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My worst investment in last 4 years.
Out of all RVNC.
Worth $200 on 1k shares :)
Unlikely as these buyers knew very well what & why they bought into offering. Quality of buyers do matter tho. 13g/f should tell that story.
In between the offerings stocks like RVNC with long tail do bleed.
My take is company’s strategic moves should continue to be positive. Less desirable was they attempting to launch on their own and that scenario is more plausible with recent hires and hence the stock decline due to launch risks.
Dew,
Understood and you make a good point about customer satisfaction factor. This is the only reason why I am still invested in RVNC. Period.
Announcements themselves are not illegal. It is gross stupidity of momo traders who gave the co the break. Well done, IMO
1. Taking too long to file BLA (6 mons ?)
2. No US partnership albeit stellar data. Likely they are going alone per resent hires. Begs why ?
3. Likely need more money for commercial launch
4. Long timeline before we get to see 1Q of DAXI sales
5. May be duration adv. is construed ‘negative’ by providers as less patient visit frequency which translates to lower income. Reference is Gene Therapy Tx paradigm (shrinking pt pool esp for rare genetic diseases)
6. No significant fund buys (13g filings)
What else can you pile on ?
Seems legit ?
My take is odds that data is significantly positive & exciting albeit early is now higher as they wanted to share formerly as quickly they can but process protocol botched it. Such a data release is meant for PC patients, other researchers lot more than retail smucks who are waiting to flip for a buck.
Great note from Phantom Lord. May Lord bless him for following up :)
Also PC trials run by Bayer is OPEN trial meaning patients know what drug they are on : SOC or Tx arm. If they see efficacy (looks like some good news is already known), patients unfortunate as they are, will be dropping the good word <wink> first.
Anyway it’s not like we have to wait for a final showdown few months from now. I will be listening to next CC or business update keenly for any new ‘excitement’
IMO it was not in mgmnt hands as Bayer investigator team who are primarily academicians submitted the paper. They were hoping to talk to the data at the conference itself rather add to the paper as it’s TIP.
ASCO simply said, you cannot undercut and have to wait.
No biggie
My bet is in singles as Botox competition is last thing street or for that matter investors care about at this point.
Disclaimer: With this sentiment, I think bottom is in lol
Agree. Probably he meant ‘higher response rates’
Per company’s PR, “The results of this trial are exceptional since they demonstrate that RT002 has consistently and predictably produced long duration and high response rates and was well tolerated over successive treatments,”
Thanks. My bad but just that this was brought up again today in my conversation, couldn’t help asking again. So being complimentary, makes sense as otherwise AGN would not be promoting product(s) that will cannibalize their very valuable Botox franchise.
Dew, few friends mine are of the view that products that are based on hyaluronic acid (injectable gel) (juvederm for example ) might make the botox irrelevant? I know they are for distinct cosmetic uses but heard younger generation still are preferring Juvederm.
Any thoughts ? T.I.A
Also in best-in-class company for proving markets are truly irrational let alone being efficient.
I may need DAXI or Botox for that matter by the time I get to cash the chips lol
RVNC - any reason why Dan, the ‘Charlie Brown’ is participating in investors conf when they just raised at dismal $17 and BLA still needs to be filed ? Should they not be focused on the #1 priority ? Asking for someone who is bleeding with RVNC shares. T.I.A
I am hoping with Mylan not having first right of refusal on RT002 partnership in NA markets, big pharma will step in to partner; something similar in scale like ABBV did with ENTA
Revance has lot of IP protections on their toxin and good pipeline; so with expanding Botox market, big pharma looking for steady and predictable revenue growth should ink the deal asap but on RVNC terms.
Hoping Dan doesn’t have to send another excuse letter to investors if the deal is sub-par :(
It is, as often in bios PPS goes up once lack of funds as an overhang is removed especially for P3 assets companies.
Dan blamed the wider market for pitiful secondary pricing while big pharma is paying hand over fist on buyouts with huge premium.
Dan has B in my grade card.
Do you think the turnaround will continue ? Sounds way oversold. Feb 26 earnings could be inflection point for upside again
Ever consider impact of FDA label for 6 mons duration ? A big + if you ask me
Currently EV of RVNC is lower than EOLS. With highly differentiated product and therapeutic applications for RT002, if EOLS can do it & trading higher, RVNC can do lot better. Patience is the key.
