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Major retail news will make for a profitable trade from here near term.
Aries, I will review this weekend and post some comments by Monday.
Thinking that it pulls back to test the .035 (depends on volume, news and interest if it falls).
I buy in percentages. Not in for very much until I get a chance to dive in to the financials.
The potential for any news also is appealing for a trade.
I will get back with you. Probably later Sunday night as we are going away for the weekend. I will do what I can.
Technically, it would need to break thru .038 on nice volume to do well near term.
.035 may act as a possible support. If this fails, .03-.031 is another support area.
Another pullback would be an opportunity to add some shares, imo.
Either way, I think alot of money will be made with IVHG.
ot: Susie, a post in my inbox, " Thank you BMI..."
I click on it and it says Deleted. Nothing new.
Hilarious that your reply to me on the subject of Deletions got Deleted. LOL.
Aries, Thank you for the kind post. I read your posts often. They are full of quality information and class.
It will be nice to trade a company that the Executives work to the benefit of the shareholders. This is how it should be. Companies that embrace those that funded their venture attract new investors while maintaining the old.
I was excited to see the roadmap and consistent updates by management. This builds trust in an organization.
This can only help the price.
It will be nice to work with some of you in learning more about IVHG.
Thank you again, Aries.
Missy May, Brilliant posting tonight ! You get it. It will certainly be a pleasure to read your thoughts. The board will be a better place.
My bet is to get the news before the price falls much more. Historically, JF's timing is the largest (gamble) of all. LOL.
I bought shares today .037 and fully expect a nice rise in pps based on the technicals. The volume and momentum are key.
* I am a trader and do not hold any OTC's as an investment. I will probably sell the next rise in price. If the chart breaks down, I will sell.
ot: Missy May, Welcome !
The board in a nutshell:
- Year long 24 hour, 7 day per week pumpers have now become "flippers". LOL.
- This means it is the time to buy. The pumpers will soon be the chasers. LOL.
- Oh, and anyone holding shares that dare point out something about GZFX (non pump) will be immediately crucified as a basher. Just remember, they own shares too. How can you own shares and bash at the same time?
- Message boards control the price, NOT GZFX or dilution.
- GZFX license plates are selling like hot cakes across the world. LOL.
- And any pump post wants only to hype for a better price to sell. Any bash post obviously wants a better price to buy in at. LOL Pumpers are all paid by GZFX so that they can dump shares and bashers are on the NFLX payroll. LOL
Any questions?
legalegaltx, Perfect post.
This is the time to enter, imo.
WoohooGZFX, The last time I am going to say this. Debate with the SEC. It is right in the documents. Read them. No big deal as SEC documents are lengthy and confusing at times. I spend hours reading them often. They tell the story. A simple clause about Short Selling can do so much for the price.
The following should clear up what the GZFX CEO failed to do with Golden Gate Investors.
Have compiled pages of SEC documents for you. Send me your e-mail via PM and I will glady forward on to you.
Not going to clutter a GZFX board with other stocks and lengthy SEC documents. However, a paragraph below is used in many OTC Agreements. This should help you to understand how many OTC companies set up the Agreement.
Bottom line, JF allowed the the PP Short Sale wording.
GGI is allowed to short GZFX. Tell me how this can be in any way a positive? They can manipulate the price in either direction hedging the bet. In essence, making alot of money each direction too.
Many companies are aware of the known Private Placement manipulation (Google this and PIPE financing to learn more). Some companies take the ability to Short Sell away pertaining to the company doing the financing, not the public. You are correct in that the standard public verbiage is the same. This is different, we are talking about Golden Gate.
Here is a clip that many OTC companies place into the Agreement with PP companies. JF should have done the same.
* Short Sales. Neither the Buyer(s) nor any of its affiliates have an open short position in the Common Stock, and the Buyer(s) agrees that it shall not, and that it will cause its affiliates not to, engage in any short sales of or hedging transactions with respect to the Common Stock as long as any Convertible Debentures shall remain outstanding.
It is about to be go time again.
Considering Moving Averages and news any day now, an entry in the .008's is great for a trade on some big positive news, imo.
Sure it can drift towards .0083, but this news will move the price well over a penny when it hits the wire.
Good luck.
I am in for the ride.
Gold-leade-r, I do admire your enthusiasm. Wish we could bottle it to produce results in the stock price. GZFX should look at hiring you for marketing. Imagine getting a paycheck and doing what you love. You seem computer savvy, personable and full of new ideas.
