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10bagger: maybe the Canadian markets are cleaner then they used to be, but Squeaky Clean... not a chance.
Silver Star Energy SVSE was the product of a Canadian Boiler Room operator. Many sleezeball promoters use Canadian Pump & dump operations.
No financial markets get the "Squeaky Clean" seal of approval.
len: At what point do you consider that you are correct. If you call a downturn or bubble 2 years before it happens is that correct. Do you have to call it 1 year ahead or 3 years? I am not at all sure that
You can propagate theories until you are blue in the face, until the Kansas frost enters through your unheated home and numbs your typing fingers, it does not make them true. What happens to the millions of homeowners in this country is still a small part of the world. Your macro view means nothing to people who have nothing, it does not make your view any less or more important. Most of the worlds population would be thrilled to be living in a house of 2500 square feet with an upside down mortgage.
My point here is that you have been crying wolf for awhile and eventually you will be right, but so what? How are you helping the "millions of people" you talk about? Are you giving seminars, writing articles, books that will be read and acted upon by the millions? Maybe keeping everyones head in the sand would keep real estate prices high and the economy strong. Increase in asset values usually have a correction phase before they move higher.
I will continue to thrive in my Micro view . . . ultimately that is what feeds my family. I assume you care about what feeds your family as well, or is that also irrelevant?
len: The "head in the sand" comment would hardly apply to me. It would seem that someone who was in the situation you describe, such as a speculator or highly leveraged, and in denial would fit "head in the sand".
You just love to sling those little barbs at people thinking they make your point better. It does not work well with me. If my head is in the sand, it's a far better place then having it shot with birdshot! LOL
One could say that you "have your feet stuck in mud" when it comes to real estate ownership. Of course I would never say that. <g>
Lentinman: Here is why I think real estate is different.
1. You can't watch the price of your home fall from minute to minute. You don't wake up the next morning and see your house gap down 25K. It tends to slowly erode and people who have no need to move don't sell.
2. It is not easy to sell like stocks. Big commissions and long lead times to sell. Especially in a bad market, sales can take 1 year or longer even with price reductions.
3. Some people will always trade up, even in a down market, your house my drop in value, so will the one you lust after.
4. It's your home. And if it's your second home, most of the same problems exist.
I agree with the author and obviously not you that renting is not a good deal usually.
If my house went down 25% in value tomorrow, I would not be happy but I would still have a substantial free and clear asset that I feel would eventually recover. In my case I have no job to worry about or employer who could force me to move. Which of course would help your side of the arguement in most peoples case.
If I could easily trade the housing market I would, so I suspect would you.
http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/millionaire/2585
An interesting article, awaiting a Lentinman rebuttal!
Are you talkin to me? LOL
Forget insider buying, never going to happen. At least the old man rarely sells any. It would seem that the government business has been too low margin to get the real profitability that we seek. That is why they did the Clarion acquisition so they could offer more product with greater margins. It will be a matter of waiting.
However, as in the past, when they do private placements... lo and behold the stock amazingly runs a lot higher. Dare I say, pump and dump. I would expect that to happen once again. Private investors do not normally salivate over the prospects of investing in a low float low margin company unless they know something is going to shake the stock up.
Hope I am correct.. check the charts against the prior PP's
We don't know all the facts of the "shooting", I am sure they will all be smoothed out to make everything OK. LOL
I don't like hunting, especially with a lame duck.
UPRO: Essentially this "shell" has become a "blank check" deal looking for an acquisition. No buying going on. It is a roll of the dice, but current owners have put $500K into acquiring this recently. Fully reporting OTCBB stock.
Zen:
options go on schedule D. i trade mostly in tax deferred accounts so i will pay uncle sam down the road.
SSKILLZ1: You said the following,
-I have never voted, nor do I intend to.
I don't know where to begin ...
Here is a scenario for you:
20 years from now China decides that the USA is an evil empire. They attack and put President Jenna Bush on trial for crimes against fashion, not wearing made in China clothes.
They help Americans set up a new constitution and demand that we include some communist ideals in it. Get rid of the In God we Trust crap from our mantra.
Do they have the right to do all that? I mean they believe it is correct. Seems ok based upon what we think is correct for IRAQ.
Doubt it could ever happen.
March 1, 2006 5pm ... my birthday, has to be it!
grim & bobwins: Interactive Brokers, can you use them to naked short OTCBB stocks? Assuming of course that you had a canadian or other non US address?
Remember how big a deal the government was making about not needing to sell 30 year treasuries. No more worries, Georgie & Company fixed that problem...
30-Year Bond Sold for 1st Time in 5 Years
Thursday February 9, 1:26 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Treasury Department Sells 30-Year Bonds for the First Time in Five Years
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The 30-year Treasury bond made a long-awaited return on Thursday to the delight of bond investors and a cash-strapped federal government.
