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Dear Weby: Sometimes, your unrelenting optimism makes me feel like the Grinch or something.
Even if Wave dropped to a dime (I'm not making any predictions here!) I would not buy any more. 5400 shares is enough for now.
If it appears we are gaining traction in the market, I might buy a few more--but that's a ways away.
We'll wait until Spring, but we sure should see some signs before then, if anything is happening. Wave has fooled me too many times in the past for me to go counting any unhatched chickens.
Best wishes--Blue
Guvna: Completely understand. Bygones. No hard feelings. If you get a chance over the next few days, think about it and if you care to, answer, because a lot of people I think are thinking along these lines--somewhere between your position and mine.
Best wishes--Blue
Doma: I saw it the first time you posted it. I'm afraid you misunderstand my argument. I have never posited that Trusted Computing will not come to be the standard. My question is will Wave be aboard the train?
Of course you and many others think Wave not only owns the train, but is in the engineer's seat and is fueling it too.
I am a little more skeptical than you. Your many fine posts prove that perhaps we should be everywhere, because we deserve to be--but my question is, are we?
Until there is some evidence, I will regard these theories the same way I do SKS's timelines--there may be a grain of truth in there somewhere, but discerning where and which is hardly worth the effort.
Blue
CPA: I don't believe I have ever tried to predict the shareprice and won't start now. I let more qualified people tackle that one.
Obvious to both sides in this debate, is the need for more news and some sort of handle on revenues and how our product is doing in the marketplace, if it is indeed out there. I'm not completely convinced it is, in number.
Plus, I am haunted by Greg's opinion that this is a beta test or a placeholder. He of course could be wrong, but what he had to say made a lot of sense to me and he has loads of experience in this sector.
I just don't see anything that will raise our price other than some kind of news, or some leak about an impending deal with another gorilla. In the meantime, I fully expect it to erode a little farther. What is the bottom? Don't know.
Best wishes--Blue
Rachelelise: Good plan. Caves are damp and cold, however.
What you have posited is reasonable, but please read my post to Guvna. In ordinary times, I would agree with you. But this particular time, after just coming to market, is a bit different in my opinion.
Of course, revenues will tell the tale. Whatever the bleakness of present or future appears to be at the moment--solid revenues will instantly change that picture. My point is they don't just start from zero and suddenly money is cascading in from every crack and crevice. There are outward signs and that is what I'm looking at.
If wrong, of course I will admit it. Right now it seems like a pretty good way to monitor progress while we wait. Happy hibernation, but please, don't go too far. Your voice is a needed one here.
Best--Blue
2BS: That is the easiest question of all.
My first requirement for happiness with Wave Systems would be good corporate governance, leadership and accountability.
Shooting straight with the shareholders and with the financial community would not be far behind in my list.
An end to nepotism which has hurt us badly and has drained our treasury.
Lastly and perhaps most importantly, I would like to see the great idea that is Wave, deftly and effectively sold to the world and promoted properly.
My opinion is all of these above factors have been absent and their absence has contributed to where we are now--a severely weakened company, diluted beyond reason,cash poor, whose very viability is is question.
Not one of these items on the wish list is unreasonable, au contraire--each and every one of them is something that good companies require of themselves. Why should we not have the same? Why do so many here defend the indefensible? Make excuses for non-performance, broken promises and the like?
Did I answer your question?
Blue
Guvna: If I might ever so politely disagree with you--I believe I am perhaps more familiar with the big picture than yourself. I have been in since 1996 (now in my eigth year) and have done quite a bit of original DD, including several trips to Lee. I bought one of the first Haup cards, used the virtual Wave meter, etc.
Admittedly, I am not a techie, but I have a pretty good grasp of the basics.
While you are correct that the trading going on now, is and of itself, of no consequence in the grander scheme of things, it is instructive to look at for this reason: We have a disruptive technology that has been more than 10 years coming to market.
We just now arrived in the marketplace and arrived on the motherboard of Inte--with the possibility (some say this is fait accompli) of other OEM's using our technology in a way that will secure the Net for the enterprise and possibly fulfill our long held dream of Wave ubquity.
