full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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Careful, if it doesn't move soon, you will be called a false profit.
Excellent retort, and thanks for your detailed responses.
'peeker
Compare your 2010 portfolio performance to some highly successful stock/metals funds/ETFs:
The year’s best fund performance among non-leveraged diversified stock funds was by Dynamic U.S. Growth Fund; DWUGX soared 52%.
Sibling Dynamic Gold & Precious Metals Fund had the best results of all — DWGOX was up 71% .
The list of top exchange-traded funds meanwhile, was a Who’s Who of metals- and commodities-sector luminaries:
iShares Silver Trust SLV was up 80%.
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF GDXJ was up 64%,
ProShares Ultra Basic Materials UYM gained 57%.
The biggest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares GLD added about 28%.
The above details were excerpted from:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-fund-investors-bank-on-growth-in-2011-2010-12-31?pagenumber=1
More 2010 performance comparisons:
The year’s best fund performance among non-leveraged diversified stock funds was by Dynamic U.S. Growth Fund; DWUGX soared 52%.
Sibling Dynamic Gold & Precious Metals Fund had the best results of all — DWGOX was up 71% .
The list of top exchange-traded funds meanwhile, was a Who’s Who of metals- and commodities-sector luminaries:
iShares Silver Trust SLV was up 80%.
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF GDXJ was up 64%,
ProShares Ultra Basic Materials UYM gained 57%.
The biggest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares GLD added about 28%.
The above details were excerpted from:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-fund-investors-bank-on-growth-in-2011-2010-12-31?pagenumber=1
Stockpeeker WAG: Dow 12345.67 Oil 88.88 Gold 1357.91
In 2010, each "major" US stock index returned double-digit gains, as summarized below:
The Dow gained 1,149.46 points, or 11 percent. With dividends, its total return rose to 13.99 percent.
The S&P 500 index gained 142.54 points, or 12.8 percent. Including dividends, its total return came to 15.1 percent.
The Nasdaq index gained 383.72, or 16.9 percent, to close at 2,652.87. After dividends, its total return came to 18 percent.
______________________________________________________________
IMHO, it's always a good idea to compare your personal performance against performance of the major US stock indexes. Your "value added" can be estimated based on how much the performance of your portfolio (including all cash, not just the stocks you played with) exceeded the performance of the major indexes.
OK, kzetmeir, your answer to a utube clip was nothing more than a generally optimistic statement.
Exactly what "significant progress in 2011" do you expect?
All who read this board would like to regain our confidence in the CEO, but his record of executing on prior promises of "significant progress" has been poor.
Again, my question to you is this:
Exactly what "significant progress in 2011" do you expect, and more importantly, why do you think this "significant progress" will occur?
Regards,
'peeker
IMHO, the best thing mgt can do is complete merger of TRGD into TARM, then sell the farm (I mean TARM).
At this point I have to believe that the CEO, Mr. Bisquick, wants to implement an exit strategy that allows him to ca$h out all the stock he can put in his name, then be rid of the whole damn thing.
'peeker (wishing all YE MERRY & MANLY MEN a great 2011)
OT: Auld Lang Syne (Scottish twang, by Tannehill Weavers)
http://www.reverbnation.com/artist/song_details/2348951
(worth a listen, though you'll not recognize it as the same song)
Wi$hing YE all the very be$t in 2011.
'peeker
OK, so financials have been filed thru Q1 2010 now, right?
... but I don't mean to give credit or discredit the auditors ... just trying to verify where filings are as of this minute.
... hmmm ... I wonder what the mgt would think shareholders should think at this point ... don't worry, be happy?
STVI coming back down ...
Article out today looks at the stock price catalyst (Bloomberg article) and comparison to reality.
http://ryanmcraver.com/2010/12/30/snap-interactive-worth-80m/
MMT.v/MAUXF.pk: Mart Resources .... oops! Correcting with oil. Anyone have news on when UMU-7 spuds, or when UMU-6 gets hooked to the pipeline, or when Mart begins work on their own pipeline?
Nigeria is a tough place to do business, so hiccups (and rebels with guns) will occur.
