Richmond, I fully understand what you said and why people should hedge their long positions. It is just not the time yet in my opinion:
First, the most likely outcome of the first interim I believe would be continue. I do believe Linda wants to see the end even results are good enough to warrant a stop. I also believe she may change her mind if stop for efficacy is indeed the case of recommendation from DMC.
Second, the reason that nwbo lags behind its peers of kite, juno, blue and cldx (although they vary in various areas, such as MOA, etc,) in share price is just as plain as day: positive publicity.
Certainly Linda could not do (buy) that, and that left no one who wanted to make that happened before. Since Neil Woodford was onboard, things may start to change or may have already changed in this important front. The recent motley fools article comparing him to Warren Buffett may serve as a hint. Imaging, when other funds follow his suit, then the whole situation may just change in a sudden. I means there will be analysts making recommendations; there will be all kinds of positive spins in the media, but yes, we may continually be in the dark for a long time. Woodford's new small cap biotech focused fund which is supposed to open in April may deserve us to keep a close eye.
As long as D is concerned, we better leave it in what it is. If there are stellar results coming from ph 1 D trial, that would be a jackpot, but even with what we knew today, D has shown it is a very promising vaccine, and I believe it will be ultimately ended up with a success.
It is always a mystery how market perceives things, but at a price of around $8 now, I always think it is just a joke for all its potential. Below is a quick note I left this afternoon in Yahoo board:
"As of today, 19 March 2015, if only nwbo can achieve the same market caps of juno (4.19 billions), kite (2.82 billions), blue (3.94 billions) and even cldx (3.02 billions), the stock price of nwbo would be $71, $42, $60, and $45, respectively.
Nwbo actually has moved ahead in various important fronts, including finalizing DCVax-L Ph3 trial, advanced state of art automated (semi-automated) vaccine manufacturing capacities in the US, German, UK, which no others mentioned above can even dream of, and potentially very huge DCVax-D treatment [market] for all solid inoperable cancers!"
