealing with a large cap stock. I.e. the options employed for the dividend capture do not dwarf the open interest of any particular strike price. In the case of IDCC, I am at a loss as to who would be on the other side of these disproportionate option trades. What is in it for those people. That's what makes me think these trades are not arms-length, but indeed pre-arranged by like-minded entities. JMO.
Badger... Thanks. I have very similar views of this development. I believe I can safely say that these transaction were not arms-length trades effected by disinterested, unaffiliated entities. I hope you are right that some light will eventually be shed on this. Whatever the case, something smells.
OD and JS..... Susquehanna has long been known to cater to the shorts.
Please help re: 58,000 calls traded. There has been some discussion about these DITM trades. I have read many posts on the subject but haven't seen any explanation that makes total sense. I have been involved in the markets for over 40 years (20 as a broker) and I can't get a handle on what is going on with those trades. Of course, my biggest fear is that the shorts may have figured out a way to extricate themselves from extinction. I hope this is not the case.
Any thoughts would be appreciated and I apologize in advance if a consensus has been reached on the logic of these trades and I just missed it.
TIA
NJ... I see. Thank you. eom.
Nessco and Dodd...... Are you both saying you are short??? I think you have the wrong terminology and therefore missed the point of my post. Think about it.
IMO....If people would realize that stop-loss orders are no longer effective because of current manipulation techniques, it would make it much tougher on those trying to cover. Please don't use stop-loss orders. JMO.
Dmiller.... I am not sure if I have ever agreed more with any post in the history of this board. You are 100% correct. If the SEC ever investigated anything to do with IDCC, be it trading or other issues, I guarantee you it you it will have been instigated by those who, for whatever reason, do NOT want the share price to go up. There are many other, and big, fish to fry, were they to be an effective organization.
IMO....Or possibly a short establishing his worst case for covering 700k Shares. I'd love to know the thinking behind taking the other side of that trade.
Trading is very thin. Shorts will have to ratchet up price a bit to find more shares, IMO.
DR...Thanks for that piece. Apparently not much of a question as to IDCC's prominence in LTE. The only question in some minds is IDCC's ability to monetize their inventions. I believe 2011 will bring the answer to that question. (in spades) IMO.
Dndodd... Point well-taken. eom.
dndodd....and the only reason they are not is becuase of the ITC decision in favor of Nokia (which is about to be overcome, IMHO
I respectfully disagree with NJ's characterization of why the stock is trading at about one-half of its actual value. The stock is where it is because of the huge short position and the decade long manipulation of the share price. The motivation of these manipulators is a matter of speculation. I have no doubt about this.
IMO
WW09 and NJ.....Actually the bigger problem with that strategy is that one is defeating the purpose of "scaling" out of a long-term, successful position. The reason for scaling out is to reduce your risk as your (presumably) large position becomes a larger and larger percentage of your assets. It is most prudent to keep as much of your position as makes sense given your personal aversion to risk.
In December, 1999. I sold 25% of my IDCC at $65.25. (Cost basis in $3-4 range). I vacillated between wishing I sold more and regretting what I did sell. If I had taken the route NJ is suggesting, I would have bought it all back at $50+ and then watched it go back to $5.00. If one is fortunate enough to be right on a major commitment to an investment, one has to be prudent and not look back. This is how wealth is created.
IMO.
Best to all.
Thanks, OD. eom.
NJ...I was unable to open link. Do you know if Wilan's is a renewal of an existing license? If so, was it to expire on 12/31? TIA
loop.....Well put. Stop loss orders are not effective. It is a no-brainer for shorts, who are desperately trying to cover, to move the stock down in order to buy up these cheaper shares. One can count on it. If you put a stop loss in anywhere near yesterday's closing px, you can say goodbye to those shares. Please don't make it easy for them.
dclarke...Yeah. The dividend was his stated reason, but I don't buy it. Also, I doubt he has to worry about the SEC, it's the Justice Department he needs to fear.
My thoughts on the Cramer bit:
He exhibits slightly more knowledge of IDCC touting the stock than he has the several times that he has dissed the stock over the years. Dividend, 17K+ patents, 50% of the 3G market, blah, blah. A 4th grader could have gleaned that information in 10 minutes. It is sad that he personifies what our markets have come to and he sends a very discouraging message: there is a lot of money to be made either on inside info or the manipulation of stock prices for short term gains. Regrettably, he is right to not spend virtually any time on "research" or "due diligence". When 70% of all equity positions are held for 11 seconds or less, what's the use?
I feel very confident that he has gotten wind of a Nokia settlement, a potential bid for the company or simply has figured out that the shorts are "out of bullets" (in trading lingo, this means that they have maxed out their ability to manipulate the stock). If either of the first two happens within a week, he may be paid a visit by the Feds. To me, and I'm sure others on this board, the irony would be mind-blowing if having a hand in propelling IDCC to its real value turned out to be his demise .(this is only a fantasy, not a prediction)
Bottom line is that this is all good for us long-term IDCC investors. I don't like the way it is happening, but I'll take it.
OT (sorta)...For those who have followed the travails of Overstock and their battle against NSS, here is an interesting turn of events.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Overstock-Adding-Racketeering-prnews-361017108.html?x=0&.v=1