'peeker
GORO bullish put/call ratio. Following article lists 15 gold stocks with good put/call ratios (includes our fave GORO):
http://seekingalpha.com/article/244026-top-15-gold-mining-stocks-with-bullish-options-sentiment?source=email_watchlist
09:30 QXM (play on XING): I bought some this AM at $4.35 based on simple math and assuming XING buyout of QXM goes thru.
The strength in QXM (+7.6%) following XING's +21% increase in price is most likely related to the prior takeover offer by XING to QXM, in which XING proposed to issue 1.9 shares of its common stock plus US$0.80 in cash per share to shareholders of QXM. XING noted on 12/10 that the Special Committee of QXM has not yet indicated whether it will recommend that the minority shareholders accept the proposed offer. In addition, QXM is seeking a new financial advisor in connection with the Special Committee's evaluation of the proposed acquisition. On 12/21, QXM's board approved the removal of David Li as QXM's CEO.
IAE.v/IACAF.pk: DigiTech, we finally got that nice move on Ithaca yesterday with news of their improved flow after well workover on one well, with other workovers to follow.
Thanks for convincing me to stay with IAE.v when I thought there was no more news that would take it higher til late 2012. Their incremental improvements from well workovers are meaningful on their 50% owned wells, so they could move up a little on each well as workovers are completed. Of course the big price move is yet to come in late 2012 to 2013.
'peeker
JADA stopped shipping to the two large customers who were delinquent in paying them. That's probably the largest reason for that big drop in revenues during Q3. Not clear how much is owed to JADA, but when you have to stop shipping to the bigger customers (cuz they aren't paying for the product), that could be a nasty showstopper.
One has to wonder whether jade's use in construction is not as popular now as in the past.
Thanks, nelson1234 and timhyma, for DAAT feedback. I'll keep it in the corral "til Q4 earnings", as that's good advice. Good point about the increased shipping costs to US, which puts pressure on margins.
Good luck to all in 2011.
'peeker
Thanks for taking time to list the China stocks down in 2010 that may be good ideas for 2011.
DAAT dog don't hunt. I've held this stock for a long time, seems like forever, but am now thinking of selling it in January.
It seems the mgt of DAAT are content just working for Walmart and drawing their salary. Do they wear the blue vests?
Can anyone say whether there is any catalyst (new product, new customer, new anything?) on the horizon?
'peeker
DAAT dog don't hunt. I've held this stock for a long time, seems like forever, but am now thinking of selling it in January.
It seems the mgt of DAAT are content just working for Walmart and drawing their salary.
Can anyone say whether there is any catalyst (new product, new customer, new anything?) on the horizon?
'peeker
tiesto, that was a great move to buy the REE calls. Congratulations! REE now up 24% today.
Saw the following on Briefing.com at 08:14 this morning:
Rare earth metal names getting early boost following reports that China is cutting rare earth export quotas: REE +7.0%, SHZ +5.5%, AVL +4.1%, MCP +2.5%.
OT: Hank you were right about STVI, that is, you shuddna sold at .50 afterall. Hit .98 a few minutes ago before backing down to .88 again.
09:36 GU: Gushan Environmental Energy soaring 30% higher in early trade; Hearing related to reports that China plans to exempt biodiesel consumption tax (5.22 +1.38)
http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20101225-254769.html
Why are Wade's whining posts objectionable? Wade has decided that his whining helps his stocks, which is reinforcement for more whining. In other words he's not really whining; he's pitching the stocks he likes and hoping others will buy it to keep it up. It's like guerilla marketing where the goal is to hide the sales pitch but make you buy.
I have no doubt Wade believes in the stocks he recommends (whines about regularly), but IMHO stating rationale (eg. DD) for why a stock should go up is more forthright than whining.
One other point: Wade does make his favorites known regularly, which is very useful and allows those who follow his posts to watch and occasionally buy (typically making money, as most of Wade's stocks have done). I have to say I've made money on Wade's stocks more often than I've lost on them. In fact one thing I wish we did more frequently is to post our favorites so it's easy to see who likes what. The quarterly pick6 games are not as useful as a list of what we actually OWN.