Against this background of unlimited potential, we see extremely light volume and slumping share price. To me, this indicates two things: a. lack of interest or b. a problem with the technology, or both--possibly (a) because of (b).
That is my argument stated as concisely as possible. Now, I would like to hear your counter argument, fortified with something other than the wild-eyed dreams of the Kool-Aid drinkers, of which I was once one.
Bluefang
Is the Wave share price the purple elephant in the room no one is mentioning?
Incredible that we drop another 12 cents (more than 6%) on less than 400K shares trading, we close at the lowest point of the day and everyone here feels just fine about it.
I can't wait to see how this information is going to be used by the loyals to prove Wave is succeeding in the marketplace, partnering up with Intel, and making the world safe for trusted computing.
Any more successes like this and we won't need Chap. 11. We'll go straight to the Busted Computing Module.
Bluefang
Go-KS: And you assume this means Wave and Microsoft are partners?
Blue
Horseman: I don't think he gave 50% odds that Wave would make us all rich. I think it was a 50-50% chance for Wave not to go under. There's a difference between survival and wealth.
Best--Blue
Snackman: Thanks for your counsel. Wait until next year. Didn't you say that same thing to me three years ago? Not that I would ever chide you for being repetitive.
How about this: You set the absolute date in the near future that we will have some documented progress. Give yourself some leeway here, but if we don't start to achieve, and instead we hear more delays, more of the same (insert repetitive statement here)--you will publicly admit failure?
What about by the Summer Soltice 2004? It is the longest day of the year--fitting, no?
Is this a fair offer?
Blue
bowWave: The message was addressed to Greg, but happy to have your rose-colored comments.
This is a new product which allegedly will solve many of the current problems of the enterprise...so let's sneak it into the marketplace on a limited supply basis and say nothing about it publicly. That's a great strategy for sales, right?
What has Xmas got to do with it? Or Thanksgiving, for that matter, or President's Day Weekend, or any other season? For some strange reason I thought the object of sales was to sell, no matter what the season. It's not a consumer item, so Xmas sales are not a consideration, IMO.
But I like your exasperated, patronizing tone. Glad we agree on the cocked logic of WaveWorld.
Am I correct in assuming your position is to wait patiently for more delays, more dilution, more unwarranted mgt bonuses and more obfuscation on timelines (did I say 2005--gosh I meant 2009)? I hope that works for you, because it doesn't for me. I think it is time to get real.
And what's holding up all the other OEM's? They waiting for after Santa's visit too? IBM, NSM & AMD--Are they waiting for the ornaments to come down, or for after the Ukrainian Lent to introduce their disruptive technology? Don't want to spoil WaveExpress's double-secret exclusive deal? NDA's? Timing is so important.
Bluefang
Greg S: Has anything you have seen since the question was originally asked a couple of week ago changed your mind that the Intel mobo is a beta test, or a place holder?
The loyal and royal Wavoids insist this board is in assembly line production, yet it can only be purchased it seems--on e-Bay, or allegedly in 10 packs and it seems to be "sold out" in most places.
Based on your experience, does this seem to square with the facts as you know them?
Any elaboration you can give would be helpful, since the silence has been deafening. All of us watch and wait with an ear cocked to indicate that this time we have at last been given accurate info about deployment.
I raise this issue simply because I am suspicious of the "stealth" which surrounds this new product offered for sale.
It seems to me if such a product were offered for sale, stealth would be the last thing either the seller or the manufacturer would want. Especially, if this were the first Wave (pun intended) of a tsunami to come of TPM's. Somehow, the logic seems cocked, but here in WaveWorld, one must expect that down is up, and inside is outside.
Any light you can shed would be greatly appreciated. But before you respond, best put on the Kevlar, hardened goggles and the helmet.
Best wishes, Bluefang
Doma: Thanks much for the enlightenment. It is helpful.
Blue
Perhaps the politically correct crowd misunderstood the attempts at humor. I saw people making fun of the fact that WaveExpress had made a deal with a tiny minority of potential users, not that they were Ukrainian or anything else.
On the surface, one can criticize the fact we don't seem to be able to sell WaveExpress here at home, but we can sell it abroad. The idea invites ridicule--yet there is something intriguing about collecting many small niche players into the Wave fold.
