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Lets not forget, that the data is compiled as a whole. Meaning those that aren't in the optimum group that either has or hasn't taken DZ before they all are grouped together bringing down the chart. Unless the groups are separated, I don't expect to see the chart for its true value. That's what P2/3 is for.
What makes me hold is all the negativity that Anavex has gathered in the last 15 months, and all the company seems to do is release positive results so far.
Just wasted a minute of my life reading this scare tactic from SA
Summary
Anavex is likely to raise capital soon.
The terms will likely be ugly.
After a pop the last few days, investors have a chance to exit here.
By Parke Shall
The price of Anavex (NASDAQ:AVXL) stock has risen over the last few trading sessions as the company is feeling some momentum for the first time in a couple of weeks.
AVXL Chart
AVXL data by YCharts
Recently, the company survived an SEC investigation into its trading and, despite posting clinical data that was not received well by the market days prior, the stock has still found a bid over the last week and is trading back near $4 per share.
Upon release of clinical data for its Anavex 2-73 in Alzheimer's patients weeks prior, the stock had traded as low as almost $2.25. Those that bought in the days after this clinical data was released have surely seen a good return on their investment thus far, but we think now may be the time to exit AVXL once more and we wanted to lay out our simple reasoning in this article.
AVXL has been boosted over the last few days from a series of press releases that the company has issued.
The company has issued three press releases over the last 14 days, none of which seem to contain materially significant information with regard to the potential long-term success of the company's drug or the company's immediate financial situation, which needs to be addressed.
As of its last quarterly filing, the company has a little over $9M in cash in the bank and burned about $4.4M in cash last quarter. This leaves little time for the company to raise more cash.
AVXL Cash and Equivalents (Quarterly) Chart
AVXL Cash and Equivalents (Quarterly) data by YCharts
Now that the company has gotten the "all clear" from the SEC, we expect the company to go out and raise capital. We think that given the stock's recent move upward, investors should look at this situation as an opportunity to sell their shares prior to the terms of the company's coming capital raise being announced.
The capital raise is likely going to come in the form of a stock sale, as we don't think the company can take on meaningful amounts of debt at fair terms right now. We do expect the company to perform a dilutive equity offering, where a steep discount and warrants will be offered to those participating in the financing.
When this occurs, we expect the price of the stock to correct and move lower towards the offering price. Simply put, even if AVXL investors are in the company for the long run, which we don't recommend, there is still likely going to be an opportunity to buy shares at a much lower price after an offering price is established and the dilutive facts of a financing are recognized by the market.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Look who the fool is pushing in the alz race
Sales could also relate to our little redhead since it doesn't remove plaque
link:
http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/09/19/could-this-alzheimers-disease-drug-really-be-worth.aspx
Although this $20 billion peak sales figure may sound ridiculous at first, there are some solid reasons to believe that it's not completely far-fetched. First off, there are presently no disease-modifying treatments available for this devastating neurodegenerative disorder, reflecting the astronomically high failure rate of experimental AD drugs. Second, the incidence rates of AD have been growing by leaps and bounds largely due to an aging global population.
That's why J.P. Morgan's analysts, among others, have suggested that any disease-modifying AD drug that somehow makes it all the way to market would quickly rack up over $10 billion in sales. And without a major competitor to divvy up the market, that figure could balloon to over $20 billion by 2030.
Sounds good, but should investors believe the hype?
Biogen's AD drug candidate belongs to a class of experimental therapies designed to reduce beta-amyloid plaque levels within the brain, which theoretically should slow disease progression -- that is, if these plaques really are the root cause of AD. Unfortunately, the clinical data thus far have revealed a perplexing disconnect between plaque levels and underlying disease pathology.
As an example, Eli Lilly's (NYSE:LLY) solanezumab -- a drug not unlike aducanumab -- failed to show an improvement in cognitive ability in patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease across two large late-stage studies. Making matters worse, several other anti-amyloid therapies have also failed to improve cognitive ability and/or daily function in AD patients, casting doubt on the amyloid plaque hypothesis.
More broadly, the picture that's slowly emerging is that the complex biology underpinning AD may simply make it impossible to develop a "one-size-fits-all" type of medication. Anti-amyloid therapies -- like those being developed by Biogen and Lilly -- may ultimately end up being used as part of a combination therapy as a result.