Last point: Why do VMC regulars dislike whining so much? They get enough from the wife and kids.
Much love to all your grinches this Christmas!!!
'peeker
OGC.v production update shows increased production costs (probably higher than expected) in 2011-12 as they expand NZ operations, then Didipio in Philippines will bring costs back down toward $400/oz when it comes online in 2013 (at the earliest, but these things always take more time and money than originally planned).
Down in Australia early as the rising production costs could limit upside on the price of stock for a couple of years.
'peeker Clause
AUMN: Golden Minerals (tarnishing) showing lackluster volume and price action lately. Anyone know what the next catalyst will be? If I recall correctly, they've got lots of cores being analyzed currently, and they will do resource update for El Aquila shortly thereafter.
Regards to all grinches,
'peeker
It would be nice to see the TRGD board closed due to merger with TARM, and lack of appreciation (by any measure).
'peeker
ps> This was not my worst investment ever, but it's been a "big loser" in any case. As for management integrity, it has been at the bottom of the barrel.
IAE.v had a strong day today after mgt announced options being awarded. It was a surprise to see Ithaca take off.
Does anyone know if something else (unannounced?) is the catalyst for the strong move in Ithaca?
I have a lot of this stock but see no major news coming short-term, so am thinking of lightening up now to build cash before the new year. To me Ithaca looks like a better stock for 2012 than 2011 just based on projects in the pipeline and estimated production rates (per the recent plan they PR'd recently).
Thanks in advance for any ideas about what will take Ithaca higher or lower short-term.
AUMN: Positive view expressed by Alka Singh:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/242797-interview-precious-metals-expert-alka-singh-talks-gold-silver?source=yahoo
Excerpt:
AS: Yes. My favorite silver companies are Hecla Mining Co. (HL) and Golden Minerals Company (AUMN). Golden Minerals is the one I just visited in Argentina, and I think that their El Quevar project is very interesting and has a lot of potential upside. The company's market cap is still under $400 million, and I think it has a long way to go. It is still drilling right now, and all the labs around the world are backlogged. It's already drilled 10 holes on the Carmen prospect and has been waiting for assays for roughly two weeks now. So, the investment thesis on Golden Minerals is this: The Yaxtché zone contains 100% of the company's resources, which is roughly 60.5 Moz. silver. Now based on recent drilling, the geologists on site believe they have two other sub-parallel zones to Yaxtché. One is the Carmen target and the other is Mani (500 m south of Yaxtché). They are parallel to Yaxtché, and if the geologists can prove they are sub-parallel veins to Yaxtché, the resource estimate could even triple. Right now, the company is completing a feasibility study on El Quevar. Once that's reported, we can model the mine very easily. We can build a financial model of the mine that will make us even more confident in the number of ounces, as well as the production and cost numbers. I see the market cap easily doubling once that happens.
TGR: How large can this Yaxtché deposit be?
AS: If the sub-parallel zones are as big as the Yaxtché, about 180 Mozs. of silver. Even if the zones turn out to be smaller, sub-parallel zones, I think Golden Minerals' El Quevar can easily come up with more than 100 Moz of silver.
AUMN and GORO added to S&P/TSX GLOBAL MINING INDEX -
DECEMBER 2010 - QUARTERLY REVIEW
ADDITIONS
Issue Name Symbol Exchange
Augusta Resource Corporation AZC TSX
Avalon Rare Metals Inc. AVL TSX
Baja Mining Corp. BAJ TSX
Breakwater Resources Ltd. BWR TSX
Cline Mining Corporation CMK TSX
Cloud Peak Energy Inc. CLD NYSE
Copper Mountain Mining Corporation CUM TSX
Crocodile Gold Corp. CRK TSX
ECU Silver Mining Inc. ECU TSX
Endeavour Silver Corp. EDR TSX
Gold Resources Corp. GORO AMEX
Golden Minerals Company AUM TSX
Intrepid Mines Limited IAU TSX
Keegan Resources Inc. KGN TSX
MAG Silver Corp. MAG TSX
Minera Andes Inc. MAI TSX
Platinum Group Metals Ltd. PTM TSX
Sabina Gold & Silver Corp. SBB TSX
Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd. SUE TSX
UEX Corporation UEX TSX
Uranium Energy Corp. UEC AMEX
Bad news is they've been talking about these "hush hush super deals" for about 3 months now.
