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Everyone, me,wife Dr, other family, were all surprised by the clear arteries.
Haven’t talked to him about V yet but have a follow up meeting where it hush might come up ??
Thanks CBB. no, never smoked
Thanks Barb. That’s what the Drs said and I think why it took awhile for diagnosis
Thanks Sharinky, JM, Rosey
A Story for the Board
Sunday I was driving back 3 hours from visiting my daughter and was having some chest and upper shoulder pains. Came home and took a nap hoping it would go away. It didn't so I asked my wife to take me to the ER worried that I was having a heart attack. I'm 55, 5' 10" and about 250 pounds and am on Crestor and Vascepa. I have high cholesterol, but my trigs are inline. My dad had a number of stents put in during his lifetime and always had cholesterol issues.
The ER did an EKG and a chest X-ray and ruled out any big issues (heart attack, aortic tear and a few other things he named). Went home happyish, but not liking not having a firm diagnosis.
Overnight had significant pains and went to see my GP late Monday morning. She gave me pain killers and referred me for a CT scan. Reasonably comfortable Monday night with the pain killers. CT scan organized for 4:30 on Tuesday. Good day Tuesday, thinking maybe just pleurisy or something like that causing pain. Did scan at 4:30. GP called at 6:30 and said the scan showed fluid on my lungs. The radiologist wasn't available to talk to her so she said she would call and talk the next day. Still feeling comfortable from pain killers until after my wife went to bed around 9 pm. That is when the pain started to ratchet up through the pain killers. Couldn't take it anymore and woke her up at 5am asking her to take me to the ER again.
ER gave me fentanyl for the pain and did tests. Another CT scan and X ray showed pneumonia while a blood test showed the release of the enzymes indicating a heart attack. The pneumonia was hard to diagnose because I didn't have a cough, fever or any other symptons. Kept comfortable through the day with Morphine because I was having severe pain that had migrated from my right side and shoulder to behind my shoulder blades on my left side in the back.
Thursday the decision was made for a cardiac catheretisation on Friday. Had this yesterday at 2:30. Was worried it would show blockages and need stenting even though on V. My wife even teased me a bit saying it wasn't working because she knows how much of a disciple I am. All in good nature, she was incredibly supportive throughout.
Had the procedure and the cardiologist told me I had "big fat clear arteries" with no blockages or plaque build up. They said my heart was healthy and no permanent damage and the enzymes were from an ischemic demand where the stress of the pain and other issues created a short term overload my heart couldn't handle resulting in the enzymes being released. I was discharged from the hospital last night with multiple drugs to address the pneumonia and am hoping to be back to 100% within a week or so.
Very glad that V hadn't let me down with my arteries. Always assumed with my lifestyle, history, weight, age that I would have some build up, but am ecstatic that I have been given an all clear from pictures inside my heart. Just waiting for the wound on ny wrist to heal and the pain in my shoulder blade to go away and life will be good again. Oh, and the stock price going to $50 wouldn't hurt either!
I think you’re right dmiller. Anytime I’ve seen a crazy exponential curve like the one TSLA now has, it hasn’t lasted. Reminds me of TLRY LAST YEAR.
I bought 1 May $900 put for $160 today. $16k was all I had the balls to risk.
I think there will be a window opening for 3 to 6 months starting with the successful ruling in the patent trial. AMRN knows the highest value for the company will be to include Europe and the US to any potential buyer. The company will keep the rights, progress the European drug application and see if an acceptable BO offer comes along.
If they don’t see anything acceptable within 3-6 months after the trial ends they’ll partner with someone to sell into Europe and develop the US themselves. I suspect the GIA might eventually give shareholders the most gain but suspect a buyout at around $60 +/- $10 sometime in the 2nd or 3rd quarter.
It seems that management is gift wrapping the company by de-risking all potential obstacles while growing sales at a near doubling per year.
Surely someone will see a company/product with minimal risk, high sales growth 75% gross margins, $600 million in the bank (not to mention other short term assets such as inventory), and next to no debt as something worth buying.
Thanks Mellow
Thanks bfost. I’ve been on the diet before and can’t figure out what is stopping me from getting to ketosis. I’ve not had this type of problem before.
Question for the Drs. On the board
I’ve been on V for about a year. Everything is going great with it.
