full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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OGC.to/OCANF.pk dipping after disappointing earnings.
Have they released (or estimated release date of) updated resource estimates?
Is this looking like a SELL here?
Seasonal Gold runup (India wedding season) may also end soon.
Kmart and Walmart lose...
Bob(Mart)Wins ... bigtime!!!
Thanks, my big happy SpongeBob!!!
OGC.to report was very interesting. I didn't realize (and was disappointed to learn) that their total gold production in Q1-Q3 2010 was down 10% from 2009. Wet conditions at Reefton increased cash costs along with weaker US dollar vs. Kiwi dollars used operationally in NZ.
I guess the biggest news for the quarter was getting Didipio financing in place, allowing them to capture the value of prior investments in Didipio.
The PR comments by management seemed pretty conservative. Nothing earthshaking, but these guys are pretty "mature" (old, like me).
My assumption is that results from the drilling campaigns in NZ (McRaes and Reefton) should provide (and need to provide) a substantial increase in proven reserves and mine life.
GLTA,
Steve
SSN ... will probably move when we get reports on production from its newest well (Earl #1-13H), which is currently being fracture stimulated. What sort of production (___boe) should we expect?
News from a week ago said they are just about ready to get crackin and start frackin...
Only remaining question is... will the well produce enough to take Samson higher (or give it the proverbial haircut)?
7:30p ET October 18, 2010 (Business Wire)
Samson Oil & Gas Limited (ASX: SSN) (NYSE AMEX: SSN) advises that the Earl #1-13H reached a total depth of 17,342 feet (measured depth) early on October 18th having drilled a 5,742 foot lateral out of the seven-inch casing shoe which had previously been set at 11,600 feet (measured depth). The horizontal section was drilled whilst observing the customary oil and gas shows.
The well will be conditioned in preparation for running a four-inch liner which will be configured to fracture stimulate 20 stages. Of course this means the well will produce something; we just have to wait for the flow rate to be established (watching and waiting now for post-frackin news).
Unloaded my ALLRF.pk (Allana Potash) on the recent runup (too dead for too long, so glad to be out; eventually it goes much higher perhaps, but it's on again off again for too long already).
Added CFPUF.pk (Canfor Pulp) for the big dividend and price strength.
My thoughts on TARM/TRGD:
First, TARM has talked about their mill being able to mill hundreds of tons per day, but they have been unable to produce concentrate at a steady rate. Their plan to contract out mill operations should help in the longer term, but the stock value will depend on how much they give the operator, how long it will take to get mill operations stabilized and efficient, and how much profit TARM gets from their operations.
Second, CEO Biscan may eventually try to strike some deal(s) to try to take advantage of high commodity prices.
Third, should know what's what by yearend. If not, let's all just drive to Denver and organize a small lynching party just to see if we can get some honest answers from management.
Almost all commodities down today, but COPPER is getting hit especially hard, down >2.1%
... taking TGB down with it, now -3.5%
Don't mean to be less than overly optimistic, but...
there is some reasonable argument to be made that GORO may be close to their fair value now ...
The research report (link below) from mid-August calculated fair value at $19.40/share.
That said, gold and silver have gone up in value since the report, so it's reasonable to expect a little more upside for GORO from the present price.
http://www.goldresourcecorp.com/content/GORO%20Update%20-%202010-08.pdf
CFX-UN.to/CFPUF.pk/Canfor ... good earnings announced last nite. Down 2% ????
Was something negative brought out in the conf call this AM?
Wade, sounds like your technical epiphany happened so late at nite, I'd be afraid to follow you blindly on the road to Buffet-dom. Usually decisions like that (fully invested and leveraged with margin) are based on several confirming signals, not just the one that confirms the feeling you wanted to confirm.
Good luck, but of course you always have the right to change your mind at just a moment's notice, just like everybody else who predicts market direction.
Salutations!
Steve
Excuse the formatting problem, but it appears Tocqueville is listed to potentially sell up to 1.5 million shares (almost a third of their current holdings), and Franklin Gold and Precious Metals Fund may sell all of their 1.0 million shares.
