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You win.
The 2 year extension doesn't carry as much weight with me as it does with others. It's the whole correlation/causation thing.
All the patients and probably most of the caregivers are new to this disease and it's progression. A "good day" could easily be attributed to the drug. I understand some of the anecdotal evidence sounds like much more than just a good day but I'm reminded of the old saying "you shouldn't fool yourself and you're the easiest one to fool". These people are desperate for help and humans are known for believing what suits them.
The Australian government did well to ok the extension. Since no apparent harm was being done, and no alternative is available, it was the compassionate thing to do. Hats off(again)to our Australian friends.
Having said all this, and lest you think me a short, I am long AVXL. ANY stabilization or improvement in the patients is wonderful and marketable.
It's not your talking about your buying and selling I take issue with.
To hear you tell it your a veritable font of investment wisdom.
Apri could have easily outperformed PLNR after you acted. And APRI could easily outperform your next purchase.
I would suggest you read the book "fooled by randomness" if you have the time. Your good fortune is nothing more then that.
It is of course your right to believe what you wish, but to make us listen to it is insufferable.
I think buying shares in soapbox.com would be a good fit for you. This isn't the first time you stopped by to grace us with your wisdom.
Hats off to Value, who exited this dog some time ago.
You've said many, often conflicting things about the company.
If you can't forecast accurately, forecast often,the sage advice goes.
LOL. Thanks, but could you please tell me what LT and A/S mean?
Is there a poison pill to prevent any takeover attempts?
And this is why we really have no right to complain.
If any other company whose shares I owned pulled this without a lengthy and compelling explanation I would have sold in a heartbeat. But I/we did not. Our current predicament rests squarely on our shoulders.
Perhaps one would be well advised to avoid small biotechs with a sexy story. Since I currently own shares of AVXL I have obviously have learned nothing.
Long termers in a small biotech have no one to blame but themselves.
I would think someone initiating a position at .80 would do well going forward. Sarissa intends to make money on this.
Because prior to the last few days casinokid would interject some bold silly statement and would be ignored by all but the extremely frustrated. Now suddenly he's the voice of reason.
P.S. You said no more negativity so you are NOT a man of your word.
I see some of you are now conversing with casinokid, a well-know short.
I guess Moses has gone up the mountain for more tablets.
I've heard you go on and on and on about how Fis. is going be the new heavyweight champion of the testosterone drug world. And now you tell me a partnership would be a hail mary event. Do you read what you write?
I agree.
But when I mention I'd best head for the hills if if they do a private placement at these levels you infer my logic is somehow unsound. It seems to me if this tiger has still not changed it's stripes one would be ill advised to stick around. There are around 8000 listed stocks in the U.S. You can't find a little less dirty sandbox to play in?
The Michael J. Fox Foundation does excellent dd.
I own another stock that has received several grants from them(CYNA). As part of their process the Michael J. Fox Foundation own scientists look over the data, AND THEN, they have an independent firm look at the data. The Michael J. Fox Foundation puts a high priority on making sure the money they collect goes to the right places. AVXL quite obviously cleared the bar.
Thanks all.
Well written hooperg83.
I think something people fail to remember is that, like Jim Cramer, Feuerstein is an entertainer. Since 99.5% of AZ trials fail, the smart money labels it a loser. Great odds of looking brilliant with very little effort.
Question. With a sudden influx of money couldn't RPRX begin a new phase 3 trial and still beat us to the finish line?
Then I'm afraid I'm a bit lost.
You believe Fib.is the real deal and the company is hellbent on working hand in hand with the FDA to run great trials.
I'm guessing you agree with me that Sarrisa will not allow the trials to be delayed one day for lack of money.
So why would you wait for the share price to drop below a buck when
the possibility exists that I am right and a deal is struck and the share price never looks back?
If you're correct than the money will be available as long as Fib.
remains viable.
Well, we'll find out sooner rather than later. Mom always said I was smarter than you but you never know.
As to the longer term holders,that has always baffled me. In a moment of solidarity a year or two ago a number of them posted their share count and average price. The opportunity cost has been huge.
I'm unconcerned about the current share price.
As I mentioned in a previous post I'm pleased with the progress Pascoe has made. I have no reason to believe dilution is forthcoming and in fact I think it's possible the latest dilution with Sarrisa was repugnant albeit necessary.
I believe the company is currently in partnering talks for something in our pipeline. Fib,Rayva,Vitaros U.S.,(Femprox?) even the complete rights to Vitaros in one of Vitaros's current markets.