In January I’ve been trying to lose a few pounds so I’ve gone on a low carb diet. I’ve done it before with success. I’ve measured my progress by using keto sticks to see if I’m in ketosis and the lack of carbs is helping to burn fat.
I’ve been very disciplined but haven’t been able to get into ketosis. I’ve been exercising as well and nothing. I’m still losing a bit of weight from the lack of calories.
Could my being on V be stopping achieving ketosis? Is this how V helps diabetics?
Thanks for any insight anyone can provide.
Crikker
STS - good post explaining the differences. I believe the 1934 SEC act covers advisors and suitable standard and the 1940 SEC act RIAs and the fiduciary standard.
I've been in the business a long time and have seen both good and bad advisors operating under each of the 2 main standards. Don't think an SEC law is going to make a good advisor bad or a bad advisor good.
The one question I always ask is over the last 20 years what have been the 2 biggest financial frauds on investors by advisors? Were they under the fiduciary standard or suitability standard? I believe Bernie Madoff and Alan Stanford both operated under the fiduciary standard. Make sure your advisor is putting your interests ahead of theirs and you'll be doing yourself a big favor.
Really, you’re going to put “got it” at the end of your post. I said in my earlier post it should be illegal, and indeed I think it is, after the Blodgett case during the dot com era.
I love your DD and your energy is great, but your attitude at times can wear thin, got it?
Crikker
I hate to say this because I’m in the industry but anyone making decisions on sell side analysts reports solely need their heads examined.
When he came out with his first report saying sell AMRN and buy ACST it made me raise an eyebrow. So I investigated by looking at ACSTs financials.
If I remember correctly ACST only had enough cash to last another 3-5 months. However, pumping up the stock price would allow many warrants to be exercised at a profit for the holders (top clients of investment bank that raised money previously ) and raise some additional funds for the company allowing it to exist beyond its best before end date. still not enough cash to bring a drug to market and hard to raise funds with a sub $1 stock price and no sales.
My impression was this was a scam trying to get the most out of retail investors before the company goes belly up. Should be illegal. I thought after the Henry Blodgett investment banking/analyst scandal during the dot com bubble this stuff was made illegal.
I wonder why the listed downside scenario factors on page 2 are all things positive for the company and upside scenario factors are negative for the company? This is the opposite of every other research report I’ve ever read. I suspect Mr Gershall is a big short.
It has been selling on the old indication only for years, not the new indication.
I'm not against a buyout, I just want it to happen when we already have $3 billion+ in sales or more and a stock price at $90 or more. You see all the time now the so called unicorns are waiting much longer to do their IPOs so the early investors get a much higher percentage of the share gain and it isn't diluted by an IPO with everyone else.
In my mind we have a unicorn and the ones fortunate enough to be invested now, and indeed the ones invested before Reduce It trial results were announced in Sept 18, will make the most by GIA for the next few years, and then a company sell. Why do we want to share the wealth created by this drug with the current shareholders of a big Pharma?
In saying all of that, if I was a betting man I would bet we get purchased for between $50 - $60/share in the next 6 months. I just don't think this would be the best way for current shareholders to maximize their holdings.
JMO
Crikker
Not sure why the $1 billion excitement with BP marketing. With AMRN projecting roughly $700 million this year, we should surpass the $1 billion in 2021. That is with SP (small pharma) marketing and no Europe, rest of world, etc...
2021 would be the same stage as Ozempic 2019 for Vascepa after the Reduce It label approval..
Why are you piling on? Guy is in obvious pain over this and the impact on his life. I don’t understand why anyone would want to attack him. He’s not attacking anyone else, at least not initially.
Sorry to see you go JL. I credit you with giving me the confidence to buy far more than I should have owned at an average cost under $4
I appreciate you sharing your knowledge and wish you all the best
Ragman, the end part should have said “anyone wanting to learn more”, not directed towards you or anyone else specifically
Ragman, I agree with you. Not owning the production facilities only enhances the value of the company assuming they have stable vendors under contract and more than one so they can’t be held hostage to pricing or company specific supply issues.
There are different methods to value companies, but one like AMRN will be valued as a multiple of cash flow. Not having money ties up in expensive production facilities only increases their value. Lower overhead costs = higher cash flow. Also makes other accounting ratios such as ROE and ROCE (return on equity, return on capital employed) look better.