This original table of Selling Shareholders is at the link below:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1160791/000107997310001116/grc_s1.htm#sellingsh
Number of Shares Owned
Number of Shares Owned After Offering(1)
Name of Selling Shareholder
Prior to the Offering
Shares to be Offered
Number
(#)
Percent
(%)
Advanced Series Trust, solely on behalf of AST Academic Strategies Asset Allocation Portfolio(2)
9,000 9,000 0 *
AQR Funds - AQR Diversified Arbitrage Fund (2)
72,500 72,500 0 *
AQR Opportunistic Premium Offshore Fund, L.P. (2)
11,000 11,000 0 *
AQR Delta Sapphire Fund, L.P. (2)
11,000 11,000 0 *
CNH Diversified Opportunities Master Account, L.P. (2)
7,000 7,000 0 *
AQR Absolute Return Master Account, L.P. (2)
5,000 5,000 0 *
AQR Delta Master Account, L.P. (2)
72,000 72,000 0 *
Iroquois Master Fund, Ltd. (3)
187,500 187,500 0 *
Tocqueville Gold Fund(4)
4,908,976 1,500,000 3,408,976 6.4
Franklin Gold & Precious Metals Fund(5)(6)
1,000,000 1,000,000 0 *
BGF World Gold Fund(7)
1,366,437 360,000 1,006,437 1.9
Blackrock Gold & General Fund(7)
736,573 240,000 496,573 *
TOTAL:
3,475,000
orion1, thanks for the info about buyers. Tocqueville being a buyer is reassuring, however, they may be an eventual seller to Hochschild (for control) in future. Time will tell.
The link you gave pointed me to copies of the revised employment agreements for the 3 Reid brothers, that is, Bill (Moe), Jason (Joe) and David (Curly).
I'll follow up to look at their website afterhours today to see what they posted there.
Thanks again for the important details about buyers.
Regards,
Steve
Somebody's selling GORO:
Gold Resource (GORO) Files 3.48M Common Shelf for Selling Shareholders
8:09 am ET 10/25/2010 - StreetInsider
Gold Resource Corp. (Nasdaq: GORO) filed a registration with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the sale, from time to time, of up to 3,475,000 shares of Common Stock on behalf of Selling Shareholders.
GORO will not receive the proceeds from the sale of the shares.
Should we worry? I dunno; after you call GORO HQ to ask them, please let me know if I should worry. Maybe Mr. Reid knows he plans to buy rights on some additional acreage (so stock price may dip again), and maybe even the CEO thinks it's a little higher than it should be.
After reviewing the most recent presentation (focusing on high hopes), there's definitely a lot of work to be done before they expand the mill and increase production to 200,000/yr though.
There should be some drill results announced slightly prior to kickoff of the annual meeting. If not discussed even at the annual meeting, I will then give myself permission to be worried.
Meanwhile, I doubt Raw Falafel will sell a share though ...
Keep the faith!
'peeker
2 Form 144s appear to have been filed yesterday. Not sure if they are copies of same thing, but posted about 15minutes part.
Form 144: Filing to Sell 100000 Shares of Gold Resource Corp (GORO)
Oct 21, 2010 (Vickers Stock Research via COMTEX) --
Document Processing Date: October 20, 2010
Filer: REID, WILLIAM W.
Relation:
Stock Name: Gold Resource Corp
Stock CUSIP: 38068T105
Stock Symbol: GORO
Exchange: AMEX
Transaction date: October 20, 2010
Shares for sale: 100000
Value held: $2300000
Broker: SCHWAB (CHARLES) & CO.
Copyright (c) 2010, Vickers Stock Research Corporation. All rights reserved.
Bill Reid just sold 200,000 shares on 20 Oct per Form 144 filings yesterday.
Of course we are unable to tell if this implies anything about drilling results... and, of course, Bill won't tell.
