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It is most likely those puts will be expired worthless as the sellers might have used the premiums to buy those April calls.
The call options have been steadily exercised recently as the seller scrambled to either surrender own shares or buy shares from open market to deliver to the buyer.
Of course a small fraction of those transaction comes from retails!
I cannot help but reply to your exaggerated reply by this written in Yahoo board by arhdan9 • Apr 9, 2015 6:21 PM
"A Beautiful Battle Waged by Sir Woodford & He Has Been Winning_Analysis of Abnormally High Volumes of Option Trading
We all know there are huge volumes of April $7 strike call options traded and huge July $6 strike put option traded so far. Although there are numerous possibilities in terms of what really its implications. But it seems the most likely possibility in general is that Sir Woodford had initiated both these two large pools of option trading:
He bought those calls funded by his selling of those puts since he believes the good data are coming and his financial strength behind his commitment or conviction of going long NWBO on the context of knowing that he would had a major financing deal with the company , i.e., the recently announced $40 million deals with the company.
On the other hand, the shorts thought that the company was in desperation of needing funding to fund its existing L trials, the future D trials, etc., and did not believe the company could get any favorable deal with anybody. They initiated those call selling (to Woodford, etc. unfortunately for the shorts) hoping to pocket the premiums while driving the price down further. Again the shorts thought the price would further decline by July after the ASCO hype withered, so they took the bite of those July put selling (from Woodford, etc.) and ended up of bought those puts.
Now, we have known Sir Woodford has been winning the battle as the share price steadily and continually appreciated: he has been either exercising his deep in money call options or simply closing those profitable call operation as the shorts have to deliver those shares to him via either buying in the open market at increasingly higher price as each day passes by.
The irony of the situation is that the currently share price appreciation may be actually in part (or a major part) is fueled by the shorts. LOL!
Of course, because of the dynamics shift in favor longing the stock, more and more retail investors have firmed in the support of the long institutions represented by Sir Woodford."
That's not true, senti. One or two brokers may not have shares to lend, but there are still shares there to anyone who has appetite to borrow.
It seems that it is difficult to find some persons who do have that kind of appetites!
From interactive Broker as of 10:36am this morning:
"Symbol: NWBO
Availability: 30'000
Exchanges: NASDAQ"
Glad to see you have awakened instead of blaming your investment misery on his advice or analysis!
Best of your posts I have read so far. Are you a different person know?
Your impatience regarding HE negotiation is nonsense, and its relation with DNDN is outrageous!
Let the German stand in heat! NWBO should never give an inch to the German in terms of price which I think is the sticky point.
It is because the slow moving process of HE price negotiation that I have added to my already huge (128,000 shares plus lots of $3 and $7 leap call options I bought last summer).
Ever increased confidence is never a bad sign, who care your or his or her impatience.
I have told that little Pyrr long ago that DYNAMICS has changed. To invest in a company requires micro-analysis but more macro-analysis.
I have pity of those who constantly and endlessly bring some trivial things here to FUD!
I am not an expert either, but have traded options for years. My understanding is that this situation usually happens when there is not a high volume.
IMHO, because of this unusually low premium (almost with no time values for almost two years of time), it is a real bargain for buyers of these leap calls. Of course if you don't believe the success of either L or D, then don't buy any leap calls. In addition, time values are relatively insignificant for in the money leap calls compared to out of money calls!
I have lots of leap call options at strikes $3, and $7 along with a very large number of shares.
Nonetheless, things can change very quickly, making leap options very expensive.
The last I want to say is that compared to the manipulation of shares, option manipulation is more rampant!
Thank you for your honesty.
Yes you all have failed, Cramer, AF, you sir, along with a long list of others with the first letter beginning with K, I, A, etc.
But, not get scared! This is just a combat in a grand campaign.
Please keep your spirit up and high for the next combat, and the next next combat.
We will see how you are doing when price hits $30, $60,
Or even $1,000.
I am a believer!
You two make a great but flawed team, along with some of endless posters here we all know, one started wit a letter of I, other with a K, one other a S, and maybe even the delicate one with a R.
But I have to declare all the statements above are just my speculations on my personal observation and dozens of years of investment experience.