May want to google the “DuPont Equation” to learn more on some of these issues.
Just saw the new commercial on the ABC evening news. Can’t wait until they can talk about expanded label
I actually think the Oppenheimer report was more to try to elevate ACST than to try to hit us. ACST has a load of outstanding warrants at prices lower than current stock price. They are also down to their last $25million in cash and burned through $28 million last quarter. Keep stock price up, let warranty holders execute and sell on market. This raises cash for the company and allows a profit for the warranty holders. Only way to get enough publicity is to tie it to something big in the news currently - AMRN. I suspect the weakness in ACST stock today is all the warrants being exercised and sold, plus potentially stock options. Average investor believing analyst is unconflicted gets left holding the can. Reminds me of Henry Blodget during dot com days as Merrill Lynch analyst.
If AMRN was truly worried about ACST as a competitor they could just buy them. ACST has a market cap of around $200 million and AMRN has $600 million in bank.
Oppenheimer
According to tipranks this clown at Oppenheimer has a sub 50% success rate and averages 3.5% return for his recommendations over a 12 month period. Pretty sad when the S&P averages around 9.5% long term. Here’s the link
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/leland-gershell
Will,
I like your post but I think the CELG analogy is wrong because they already went through their hyper growth period. Most stock valuation models use growth rates as a key variable. With the near term growth rate for AMRN expected to be significantly higher than any near term CELG growth rate premium should be much higher.
JL. Can you go to the Adcom and answer those questions? I’ve read your answers to all of them over the last 7 years in very convincing ways
He has 2 rings and 4 ****. I’ll take our 6
As long as you don’t mind having a legacy as a proven cheater and a bunch of asterisks next to your records. Go Steelers
Kiwi. Bought my first 500 shares today
Thanks Kiwi
Kiwi, thanks for sharing this from the AMRN board. I think I’m going to start accumulating
Crikker
I agree, the stock markets job is to embarrass the largest number of people possible. Though most on this board are optimistic about AMRN the stock price suggests this is not the majority. Hopefully pleasant surprise with pleasant price action tomorrow. Good luck longs
70%. July 2020. $120/share. $50 cvr
I’m right now trying to construct a bull spread. Bought 10 Jan 2021 30 calls for 3.45. Am trying to get a limit order filled to write 10 Jan 2021 35s at a slightly higher price. I’m expecting once we get back to around $19 I should be able to get it filled. That will mean $0 out of pocket and $0 money at risk. If it goes to $0 pps they both expire worthless. If t goes to anything greater than $35 I make $5 per share with no money at risk. You don’t have to be an institution to do spreads, straddles or other strategies.
Since it’s a zero sum game aren’t there an equal amount of winners and losers?
Thanks for the heads up Sam. I guess I can sleep in tomorrow. I totally appreciate your work
Mutual Funds
I know some folks in the mutual fund industry and I asked them to see what their portfolio managers thought of AMRN. Of the 2 I asked one is strictly large cap and didn’t know anything because it didn’t hit their radar yet. However, the other had bought an extremely small position in November and recently sold out. The logic they gave was mostly around the current valuation.
During the conversation I was struck by how much emphasis they were putting on current finances and not really looking at near future catalysts. IMO this reinforces some points Dan made previously about big money not feeling an urgency to buy right now. I suspect we are going to be stuck under $25/share for a while (barring b/o or hype about a buyout) until the company makes progress on their plans of expanding label, international expansion, SOC inclusion and increased insurance coverage and all of these items add to increased scripts, revenues, and profits.
However, once these goals are achieved and the scripts start exploding, the run from the $20s to the $90s will be breathtaking. The investment thesis then becomes quite easy- do you believe mgmt can deliver on the above mentioned items? If so sit back, be patient and enjoy the ride. Ignore the short term noise and price movement. If not then sell your shares or maybe trade the volatility. For me, I’m a believer and sitting tight for now.
I think the reason mgmt is so quiet and conservative is all of the class action ambulance chasers out there. Anything that can be misconstrued by these bottom feeders will result in a lawsuit. Most companies look at these lawsuits as a math problem not a legal issue - I.e. it’s cheaper to settle rather than fight even if you feel there has been no wrongdoing. Unfortunately it’s our system
Very well said. Why don’t you run for office.
My first prescription cost $75 for 30 days last week