Often new technology is adopted by fringe players (gamers, etc.) and then by the masses.
When I first saw the PR, I laughed--until I thought about it.
Let's don't be so quick to dismiss anything with revenue potential.
This may be another trip down a laughable blind alley--we've all seen that before. But personally, I would want to know a lot more before I took aim and shot this horse down. If this collecting of many niche players is successful, the synergy with Wave's TPM could be significant.
IMO, way too early to judge the wisdom of this move.
Old Ukranian proverb: The gathering of a million rubles, begins with a single kopeck.
And personally, I can't wait to see Olga Petrenko live. What a voice!
Best to all--Blue
Bob: It crossed my mind--but why would you do something like that? Order more than you need, and then sell them for way less than you paid? To me it doesn't make sense, but the whole issue is more than bizarre anyway.
Good theory, as far as theories go. You still reef diving?
Best--Blue
WaveDuke: No one has to prove anything to me. But then I'm not the one running around proclaiming Wave owns this space, or June is ours, or the like.
Given the positive hype produced by Wavoids, it was simply a challenge to support some of it with facts.
Both of us know there is precious little to support positive or negative results thus far.
I think I have laid out what I know and what I think (I know you asked for no opinions) is happening and whether we are gaining traction or not. In my opinion (this was what you said you didn't want) there is no substance to substantiate either viewpoint.
That's why I turned to the share price, which granted, is no real predictor of anything, but in the long run provides some guidance about how the rest of the world views us.
I know I haven't answered your question, but then, you didn't answer mine.
Blue
Doma: Thanks for the clarification. Now this may seem a stupid question, but if one does install the Wave software, one still does not have to use it right? And at what point does one incur a fee? If one uses the Wave software to encrypt passwords and the like, is a fee due to Wave?
Sorry to be such a thick head.
Best--Blue
VH: Did you stop to wonder why, if this motherboard is the future, they are so many of them available here, and yet no one can buy them new?
Perhaps these users tried them and were not impressed? $60 for an Intel mobo?!?
Anyone care to query these sellers as to how they got them and why they are selling? Anyone care to ask the Wave question?
2BS--Fascinating article! May be a bit OT, but the implications of this show that privacy concerns can not be underestimated.
Thanks--Blue
2BS: Perhaps we differ widely on what the definition of proof is. Membership in organizations, no matter how important the organization, is not proof in my mind that we are gaining traction in the market--only that we belong to these groups.
The listing of the Intel product fails the definition of proof for different reasons. We may be on the mobo, but unless people install and use the Wave CD, we might as well not be. Again, this is not proof we are gaining traction in the market.
Of course all three links indicate our visibility is rising, but none of them proves that we are succeeding in selling our product. Hopefully visibility preceeds the actual selling.
But it was a nice try. Thanks--Blue
Rachelelise: Your technical proficiency and rational approach to all things Wave is admirable and appreciated.
However, in your previous post, you wrote: "Each and every day is visibly moving us closer to the point that the ideas will be purchased and through the miracle of persistance and "cultlike" support, Wave will actually be there to benefit. Just like the Grateful Dead -- what a long strange trip it has been."
Where is the evidence that supports your posit that each and every day is visibly moving us closer to the point that ideas will be purchased...?"
P.S. I don't require our share price to double in order to prove we are gaining traction as you misstated, but I certainly would not expect it to drop on lower volume if we had a winner.
In the complete absence of any other indicator-- sales, turn-on rate, etc.-- share price and volume is still a pretty good crude indicator of whether or not there is interest in our product. Thus far, despite the extensive DD showing the Wave-Intel board is in Japan and elsewhere, it would seem to me the same folks who are not buying our stock, are also not buying our technology. Here, we have the rare double negative helix.
I challenge each and everyone here to offer proof-- and not opinion, hope or dreams-- that Wave is gaining traction with a security product in a market starved for same. It just ain't happening, IMO.
Bluefang
Weets: This does not make any sense at all to me. IBM is stopped dead in its tracks by an inaccurate news report?
It is my recollection that Wave let the inaccuracy stand without correction until it was ferreted out by someone else.