Send the photo below to JF and Chip and ask about marketing for them. Instead of using all of your own money, might as well get paid for the work. At the very least, GZFX may mail you company flyers and materials so that you are not out of pocket any money. Now paying for the license plate, who knows. lol. Just an idea.
Re: WOOHOOGZFX, Pm me your e-mail address. I will gladly provide examples via e-mail. Not going to clutter the GZFX board with other stock symbols. Happy to e-mail and discuss with you off the board.
Remember, what you are reading is standard public debenture language. This portion is the same for most CD's.
What is not standard is the portion in the filings allowing the Private Placement company (Golden Gate) to Short Sell GZFX. JF made a huge mistake in allowing this portion to remain in the deal with GG. Plenty of companies take the clause out for obvious reasons. Why allow the company providing you financing to also Sell Short the same position? A conflict of interest in controlling the price.
The PP company verbiage for Shorting is much different than the standard public shorting language.
The Private Placement company now can hedge their bet in each direction. Not letting them Short Sell would have only given them one direction to make money. Now, GGI makes a fortune trading a GZFX spread.
* Plenty of articles on this type of financing on a Google search. Also try PIPE financing to see how that works. It goes into Private Placements and stock manipulation.
It places downward pressure on the price. imo.
Read the entire filing. Not standard for all companies. It is a Red Flag that GZFX allows GG to Short Sel the same stock it finances ! Also registering on the Berlin Exchange opens an entirely new set of short selling.
I can show you many examples of companies that take out the short selling by the company doing the financing.
Thank JF.
As stated for days now, I own shares of GZFX awaiting news at any time. Got in low .009's and will add in the .008's too.
I shoot straight regardless of position. But pointing out something in a filing on a message board means I want a better price, right? lol It is always amazing to realize how little "the true longs" know about GZFX and the financing arrangement. It has much to do with why we trade at this level and crash down on any advance. Thank JF for the deal.
Just answering the reason why we fall without news.
Short selling without news is a common practice if the company allows it. JF should have taken this out of the deal.
Be patient, positive news is coming shortly. :=).
The CEO's inexperience yet again hurts the common shareholder. Allowing a clause for the Private Placement company (Golden Gate) to Short Sell GZFX has been catastrophic for GZFX shareholders. And to think that John allowed this in the deal ! Many companies are intelligent enough to omit the Short Sale clause. Must be the biggest JF blunder of all. It makes a huge difference. What CEO allows his company to be Sold Short by the company doing the financing ! GG makes money in both directions manipulating the price. Plenty of Google articles on how PP companies do this when allowed to short. Not to mention Berlin can also short sell GZFX. This is what is really going on. Not to mention GG conversions go up exponentially as the price falls. Interesting, right before the SB-2 filing is complete....hmmmmmmm. Think about it.
From a GZFX filing:
As illustrated, the number of shares of common stock issuable upon conversion of the convertible debentures will increase if the market price of the stock declines, which will cause dilution to the existing stockholders.
(h) Adjustable Conversion Price Feature of Debentures May Encourage Short Sales.
The convertible debentures issued to Golden Gate Investors, Inc. are convertible into shares of Company common stock at an 18% discount to the trading price of the common stock prior to the conversion. The significant downward pressure on the price of the common stock as the selling stockholder converts and sells material amounts of common stock could encourage short sales by investors. This could place further downward pressure on the price of the common stock. The selling stockholder could sell common stock into the market in anticipation of covering the short sale by converting their securities, which could cause the further downward pressure on the stock price. In addition, not only the sale of shares issued upon conversion or exercise of debentures, warrants and options, but also the mere perception that these sales could occur, may adversely affect the market price of the common stock.
Re: If net loss is 1.5 million at 8,000 subs, how can 15,000 be break even?
Blanket statements warrant a reply. Keeping the numbers realistic will only help the price. Unrealistic numbers only set the bar for disappointment.
Please kindly show us the math...
666 subs per month average and paying alot to CC for subs, marketing, etc. Yes, some loss is for inventory, but CC rollout will move the Net Loss to higher levels than today.
How is is possible to break even at this rate? When Net Loss increases at a much higher rate than sub growth, the formula is in the wrong direction. And CC rollout has not begun. The expenses for that will incur in the next Q's, thus moving the Net Loss even higher.
Any replies must include math to back up the statements. Let's be realistic here. Blanket statements without formulas to back them up just set the bar for a stock decline.