The Treasury Department sold $14 billion of the bonds with a yield of 4.53 percent.
It marked the first sale of 30-year bonds since 2001 when they were discontinued in an era when the government was running large budget surpluses.
But now with the return of record deficits, the government has reintroduced the bonds, hoping to lock in interest payments at low rates for a longer period.
Private economists said that investors such as insurance companies and pension funds would benefit from being able to obtain a guaranteed rate of return over three decades while it will help the federal government at a time when it is facing record borrowing needs.
The Bush administration said Monday that it expects the deficit for the current year to hit an all-time high in dollar terms of $423 billion.
Treasury Department spokeswoman Brookly McLaughlin said the department was pleased with the results of the first auction.
"The issuance of the 30-year bond will benefit investors, the Treasury and the American taxpayer," she said.
It's supposed to be Death TO Taxes, that GWB don't know sheet.
Checked out Zillow.com , busy as can be due to the WSJ article. It estimated my home price as almost 200K more than I paid for it 8 months ago.
Don't think so!
lentinman: Brinker: Keep in mind that he has his own formula that he seems to stick to. You may be right and I totally agree with the upside versus the downside differential that you cite. However he has also stated that upon reaching mid 1300's he would reevaluate at that time.
Having said all that, I have been slowly liquidating my portfolio and am mostly out of the hard to liquidate VM positions that I had. Also sold 2/3rds of my QQQQ position and will most likely lighten up on other things shortly.
In a sick way I kind of look forward to being on the short side and making money.
"I can feel the quality of posts increasing already."
Right, your just hoping you get some support for your views. Quality has nothing to do with it.
Lazarus/Bigpike: Tax Certiorari as described below is the process of reducing your assessed values. It happens all the time and shrewd property owners, especially commercial are always in search of lower taxes. When I was in the accounting biz, clients would have us prepare back up materials to support the claims they made to reduce commercial taxes. They always won.
Real estate tax certiorari is the legal process by which a property owner can challenge the real estate tax assessment on a given property in attempt to reduce the property’s assessment and real estate taxes. Although many real estate developers, owners and managers in New York City are familiar with real estate tax certiorari proceedings, not all take advantage of the opportunity afforded by this legal process which is usually handled by our firm on a contingency basis. Our attorneys have written extensively and have lectured publicly on real estate tax certiorari and exemption matters.
Brinkers newsletter as of today: Still bullish and thinks S& P will hit at least 1350.
FWIW, bought SPY back once again.
OTC: I don't recall ever attacking you personally. It would seem that you feel it necessary to do so to me. If you desire to play that game, stick with it as it suits you. I will stay out of your way.
Sincerely,
Your Enemy
YOu go on pretending that she is some grieving mother that deserves our sympathy.
You sound just like her by the way so no wonder you would support her.
Self Loathing Anti USA bull shit.
I have said it a million times before and i'll say it again.
In order for us to defeat the enemy abroa we must first defeat the enemy within.
It is so unfortunate that so many have been manipulated into becoming the enemy by a lieing propagandizing Media!
>When she said Bush was 10 X worse then Osama Bin Laden, I said, "Oh that explains it, she a friggin Liberal".<<
In December, Bush estimated that 30,000 Iraqis have died since the beginning of combat in March 2003. "On Sept. 11," Sheehan said, "3,000 Americans were killed, so does that make George Bush 10 times the bigger terrorist than Osama bin Laden?"
BIG difference between what you said and what the quote was. If I was a Clintonian wordsmith I could get out of jail free with the difference. When you quote someone you should cut and paste.
However, I respect anyone who has the GUTS to take on the leadership of this country with a protest like she has done. She accomplished exactly what she wanted to at the SOTU. Had she not worn that shirt, then most likely she would have had many opportunities to frown and react to the cameras panning on her during the speech. Either way she comes out looking like what she wants. The hurt, greiving mother of a dead US soldier that died for NOTHING. For a foray into nation building, democracy building that this BS president claimed he wanted nothing to do with. Well now he has Islamic religious fanatics being Democratically elected and he can't do Sh*t about it.
I wish that Cindy Sheehan would run for president, it would be alot better than Hillary
SPY: Went back into SPY today for a trade, maybe a longer hold if I am a HOG.
"Federal funding for research and development in energy efficiency declined 14 percent on an inflation-adjusted basis since 2002. Among the federally sponsored projects is the president's Freedom Car hydrogen vehicle program, according to the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy"
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/02/business/assess.php
OTC/ State of the Onion: That man makes me cry like I am slicing an onion. I don't believe a word out of his mouth. The oilman & vp of oil, they now want to do alternative energy. Never happen with those two guys in charge and beholden to the Big Oil Companies.
3 more years, 3 more years, 3 more years .. and then I will be happy to see a True Fiscal Conservative or a Democrat in office. Either way would be better.