This sounds more like rationalization and excuses for more delay, than an accurate accounting of what happened.
Have I got it wrong?
Blue
Weby: The Donner party wasn't recued until May. Less than half of them were still alive. But why they were stranded in the first place is a good analogy to Wave.
They took an alternative route, ironically called a shortcut, that no one had ever taken. It took them a lot longer, in part because of rougher terrain and in part because they had to cut a trail, at times making no more than half a mile a day.
But they still could have made it to California safely had they not chosen to rest up in the Truckee River bottoms (near what is now Reno) for a long week.
Had they left the river bottoms even a day earlier they would have made it over Donner Pass, instead of being caught in the earliest and heaviest Oct. snow on record.
Now for the modern day parallel story:
Capt. Peter Sprague packed up his belongings and set out to reach every PC in the nation. Along the way, he bought into plans for some shortcuts over what is now known as Dongle Pass.
He tried the Bios Mountains in Phoenix, but was unable to get through.
The Haup Card failed to get them out of the desert. Numerous alliances with other passing parties were not enough to help the Wave wagon train reach its destination. Differing strategies and directions were tried, all to no avail.
During the long journey, he kept telling his party we are going to reach the sunshine of the Golden State any day now, when he knew the journey would take a lot longer, and in truth they might never reach their destination.
Along the way, Capt. Peter handed over the reins to his son, Fredo. The Wave train remains in the trackless desert, running out of water and those who still believe in the son's leadership.
Will this train reach its destination? Will the locked trunk in Fredo's wagon, that supposedly holds the sacred module, be discovered to be empty? Has the Wave train turned into the gravy train for the Spragues as many suspect?
Stay tuned boys and girls for the final episode of "The Slog Finale."
Bluefang
Snackie: Yes, I do feel as a shareholder, I have been deceived by Wave mgt on multiple occasions along with all others, and in face to face meetings and telephone calls with both Spragues.
To answer your question specifically, I do not acquiesce in the deception. I think it is wrong and possibly illegal. I have fought against it, and have posted, exposing what I thought were blatant examples of it.
This is far different than Trustcousa's post which could be summed up as, "it was for a good cause, to keep us all in the stock, because otherwise, we would have sold."
But, Snackie, if I might be permitted to jump ahead, to where this seems to be leading, i.e. "Well, if you think mgt has deceived you and you think it wrong, why continue to hold the stock?"
The answer is I'm both stupid and stubborn.
The happiest of holidays to you and your family--your loyal old pal--Bluefang
Wildman: Look for Wave to be in Hanover, Germany March 18-24 AND to misspell Hanover as they have the past two years (2 'n's).
Blue
Awk: Thanks for the link. It is an entertaining article, containing both pro and con that enables one to get a sense of the whole.
Best--Blue
Trustcousa: It sounds as if you support deception, as long as it is in a good cause.
The problem with this doctrine is:
(a) it is addictive to the deceivers, because they then become tempted to cover all mistakes with more deceit
(b)how do the deceived know when the deception has ended?
(c)credibility is like a mirror--easily shattered, tough to put back together
(d)in the present case, it is patently illegal to knowingly deceive shareholders
(e) anyone who would acquiesce in being deceived on an investment should probably be parted from their money in as rapid a fashion as expedient
Bluefang
Go-Kitesurf: Great link. I read it when it first came out, but it is even more fascinating now, as security continues to evolve.
A small suggestion: When photographing the screen, try to get the front of the lens parallel to the the screen, rather than tilting it up or down (the result is called parallax problem).
Best wishes--Blue
OT: Joe Trippi on big front page article in NY Times--salient quote: "He's always in the middle of some tumultuous, sometimes disastrous thing."
It is an interesting, well-rounded piece. Does not mention Wave.
For Wave historians, Wave cultists, Dean fanatics, Blog enthusiasts, Net heads--this is a must read.
All the best this Xmas season--hoping for a Blue Xmas--not the one Elvis sings of--Bluefang
Zen88: Zen, it is not indicator of our success, but it is absolutely an indicator of how the market values us currently.
Blue
govna88: You mirrored my thoughts exactly. I too am long, but have seen precious little to support my faith, now in its eighth year.