---------------------------------------------------
Posted by: Mar-Key
In reply to: None Date:5/3/2006 2:16:09 PM
Post #of 161145
I agree with the poster who asked how come BMI fails to put little effort in focusing at times on the small amount of subs needed to break even...I figure 15K subs puts us at break even
Investwize999, thank you for the post! It is nice to see the board returning to a cordial discussion platform for GZFX.
If GZFX or GG was done selling, why did the O/S's rise yet again?
And if they had enough "cash" then the SB-2 would not have been filed for Golden Gate. GG is in the money 18% off the bat, so they will dump for cash if necessary. They do not sit around and hope for news like we all do. LOL. Another reason they convert is because they cannot own more the 9.99% at any given time.
Whether GZFX sells or GGI converts for cash, it all ends up in the same place. Dilution to the Outstanding Share count.
Plus, the majority of the conversions and selling seems to magicly come on news. This is why the rallies are hammered back down quickly.
Reality is that news must come before the webcast to keep the price from touching the .008's.
Good idea Legal !
Only 1 post in about 5 days.LOL. It is nice now that the moderators are not deleting most of my posts, regardless of content.
Xan stepping down after he admitted deleting most non pump posts on here has made the board a much better place.
Thank you for all the kind PM's and positive e-mails pertaining to the deletions.
Some people have all their money tied to GZFX. This leads to trading and acting on emotion. Please diversify.
Information can be exchanged and discussed. Those that read each uncensored post can make an informed decision. The same group does seem to attack any post that is non hype for GZFX. This only turns quality people away. We should embrace all informative dd. That is what a message board is for.
Personal attacks after each post only displays weakness and fear by the attacker. A post does not control the price.
Remember, I trade GZFX and will never "invest" in a penny stock. Read past posts for reasons why.
* Added to my position here in anticipation of some news.
Good luck.
-------------------------------------------------------
Posted by: legalegaltx
In reply to: None Date:5/2/2006 11:49:17 AM
Post #of 160556
well getting close to news IMO, so i am going to get the rest of my shares here. this is low enough and don't want to get caught without a full tank. LOL i hate when that happens.
"Only intuition can save you from the most dangerous individual of all, the articulate incompetent."
Good morning. I sold STKL for a nice quick profit. I am not confident holding it into earnings tomorrow. It probably will run again on the Ethanol factor. Ethanol will not be factored much into the earnings as this is a future concept. Good luck to those that hold into the call tomorrow. I like the company, but never hold trades into earnings.
STKL looks great into May 3rd Conference Call.
The Ethanol factor is a major benefit.
Motley Fool
Oat Fiber ... and Ethanol?
By Stephen D. Simpson, CFA
I pride myself on finding strange stories or weird situations in the investing world. I've owned a company that baked dirt, a company that contracted with witch doctors to develop new drugs, and a company whose primary attraction was huge acreage in Argentina.
Yet I still manage to find SunOpta (Nasdaq: STKL - News) strange.
SunOpta is a Canadian company that combines a fast-growing -- yet still low-margin -- food business with a big ownership stake in an industrial abrasives company, plus technology that could be highly relevant to the emerging ethanol market. See, I told you this was weird.
Fourth-quarter results were pretty good -- reported revenue grew 48%, earnings per share tripled (though from $0.01 to $0.03), and all units of the business delivered growth. Though a lot of the revenue growth came from acquisitions, and internal growth was about 18%, operating margins did improve a bit.
But food isn't really the sizzle here. Sure, there are definitely solid prospects for the company's oat fiber, soy products, and fruit businesses, and SunOpta counts companies like Hain Celestial (Nasdaq: HAIN - News) and Unilever (NYSE: UL - News) amongst its customers.
But what's likely to really fire the imagination is the company's steam explosion technology -- in particular, its potential application to the ethanol industry. See, present-day ethanol production isn't quite as efficient as it could be (or needs to be). Most of a corn or wheat plant's biomass is cellulose, and that really can't be used with current technologies.
Because of this, many companies are scrambling to develop chemical, mechanical, or biochemical methods that would allow this material to be made into ethanol. In the case of SunOpta, it is supplying its technology and equipment (which uses high heat and pressure to break down the cellulose into something more useful) to a cellulosic ethanol plant under construction in Spain, as well as a pilot technology facility in Nebraska.
So you can see the appeal -- a little company (only about $400 million in market cap) that could perhaps supply key technology to big ethanol players (or potential players) like ADM (NYSE: ADM - News), Ag Processing, and/or Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-B - News), to say nothing of the dozens of ethanol partnerships and cooperatives springing up around the country.
