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Biogen already partnered with Denali and took a 10% shareholder equity position in DNLI. One should analyse the metrics of that deal to understand the partnering landscape for Anavex.
One would have a much surer and quicker less anxious deployment of capital to buy AVXL here premarket and through out today rather than playing around a short term short position in Biogen. AVXL looks like an excellent for short intermediate and especially long term investment time frames right here. An excellent opportunity to accumulate right here. Carp Deim!
Sage sorry to say the advisory commitee is not the FDA. It is an independent non binding advisory commitee of experts. Given the undue influence of some RICO leaning BPs the FDA is likely to ignore the advisory commitee and give Aducanumab a favorable descision they will do so with some type of "1984" style doublespeak they used to approve Remdesivir.
Good question.Only a fool or a liar would say there was a primary endpoint miss. A primary end point miss would be an adverse event that Anavex would have needed to disclose pursuant to Law and SEC regulations in a matter of days from first learning of it. They have been in possession of the data for sometime and no disclosure of any adverse material developments. As the saying goes "Can not sit on material bad news."
So now you know who maybe a fool or have an agenda against Anavex.
To make obscene amounts of money by first pumping it up by HF wash trading a few 100ks of stock hundreds of times a day to create the illusion of millions of shares buying into The Target stock then on the cue event HF wash trading it down in a golden cascade (for them) to crash the price where they buy it back up. Do it every week on a smaller scale and on major event days go greedy hog fricking wild.
Have you ever seen a stock trade volumes of multiples of its outstanding share count in a single day? Ask yourself how is that possible? It is from high speed computer trading algos trading the same shares over and over hundreds of times over back and forth in a single day.
I would say the insiders and direcors and especially Missling needs to step up to the plate and spend a good chunk of their salaries on open market stock purchase instead of just getting free shares and options at the cost of the other shareholders. Directors of other beaten down Biotechs step up to the plate and purchase shares and It usually has a very positive effect on shareholder sentiment and therefore share price. I understand they are putting sweet into for equity but how about some life blood and tears like the retail holders do.
That said I believe today was an intentional HFT wash trade walk down price suppression just like every other time Anavex releases good news. Paradoxically if the news was even better the smack down may have been greater.
Agree 100%. I am not a frequent trader and do not sell 1/2 to trade around a core. If I sell I sell most all in tranches or called away from covered calls. I did that twice this year. Once in Febuary in the $5s very large positions the bought back in March in the $2s and then sold all in August in $5s again to sidestep this PDD event.That is frequent trading in my book I missed the $6 and $7 but will start rebuilding a position over the next 6 to12 months. I buy very slowly over time to get a good average low price buy nibbling dips. But I have held a very large position for over 5.5 years. mREITS and Oil Pipelines were just too tasty in March and April to go all back in. Not a market timer and missed selling Oil Pipelines in June sold later for a smaller profit. In all non revenue companies now to avoid market corrections due to overvalued artificially FED fueled market. AVXL looks good here and I thought it was good data and that AVXL is significantly derided after this cement has passed as in time and in emitting its objectives. All systems go... somebodies got this and I intend to rejoin for a long term investment. Sooner rather than later AVXL will follow the trajectory of my other relatively obscure favorite Arrowhead Pharma. Hockystick that longs are waiting for in AVXL are likely ... Look at a 5 year chart of ARWR for inspiration..it limped along in single digits for years before in hit the teens then made it to 60s and 70s in just a few months.
AVXL should be approaching those quick growth teen ages fairly quickly.
Use these artificial price suppressions or short attacks HFT wash trade walk downs to add shares a little at a time over a long period. It just takes patience and perserverance. If you did not sell you lost nothing and gained nothing. Also you avoided a taxable event or converting Long Term Cap gains status into short term ordinary income treatment.
Very well said. I 100% agree.
What do you suppose the BIIB price action if Form 4s come out in a few days that Biogen insiders and 5% plus shareholders sold the pump on Nov 4th and 5th?
i bet Buffett is not out of Biogen he invests long term and is a horrible market timer. All his reasons to buy Biogen none involved aducanumab. Strictly a balance sheet guy and Aducanumab is now a loss to balance out against Biogen profits. It is a plus for Biogen to shoot the lame horse Aducanumab before they spend anymore money developing it as it likely would never garner much market share even if approved and they would have faced competition from better drugs in the future, blarcamisine for one.
