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do some homework... s&p already found their shares... i would love for it to go up more cause it will fall harder...
don't get stuck living in your parents basement for the next six years because you listened to bs...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA
good luck with your position... i cover at $350 even though i think it goes to $200 range (where it traded in july) ... i was in your shoes the previous two bubbles and it took me ten years to recover... at some point in time valuation metrics matter... my bet is the s&p folks have their shares and you guys and gals are trading amongst yourselves thinking you're gonna stick it to the institutions... watch what happens dec 21 after the bell.... that's where you will see the transfer of shares...
who will be holding the bag? good luck to all and happy trading...
BTW... Tesla looks like a great company... may buy some south of $200 for a long term play...
Happy Holidays
Correct.... will take about four years or more imo
some light reading...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/01/elon-musk-warns-tesla-employees-stock-could-get-crushed-like-a-souffle-if-company-doesnt-ac.html
if the reports that VW was top in EU for last two months and Tesla did not make it in the top 20, I think top line could an issue as well...
wonder how many employees are trying to cash in on options before the potential crash?
yes and then the metrics change.... auto company price to sales typically less than 1 (more like .5 for the leaders) ... Tesla at 19 ... avg them out to 9.... 9 times which is still way overvalued and you get $360 bil MC... operating margin for major car companies about 6%... Tesla 6.3%... price to free cash flow 10 to 20, not tesla's 127 ...the more the market realizes this company at the present time looks like a car company with the inherent issues of car companies such as recalls, service etc the more the value metrics follow car companies... granted will be at premium but not 19 times the premium..
the musk ox said company overvalued in may at $140 or $135 bil MC ... what happened since May for the company to be valued at 4 times that? A price split which has no economic impact other than to let inexperienced investors think the stock is a bargain and compare it to pre-split prices?
throw in the fact all the money competitors are spending with the dealership infrastructure in place and things will get ugly... so tesla 4 times better... $160 bil MC vs current $550 bil
newbie to tesla... don't plan on staying too long w/ my short... tesla is good company in way overbought situation... imo
good resource for DD and many others out there... VW making big progress... Chinese players as well ... big part of biz will be fleets which makes sense... do you want your car renters to go 0 to 60 in 3 seconds or 7 seconds... from what I read some fleet buyers prefer slower cars... service issues as well regarding fleet buyers .... McKinsey and Deloite reports out there as well... Glad I spent the time because I was clueless as to industry changes which are huge.. competition is gearing up and lots of major capital being deployed...
https://insideevs.com/news/457575/europe-plugin-car-sales-october-2020/
hopefully quick correction within a couple months... if longer ok cause i think economy tanks soon due to covid issues... huge disconnect with market and reality imo... but that's what free money and excess liquidity with QE provide...
just watched a interview with steve eisman from over a year ago as part of my research... guy from big short fame.. he was short telsa at the time and gave his reasons... he said to sell at volume you need a local presence to service and that was one of the weak links in tesla... maybe why musk is interested...
exactly... looked at tesla when i saw all these articles about bubbles and the last two i was on the wrong side... did a dive into financials/metrics/competitive landscape... my take... great company way overvalued based on a forced marriage with no reasons to stay together once the deed is done ... this value is wedded to S&P issues and will be annulled once the bride leaves the church...
we all have the same goal... buy low ... sell high... some folks do the sell part first if they see an opportunity...
one can always buy back and get more shares cheaper if the sp gets corrected... my experience is that situations like these get corrected... maybe musk finds something to justify the value...
i think the avg retail shareholder has PTSD with respect to cc's. good time to rattle the cage and see the weak knees wobble.... i could be and usually am wrong on this endeavor...
how long does it go before jumping back to the 50 day moving avg... about four times since august and usually pretty soon after a big runup...
tick tock
i say could be much lower but what do i know...