If there isn't competition for one of them perhaps a competition is being created across products(i.e. if you don't pony up for Vitaros U.S. we'll go with Fib. partner and your chance may be gone forever.)
If I'm wrong and they do dilute at these levels I think I would be best served to head for for the exits.
Tsk tsk SB. And you said no more negativity. You have the resolve of a small child.
I give Pascoe an A.
-Vitaros is now on the market in numerous countries with more to come.
- Vitaros U.S.A. is now in our hands. NO ONE thought this possible a short while back even though Pascoe referred to it numerous times.
--RTD device will be here soon. This is big and refrigerated version will soon be ancient history.
- Femprox is shelved and probably should be for now. If no partner came forward than none should have.
- Old useless management has been replaced with higher quality people.
- Rayva and Fib. trials have started. I'm sure there will be much complaining on this board that all future trials and NDA's will not have happened fast enough either.
- The company believes they have found a path forward with Vitros that involves no new trials. If successful, and I'm hopeful, this shaves a lot of time off the process.
- A big, well respected fund is on board and has provided cash recently.
- Fib. is now the only game in town. This will not go unnoticed.
The only thing Pascoe hasn't done is immediately address whatever problem woke up SB in a cold sweat this morning.
Bodes poorly for femprox.
http://www.businessinsider.com/only-227-prescriptions-written-for-addyi-2015-11
Link to AVXL scientific advisors.
http://www.anavex.com/about-us/scientific_advisors/
My point exactly. I'm not saying the drug works. I'm saying there will be much speculation in the interim.
Just doubled down. There's no way you can convince me this isn't going up. Markets are speculative.
I wasn't aware a nda was ever filed. That must have been quite some time ago. I assumed we would be contacting the FDA and getting guidance for phase 3 trials and the like. This pathway is very exciting.
Between the 4:30 and 5:00 minute mark did I hear in late 2016 APRI is going to resubmit a nda for Vitaros in the U.S.?
In BI Research, a newsletter I subscribe to, it said the lead investigator remarked something like" it's the most remarkable thing I've ever seen". Is he a company man or an independent guy?
I initiated a position and am buying more at these levels.
Denner no doubt examined the company with a fine tooth comb and was well aware of the financial situation.
The company has done nothing out of the ordinary and certainly nothing negative since he initiated his position. So Denner still should happy with his position. I'm with him.
I think everyone has been very consistent on this board with the exception of one individual. I won't mention his name nor the medical condition I believe he suffers from as this has caused my posts to be deleted in the past.
Examples of his posts are: "BUY! BUY! BUY!" followed shortly by " the company should downsize to 4 or 5 individuals and just live off European Vitaros revenues" followed by "Pascoe is brilliant for bringing Mr. Morton on board" followed by " Anything less than their heads on a platter is unacceptable".
I believe he remains because this is a captive audience for his rants.
It really puzzles me that sensible individuals like Value and Eicoman choose to interact him him and thereby give him credibility.
I would love to hear what Charlie Munger (a man whose thought processes I greatly admire) would say after reading a compilation of this individuals posts.
Seems a bit one-sided to me.
You take all the risk and spend 25 mllion to maybe get it approved and then I'll give you the 25 and throw scraps back to you.
Sure, it could be worth 50 million annually one day or maybe Allergan just sits on it for any number of reasons(think Abbott).
Meanwhile, the dilution train makes the first of several stops (considering all they have on their plate).
This company is a one trick pony and needs to be acquired BEFORE the phase 3 trial gets too far along. Way too many things could go wrong( like after a few weeks the buffering agent isn't enough and irritation develops). Anything like that and it's all worth zilch. I believe the company (hopefully on the advice of someone knowledgeable in these things)has decided to swell itself up like a pufferfish and get some company to act now out of fear the deal will cost too much later.
Well put. summarizes my thought exactly.
I believe the recent private placement is a positive in 2 ways:
1) The company has previously stated they had enough cash to see it through the NDA filing. I think potential suitors figure let the company do all the heavy lifting now, and later, having few options, could be bought on the cheap. Now, with the new cash infusion the company has options( including contracting a manufacturing facility and beginning the building of a sales rep force) at that point in time. This should make potential suitors think twice about delaying.
2) The story the company has been selling all along is validated.
The next 2 years are the home stretch and some very smart money just said "yeah", everything is as it seems and we smell money in the near turn.- Enjoy the ride.
I thought the midday reversal on Friday was pretty impressive.