CCME: Why announce a 2% dividend 5-6 months before it occurs? Maybe, just maybe, mgt is trying to use the dividend to set a floor on 2011 stock price range. Just a thought.
Glad to see the rebound late here though, as I do own some.
Almost added at $15.50 in the last 30 minutes, but that triple black Jack skull and crossbones talk scared me away (sounds like Pirates of the Caribbean).
CCME news on dividend sounded better than it was. After all was said and done, the dividend won't occur for another 5-6 months, and it won't be but 5-10% of profit (on the order of 25cents/yr, assuming they make $2.50 profit per yr), thus only about 2-3% dividend. As time passed today, it became obvious to me that the news sounded much better than the reality. Based on the steady decline today after the opening pop, I don't think I was the only one to figure out a small future dividend was not a very big deal.
KiK, good luck; ICAD probably had to do something to improve their old business model which was not growing revenues.
ICAD: Will Acquire Xoft, Inc.Advances Commitment to Oncology Care Cycle with Leading Non-Radioactive Brachytherapy Solutions for Breast and Other Cancers; Conference Call Scheduled at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time December 17
NASHUA, N.H., Dec 16, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) --
iCAD, Inc. (Nasdaq: ICAD), an industry-leading provider of advanced image analysis and workflow solutions for the early identification of cancer, announced today the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire Xoft, Inc., developer of the Axxent(R) eBx(TM) electronic brachytherapy system for approximately 8.47 million shares of iCAD common stock (representing approximately 15.6% of iCAD's outstanding common shares after closing) and approximately $1.0 million in cash, for a total consideration at closing valued at approximately $13.1 million, exclusive of any potential earn-out payments described below. The acquisition is expected to close by year-end, and brings a breakthrough isotope-free cancer treatment platform technology to iCAD.
The portable Axxent System, which delivers electronically-controlled radiation therapy directly to cancer sites with minimal radiation exposure to surrounding healthy tissue, is FDA-cleared for the treatment of early stage breast cancer, endometrial cancer and skin cancer, and for the treatment of other cancers or conditions where radiation therapy is indicated. Xoft's Axxent technology is approved for accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI), which can be delivered twice daily for five days or it can be administered immediately following the lumpectomy procedure in only a few minutes with one course of therapy, also known as Intraoperative Radiation Therapy (IORT). The alternative is a traditional course of external beam radiation which is administered five days per week over a six to seven week timeframe. Traditional external beam therapy also requires a substantial investment in a shielded "bunker" due to the radioactive components involved in the treatment.
"The acquisition of Xoft will transform iCAD from a company focused on image analysis for the early detection of cancers to a broader player in the oncology market. We believe that early detection in combination with earlier targeted intervention will provide patients and care providers with the best tools available to achieve better clinical outcomes," said Ken Ferry, President and CEO of iCAD. "Xoft's technology allows radiation therapy to be delivered immediately after a lumpectomy in the surgical suite, and is being received with great enthusiasm by radiation oncologists, breast surgeons and patients alike. This breakthrough technology will expand iCAD's reach to a new and largely untapped market. We are eager to welcome Xoft's employees, customers and patients to iCAD as we pursue a business strategy that addresses the full cycle of cancer care -- from detection and diagnosis to treatment and therapy monitoring."
The Xoft proprietary electronic brachytherapy system offers a novel method of delivering targeted radiation internally using a proprietary miniaturized X-ray source rather than a decaying radioactive isotope. Because this electronic source is non-radioactive, emits low energy X-rays and can be turned on or off as needed, it has minimal special handling or shielding requirements.
TARGIT-A, a recent landmark trial published in The Lancet in June 2010, found that a single dose of radiotherapy delivered at the time of surgery should be considered as an alternative to a six to seven week regimen of external beam radiotherapy (www.thelancet.com, published online June 5, 2010 DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60837-9).