avg vol for 20 plus days pre S&P announcement was 29 mil shares... avg vol 10 days since announcement was 58 mil shares for 29 mil per day increase or 289 mil shares extra over 10 days... S&P says one day is fine and says liquidity will be ok on dec 21... so sounds like they have the shares located ... institutions trade amongst themselves for rebalancing... (i would not be surprised if several institutions holding have deals in place because they know the value disconnect)... S&P is different with respect to value (sad but true and it's not their money - just widows and orphans money) but going forward value matters for institutions...
the question is what will be the clearing price after the S&P event... what will drive demand for shares at these prices? the "to the moon club cause this is going to $1,000" is only so big (or small) .... i would expect a big short move by hedgies once they see the time is right... yeah the shorts have been burned but they seem to be persistent... chanos, burry, einhorn usually and eventually get it right... prob hundreds of millions $ ready for a smackdown vs robinhood traders..
and they were shorting at south of $400 so $580 prob looks pretty good to them
back to $400 plus?.... potential upside from here? seems to bounce off $600
so short term $20 upside and $200 potential downside...
any hiccups like a recall or sales miss with competition gaining steam and look out below....
so who steps up to buy and at what price?
that how i see the battlefield shaping up... but i could be wrong
what is the bull case? it keeps going up so it will keep going up?
just curious as to october sales in europe...
are there any reasons for tesla not being in top twenty in oct?
id3 is on top two months in a row... new to market...
was there a shortage of tesla cars to sell?
https://insideevs.com/news/457575/europe-plugin-car-sales-october-2020/
not trying to bash the stock, just trying to figure out competitive landscape..
With respect to the S&P, the last thing the professional investment folks (as opposed to newbies buying fractional shares) want is a bloated stock with a high market cap in their portfolios which will weigh it down relative to non S&P funds of which they compete with. So what do they do? Are they going to force themselves into buying at this level because some robinhood traders .... $171 bil in market cap increase in two weeks basically from newbies buying with the impression that the S&P will be forced to buy? Professional analysts (those MBA types with decades of experience) that run the funds and S&P most likely think the stock is prob five to ten times traditional values as in we pay for what you're doing now ( most weighted by over the next twelve months) not what you're going to do in five years. My guess and I could be wrong is they are probably looking for a politically correct way to delay this move.
If I were a king I would be calling Tesla and asking what the potential impact would be on recalling 150 k vehicles over the next twelve months and what is the status given that I think (too lazy to look it up) two gov agencies (US and China) announced an investigation?
Easy way to delay inclusion. I can assure you the S&P allies don't want to touch this thing at this level. Easy way out. Wait for the company to report back and see if they project negative earnings as a result or is there a reasonable probability that they could have a recall. If so, a delay would be justified until the company can have four qtrs of positive earnings. Any guess as to what the potential cost could be to 140k cars. This has to do with the front suspension vs software which would be a low cost fix. Any experts out there?
This is not a bash on the company... just a question that could impact value.
Wall st is not your friend....
What do the parties involved want? ... not what do you want... the stakes are high and they will not make a foolish decision to appease you...
what is going to happen...
look at the chart... touches 50 day moving avg usually 5 days after peak... $440 soon s&p non event... wait and see.... sales updates with increased competition from several others and potential recall for 110k cars, this could drop to $300 in a heart beat... the fairy tale is over...
this was $60 a year ago....
yes... and mabs.... my guess is most batches at this stage would be for trials etc... bottom line is covid has used up capacity on industry wide basis for the short term.
this should impact all uses whether cancer research etc..
how avid is impacted remains to be seen (at least by shareholders)...
reminds me of the tech bubble.... this will be interesting to watch.... good luck to all....
some more light reading...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2020/11/04/vw-sold-75x-as-many-id3s-in-the-netherlands-in-october-as-tesla-sold-model-3s/?sh=6ca9ac4e3eb5
From the article:
"Either way, there is an inefficiency in Tesla’s share price to an extent that I have never witnessed in my long career watching stocks. No one knows anything, but Elon can send as many late-night tweets as he wants. Tesla's absurd valuation is only ever justified by feckless analysts putting out equally absurd future-year volume figures for Tesla’s car division. Those analysts should take deep breaths ,and look at the evolution of the competitive landscape in the GLOBAL market for BEVs NOW. I am sure they won’t . Trust me, though, competition in the car arena is forever, and BEVs are now (finally) no exception."