It's a big gamble, though. Sure, the company has a profitable and growing food business, but if the momentum crowd really gets a hold of this story, who knows what will happen. I find it a little strange that the company lists no R&D spending on its income statement, but if this company's cellulosic ethanol technology is the real deal, that could really put gas in this tank.
Unilever is a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation..
Legal, you are correct.
The OTC or penny stocks do not trade the same as the big boards. What we see on L-2 is often for MM's to lure the public into buying and selling one direction. They are not obligated to fill your order all at once. Some fail to set the parameters as a Buy All or None. If not, say you place a 1 million buy limit .0096. It may take only 5,000 shares and then you have to move the limit up and pay another commission or wait until it takes. But it you do make sure it is all or nothing, then they take the million or you move it up, but only pay 1 commission.
And most traders fail to realize that not all you see on L-2 are real buy and sell orders. MM's can trade stock between themselves. So seeing 6 orders at the bid and 1 order at the ask may only try to entice the public to buy and vice versa.
Say that the 6 buys only total 100k shares and the bid(sell) has 5 million. We cannot tell on the OTC what they actually are. People usually jump at the ask because there is 6 bids and only 1 ask. The deceit is that not all have to be actual public orders ! And it is presented to have people buy into the larger number that is selling. Make sense? MM's can see all orders coming in L-3. The MM's are in complete control of what the public can view.
Same with the 999 and 100 we see in penny L-2's. They stand out when all the rest are 50. OTC's are not regulated the same way, so they can get away with the tactics. Big board stocks post the actual orders.
* difference is that in the OTC, there DOES NOT always have to be a buyer and a seller. MM's take in and distribute shares as they wish. This opens the door to the public being played, imo.
Limit Order Display The Limit Order Display Rule (SEC Order Handling Rules) requires a market maker that receives a customer limit order priced at or better than its current quote and that does not immediately execute the order, to display the order to the entire marketplace. Alternatively, the Market Maker can choose to send the order to another Market Maker or ECN for display. There is no limit order display rule on the OTCBB.
Every Q and year, people make new excuses for GZFX and management. It will not be any different next year. Management makes all the money as long as people make excuses for them.
" Slow for retail, MM manipulation, message board manipulation, A race car is money well spent, e-golf is well spent, Superbowl ad was well spent, Dell Dude was well spent, and the best "JF not releasing anything publicly so competition will not know."
Open your eyes and look at what is happening here. And have your CPA read the Q. He-She will tell you the truth.
Marrying a stock and emotional investing is Rule # 1 of what not to do. It blinds the true facts and figures with visions of false hope and greed.
Les, Think about your math for just 1 minute. It divides all subs and assumes each of the 666 came from a CC pilot store. What are you thinking !
Those subs did not come from the stores. You know this already. Only a handful of the 666 came from the CC stores.
You are taking the total subs and dividing by the total pilot CC stores. This assumes that every sub came from CC.
Call JF and Chip on it. 1 sub per store per week. They will clearly tell you this. Do it. No need to talk about it here.
Your math cannot assume they all came from CC. CC generates very little for GZFX. It is pure cash for CC. For doing nothing, CC gets $ 30 or more per week per store. Not bad as GZFX pays all expenses, increasing their Net Loss.
Xan, so Wick is a liar? He would not appreciate that. LOL
GZFX also confirmed the number is higher than $ 30.
GZFX pays too much to CC per sub. Net Profit cannot be attained with this formula, imo.
Posted by: wickw50
In reply to: None Date:4/14/2006 10:37:55 PM
Post #of 159143
In doing what some consider DD, many on this board, in their enthusiasm, have approached sources from the position of "Hey, guess what I know and why don't you know it?", when in reality they should develop a trust with the contact. That is done by being humble, sincere and trustworthy. When the source knows they will not be called out on the public forum one can gain vast information. Here is an example....and no,...... you will never know who this individual is....
Q: How deep is the relationship between GZ and CC?
A: Highly unlikely that Phil Schoonover or any other senior executives have more than a cursory knowledge of who GamezNFlix is unless CC took an investment stake. It is possible that CC took an investment stake, but if so it would be fairly small and I find it highly unlikely. They are investing heavily in refreshing their real estate and updating some major systems. Most likely the games merchant put together the deal and had it approved by the entertainment senior merchant and that’s where it ended. Hundreds of deals like this are cut each year in many different product categories. GZFX is not nearly important enough to CC to be a strategic partner. This status is more reserved for companies like Microsoft, Apple, Sony, Samsung etc. They are likely on the lowest supplier tier within CC which means they’re just above probation.