PS> Nicely done updated presentation on their website at:
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/genera//files/companies/gold_resource_corp__presentation__21st_oct.pdf
08:19 Gapping Up this morning:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RVBD +12.8% (also announced a 2-for-1 stock split to be effected in the form of a stock dividend; upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), ACTG +11.3%, FTNT +9.9%, ATHN +9.9% (light volume), XXIA +6.5% (also upgraded to Buy at Wunderlich), ERIC +6.5%, AFOP +6.2% (thinly traded), ESIC +5.6% (thinly traded; also acquires PGiSend and PGiNotify businesses from Premiere Global Services for $105 million in cash), CPWR +5.4%, SNDK +5.3%, BPOP +4.8%, CMG +4.6%, PLCM +4.4% (also upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo), CPHD +3.9%, BIDU +3.6% (also upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), GPRE +3.4%, CA +3.4%, KEY +2.4%, SLB +1.5%.
M&A news: CLRT (still halted; GE Healthcare to acquire cancer diagnostic company for $5/share).
Select financial related names showing strength: IRE +4.1%, RBS +2.2%, LYG +2.1%, AIG +1.7% (discloses that AIA Group has determined the price for its public offering of ~7.03 bln ordinary shares at HK$19.68), ING +1.6%, HIG +1.1%, NBG +0.9%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: RIG +1.1%, APC +1.0%, RDS.A +1.0%.
Other news: RITT +29.9% (still looking around for catalyst), DVAX +6.8% (Dynavax Technologies demonstrates superior seroprotection in diabetics compared to Engerix-B), HTZ +3.0% (still checking), CY +2.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), AZK +1.0% (ticking higher; reports 3Q10 operating results: 29,905 oz of gold; lowers Casa Berardi production guidance), EBAY +1.0% (continued strength following earnings yesterday).
Aden Sisters' excerpt about PM prices:
"The gold and silver price reached another record high last Thursday. And while both were hit by the news from China (boost in interest rates), they remain incredibly strong by staying above $1325 and $22.50, respectively. The “C” rise has been amazing and unusually long, and the normal thing now would be at least a 10% correction. The numbers will tell us… keep an eye on $1325 Dec gold. A clear close below this level would mean a correction could then take gold to possibly $1250. But even if it does, the market would remain very strong."
AMNF: CEO is optimistic for Q4:
"Pera concluded, "Although our fourth quarter profits a year ago were strong, given indications to date, we anticipate that Q4 2010 profits will exceed them."
OT: Online brokers: I use Ameritrade for option trades and lowpriced stocks trades; it's also a good place to trade ETFs (zero commission on ETF trades). Also use Scottrade and TradeStation and Schwab because I like some of their tools.
You can probably Google for "online brokerage comparison" to get useful comparison charts.
15:52 REE: Rare Element ticks to highs as headlines cross wires suggesting China has halted shipment of rare earth materials to the U.S. (11.20 +1.58)
There have been recent articles suggesting China would reduce its export of these rare minerals.
OT: Interactive Broker question.
Where you trade is partly a simple math problem. For instance, brokerages that charge by the share get expensive for true penny stocks. In other words it costs a large commission to trade 1million shares of a ten cent stock at Scottrade or Interactive Brokers, but it's still only about $7 at Ameritrade.
I use multiple brokerages to take advantage of certain features they offer. For example, I like Scottrade for certain features but I've learned NOT do place orders on sub-dollar stocks because their commission gets ridiculous if I want to trade lots of shares. My assumption is that similar high commissions would pertain at Interactive Brokers for trading 10-cent stocks, but they are a great place to trade for other reasons.
