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Bingo, Blue. The short game is manipulate the stock down with algos and then sell you on a fundamental reason for the decline. Unfortunately, some people refuse to accept that it is the manipulation itself that caused the decline, so they start grasping for some imagined fundamental reason. Precisely what the manipulators want them to do. "Thank you for playing along."
Hard to say, because of the unknowns, such as AMGN milestone payments and additional licensing deals. They certainly don't need cash now either way. The only reason they filed a shelf is that the old one expires soon and they need to have flexibility.
Well, when the pps assumes it's proper value then the interests will be more aligned because management's options will be more fairly priced. I get some people's point--and I agree--that it is somewhat irresponsible for management to have diluted us all several times while negating the effect of dilution on themselves by continually increasing their own stake. That being said, the board proposal does not actually issue any options to management. It simply authorizes a pool of shares/options. So everyone should feel free to make their voices heard to the board. However, our voices are essentially irrelevant. The tutes are the only parties with the ability to affect the outcome. And thus far there is no evidence that they care.
Oh, for sure, the short manipulation machine will try to to take it down by playing to people's fears but it'll have nothing to do with "the market" thinking that any of this matters. All traders and the mm's playing their games, as usual. Meanwhile, the smart shorts will take advantage of it by continuing to cover. I too would love to see them get trapped with news very soon, possibly this week.
The irony is that despite all of the criticism about the management incentive plan (me included), nobody is going to sell because they know what they really have here, and the incentive plan is not even close to a reason to doubt what ADXS is really worth, and will be worth.
Vidpok, send Denner an e-mail. See what he thinks. Broadfin is also fairly activist. My suspicion is that neither of them see this as particularly unusual, because they know the real reasons for the current share price. As for Sarissa/Denner, the proof of that is in the pudding. They bought a big chunk of shares AFTER all of the supposed horrible misdeeds of management.
Fbg, why don't you attempt to contact Phil Gross at Adage and urge him to put a stop to the incentive plan? I'm serious.
I agree, it is a lot of options. That's why I'm voting no.
Fbg, I've never agreed with that point and I never will. I'll repeat for the hundredth time, the stock price is undervalued and management has no control over it. The institutional investors don't give a rat's butt that management grants itself options. Let's say for argument's sake that they proposed a rule saying "no more management options for three years." The stock might go up .05 for about 15 minutes. Virtually irrelevant. All that matters is the trials and, at some point, licensing.
Well, none of this actually grants shares or options, as you know. Similar to the shelf, it simply makes issuance possible.
I've always said the RSUs and options are greedy. I simply disagree that it has a thing to do with the share price.
Blue, it looks like DOC has 1.2 million options at an average strike of $13.44.
I agree, Investisbest. 2018 buyout, probably right around March 2018 when DOC's 2015 options fully vest. lol.
I will vote against Proposal 2. Too greedy on the Executive Incentive Program with authorized shares (or options) at an automatic 2.5 million share increase per year (minimum). Plus, it is cumulative, so any shares not granted in a year rollover and get increased by at least 2.5 million the following year, and so on. Finally, the proposal includes authorizing RSU's, unrestricted shares, and share appreciation units (SARs). Absolutely not. Under no circumstances would I vote for that. Options only, and they'd better be at market and reasonable in number if/when they are granted. Enough of this crappola already.
Proposal 3 I will vote "for." It simply ratifies the 2015 options grants after-the-fact. It effectively makes the New Jersey lawsuit go away, and good luck ever undoing those grants anyway.
DOC also has several hundred thousand options now. I forget the exact amount.
True, FBG. Seems like a pretty good bet that they are hiring a new Alliance director for a specific reason.
Good point, Blue. A shelf is necessary for ADXS's anti-takeover plan that the board adopted.
Oak, as Dew noted, it is advantageous to a company to have the ability to issue new shares by already having a shelf in place. That is why virtually every young biotech does this. Having the ability to access cash quickly if necessary is the wise policy.