ROTFL: Awesome answer, you are a fast learner.
JOB: I was rather surprised that JOB did not sell off more than it did. Any thoughts on putting some away for next quarter, or is this dead money?
TIA
ThanksLouie, did you read not that it invalidates your opinion
I respect your opinion as much as anyone else on IHUB, never met face to face with anybody. I was trying to get other peoples opinions on bear funds.
You stated that you throw money at something, I read what is written and respond to YOUR words. If you had said "careful analysis leads me to believe that investing in the international market based upon ....." or something like that then I would have approached you differently.
Yeah, use of the language is important for perception sake. I asked the readers of this board, you responded as it is your board and I wanted to hear what you, the guy who is involved in the market on a day to day basis as part of your job thinks.
I don't know **** about the market, as a former Financial/General/Options principal of several brokerage firms and business owner I am just a rube.
You btw don't know my age, and I have a nephew of mine who is younger than you and has great business sense and will most likely be a multi millionaire from his efforts, so I respect all opinions, no matter what age.
Bonds have not acted historically in recent years and I have no reason to rely on them doing so in the next few years. Bear funds with 2X inverse to the NASDAQ will likely kill bond performance in a Bear.
To sum it all up... Sorry if you are offended, you should not have been by my comments. Since you are in the retail business I can understand your reluctance to get all warm and fuzzy about no loads, been there and done that as well.
ThanksLouie, but no thanks on the "That's where I'd throw my money" style of investing.
According to your profile you are a youngster, not that it invalidates your opinion, just that you have more time to recoup loss on your portfolio. I am many years removed from chasing hot markets and throwing my money at things.
I stand by waiting now for the right time to short the US market, slowly selling out of long profitable positions.
NOW, if you thought we would be in a bear market starting next week, what would you do? That was the intent of my original question.
According to WSJ today, banks are aggressively pushing conversions to fixed rate mortgages from ARMS as a way to make more money for the banks.
Look out
"I wouldn't go with a bear mutual fund. I don't like them"
What would you do for a bear market position?
TIA
ThanksLouie: There is one other fund that is a bear Nasdaq fund that I know of. However the 2 that I mentioned leverage themselves into a 2 to 1 inverse relationship. So if I am really bearish I would get twice the bang for the buck. I have been itching to pull the trigger for over a year and so far nothing doing. Making money on the short side of the market is more satisfying than the long side. At cocktail parties everyone is crying in their beers about the stock losses and they all think you are full of **** when you tell them you are doing very well, thanks.
99dan: Yes I think the bull will end this year. However I am not ready to short yet. I am a "Brinker-Head or Brinkerite" and will wait until he goes negative on the market. I have been taking profits recently and leaving the cash in 4% money markets for the time being.
Frankly I am amazed that the market is still up as high as it is. GAS/GOLD/IRAQ/IRAN/PLO-Hamas Israel/BUSH, etc. those are some of the reasons that we are on borrowed time.
edited: Figured it out as soon as I posted it. Left it here anyway to remind me of a DUH moment!
Completely off any topic previously discussed. I long ago forget my basic Algebra since I never used it. My son has a math problem which he solved correctly but the teacher told him he should look for other ways to solve it. If anyone (LEN) can help out it would be great.
"The Monsters of Muzz" opened on Monday. The first day there were 25 people who saw the movie. Word got out and on the second day 17 more people came than on the first day, so that 67 people had seen the movie after the second day. On the third day 59 people came, 17 more than on the second day. If each day 17 more people saw the movie than the day before, on what day would 500 people have seen the movie?
He basically started with 25 and then kept adding 17 until he got to the 7th day. How about a simple formula for it?
I think I hate school even more as a parent. LOL
USPIX vs. RYVNX : Any thoughts on which of these fund families is better? They both have the same style and very similar performance, so I am deciding between the 2 based on fund family.
TIA
ps- will hopefully buy them near a market top!
OT OT OT Football: Bobwins you have me to thank for the Seahawks.
First year I watched football in NY, 1969 Jets Win
After a long drought I moved to San Francisco in the late 80's and the Niners went on a wild ride of winning!
When they started to decline I moved to Florida and Tampa Bay almost immediately decided to win it all.
So here I am in the Pacific Northwest for 7 months and the nearest team breaks with the ineptitude and goes to the big game.
I have a better record in this than investing. I am thinking of asking the Jets to pay me to move back to NY.
bbotcs: You are right about it being good to take a profit. Bought them March 2003, so it was a big profit, but human nature being what it is, I want every last drop of profit. Will buy them back on any correction, which usually indicates a steep fall afterwards. LOL
California wine vs. Kansas wine? Is that fair?
As they said in "Barney Miller" does that go good with Possum?
Seriously, how is Kansas wine?
Sold some of my SPY at the end of the day today. Look for huge run Monday to make me feel really bad!