there might be $20 bucks on the upside but $200 plus or more on the downside and that could happen fast....
good luck and be safe....
not only lower sales but losing market share to VW will have bigger impact imo
all the value is in the "story" and when you get to the S&P, the story is financial results qtr to qtr, not ten years out in a rapidly changing landscape...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/29/the-only-electric-car-stock-worth-buying/
throw in potential cost of recall w/ 40k cars china and possibly 115k in US, this could get ugly fast...
i watched order flow and lots of 1 share trades... so probably lots of robinhood traders on margin that have not seen how bubbles burst... how many will get wiped out on correction remains to be seen...
it appears that folks think being added to the s&p will be a value driver... i think it will show value dislocation relative to others... shortage of shares with only 40% institutional interest and insiders selling.... don't think so.... dislocations usually get corrected eventually and sometimes quickly... wall st and hedge funds like to make money.... not much on the upside from here and lots to be made on the downside...
do some homework and ask where does one put ones money with all the choices
https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=121&f=cap_largeover&o=-marketcap
tick tock....
some more light reading from top EV market analyst...
https://twitter.com/auto_schmidt/status/1329714669788016640
watch how quickly things change when to sales turn flat or down...
s&p inclusion price $200....
some light reading for you...
https://www.schmidtmatthias.de/post/traditional-oems-crash-tesla-s-european-party
agree... guy who called last few crashes says so as well...
wait watch how quickly this will unravel...
https://www.profgalloway.com/tulips-to-tesla
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/10/28/margin-debt-and-the-market-up-1-4-in-september
this thing will melt down quicker than rudy g's hair at a press conference
yes... but at what price? $585 ... $685 .... $485 ... $385 .... $285.... $185....
we shall see....
you could be right... no question about it... my guess is institutions that manage money for index funds don't want to touch this thing at this mkt cap because it will kill their returns going forward...
let's see how smart money plays it....
institutions sold 87 mil shares during 3rd qtr and price way below $400... 400 mil shares still owned...
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/institutional-holdings
add 143 mil shares of employee stock option shares at $56 (don't known how many can be sold) but insiders have been selling...
do you really think there will be a shortage of shares to buy at these prices when institutions have been dumping and insiders with big sales?
per 424b5
https://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=14371291&RcvdDate=9/1/2020&CoName=TESLA,%20INC.&FormType=424B5&View=html
The number of shares of common stock that will be outstanding after this offering (as adjusted to give effect to the Stock Dividend) is based on 931,596,365 shares outstanding as of June 30, 2020 and excludes:
145,634,950 shares of common stock issuable upon the exercise of options outstanding at June 30, 2020 at a weighted average exercise price of $56.45 per share;
money on sidelines? big reason... cramer says this mkt is biggest bubble he's seen and he is one of the biggest bubble heads in history... he mentions tesla...
more than one...
try 450 models coming soon...
good article on ev market from McKinsey...
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/mckinsey-electric-vehicle-index-europe-cushions-a-global-plunge-in-ev-sales#
Automakers launched 143 new electric vehicles—105 BEVs and 38 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)—in 2019. They plan to introduce around 450 additional models by 2022 (Exhibit 3).
and VW seems to be taking market share...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorris/2020/10/17/watch-out-tesla-volkswagen-is-coming/?sh=55a2ede62fb3
how will the share price react when the competition is taking away market share?
https://insideevs.com/news/456798/europe-volkswagen-id3-sales-october-2020/
vw's new offering is killing it... tesla not even in top ten?