Dew,
Just wondering could Juvderm take any market share from Botox ? I know former is a filler and can’t be used where Botox is more appropriate. Regardless, I heard younger crowds are preferring Juvderm due to 9 mos+ efficacy ? T.I.A
Heavy volume indeed. Delayed response to data though it was PK only ? The accordion pill could be a commercial success purely on patient compliance aspect
To be candid all these hyper articles do not explain the huge short interest (43% of OS). These are not retail who shorted. So begs the question what’s the reason ?
Ok thanks again (EOM)
Thanks, Dew.
So with ELAN getting the waiver for 180 days lock up period on this swap, the clock to buy at these levels starts now ?
You raise valid points. I am still scratching my head as to why street still not seeing the valuation Revance deserves. But that’s exactly the irrationality of the market :)
ENTA in low teens is a great example as many thought it can never beat Gilead in HCV market.
I am amused at your knowledge of RT002.
1. Longest duration of toxin - 6 mos median (almost twice that of Botox)
2. No human albumin unlike botox
3. Entirely sourced within US - supply chain/CMC de-risked.
4. No safety issues after one of the longest trials done - Sakura 3
5. Refrigeration not required unlike EOLS/Botox after reconstitution
And if I may add, nowhere comparable to Revance’s RT002. It’s like comparing the MacDonald menu with Michelin starred restaurant’s.
Looks like management credibility insofar as their ability to launch successfully is at stake. Unless there is a significant parter for US, doubt they can and street seems to think the same way.
Granting themselves healthy options just above $17 is not helping either. They should have participated in the offering and not sneak thru the options door.
I believe so especially once it is reconstituted into a injectables.
I am more confident on the RT002’s unsurpassed duration effect which would eventually take significant share from Botox.
EOLS model even if it’s cheap, patient convenience and satisfaction being a big factor in aesthetic Tx, it will be turn out to be a serious limitation.
It’s a boiler plate lame excuse. Moderna Therapeutics collected a record $600m on pre-clinical data and hyped up promise on new paradigm RNA based Tx ending up with $8B MC overnight.
Revance with all the stellar data, couldn’t get few $’s more. May not matter in big scheme of things but CEO is clearly incompetent.
I won’t be surprised if he sends a copy of the same email next time when they rise. Sorry, just an unhappy investor.
The clock for profitable partnership for Revance started ticking after Sakura-3 data came out in Q4’18. And you add to that JPM19 breakfast meeting followed by showcasing ‘ground breaking’ data, you have perfect storm for big pharma to take notice. No one apparently has done so far or at-least expressed interest, looks like.
Otherwise no reason for Dan to raise funds at least until BLA is filed.
I am more convinced partnership for NA market is unlikely this year. I hope to be wrong.
P.S: Reduced my holdings significantly today. I am ok to buy higher if things turn up.
Thanks. Looks all stock options and awards as part of overall compensation. If they were to buy open market or participate in offering, obviously gives lot more credibility.
Interested and would appreciate if you can share your thoughts on RVNC prospect especially in light of poor financing terms.
I am waiting to see if insiders participate in this offering. If not, why not ? T.I.A
‘Dirt cheap’ ? Bit amused. So only dumb retails seeing this EV thesis ? If this was this cheap, wonder why Dan couldn’t sell the story. Either he is uncompetitive or street doesn’t buy RT002 story. May be both.
Now street will look to see sales ramp before being convinced and that’s an Year and half away especially considering current FDA slow down. Dead money as far as I am concerned.
Very poor CEO job by Dan. Looks like pricing is indicative of RT002 viewed as another ‘botox’ wannabe that will make no difference to AGN market share.
Now he is stupid to run additional trials and will surely run out of money necessitating another rise down the road. Any Partnership in Revance’s terms is increasingly unlikely.
I agree what you stated may be what some retails could be thinking. However my 2c is how difficult the trials have been and how far they have come especially with stellar data.
RT002 market being largely affluent consumer-centric, ensuring there is a flawless and highly differentiated product is the key and co has delivered.
With regard to financing, on flip side I see this as a strength when they negotiate on a partnership deal for commercialization. Finally with additional cash, EV just got more compelling for a highly de-risked P3 product company.
My mild surprise is JPM are not one of the bookies; guess they were content with good breakfast on Revance‘ cost at JPM19 :)
P.S: Didn’t JPM increase their stake in Revance not too long ago ?
That divergence is partly due to largely gross inefficiency of the market and trigger happy retail.
Doubt any other CEO could have done a better job. Dan has been darn good in sending the message so far. Hoping he clinches ‘ground breaking’ partnership deal that’s as good as the data he has in his pocket.