I believe the Aducanumab saga in the end game was more about manipulating Biogen Market Cap. As good as Biogen's scientists are Biogen management is better at what they do. So much so as seems to border on a criminal enterprise. Biogen is the poster boy for drug price gouging and market cap munipulation.
Biogen sent a clear signal that they had little confidence in Aducanumab when they did the Denali deal. Monday could be bad for Biogen but wait to see if insiders dumped Nov 4th and 5th. The Nov 4th release of the disceptive FDA briefing documents suggesting favorable FDA advisory panel vote was truly bizarre and seems criminal on its face. Truth often stranger than fiction or can't make this stuff up.
If anyone can get away with this type of behavior brazen Biogen can.
When will retail learn that the Big HFT Algo Firms spike the price when they want to sell and dump the price when they want to buy. Yesterdays BIIB pump was a red flag or should have been for long term Biogen investors to sell. Today's price action in AVXL signals to me anyway that these firms want to accumulate Avavex cheaply on what was actually very good news. Therefore should be a strong signal to further accumulate AVXL, now further risk reduced both from scientific and share price perspectives. As XENA says "smoke and mirrors" accomplished by HF wash trading to move the temp share price to where they want to buy or sell.
If one does not believe in the existence of Devils it is impossible to spot their evil deeds.
HGEN stock price has been controlled by HFT Algos since they were KBIO. The price is up for the controlling Knomes to dump stock.If the news were good the stock price would be down to allow the Knomes to buy cheap. AVXL is controlled in the same way by these Algo Firms ( Knomes or Cabal) AVXL news was excellent AVXL is down 27% the day of the excellent data release. Look at the history of AVXL it always crashes on good news. Buy the dips in these stocks that are controlled by the Cabal or the Nerdy Greedy Mathematician Knomes as I call them.
Any BP that would pay 15 billion for Anavex would likely quickly get a 30 to 50 billion bump. DNLI market cap is now 6 billion helped along by the Biogen investment partnership.
Also Blarcamisine is a cost effective pill taken at home versus an IV infusion at a clinic. Then we get into side effects and yes efficacy. But as the FDA has shown they favor BP as in the Remdesivir fiasco itmight have some benefits to partner with a BP.
Algos churning here at 1.37 to 1.38 to get traders to think it stalled encouraging traders to sell before the next run up today. Algos are in up mode for the next days most likely. $2.20 could come quickly leaving traders stopped on the top side. Stop buys on short positions likely with a possible squeeze.
No reason to get anxious to sell this spike traders as NWBO is still oversold at this level. The mid point of the rising channel is about $1.5 and top is $1.85 so until over $1.85 it is normal and natural price action. This is good news it might push to $2.20 over the next few days and this could be an inflection point to steeper the upward slope of the price channel. I am holding firm to all shares until TLD no matter how high it spikes.
No take down today is likely 2.8 million shares in first 22 min
I have the same calculation on the one standard deviation linear regression channel
Rocket protocol. Strap in!
HFT Algos flipped the switch to up spike mode
Excellect point. Most likely the 2.50 pop and drop was manufactured by HFT both ways. The drop most certainly was.. 10 million in volume just needs the same 100k traded a 109 times. They can do that easily and automatically with high speed computer trading.
My fave coffee I can not tell you the brand as all letters are in Indonesian just whole beans in a gold package from Java.
I generally agree with Andres post as well. Could not respond to the private message. Generally speaking when AF and so many short and distort players target a stock such as NWBO, Anavex and CytoDyn it is because they have disruptive technologies that threaten established Pharma profit streams. This goes quadruple for NWBO and CytoDyn as opposed to Anavex who are also much closer to the watershed events. NWBO TLD and partnership CytoDyn approval HIV and possible Covid EUA. Anavex has a longer timeline but more compact share structure.
The warrant exercise fear is FUD from fudsters AND honest fear from longs who are not aware of how HFT Firms like invented by Rennasance Technologies completely manufacture pops and drops over as little as a few days then create what looks like a massive volume drop of 10 million shares a day simply by using computer algos to trade as little as 100k shares hundreds of times a day. This is why on wild rides on news one might see some stocks traded multiple of all outstanding shares of the company in a single day. The drop from the $2 highs all in one morning was not warrant sellers more likely HFT Algos scalping NWBO as they do so many stocks that have seen a rapid rise many of these other stocks might not even have warrants. What they do have is the rapid rise before the fall. This rapid rise is also "smoke and mirrors" as it was the same HFT Algos That ran the price up. No warrant holder in their right mind would dump millions of shares in a market sell order some morning in a single hour as it would decimate the value of the investment. Instead they would trickle them into the market over days.
