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LBHI decided to carry NOLs back for 5 years, I would think the result applying the same utlization of 35% and half for 2003. In this case, it's great.
Under these circumstances, LBHI should have total profit from 2003-8 more than 48B. Also, don't forget, LBHI is also entitled to get tax refund from State and NYC as long as LBHI is still in NYC. It counts about another 10% tax benefits.
Someone might figure out the total profit of LBHI from 2003-8 to confirm the above-mentioned figures. In this case, LHBI does not have to sacrafice NOLs by discouting its value. The negative side is that LBHI is shooting liquidation. If so, most likely this tax refund will go to senior creditors. My figure is around 23.85B ($53B x 45%). Unfortunately, waterfall ends before CTs. By the way, do you know 60B cash LBHI has now include any tax refund?
Moreover, other hope is that LBHI should have more NOLs for 2010. For examples, Wamu increased its NOLs from 2B to 26B due to the cancellation of owners/shareholder with WMB. I believe that LBHI lost its trading arms, it is worth a lot of money. I hope LBHI will take carring forward and then CTs could be saved.
Or, 48B is the reflection of this cancellation.....????? If so, CTs are toast.
IMHO I thought 48B+5B NOLs will be carried forwarded for 20 years after emerging out BK. This number will be available after deducting tax refund.
However, tax refund is somthing else, which I never heard anyone mentioned this here or elsewhere. I have no idea of the numbers. Or, liqudation trust is hidding this numbers.
If I am wrong please correct me. TIA
Excellent points. It probably means LBHI, as you mentioned before, will emerge out from BK11 rather than BK11 Liquidation. But do you know the value of those subsidiaries which did not file the BK? Or, is the value capable to sufficiently cover the difference? TIA
The only thing I am worried about is that Lamco is playing BK11 "Liquidation" vs true BK11. Like Wamu, actually HFs have no intention to run WMI2 but only takes advantage of NOLs.
We know that Lamco will be dissolved after 3-4 years. In other words, Lamco will sell all residual values including NOLs at a discounted rate. If everything is sold out and still not sufficiently cover senior creditors, then CTs are toast.
You probably see ex-Lehman executives working there.
If that's case, then hope A>L, we would get 100% FV.
It won't happen because the gap is too big.
Wanu's case is mirroring here. If you follow wamu's case closely, you woundn't say that.
I remeber I read something in DS or ?? saying "common will be paid until other paid in full".
CTs and other unpaid creditors will have the Lamco. At the present,Lamco does not have enough $$ to cover liabilities. We don't need equities to cover the NOLs. CTs speak itself.
@ 65% FV before TPS screwed up.
I would like look from differet angle. IMHO
Before TPS screwed up the settlement, the WMI2 has total 350 million shares corresponding to 160 shares if HFs are the only shareholders. The par value is $1.00/share.
Therefore, P+K and U are two different groups for the balance of 190 million shares. The total value of the WMI2 including NOLs only is $8.40B, not even consider BOLI/COLI, etc. The commons and preferrds have 95 million shares respectivefully.
Since HFs are going to use the NOLs itself. Therefore, we should enjoy the full value of NOLs, which is 8.05B + 350M equal to $8.40B. THAT IS THE ONLY REASON THAT WE KEEP HFs. Otherwise, we could kick them out if JFR rate (0.25%) applys.
The market value is $24/share (i.e. $8.4B / 350 million shares). U is going to have reverse split of 20:1, and total share is roughly closed to 85 million shares @24.00/share, or equal to $1.20/share.
P and K could have 65% of the FV ($24 x 95 million share / 3.5B).
H is the winner.
After TPS jumps in, IMHO, HFs still want to have 160 million shares vs balance shared by U, P+K and TPS. HFs's point is that they could use NOLs whicno longer needs to be discounted. But MW makes no money probably @$0.80/shares before reverse split. The settlement broke off.
I don't know exactly what the new law talking about. I learned from Fsshon on Wamuq board. Recently, Judge signed the order regarding the abandon of shares related to the WMB. Fsshon said "it is worth 26B of NOLs". I trust him since he is very knowledgeable and he was/is a student in law school. You could see a lot of his posts. Or, you could ask him about the details. He is very friendly.
yes, if debtor uses x tax refund money, then the toal NOLs will be less than x amount. NOL is a sort of soft money and the market value is only worth approximately 10%. Refund is a hard money, dollar to dollar.