Munoz continued: “Volkswagen Group is catching up to its peers at great pace, in part due to its strong presence in Northern and Central Europe, where appetite for EVs continues to grow.”"
and VW EV has landed on US shores... note the "sold out" 2021 ID.4 1st Edition
https://www.vw.com/pre-order/?ssem=ssem_lid=43700057329417829&ds_s_kwgid=58700006355418051_467109249964_c&gclsrc=aw.ds&
maybe insiders see this and selling shares at $400... why are folks buying at $585? and 143 mil shares held by insiders at $56 avg price? why are insiders leaving so much money on the table
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/insider-activity
if elon says stock price too high in may 2020 at $700 pre split ($140 today), is $585 then way too high... what changed to justify 4 times price?
things could get ugly fast...
another bubble call...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/27/these-ev-stocks-have-run-too-far-too-fast/
another potential recall... 115,000 US cars NHTSA opens investigation...
what will be the cost?
bubble
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-carmakers-stock-market-bubble-073017390.html
this could go south of $400 in a hurry and when it gets there it is still a huge bubble... at three times sales it would be south of $100 bil market cap where others in the space trade at less than one times sales.... and the others in the space have the infrastructure such as service/sales which takes capital to develop
the bad news about being in the S&P crowd is that it's the results crowd not the hopes and dreams crowd ..... a company is valued on what it did that qtr and not what it plans to do years down the road... and a company will be compared with peers with company values adjusted by thousands of thousands money managers and hedge funds that can trade millions of shares vs a teenager buying a fractional share with robinhood..... and when a company sticks out as being out of whack with respect to valuation metrics, the market eventually whacks things into place
fasten your seatbelts...
This could add $20 bil to market cap... joking of course but I could be wrong.
New to stock... maybe it's buyers remorse but a little nervous...
Why have so many insiders been selling over last 12 months...
https://old.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/insider-trades
There appears to be a lot of shares employees own (145 mil shares) with about $56 per share option price.... they seem to be selling ... if the stock is so good why are they selling?
From the Prospectus Supplement
The number of shares of common stock that will be outstanding after this offering (as adjusted to give effect to the Stock Dividend) is based on 931,596,365 shares outstanding as of June 30, 2020 and excludes:
https://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=14371291&RcvdDate=9/1/2020&CoName=TESLA%2C%20INC.&FormType=424B5&View=html
•
145,634,950 shares of common stock issuable upon the exercise of options outstanding at June 30, 2020 at a weighted average exercise price of $56.45 per share;
Same with institutions.... net selling and buying of 87 mil shares sold as of sept...
Low level of intuitional holding this thing relative to market cap
High level of retail shareholders that bought on margin..
Granted the S&P inclusion will take up some shares but it seems there are lots of sellers that could come out of the woodwork... but once in the S&P, won't they be under closer scrutiny with value comparisons and metrics?
If this thing starts going south, will there be a rush to the exits as many retail will be forced to sell due to margin buying? Seems like previous drops are severe and very fast..
the nol's will increase in value with an increase in corporate tax rates. if biden elected rates will go up from 21% to 28% if i can recall what i read a few days ago. as to the asm, if they needed retail they would have been telling us all the wonderful things that were happening... they want retail to go away... take that into consideration...
here is mine:
Can you provide an update on the IP assets sold to Oncologie with respect to any anticipated milestone payments or potential manufacturing revenue?
Given the industry is consolidating, my guess is they want to be a consolidator vs consolidatee.... that will require capital. If they have a compelling story and ability to execute, the capital will show up. Time to be courting the IB's. All imo.
agree... cdmo demand remains strong...
Urgent Need of COVID-19 Vaccine Catalyzing Growth Rate
https://www.persistencemarketresearch.com/mediarelease/biologics-contract-manufacturing-demand.asp
good article on demand for us based cdmo's
https://www.outsourcedpharma.com/doc/u-s-the-destination-for-outsourcing-will-cdmo-capacity-hold-up-0001
on the MS webcast, Nick talked about possible expansion in phases which could happen sooner... looking at options now ..,