Q: What do you think the terms are?
A: Many have speculated on the amount that CC is likely taking in each transaction. While I can’t say with first hand knowledge, it is most likely that CC is getting at least 2-3 months of each subscription. This would be consistent with most deals done like this with large retailers. Most retailers, Wal-Mart included, operate on an ~15-18% gross margin going out of the store. When it comes to service deals like this, retailers don’t have the desire or processes to deal with royalties or commissions, so I would expect CC to get 15-20% of the customer’s annual spend as margin upfront which means 2-3 months. So the $30 that is being posted is likely accurate or even on the (((low end))). If CC got any less, then they weren’t doing their job for their stockholders.
lesnshawn,
Who are you kidding? Net Loss is the key indicator.
Tell us:
if you made $ 100,000, yet spent $ 200,000 in year 1.
then made $ 200,000, yet spent $ 600,000 in year 2.
then made $ 300,000, yet spent $ 1,000,000 in year 3.
How long can you operate this way? Net loss will take a stock down. The problem is that business revenue is not even close to keeping up with the outrageous Net Loss growth.
And imagine as the money is spent for the rollout ! Net Loss will go thru the roof. Last Q was not reflecting it yet. So what was the 1,5 million Net Loss spent for? VOD, race cars, e-golf ?
- More dilution hits because of debentures and selling for cash because the business Net Loss is mounting.
- The Net Loss grows because they pay too much to CC per sub.
You are clearly taking all the subs of 666 and dividing them by CC locations. They are not all coming from Cc, so formulas are not correct.
The issue is that GZFX expects to see (maybe 1 sub per week) per store. * confirmed by GZFX and CC employees on here and with phone calls.
Posted by: N8erTots
In reply to: Dspetry who wrote msg# 158758 Date:4/27/2006 9:41:10 PM
Post #of 159120
I am a CC employee too. I will comment on those numbers. I am a pilot store and have been tracking this product since it hit our shelves. During Christmas season we sold a lot of subs: reason? We packaged them in with the xbox 360s that went out. We also packaged them into the computer packages.
Since that time GZFX announced the rollout with CC. To be honest, my store can expect to sell less than 5 subs a month given this is not Christmas season. Granted I am in a small market and I'm sure other stores sell more, but 5 is about the absolute max for our location.
I think partnering with CC is great, but I believe the only way this company will survive is if it floods the internet market with banners. This is probably the most cost effective means of advertising and most effective---seeing as the product relies on the internet. CC right now owns the electronic retail market when it comes to internet. You see more CC ads than BB--just pay attention when you surf! Gzfx needs to take its advertising to the same level and IMO it will prosper.
Don't believe me? Call any store and ask any "infield" associate how many their store sells a week, they'll tell you too.
JMO of course.
* The rollout takes time to implement.
* Now run the numbers and get back with me.
all imho and based on updated GZFX numbers given.
Please explain your statement using real numbers provided by GZFX.
Why do people think PR on a rollout will do much ?
Everyone already knows the rollout begins in May. Nothing new.
April is nearly over. What will you say next Q if they still are in 666 range per month in subs ?
Will some of you actually realize that CC is not going to account for many subs ? Or is it always, the next Q and the next Q ?
What if they lose CC ? The business is not making it folks. Read the Q report with any questions as to why.
Spending millions more than revenue can only last so long. That is why they panic and sell shares, diluting for cash.
Think about it. If GZFX feels they are undervalued, you would think they would hold off and sell less shares at a higher price for cash instead. The fact that they dumped shares below a penny should tell you something. And they tap GG for more financing.
Funny ! Correct, some people will never learn. GZFX is playing people and they still stick up for them !
The Q says they can only handle 15,ooo subs. And 25,000 is predicted for all of 2006. No price is too low, overvalued imho.
1 sub per store per week, maybe. Do the math. Only 666 added each month. Well behind the 8 ball folks. Do the math. Quit making up numbers, they are what they are. Even at 2,500 (high end) the formulas do not make it.
Poll: How much money have people lost on GZFX so far ?
Any here buy at 15 plus cents and hold all the way to under a penny ? Be honest...Today is bottom again, right ? LOL.