Happy investing, longs or shorts. At the end, what all that matters is truth!
See you tomorrow!
I have a friend who is the envy of our local investment club for his spectacular investment successes and wonders.
At the end, he was broken, and fired from his position because he temporarily moved some company's money into his margin accounts.
Your behavior sometimes make me think about that poor guy!
Happy to see your somewhat adapted comments. That's a smart guy used to do, not a Ph.D. like me. Anyhow, I know you and your stand, so no matter what.
"The whole problem really is that they stopped getting scans after 2 months. Continued imaging at 4 and 6 months would likely have revealed a number of additional psPD in the "undetermined" cohort."
You are probably right, but as usual, your problem (or why people are judged you harshly sometimes is really due to your own fault) is that you only pick the one you like while intentionally leave the other half unnoticed. For instance, your statement "would likely have revealed a number of additional psPD in the "undetermined" cohort" is equally applicable for rapid progressive patients, etc.
I thought you promised not to comment anymore?
Not all, at least maybe you should exclude me from that group. I, an immigrant, earned a Ph.D. in engineering in an "Ivy," and have worked dozens of years in various sectors, including industry, academics, and even a lawyer firm.
But don't challenge me with an English contest!
Anyhow and anyway (do those two words the most hated in the world?), cheer for today's great results and your mostly true analysis and observation.
We are heading to higher land, and we should leave plenty of time for market to respond!
Where is our "expert,"? with his analysis based on definite 24 pseudo progression patients in 55 information arm. Now I cite a yahoo post below:
"Yes, the idiot in IHub has made the number of pseudo progression patients at 24 as if it is a fact. Now we know only one patient is confirmed to be pseudo pression. Yes, as you said for most conservative point of view (impossible) by assuming all those 25 indeterminate patients are pseudo, the results are sill unbelievable positive and unheard of."
ditto! Guess you can still use other names. LOL.
Seriously, please keep your promise cause I would prefer to reading nonsense instead of your warped sophistication!
This is my last for today!
How he know only data on some patients are going to be talked about? He should have a quality grapefruit juice instead of the shady one!
How about coughing counts and fever temperatures, they are omitted as well!
First of all, I don't care who sold, is selling or the opposite, but RK how you are so sure about his position?
Have he told you or has you checked his accounts?
The writing on the wall is just as black and white it can get (my strong speculation of course, no fact).
I reach my limit of posts for today after I click submit.
Pyrr, I am not sure whose money will be in the drain. Don't worry mine is and will be taken care of.
I would like to invite you for a drink of craft beer plus some grapefruit juice, when either of L and D is a definite success.
If you are busy, I can deliver it to you just give me your address then.
RK, I concur what you have said about him. He certainly seems to be more weighted in puts than calls thought he said otherwise,and I also believe he will be proven wrong.
Astavakra, if you happen to read this post, my thanks to you for your post reminding me a happy hour will take place later today.
This is my last post according to quota. and have a good weekend everyone!
I did take a look, and find a bit confusion. Strictly from the reading, yes it seem to have an element of ph2. I guess it may just some sort of unofficial exploration in the part of ph 2 element since no official announcement.
Anyhow I hope that is the case, and for that yes we will reasonably expect some strong efficacy data.
To anyone, I only have limited three posts a day. So if I don't reply, please not get annoyed.
My game plan and the one that I have persuade some people around me to believe me is this:
On the basis of I believing DCVax-L will be known as a success anytime this year and in first half of next year,and the success of DCVax-D next year or earlier,
No reason to buy any puts, or short the stock;
I have loaded up shares immensely at an average of about $5;
I have also loaded up 2017 $3 and $7 calls immensely when stock price drop to unbelievably low last summer. Now these calls are hugely profitable.
I intend to sell nothing at this moment, and if price is not somewhere around my anticipated range which at this time is around $10 ~ 20.
So if for what reason, the price goes down to $6, or even $5, you can bet I will load up more if there are no change in my assessment of ultimate success of DCVax (just either of L or D).
I may not sell any at all before the price reach at least over $30. So when to hedge, at this point, I see no reason to do so. My best "hedge" may just lock enough profit at a right time period.