You are welcome. It is always hard to follow the suggestion of the channel when the stock has broken out above the channel as one is hoping a new steeper channel is developing. But looking back at the price movement over the last 10 days it is easy to visualize what happened based on the regression channel and see that the recent drop was normal and natural and nothing to be concerned about as NWBO is still in a fairly steep at 12 cents a day rise on average over the last 90 days. The recent drop confirmed the validity of the channel and in fact likely strengthened and firmed up the share price going forward. Just a reversion to the mean and still in a steep rising trend.
5 days up in parabolic spike. 5 days down in parabolic draft. That parabola is complete. However on a linear regression line cancelling out all the noise of up and down spikes NWBO has been gaining $0.12 per day average since August. The correction of the last 5 days simply brought the price to the bottom of the channel at $0.97 now it is moving within the channel. The day before yesterday and the 5 previous days NWBO was trading a whole standard deviation above the channel which is 2 standard deviations wide $0.35 wide. The center is at $1.47 and rising $0.125 per day. On Oct 15 two days into the up parabola NWBO was testing the top of the channel about where the center is now. Ingnore the noise and enjoy the ride. NWBO is in a firm uptrend of $.12 per day and the last 5 days did not break that trend rather confirmed it as the stock price held the bottom of the up channel.
Yes selling what they own followed by selling what they don't own followed by buying back and selling again hundreds of times a day or even hundreds of times an hour. Automatically by computer programs designed to run the price up or down. Stop loss clean outs and pump and dumps. The only way retail can combat this is knowing what one owns and not get caught up in herd panic. Buy dips and sell rips.
I hope you are feeling much better. Yes it was definitely a HFT algo. Could have been accomplished by one trader with the HFT algo market access and as little as 200k actual shares. Anyone that does not believe in HFT Algos likely has never watched a stock trade at multiples of total outstanding shares in less than a whole trading day. They can work it both ways up and down.
HFT Algos cleaning the clocks of fearful retail sellers with the frequency of a sonic dental cleaning tool.
Bust not busy
Then play it out. The only winners among the warrant holders will be those that did not sell or sold a lot less than others. Same as stock holders of course assuming the TLD is good. Under your theory all warrant holders must be assuming the TLD is a total busy to crash the price of their overall investment in NWBO.
Warrant overhang never crashes the price of stocks without a negative catalyst. Warrants can cap run ups and cause a slow bleed down pressure when there is no news to keep share price moving up. Think about it in terms of John Nash Game Theory.
Solid post. Smart.
Spoken like a true fearful sheeple.
I have seen it in other stocks. It is High Frequency Trading Algos and could have been less than a million shares traded over and over at I high rate both buys and sells at same time to pull down the price to run stop losses and spook others into panic selling. There may have been NET accumulation by the HFT algo operator trader.
There is near ZERO chance this was warrant selling. That suggestion is just FUD or misplaced fear.
Luck does not have a thing to do with it. It is know what you own. NWBO pipeline is maybe a 100 times the value of Celator. This would have to be realised organically not even AZN could muster the resources to pay the intimate value. But 30 to 45 billion might be acceptable. I will buy whatever Company buys out NWBO with both fists.
The pattern was a dumping pattern not an orderly selling pattern. It made it look like a panic. That is not how be longs lighten up on holdings. They do in increments. These were dumped in the first few hours of one day. No reason to dump all in one day in just a few hours. Fire sales never get a decent price. They would have sold slowly to try to avoid crashing the price. It is not a guess it is logic and knowledge of how institutions distribute shares into the market.
Nice blueprint for NWBO. CPXX two weeks before TLD CPXX peaked at $2.37 then cut in half over the next two weeks the TLD bam from $1.68 to $8.94 5x bagger the doubles again in steady rise for 11 weeks to $17.53 bam now a 10x bagger. Then BAM buy out $30.25 double again for a 20x bagger. All in the space of about 90 days. Celator was a late stage leukemia drug Biotech. One drug no NDA filed but ready to file..bought out by Jazz.
Great illustration there Kam8.
That is a subtle psychological illusion the number and amount gained or lost is exactly the same. 50% is 1/2 100% is 2/1. The value of the magnitude is the same just going in different directions. It is just a confusion of the meaning expressed as percentages. It is no more difficult to gain it back expressed as a percentage. Mind trick of confusion that's all.