Those little things you mentioned, bother me too. Why, because I ask myself, why is Wave trying to portray itself as something bigger than it is? The obvious deductive answer is, because they are in reality, insignificant.
I hope that is not the case, but as the months grind by, the lack of sizzle, as you put it, is conspicuous by its absence--as in, the silence is shouting at us.
Bingoman had a great post about how long it takes for something to gain traction in this market. I have a more basic question. I wonder if in fact we ARE shipping product. If we are not shipping, we are not gaining traction or anything else, except more debt and dilution.
If 24601 is unable to get an Intel mobo, I wonder if he would report that on this board, or would he quietly sell, and just disappear?
It strikes me as odd that, for something that allegedly has been in the supply chain for more than a month, is mysteriously unavailable to any of us Wavoids trying to buy one. In my book, money talks and BS walks.
You know how I panic at the least little flutter of a feather. Well, now I'm starting to wonder if SKS's remark about fine-tuning the technology in response to customer needs, means it doesn't work for squat and it is in dire need of fixing.
I'm not saying that's the case--just wondering. We do not have any basic data or info on which to base our case, whether it be pro or con. But the longer the lack of pro goes, the more it looks like con.
I am strictly from Missouri on this stock, so please, you cheerleading, pie-in-the-sky, patience=prosperity, Wave-owns- this-space types need not reply. On the other hand if you have a good explanation, the azure, fanged one is always happy to hear it. My doubts are doubling as the days go by, with nothing but demos and partnerships with obscure companies w/o revenue potential in the foreseeable future announced. And the slow drip-drip as our share price declines on weaker and weaker volume.
We need some cash coming in, for a change. If our product is out there and selling, let's hear about it. Maybe you guys and gals are willing to wait and possibly to be strung along until May, but not this cowboy.
Bluefang
Weby: Your post has quite a bit of compassion and even some good reasoning, IMO. I might quibble about some of what you said, but what's the point?
If we start moving in the right direction, I can be as patient as you, and will be.
You are making a lot of assumptions that IMO are not quite as definite as you would have them be and there is plenty of time for slippage as you well know.
You and Barge keep harping on the intricies of the technology. If you came to me with a device you claimed was the greatest, my first question would be, "But is it selling?" You and many others make the mistake of thinking that because the technology may be terrific, it will automatically sell. Might not. Might be many reasons why it wouldn't.
I appreciate your passion for this investment and your pumped up post--but I don't think the patience of most is going to last too much longer. We have been asked to patient for years, as you stated. If it does not start happening soon, it may not happen at all. I'm not making a prediction, just stating what I believe to be the relevant facts.
We all want it to happen and many of the pieces are in place. That does not mean we will round the far corner and cross the finish line.
You mentioned the adoption of the telephone and how long that took. That was in an era where there was not much in the way of technology. We now live in the technology age, far far different. Adoption rates are pretty rapid for technology that is needed.
Let's put aside our argument until your date--February and take a look then. But if there is no movement, no sign of adoption, or sales--you will need a powerful argument to convince not only myself, but a lot of longs who have been hanging on for years. Bonnie comes to mind.
Let's keep fingers crossed.
Best--Blue
Bingoman: What a great post. You actually addressed the issue and made a very rational case. I agreed with everything you said, except the last two lines about it taking 6 mos to a year for word to spread among early adopters.
It seems to me the issue of security is so critical at this particular point, that word of a good device/technology would spread a little quicker than that. But that is a minor quibble.
Otherwise, a tremendous post, articulate and very well-reasoned.
Bravo Bingoman.
Best wishes--Bluefang
Doma: Intel may put it on the motherboard. But is anyone buying and better yet, is anyone not using the Wave CD for a coaster? That is the issue.
I suspect if we had any sales at all, or any turn-ons worth mentioning, that info would have leaked out by now.
Glad to be the source of such hilarity in the Doma household. I thought that kind of fall-down laughter was only evoked by finger puppetry. If we slide to $1.75, will you still be smiling?
Will that frown be upside down at $1.50? (There are not predictions, mind you, jut hypotheticals).