If debtors find a tax consultants, yes, perhaps that is the reason per new law. Then CTs are in money.
He has finished his training. Now is Sargent's term.
I used up my quota yesterday, and sorry not reply you in time.
I only have general knowledge of NOLs and tax refund. In Wamu's case. the total tax refund is $5B+, which is in the escort account, will be distributed based on POR's approval. Wamu only gets $2.8B, and the balance is shared between JPM and FDIC.
According to Fesson on Wamuq board, the New law recognizes 26B of NOLs for wamu due to the abandon of stocks for the value of WMB. According to the hearing on 13th, EC experts said "the NOLs are now 23B".
By the way, the above numbers may not be 100% correct, and please forgive me if any number is off a little bit.
Also, someone said that the eligible NOLs will minus tax refund. That probably is the reason that WAMU's NOL is 23B (26B - 3B).
So, I think both wamu and lebhi went BK on 2008. They should have the same outcomes as to IRS's rules. Since the tax refund is the hard money, it should be much more important to reduce the total debts. Also, passing 2010, wamu's nol is increased from 2B to 26B according to the hearing. That is also the reason that shareholders of wamu believe that they are in money.
Of course, the refund still does not cover all 60B deficits between A and L. But, it could help us in Lamco in terms of owenership, estimated from 9-23% currently.
Because I never heard any discussion re tax refund here, I think the article you found is exactly the one. But why we did not hear from debtors regarding this matter, or included it into current "cash" assets.
Moreover, does our current NOLs reflect any "New" law as mentioned by Fesson? 5B increase on top of 48B seems too low. In any rate, the more the better.
Appreciate your comments and your expertise. Always enjoy reading your posts.
Susman only sent juniors here to keep us head above water. He uses this court as training ground and collect information free for the decisive battle in the DC.
30 million is a joke to us to fight in DC. Susman is going to get contingent fees about 30% on multi-billion dollars. JM is the Chairman/number 1 or 2 in WMI2. Money is making there.
So, you only see minimu effort from SS in order to save his reputation and future business from WMI2.
Now it is peanuts. The big game is in DC where WM and Susman make money.
You will be more surprised the conspiracy between WM and Susman.
Do you remember what other 2 subcateories are? I am sure there is a reason to establish three different sub-categories.
That is exactly the conspiracy of Susman. He only wants to keep us merely alive in WMI2 with chicken bones.
Don't expect he will load up his gun. He will save all powders for the decisive battle in DC courts. Here, you don't see smokegun. In return, he will be compensated by contingent fee based on multi-billion dollars. Also, you will probably only see him in court for TMST's case, not ours. That is the reason that Chiron keeps asking his performance. Now we know it that he is saving his efforts for the future.
He keeps sending juniors here for the training purpose plus collecting information free.
You're right. 7.5 million is a starting point here. The decisive battle is in DC covering hundred billion dollars. Why SS keeps changing our counsels is because here is the training groud and also collect information free for the battle in the future.
We might look into it from optimistical side. In order to maximize and preserve NOLs, shareholders have to maintain at 51% of Lamco. In other words, our value is 53B x 35% x 30% x 51% = $2.84B. If the above is true, we will have 23.6% recovery (total CTs = $12B).
Do you recall the coversation you had with NY Mellon the reason not to catergorize CTs under "guaranteed". If my memory serve right, the answer is "CTs will become subordinated notes". If so, then we lose all our privilege in Lamco. Also, we are under different sub-category as comparing to subordinated bonds.
Appreciate your comments. TIA
Hopefully, we all could see at least 9% of FV. Not bad. It seems better than WAMPQ now. GLTA
You know what .. EC could do but refuse to do it. Susman does not want to be paid by hours, so he lets Sargent, Nelson, or some juniors are there to keep the case/equities alive. He knew equities will be in the WMI2 but with chicken bones.
Think about, if Susman gets too much for us, he is still paid by hours. Unlike in Thorngburg case, he is compensated by 30% of $2B. You don't see him in our court but he will be in TMST's court.