Given the disappointing clinical history of anti-amyloid therapies and the fact that researchers still don't fully understand the underlying causes of AD, investors should probably view this $20 billion peak sales estimate purely as a blue sky scenario. In other words, it's not impossible, but it's certainly not probable.
What's next?
Biogen is in the midst of carrying out two phase 3 trials for aducanumab, dubbed "Engage" and "Emerge," respectively. Taken together, these two trials are expected to enroll 2,700 patients worldwide, which should provide ample power to assess the drug's impact on cognitive ability and the daily lives of AD patients.
Having said that, these trials won't produce top-line data until at least mid-2020. By then, Lilly's presumed last attempt at resurrecting solanezumab will have come and gone, perhaps providing a preview of aducanumab's fate in the process. But if history is any guide, aducanumab probably won't fare any better than solanezumab did in its first late-stage trials, meaning that this moonshot effort shouldn't be the primary reason for investing in Biogen -- despite its awe-inspiring commercial potential.
Q&A Act-AD update on Anavex
Heres the link:
http://act-ad.org/resources/whats-new-anavexan-update/
What’s New at Anavex/An Update
A year ago, we featured a Q & A with CEO Christopher U. Missling, Ph.D., from Anavex Life Sciences Corp. Anavex is a biopharmaceutical company based in New York City and serves as one of ACT-AD’s sponsors. We recently circled back with the team at Anavex to get an update. Please note that the views and opinions of Anavex are purely its own.
Q: In our last interview, we discussed your lead drug candidate, ANAVEX 2-73. Could you give us an update on this?
A: Last year, we started the Phase 2a trial in mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s patients with the oral compound, ANAVEX 2-73. It acts by selectively activating the stress reducing protein, the sigma-1 receptor, and muscarinic receptors, which are believed to reduce cognitive impairment. In November 2015, we presented five-week data, and recently, at AAIC 2016, we presented preliminary 31-week safety and exploratory efficacy data. So we have been actively advancing the trial.
Q: What have you found in this trial?
A: Preliminary Phase 2a data demonstrated that the study met the primary objective of safety as ANAVEX 2-73 was well tolerated and results were consistent with prior Phase 1 clinical trial data. The secondary objectives were also met, with ANAVEX 2-73 showing what appears to be a converging and consistent response for all quantitative endpoints. This includes cognitive and functional measures: Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), Alzheimer’s Disease Co-operative Study – Activities of Daily Living (ADCS-ADL), as well as Cogstate and electroencephalographic activity and event-related potentials (EEG/ERP), which consistently demonstrated improvement and stabilization from baseline in a patient population that would normally be expected to experience ongoing cognitive and functional decline.
Additionally, the Phase 2a data demonstrated positive unexpected therapeutic response events, such as improved mood, improved social engagement, and increased independent activities through 31 weeks. ANAVEX 2-73 also showed preliminary beneficial effects on reducing insomnia, agitation, and anxiety, which may suggest additional important roles of ANAVEX 2-73 in conditions correlated with multiple underlying psychiatric diseases and dementia.
The purpose of this adaptive and Population PK Phase 2a trial was specifically designed to get all relevant information needed to be able to move as efficiently as possible into larger studies. Given the positive data, we are encouraged to proceed with the plan to prepare a larger Phase 2/3 trial, for which planning is underway.
Q: What are your thoughts on the next steps for this drug?
A: The new findings this year were the observation of positive efficacy with ANAVEX 2-73 in neurodevelopmental rare disease models such as Rett syndrome, Infantile Spasms and Fragile X, Autism-related disorders. The distinct mechanistic nature of ANAVEX 2-73 to address both neurodegenerative and neurodevelopmental diseases, which have cognitive impairment in common, suggests the compound could be a candidate treatment for a precision medicine approach across a spectrum of different neurological and psychiatric diseases alike.
Two orphan designations by the FDA for ANAVEX 2-73 support the exploration of ANAVEX 2-73 as a potential therapeutic in these disorders coupled with positive human safety data.
Q: What motivates Anavex to support the work of ACT-AD?
A: We understand the pursuit to provide relief to all those affected by Alzheimer’s disease and dementia requires a team effort to solve the current unmet need of a lack of a viable therapeutics. We find the Accelerate Cure/Treatments for Alzheimer’s Disease (ACT-AD) Coalition to be one of the leaders in the Alzheimer’s research space, and we look forward to continuing to work with ACT-AD to advance awareness about the importance of this research.