Xoft's portable Axxent Controller, X-ray source and applicators can be utilized in hospital operating rooms and free standing radiation oncology centers. Xoft's other products include disposable balloon applicators for breast cancer treatment and applicators for additional disease indications in gynecologic and skin cancers. These applicators are used with Xoft's portable Axxent Controller. There are 58 Axxent systems installed worldwide with 56 in the U.S. including top cancer centers such as UCLA Medical Center, the Siteman Cancer Center at Barnes-Jewish Hospital, and Beth Israel Medical Center in New York City. These leading healthcare facilities and others have acquired the Xoft system to help meet the needs of the approximately 162,000 women with breast cancer in the U.S. each year who are candidates for this type of radiation therapy. While compliance rates vary widely between different populations based on proximity to care, length of treatment, and other factors, the use of Xoft's technology expands patient access to potentially life-saving treatments globally.
"Xoft was founded to improve the delivery of critical therapy and expand patient access to potentially lifesaving radiation therapy for their cancer treatment," said Michael Klein, President and CEO of Xoft. "iCAD has the leadership and processes in place to further advance this mission. We are thrilled to have the opportunity to work with iCAD to democratize the delivery of care with a cost-effective treatment option that can both increase access and facilitate greater patient compliance."
Xoft net sales in 2010 are expected to be approximately $5.5 million. For 2011, iCAD believes the pro forma revenues including Xoft to be in the range of $34 million to $38 million, and with a blended gross margin in the low to mid 70%.
Acquisition Terms
iCAD plans to acquire 100% of the outstanding stock of Xoft in exchange for approximately 8.47 million shares of iCAD common stock and approximately $1.0 million in cash to certain shareholders, for a total consideration at closing of approximately $13.1 million, based on the average of the closing sale price of the Company's common stock over the thirty trading days immediately preceding the closing date. Upon the close of the transaction, Xoft shareholders will own approximately 15.6% of iCAD's outstanding common shares. There is an additional earn-out potential for Xoft shareholders that is tied to cumulative net revenue of Xoft products over the next three years, payable at the end of that period.
The threshold for earn-out consideration begins at $50 million of cumulative revenue of Xoft products over the three year period immediately following the closing. The "targeted" earn-out consideration of $20 million will occur at $76 million of cumulative revenue of Xoft products and the maximum earn-out consideration of $40 million would be achieved at $104 million of cumulative Xoft product revenue over the three year period.
The acquisition agreement contains customary representations, warranties, covenants, indemnifications and closing conditions.
RBC Capital Markets, LLC provided investment banking services to iCAD and Blank Rome LLP provided legal services. Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati provided legal services to Xoft.
ICAD: Well, excuuuuuuuse me; moved to VMC ZCC board. I do own some for some reason, so I'm curious whether this helps their business. Shorter term, I'm particularly curious whether it will drop hard when it resumes trading.
Meanwhile, turning blue from holding my breath (and tongue) while typing ...
OGC.to looks great on 5day chart but still looks terrible on 3month chart. Like all PM stocks, it seems to be waiting to see whether the next move in Au/Ag will be up or down. I don't expect any short-term catalyst to take it higher on its own.
Still, if they do increase their mining volume in NZ (and cashflow) as planned over the next 6 months (and Didipio in Philippines doesn't get weird on us), Oceanogold should be a safe longerterm hold.
Sold my CDE and SWC today as an offering to the Silver Bear god.
Question: If all these ETFs have been buying lots of mining shares while Ag was going up, doesn't it mean there will be selling pressure on the way down as investors get out of the ETFs?
Methinks so! Thus if the gold and silver snowballs start rolling downhill, there's naught to stop them but a valley.
CCME dividend policy doesn't cost much. The 5-10% of profit will only amount to about 3-6 cents per qtr if they earn 60cents/qtr (the current estimate for this qtr).
Still it is up to $17 premkt. IMHO it may be a good idea to watch closely and keep one's finger on the sell button for when it turns around later today. I don't think this takes it to $20+ over the next week, but the announcement did bring some eyes to CCME and their LOW P/E.
Congratulations to Wade and his band of merry men! Value finds a way to be seen.
'peeker