Thank you Flipper as always. I take a careful look at it tomorrow.
Richmond, I fully understand what you said and why people should hedge their long positions. It is just not the time yet in my opinion:
First, the most likely outcome of the first interim I believe would be continue. I do believe Linda wants to see the end even results are good enough to warrant a stop. I also believe she may change her mind if stop for efficacy is indeed the case of recommendation from DMC.
Second, the reason that nwbo lags behind its peers of kite, juno, blue and cldx (although they vary in various areas, such as MOA, etc,) in share price is just as plain as day: positive publicity.
Certainly Linda could not do (buy) that, and that left no one who wanted to make that happened before. Since Neil Woodford was onboard, things may start to change or may have already changed in this important front. The recent motley fools article comparing him to Warren Buffett may serve as a hint. Imaging, when other funds follow his suit, then the whole situation may just change in a sudden. I means there will be analysts making recommendations; there will be all kinds of positive spins in the media, but yes, we may continually be in the dark for a long time. Woodford's new small cap biotech focused fund which is supposed to open in April may deserve us to keep a close eye.
As long as D is concerned, we better leave it in what it is. If there are stellar results coming from ph 1 D trial, that would be a jackpot, but even with what we knew today, D has shown it is a very promising vaccine, and I believe it will be ultimately ended up with a success.
It is always a mystery how market perceives things, but at a price of around $8 now, I always think it is just a joke for all its potential. Below is a quick note I left this afternoon in Yahoo board:
"As of today, 19 March 2015, if only nwbo can achieve the same market caps of juno (4.19 billions), kite (2.82 billions), blue (3.94 billions) and even cldx (3.02 billions), the stock price of nwbo would be $71, $42, $60, and $45, respectively.
Nwbo actually has moved ahead in various important fronts, including finalizing DCVax-L Ph3 trial, advanced state of art automated (semi-automated) vaccine manufacturing capacities in the US, German, UK, which no others mentioned above can even dream of, and potentially very huge DCVax-D treatment [market] for all solid inoperable cancers!"
"There is little defense against such analysis and it certainly will come. This is one possibility where our recent gains could be pushed back to the high 5's. Betting that the company has been "pocketing" substantial, measurable, criteria-based, positive results, and will now announce them, seems a weak bet."
Remember this is a Ph 1 trial with safety its primary goal! The efficacy party should be left for Ph2 to achieve.
"The other scenario that would put us back in the 5's is if the DCVax-L trial were to receive anything less than a stop for stat sig results at the long delayed, first interim. This interim could be reached at anytime. We have all touted DCVax as a mega treatment in the making. If there is a tear in Superman's suit, watch for the fallout."
I will agree with your above statement if the number 5's is changed to 10's or even 20's!
Strictly on stock price, it is just a battle now between longs and shorts, and things may finally come in our favor due to increased institutional interests and the L trial is just on the cusp of knowing the result!
"You do think market is moved or has been moved (in this specific case) by comments in message boards (or the focused subject of comments in message boards)? LOL
When price is moved up and down significantly, people usually try to correlate what is really behind it. That's it."
And they usually get it wrong.
At this point of time, you should have long realized you have only confused yourself but nobody else. I promise you this is the last time I respond to your post.
"I also think shares in this volatile stock with very little institutional interest (though Woody is a big deal) should be hedged when the pps runs up, especially when it does so on an expectation I feel is misplaced."
You do think market is moved or has been moved (in this specific case) by comments in message boards (or the focused subject of comments in message boards)? LOL
When price is moved up and down significantly, people usually try to correlate what is really behind it. That's it.
Great. Thanks Flipper. Hope no repeaters come again in the future saying something otherwise!
Great read, thank you Senti.
I think you still don't get it on how market would react in general on a small biotech company's stock. In my 25 years of experience in trading (or investing, each 50% of the times)small cap biotech companies, nothing is important than perception, not your perception, my perception, nor any retail investor's perception, but the perception of one or two big investment houses (funds).
Of course, fundamentals are important; TA is important, catalysts are important; binary events are important, financing is important, you name it.
Still,if one wants to time and sense how high or low the stock can go, pay attention to institutional interests. I have said recently and I would like to say again that the dynamics has changed in the case of nwbo since Woodford was onboard.