Exactly, I purchased what I could at the 2.59 prices. Glad my order didn't get filled at 3.00 yesterday.
False statement. 123 is here and he's been here since the board was dead, others post every now and then. The DD is done, the stock is manipulated, and everyone's just waiting for the next announcement. So far, since I've been around for the last 13 months it's been all positive. What more can one ask for, right.
Why quote that little section when it says what the 4 projects are?
Here it is: HERE
The funded projects are:
• A Phase II clinical trial of the FDA-approved drug Leukine, to determine whether it is safe and can
help slow or prevent the progression of Alzheimer’s, led by Huntington Potter, Ph.D., Professor and
Director of Alzheimer’s disease research, Department of Neurology, Linda Crnic Institute for Down
Syndrome, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus. Leukine is approved for reducing and
preventing infection in people who have received chemotherapy.
• A Phase II clinical trial to determine if the drug Sativex, a cannabis-based liquid medication that was
previously tested for the alleviation of cancer-related pain, reduces brain inflammation and helps slow
the progression to Alzheimer’s disease in people with mild cognitive impairment, led by Isidro Ferrer,
M.D., Ph.D., Coordinator of the group Neuropathology at CIBERNED (Network Center for
Biomedical Research in Neurodegenerative Diseases), Institute of Health Carlos III, Barcelona,
Spain.
• A study to test if treatment with the drug Senicapoc can reduce brain inflammation, alter the rate of
brain amyloid accumulation, and improve memory in people with early Alzheimer’s disease or mild
cognitive impairment. In previous research, a drug similar to Senicapoc helped to reduce brain
inflammation, prevent nerve cell damage, and improve memory in mice with an Alzheimer's-like
condition. The project includes a Phase II clinical trial led by John Olichney, M.D., Professor and
Neurologist at the University of California, Davis. Senicapoc has been shown to be safe in clinical
trials of sickle cell anemia and asthma, but has yet to be tested in people with Alzheimer's.
• A Phase I clinical trial to examine the safety and efficacy to reduce brain inflammation of a novel
therapy manufactured by Longeveron LLC using stem cells derived from healthy adult donors and
that are delivered into the bloodstream of people with mild Alzheimer’s disease. Anthony Oliva,
Ph.D., senior scientist at Longeveron, will serve as principal investigator, and Bernard Baumel, M.D.,
will serve as the clinical investigator of the trial at the University of Miami Miller School of
Medicine. Longeveron is a life sciences company located in Miami, Florida. In past research, this
type of stem cell has demonstrated the ability to target and reduce inflammation, promote tissue
repair, and improve brain function in mouse models of Alzheimer’s disease.
As long as he cares more about his company and completing a ph2/3 no matter if it fails or not, I'm happy with that. Besides, why fight against the short cabal when the only thing that wins against them is data. Having a PR every time to keep shareholders happy just feeds the false reality the cabal created.
Looks like it's time for me to average down. I bet I'll have a nice amount of Christmas shopping $$ to spend this holiday season.
Since when does stabilize equal failure, especially when BP tried and failed repeatedly. They would be drooling just thinking of the yearly sales if,like some people here suggested, this became the soc to maintain decline much like insulin shots is for diabetics. We ARE being manipulated by someone with deep pockets. We ARE a threat to everyone else who has an AD trial. If we succeed in slowing or stabilizing decline, the bar is raised for every other bio in the AD field.
I stopped reading at "debunked by Adam"
Bottom line, he has a hardon for our company for some "mysterious" reason.
Such a refresher from the doom and gloom the last couple days. I still believe we have a better pipeline than axon and will continue purchasing here in the mid 3's. Glad we don't have to hear cured any more.
Imagine a partnership announcement tomorrow. That would be a good back act ya.
Tomorrow is just a poster again right? Think I might have to wake at 330 in the morning my time to see how we open tomorrow. Thinking of throwing all my "eggs" in this here basket. All that I can afford in my 401 at least. ????
I had a surreal dream where Missling drank a little too much wine and yelled out we would be sold for $102 a share. Just want my dream on record in case it happens to come true. Lol
No he is failing you in your honest opinion. You think any BP would hover around the same MC if they had A-273? If the drug works, we ourselves will turn into a BP. Certainly worth it to have patience and ignore the week to week price fluctuations.