Omnivore, the tutes could clearly make that happen if they really wanted to (i.e., secure board seats). The rest of us have no easy way of accomplishing it. We really have no choice but to accept the nominees, aside from simply casting irrelevant, token "nay" votes. Hey Dew, if you're reading this, any clue what the board election voting structure is, in terms of percentages, etc.? Cumulative, non-cumulative, etc.?
A shelf registration is not an offering. It merely pre-registers shares with the SEC. All clinical bios maintain large ones just in case.
I think the only part of the shelf used was in August for Amgen and Fidelity. Fidelity got 2.2 million. Amgen got 3 million.
They also used up some of the prior shelf.
It's easy to lose money on a fake long position.
Volume has almost completely dried up. The algos are showing a diminishing return because there are no "real" shares available to try to steal in this range. It's been largely daytraders competing with each other. Now what? Refuse to allow it to run but can't shakeout by shorting anymore either, or induce short selling, so the most they can do is keep it below technical levels. A conundrum. So we just sit here treading water.
100 share trades constitute big blocks to these algo traders. Typical trade is more like 39 shares. lol
AZN needs to bolster its pipeline big time. And it has a huge hoard of cash to do it with.
Gold, it's not clear why Sectoral even filed a 13G with only 1.8% of outstanding shares. A mystery.
Since you bring that up, Hovacre, the favorable ADXS GOG data comparison to Avastin is actually understated because the GOG subject patients had extremely advanced disease. I understand it was not a direct comparison study, but ADXS's numbers were so favorable in an indirect comparison that its superiority seems highly likely. Not to mention the favorable safety profile.
Oak, today's short data actually shows it down another couple of hundred k shares from that number.
I think you're right, Blue. ADRO sold away alot of its equity in the indications, and its stock benefited. However, the flip side of the coin is that ADXS has retained its equity thus far, which actually increases it long term intrinsic value, not diminishes it. This highlights the short-sighted mentality of the market. But now ADXS is in a great position to cash in big time, because it will get top dollar for licenses.
Sure, I totally agree that DOC should be greedy and demand proper value for a licensing deal for AXAL, which value is BIG. What I meant is that he should not try to wait too long to do it. There is plenty of value there right now, so take it. Validate the entire platform and take future dilution out of play. We have plenty of additional indications to monetize later. Take the sure thing now, partially de-risk, and let it all play out.
I guess I'll never understand why you think anyone cares that management gives itself stock options, etc., and why that would cause a ridiculously-low valuation. It may be unfair but it has no material effect on the value of the company. It's a relative pittance, and not exactly abnormal in corporate America. We'll have to agree to disagree. The only issue, in my opinion, that could be having some negative effect--although not to the extent that it makes the current valuation remotely accurate--is the lack of a "real" BP deal for a more advanced product, such as AXAL. If I had to fault management for anything it would be that. NEO was a great deal, but its development is in very early stages. Although the longer they wait on AXAL, prostate, head and neck etc., the more lucrative. That is the trade off. But it is time. They should not get too greedy, particularly with the distinct possibility of fast movement in the EU approval process.
With all due respect, FBG, the clinical development program IS the business plan. The share price is the result of a concerted manipulation scheme enabled by a still weak biotech market, and nothing else.
Looks like the robots took a snow day. A very nice blizzard in progress.
No worries. Thanks for keeping an eye out.
Wait, how many shares did Amgen buy in August?
Is there any reason that patients cannot have already had chemo/radiation by the time that they show up at ADXS's door? Seems like an odd process. "Go try chemo for a few months, which probably won't work. Maybe then we will give you something that does actually work."
Sure thing, Dawson. There are virtually no "investor" shares trading hands. It is nearly all just daytraders trying to scalp .25 every day and algorithms trading the same shares back and forth to each other.
All part of the plan, Maple. The intent is to bore you out of your shares, which is why they have it suppressed and trapped in a range.
I'm with you, Xena. All true.