How high can nwbo's stock can go? Juno, kite, blue and cldx all can serve as example with equal market cap; how low can it go? imuc may come to mind if DCVax fails.
BTW, congratulations on your selling at $7.5 one or two weeks ago and buying some put on friday, but, young man, we have a lot of things to learn.
"I'd offer you advice, but I just don't care about your money, unless you give me money to care about your money. I might even be tricking you with the above post..."
Man, I also am worry about your clients' money. They will part in due time!
Man, you have degraded yourself so low. For what you said to be true, both of the following have to be true:
You are genius;
Linda Powers is baby monkey who only know how to eat a banana.
Hi Maverick,
Thanks. I have quietly read your posts for sometime now with appreciation. You seem genuine, experienced and talented. Please keep us informed with your thoughts and comments.
Good luck,
Dan (aka antimachine-kudo in yahoo board)
Again, useless debate and question which has long been solved:
Both overall survival and PFS are accepted endpoints for GBM by FDA. Such naive question had been the central point in the bashing of AF, and has been repeatedly refuted.
Some people just don't have enough!
Hi Pyrr,
I have not doubt on your long position in NWBO, and many posters in this board. I know many people tend to catch up with already formed pattern which you accurately depicted in your reply, hoping to make repeated trade to increase profit or at least increase share counts by buying low and selling high.
Well, that strategy is no longer useful one, and the pattern of the past, in my opinion has long gone as some institutions have truly shown their interests and increased their positions.
Other institutions will follow just as most retail investors tend to follow the tide up not buy at valley. The recent days of pause of buying may just be faked pause, and we will see it very clearly within short period of time.
This is 2015, not 2014 nor 2013, a year full of catalysts and ever clear picture of high chance of successes of nwbo in both DCVax-L and DCVax-D.
Any traders will tend to trade less and less, and new positions from both institutions and retail will pile on if usual trading pattern for a biotech company also holds true in the case of nwbo.
I see no sign of otherwise, but steady build up in both share counts and share price from institutions and retail investors.
If many believe what I believe, i.e., I believe nwbo will ultimately success in its DCVax platform if this definite signs is not known this year, it will be known early next year.
In general, I don't think people want to be left out of this wonderful journey towards success; I don't think institutions holders want to see their bet doubted by their clients and the general market, unless they all want to get in more cheap and resort in dirty tactics of manipulation.
I see none of that in face of Woodford.
"I'm interested in NWBO for what will happen when Ph III data are revealed and Direct Ph II multi inject data are revealed. That will take some time. I'm just fine with that."
Agreed if you really think so. At least I do.
"A return to the $6s is very much a possibility and will bring out all of the seasoned whiners as if right on cue. What a miserable existence. They just don't get it (beyond market dynamics)."
Anything possible. But judged by the current DYNAMICS it is highly unlikely. Instead, it will probably go up to $10 first, followed by some solidation with a bit up and down for some time. Then, it will likely go up again. Depending on market DYNAMICS, it may just go up to $20 or $30 where it deserves before definite news.
In trading, fundamentals help you see the direction, long term; DYNAMICS help you see where the price will be.
and it is a long shot. Many years in the making even it succeeds in some patients with CMV-initiated GBM.
Thanks, Evaluate: this is what we ought to do instead of debating nonsense again and again!
Hi Senti,
My restriction for the number of posts for each day was reached yesterday so I can only reply to you today.
Thank you for your kind words, and I have also enjoyed reading your posts both here and over in YMB.
Particularly thanks to you for your hard work during AF & Dr.B inflicted fiasco last year on behalf of all investors.
Keep on the good work.
128,000 shares holder, plus many many more 2017 $3 and $7 contracts. Antimachine_kudo in yahoo message board is me
Thanks for your clarification. Yes, that is the only difference between you (you claim you are long, ok) and me who hold 128,000 shares and has not sold a single share, and will not at this low price, and other true longs.
I always think people are wrong on jumping up and down with normal market fluctuation, and trying to time the market, but I never think it is wrong strategy to get out if fundamentals change.
No changes of fundamentals and plenty of catalysts ahead of us!