Kozuh, just kidding. So here's the link to Animated lemur gif
http://www.gifanatics.com/gif/dramatic-lemur
15:07: TGB - Taseko Mines: headlines crossing that Canadian fisheries did not make a decision on TGB's Prosperity Mine; could have been what impacted stock earlier (6.18 -0.71)
15:09 "TGB's Prosperity deposit is a gold-copper porphyry with a 1.0 billion tonne measured and indicated resource containing 5.3 billion pounds of copper and 13.3 million ounces of gold. At today's metal prices (US$1,000/ounce gold and US$3.15/pound copper) the project has a pre-tax net present value of C$3 billion and a 40% pre-tax internal rate of return... Prosperity has gone through the most rigorous Environmental Assessment review of any project in British Columbia. The granting of the Provincial Environmental Assessment Certificate in January 2010 was an important step forward. In March and April of this year the Federal Panel reviewing the project conducted six weeks of public hearings. In July, the Panel submitted its final report to the Federal Cabinet for their ultimate approval of Prosperity. The company expects final approval in October. In anticipation of final approval, Taskeo has been advancing aspects of the project. In July 2010, a contract was signed with Ausenco Limited for the first stage of the Engineering and Procurement. During the second quarter of 2010, statutory permit applications were submitted, including the application for the British Columbia Mines Act Permit. Additionally, procurement of long lead equipment, project financing and negotiating concentrate sales agreements continue to be advanced."
TGB flash crash; big volume selling burst took it all the way down to 4.58 before rebound. Now back over 6.00, but implies trouble with Prosperity approval ?????
Scuttlebutt is that Robert Wheatley will take on a bigger role in TRGD and TARM in future, not just ADIT. He's supposedly working with an experienced analyst supporting an attempt to assess value of the various TRGD and TARM properties now.
Also expect an experienced contractor to take over operations at the mill and mine at Don Roman, including the processing of the tailings recently acquired at El Tigre. Yes, TARM realized they haven't done a good job of running the mill and mine themselves, so they are supposedly hiring experts with experience.
As for how much TARM will be worth when TRGD is absorbed, go figure. Meanwhile let's hope the TRGD financials actually can be brought current (as promised, and promised, and promised) to support the acquisition by TARM.
A JV deal may happen with Pichacho sometime soon as well, not sure when though.
Don't hold your breath unless blue is your favorite color.
Talk to David Barefoot for whatever details he can share.
AGM: Wade, it's not a matter of deserving a particular P/E multiple. Stock price is determined by many many many factors. Today AGM is worth exactly what it is trading for.
Not trying to be caddy, just making the point that lots of factors are a play in every stock. In the case of AGM, some people are promoting it as a good buy before earnings. That seems to have helped it rise over the last week or two.
Today overall market is down a bit due to the dollar trend (down lately), bad economic data (PPI up, unemployment, etc.), and uncertainty over AGM's upcoming earnings report (among many other things).
I am treating AGM as a volatile, day-tradable stock lately and placing a trailing stop on it whenever I buy it.
Best Regards,
'peeker
ya jinxed it ... shhhhhhhush
AUMN (due small public float) appears to be subject to sudden price jolts (selling and buying frenzies) whenever deep pockets add or reduce their positions. Quick drop this AM came on a surge in selling from somebody (perhaps thinking the closing of PP at $18.50 will cause a drop).
From recent pr:
"The Offering is expected to close on or about October 21, 2010"
Don't like the volatility but getting more used to it.
Have a great day, VMC Jr Miner manly men!
08:25 ATPG: ATP Oil & Gas: MKM notes ATPG is guiding to a 4Q10 inflection point for production
MKM notes ATPG mgmt yesterday relayed in their IPAA presentation slides that 3Q10 production was 21 Mboepd, about 6% shy of their 22.5 Mboepd est. However, the low end of the 4Q10 production guidance range of 30 Mboepd to 40 Mboepd offered in the same set of slides exceeds by more than 18% their prior 4Q10 est of 25.4 Mboepd. While that production guidance range is remarkably wide, they believe it should be so in order to reflect the lack of clarity available regarding deepwater GoM drilling operations.
ATPG experiencing some big selling volume in last 10mins. Hmmm...
I guess the CFO plans to say something really stupid in the next 2 hours?
OT: Please post OT or stock symbols first in all your posts.
Behind The Money, by Executive Producer John Melloy of Fast Money:
The pace of insider selling is picking up, and insider buying is drying up, as earnings season begins, begging the question for those investors bidding the S&P 500 towards a new 2010 high: Should you believe CEOs actions or their earnings reports?