Ho ho ho--Blue
Go-Kitesurf: i-Tunes has revenues and is making money, so don't scoff too loudly. Plus, it was a hit from the get-go--didn't take 10 years plus to deploy.
No, i-Tunes is hardly the same as banking and financial houses, where their needs are far greater than protecting a song-writer's 99-cent rights. So, if Wave answers the need for the banking sector, let's say, is there some reason you can name it is not selling?
We have had demo's and beta testing with the banking sector for years. The only thing we have not had, is buying and adoption. Why is that?
Blue
BowWave: I liked it better when we both ignored the other. Once again you turn to the personal attack, rather than answer the questions, or to address the issues. That has nothing to do with writing ability. It is called evasion and misdirection.
The more times you try to discredit those who are raising very serious questions, the more you are seen as an evasionist. Which brings up the next question: Why not just answer the questions? Why expend so much energy dodging and hurling personal abuse?
The conclusion might be obvious to objective people, but probably lost on those who think "Wave owns this space." If June was ours two years ago, why is our share price below $2 and dropping?
Even if you don't subscribe to Larry Dudash's "Yellow Line" theory, the implications of dropping share price are pretty obvious to me. The buying public does not have a lot of confidence in the company that is going to make the world safe for trusted computing.
If you want to talk issues, fine. If you want to trade insults and personal attacks, I'm done with you.
Bluefang
Weby: Weren't we promised ubiquity in 1998? And in virtually every year that followed? 2006 is far enough in the distance, the gravy train can ridden for awhile (not by us, of course), before the schedule is adjusted outward again.
You write: "They are not flying off the shelves because Intel, HP, etc. are not ready to have them fly off the shelves quite yet."
Is this not contradictory to what we have been told? It seems so to me.
You write further: "...I'm also wondering if in your education you ever took the time to carefully examine models of technology adoption."
In fact, dear Weby, I have. Take the i-Pod for example. Almost as soon as it came out, there was a buzz and a scramble to get one.
Take CD's replacing vinyl. Almost as soon as the technology came out, vinyl was declared dead.
DVD's--the same. The buzz and scramble to get these new products all were nearly immediate after introduction. Yes, these are consumer products and Wave is not--that I understand.
However, in the business model--the lack of security, the hacks, the identity thefts, the stealing of customer info, etc. have all created a demand that Wave can/could satisfy with their product. Allegedly, the product went on sale sometime in Nov. Have you seen any signs of a buzz, let alone a scramble to buy?
Today for instance, share price is dropping on weak volume, again. Does that sound like a company who has just come out with a highly anticipated product to meet an overwhelming demand in the market? Weby, this is the part I can't get past.
It may seem redundant to you, but it has been lying on the table--a big, fat unanswered question. I have heard excuses, I have been called a basher, I am on ignore, I am repetitive, but no one has answered the question. Why are we dropping in value as a company if we finally have the right product, at the right time with the right partners?
Weby, if you and/or the other loyal longs can answer that simple question satisfactorily--I will gladly shut up and stop posting until things become clearer. I will even allow you to say when I can come back and post.
It is a very simple question. Try something different. Try addressing it, because this is what is on the minds of investors and everyone else, other than the cheerleading set.
Best of wishes--Blue
Eamonn--You are correct, sir. I actually bought a Haup card also. I installed it, but found the fare available useless. I used it maybe two or three times and then abandoned it.
I knew at the time it was a kind of beta test and I knew no marketer in the right minds would require customers to open their computer to install things.
Thanks for the correction.
Best--Blue
Barge: Besides, back when I invested, the technology was the Wavemeter. Somewhere between the Haup Card and the dongle I kind of fell asleep.
None of it was ever deployed anyway, so it didn't matter. But this Intel board--you are absolutely sure it is going out, right?
Could you attestate to that? And the wonderful Wave CD that comes with the board, you are pretty sure it is not being tossed, but instead, being installed and used? Not like the Haup card, is it?
Perhaps the Rascals Comedy Club will make a comeback and people will rush out to buy the Intel board. Honey, is that a lump in your breast? No, dear, that's my Trusted Computing Nodule.
Give Carly my best when she comes by to give your head a good night pat. She knows what a good boy you are.
Bluefang