So, if you were this greedy old man, what you gonna to do? IMHO Not feeding equities too much at the best condition. Otherwise, shareholder would sign the releases. It turns out this oldman gets nothing big. He definitely wants to continue this case to DC. Since WMI2 has only 30 million reserved funds for legal action. trust me,this number is a joke. The only reason to setup on purposely low because he has the point to socilitate a big contingent fees (possible multi-billion dollars).
That also answer your questions why SS did not find IT but found by an amateur Nat. He was reserving it for DC court to fight JPM/4 HFs. Unfortunately, he has to deal with now. Why you always see a new face (Nelson, Sargent..etc) because he know $20B of NOLs will keep us alive. THE MOST IMPORTANT IS THAT HE DOES NOT WANT TO SHOW HIS SMOKEGUN UNTIL IN DC COURTS. THEREFORE, YOU SEE NOTHING NOW IN TERMS OF PPS.
Let us play his rules, we're too small to fight his conspsiracy. Let buy it at the lowest price after big sinks during the following days. WELCOME AND AWAIT YOU BACK w/very low cost equities.
You're absolutely right. You only can find Susman in the court which the case could make a lot money for him, not paid by hours, as paid by the contingent fees.
You might see him with Thorngburg's case in court since he is getting 30% of $2B. Over Wamu, he knew we will win a chicken skelton with continuation to DC court. At that moment, he will represent WMI2 again with contigent fees. If he gets too much for shareholders at the most possible situation, shareholders might sign the release then SS gets nothing.
This tax refund around more than 5B are shared among WAMU/FDIC/JPM. It's a hard money dollar to dollar.
You're right only this NOLs is used by yourself. However, in order to attract new investors, you have to discount it at around 30%. There are many discussion on Wamuq board by WithCatz. You're the longs with Wamu, you probably know it.
Although the market value of NOLs is worth 18.55B, however as an investor, you definitely want to discount it (no paying the full price) normally at 30% rate.
That is. You're right. This tax refund as WMI's 5B is the hard money which is the additional to NOLs. Great finding, thank you very much Linda.
GO Lehman.
questions? is "x2" or "x3"?
Then we have a nice drink together in Vegas
until our final nail on BR's coffin
IMHO, I think CTs could be recovered upto 9% of FV.
The market value of 53B NOLs is 53B x 35%(tax bracket) x 30% (investor is willing to pay) = 5.56B
If everything remains the same, A < L = 60B.
Assuming CTs don't get any distribution at all, CTs will share the residual value of LAMCO of 5.56B with other creditors of 60B.
In this case, CT will be treated equally as other creditors because CTs can't be wiped out. In other words, the substantive consolidation will apply here in order to preserve NOLs by CTs. Unfortunately, all common and preferrd equities are gone.
CTs' future = 5.56B/60B = 9.2% of FV.
Appreciate your comments, TIA
To Linda:
Do you remember seeing any "tax refund" qualified for LBHI? Or, LBHI does not have any.
Also, do you know the current LBHI's NOLs(i.e. 53B)including any loss from the book value of the trading unit sold to Barclay? Couple days ago, JMW approved the cancellation of the value of WMB with WMI worth approximately 26B.
Appreciate your comments and expertise. TIA
I have the same doubts as mik1. Hope to have your comments of your numbers. TIA
sent an email.
I believe you.
The only problem is that all those senior creditors are not paid in full. Therefore, they will compete with us in LAMCO. Either refloat their debts in LAMCO, then they still have the higher priority being paid then us. LAMCO will run out money, and waterfall may end before CTs. Or, we, including senior creditors, will be converted to commons for unpaid portion. The chance is slight unless there are a lot of hidden assets like WAMU.
She is NOT qualified as to be "Honor". She is either "incompetent" or "bought out by JPIG'. $4B will cost "JPIG" economic diaster. What a joke...She forgort JPIG gave out $10B for bonus.
Appreciated your comments, thanks
May I ask a stupid question? If all equities (u/P/K) were cancelled, could HFs(creditors) utlize/reserve 100% of NOLs for the WMI2? TIA