Over the last eight weeks, on average, more than three shares were sold for every one that was bought by insiders, according to Vickers Weekly Insider newsletter. In the last week, insiders are selling at a five-to-one clip. Over time, about two sales for every one purchase are considered normal when taking into account options plans and other pre-set selling plans.
"The continued deterioration of overall insider sentiment while the market has ticked higher is further short-term reason to capture gains and cut losses as we see it," said David Coleman, editor of the newsletter.
Salesforce.com (CRM), Autozone (AZO), Google (GOOG), Netflix (NFLX) and Panera Bread (PNRA) are among the stocks pointed out by the publication with over 40 sale transactions and zero buys over the last 90 days.
Meanwhile, investors have taken the other side of that trade, bidding the S&P 500 up to the highest since May and near its 2010 closing high in anticipation of this coming earnings season. Intel, JPMorgan and Google highlight the earnings this week, but things really start to pick up next week.
"If you look at the latest business confidence surveys, then this insider selling doesn’t surprise me one bit," said David Rosenberg, Chief Economist and Strategist for Gluskin Sheff, who gained a maverick reputation as correctly being bearish in his prior role as Merrill Lynch's economist. "While portfolio managers can’t be blamed for turning bullish — after all, it's in their DNA — the typical business executive doesn't seem to share in the same degree of ebullience over the outlook for the economy even with Ben Bernanke's helicopter flying manual."
Monday, the widely watched National Association of Business Economics panel, made up of economists at companies such as Ford and DuPont, as well as academics, reduced its forecast for annual economic growth to just 2.6 percent for 2010 and 2011.
Rosenberg says investors are too quick to forget that Intel, which reports today after the bell, lowered its revenue and profit margin guidance at the end of August.
To be sure, Vickers points out that the volume of recent insider transactions has fallen because of restrictions that typically surround earnings reports and that light activity could skew some of the figures.
Still this trend didn't just begin last week.
"Typically, insider sentiment such as we are currently seeing leads us to become cautious but not necessarily outright bearish," said Coleman in the note. "However, should we see a decline in the overall market of more than a few percentage points, we’ll consider going to an all-cash position in stocks held in our model portfolios that have not enjoyed recent insider support."
14:24: Floor Talk: Market lifts to session highs reaction to FOMC minutes, which affirmed possibility for further quantitative easing; dollar pulls back
The FOMC Minutes were a highly-anticipated event today, as market participants were eager to glean any clues on the Fed's attitude toward further quantitative easing ("QE2"). While the market's initial was relatively subdued, the major averages have since popped to session highs (the Dow has jumped ~30 pts and is now +12; SPX is +3, Nasdaq Comp +14). The dollar index (DXY) has gotten hit, and is now -0.173 at 77.269.
The minutes indicated that additional monetary policy accommodation may be appropriate before long, but also that any decisions would depend upon future information about the economic situation and outlook. So, the bid in the market may be explained by the idea that the minutes affirmed the possibility of further quantitative easing measures, but at the same time, didn't scare anyone with alarming comments regarding economic conditions.
15:55 AUMN: Dahlman Rose lowers target to $85 from $104:
Dahlman Rose lowers their AUMN tgt to $85.17 from $104 after the co announced a $75 mln bought deal equity financing. Firm notes proceeds are to be used for development and exploration properties, working capital, and general corporate purposes. Firm notes based on the new fully diluted share count of 13.8 mln shares and the estimated net proceeds for the issuance (not including the execution of the over-allotment option), they have adjusted their valuation. Firm says the new financing should be sufficient to bring the Company's El Quevar asset to production.
AYSI.ob now be AYSI.pk
Nuggetman, please share details ... regarding your statement:
"Tara and Rich have much in store for Shareholders."
What are the bright points that you see?
I've gotta admit I'm having trouble keeping the faith lately since there has been no news from TARA Minerals about mill operations, shipments, sales, or such things that may keep TARM stock from falling further. I own TRGD and no TARM.
Have you heard that the SEC gave TRGD an extension til late November to produce financials?
Nice to see TRGD up today, but it is unclear tome what justifies it anymore, especially since TARM has been falling lately.
Regards,
'peeker