I added today@4.86
I'll put a friendly wager against that idea Josh. I for one hope he never sells and sees his company through the phase 3 data no matter if it's positive or negative. Where others would sell, he wants to be that next big pharma company.
Took a screenshot
http://m.imgur.com/booj0xW
Until you're caught off guard and it continues going up and up and up. When the manipulators say it's time, we get our cpxx day
Not yet. I don't think it passed 75 since I was in a couple months ago. News keep coming positive though.
NEW YORK, Feb. 02, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Anavex Life Sciences Corp. (“Anavex” or the “Company”) (AVXL), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing differentiated therapeutics for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases including Alzheimer’s disease, other central nervous system (CNS) diseases, pain and various types of cancer, today announced that Christopher U. Missling, PhD, President and Chief Executive Officer, will present a corporate overview at the 18th Annual BIO CEO & Investor Conference.
Dr. Missling’s presentation is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, February 9, 2016 at 1:30 p.m. ET at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel, Conrad Suite, in New York, NY. Investors may view Dr. Missling’s presentation via live webcast (http://www.veracast.com/webcasts/bio/ceoinvestor2016/85223495157.cfm) or access an archived version via Anavex.com.
The 18th Annual BIO CEO & Investor Conference is hosted by the Biotechnology Industry Organization. It is the largest independent investor conference focused on established and emerging publicly traded and select private biotech companies.
Glad I waited till power hour to add more. Can't believe we have to wait till Feb to get rid of all the bs lawsuits.
In my opinion, She is part of the current short attack. Her bio says she used to work for thestreetsweeper for 8 years. Just seeing Jim Cramer in her bio made me see what her intentions where. The real question is who is loading up at these prices. They just had an invite to talk to congressional people and now this? Somethings up. The great shakeout of retail now in progress.
I remember you saying it would be a good trade then reinvesting it back here. Never did you say it was a long.
Just hold on till the next data release. Any type of response they do will only help the shorts short again. Only data or a partnership will bring us to a higher stable pps. Until then, like tootall said buckle up with your big boy shoes and enjoy the ride. Well, it's honestly not to enjoyable right now, but when we head the other direction we can all say..... Remember when I almost sold at <$4.
I knew I should have took another day off from the board. Same ol p@d comments with no specifics as to why. I agree with pdtrader that soon enough we will be back to pps being double digits. People just need to accept the fact we go manipulated this low and take advantage of it if you believe in the company and their end goal. I added and will continue adding at these early Christmas gift prices. I'm in it for the long haul.
Ain't it peculiar how Jean was so active in the comments section of his "hit" piece, then once he got quick intelligent replies he shut down and one can no longer see his comments because it looks as though he deleted them. Anyone happen to screenshot them for future reference. A lot of comments are being deleted and they don't even violate anything. Guess truth isn't what SA is looking for.
Haha as he rides in on his horse and lantern. I'm comfortably in, long, patient, and am ignoring all the noise that happened the last 7 days. When the market is ready it'll go up. $14 is a thing of the past and one day we will get there again thanks to science and our tireless Ceo.
GLTA
Bud, your not allowed to come back to Hawaii with a theory like that. Haha
Agree with you Minotaur 100%. Imagine how much retail got taken out on this artificial dip
I haven't sold. I actually bought more yesterday. I believe science will silence the doubters in due time. We should have expected something like this to happen to shake confidence. I just hope we never think of doing anything with axon and their drug that is as effective as 5 cups of coffee a day.
We would have to go down a few more $$ before I'm even break even, so I'm not panicking. However, here's to tutes getting their entry point price and the steady climb that should follow soon after.
And I sure hope they have no ties to axon. Imagine if they were to control 51% I'll try my best to stay away for a couple days. Everyone seems too emotionally attached right now. I bought more today at 8.32 thinking it wouldn't go lower, boy was I wrong.
I like to think positive most of the time. AF may be winning some battles, helping funds to get shares cheaper and out of weak hands, I'll still be holding when AVXL wins the war. So no matter what happens to the pps the coming days or weeks, we all know who the real deal company is.
I'm hoping you take Miss Aus with a grain of salt. For all we know it could be a reincarnated PD(youknowwho)
What's up Bud, Oahu. Also known as shark attack island these last few days.
I used to live in Butte,MT for a couple years. Then I got wise and moved back home to Hawaii