--------------------------------------------
The last thing we need right now is for you to bring in more subs, because we cant even ship to our current ones with any decent turnaround! But dont worry, ol JF and Chip are going to fix that. I hear they are working and spending all their (our) hard earned cash on new technology that allows them to use a subspace wormhole to actualy teleport DVDS out of the VOD screen and into your home! Right now its in the testing stages, and is actualy a Spray painted cardboard box with the words "Telaportor dayvice" writen on it. It cost 5 mill to design and added an extra 10Billion shares to the float, but I think it could really take off in 2018. LONG AND STRONG FOR 2 CENTS! HAW!
Truth is not a bash freto. Tell me what part is not true. Let's discuss. The numbers are current and very real.
The truth hurts. But with real money, you need to be smart.
Too many emotional people here. They wrapped it all into GZFX and are disappointed. Hyping for an exit to cut losses, imo.
How much have you lost so far, freto ? Be honest.
Fast forward to the next Q and the next. Excuses will also be made then.
" this is bottom, rockets warming up, how can we be so undervalued, JF cannot release info because the competition may find out, 10 billion shares is not that much, a reverse split would be good, this is a gem. Next week for news, MM manipulation ", HAHA.
Anyone who read the 10Q is exiting for good. CC cannot save this. The only cash is from GZFX selling shares to market. CC only carries them because they pay more than $ 30 per sub, free cash for CC. A rollout is already known. What news is going to help at this time ?
And as the price falls, the GG debenture schedule slams the price even further.
You deserve what you get if actually holding an OTC stock for an investment. Get a clue.
Not to mention Berlin and GG are allowed to short GZFX.
Nice job JF, smart move. LOL.
Simple, the issue is that the 1.5 million Net Loss was mainly BEFORE CC national rollout was officially known to GZFX. So the Net Loss number shall rise moving forward.
CC kept GZFX in the dark until close to the actual announcement. The 1.5 million Net Loss is for VOD, e-tour golf, race car, etc. Wait until you see what they are spending on the CC rollout on top of the 1.5 Net Loss.
Forget about me and what I am doing.
Take a look at some of the items presented for what they are.
I have been known to present some interesting Facts that are later verified. hmmmmmm.
Wick's post confirmed $ 30 and possibly higher for each CC sub.
In fact, just tonight a CC employee confirmed about 1 sub per week per store. hmmmmmm. interesting.
If we move forward REALISTICALLY, then there may not be so many disappointed people when the numbers hit.
I said roughly 800 subs per month before the Q and got blasted. It actually came in lower. LOL.
Just take the information and do the research. The numbers are not made up. They have been confirmed many times on here.
Most people are here to "hear" only what confirms their position. Problem is that the price is falling.
So think outside of the one sided box to figure out what is happening. imo.
Let me ask you this. Do you personally call JF with questions? Do you actually know the history of the CEO and President. Each time I post it, somehow it gets magically deleted. hmmmmmmm.
Do the DD on your company officers. This is nothing new, imo. History repeats.
bigjo, all my posts explaining and replying to people are immediately deleted, over 20 in a few days for no reason. So better be quick in reading this. LOL.
Deleting all posts analyzing a poor 10Q makes the moderators look guilty, imo. After all the Q is there for all to read. Do the homework and you will see why the price is falling.
Deleting posts only shows fear that truth will be revealed, imo. But many people want to see how others work formulas. What are the moderators afraid of hearing. Holding too many shares and getting emotional and bent out of shape if another opinion is stated does not help the board.
Deleting and censorship makes people look guilty. The price is falling even with all my posts being deleted. Some want to hear. A public forum is for discussion. And people ask me questions, so they deserve to choose.
Look, I agree with you. The point is that CC will take a year to rollout. But the cost per sub is alot. This does not help revenue much.
Net Loss will rise during growth but sub growth cannot keep up.
Take even the high end of 2,500 per month added. This still places them well below what is needed for 2006. And 2,500 is too much of a stretch. But run it on the high end of GZFX estimates if you must to feel better. I choose to be realistic.
So take a number much higher than 666 per month, that is okay.
Use 1 sub per week per store ( what they have now with the pilot stores at best ).
Do the numbers and tell me what you get for 2006.
It will grow 2007 and beyond IF they remain in business.
What would happen if CC decides they do not need GZFX anymore? Only fools say something is for sure.
My issue is with Net Loss climbing much higher than revenue.
Net Loss, Sub Count and Cost Per Sub tells the story.
As they take more money to grow, the share price dilutes.
Just be realistic about where revenue is coming from. Each Q, people say, oh the next will be better. Problem is Net Loss rises sharply. The cash from selling shares to market is used to remain in business.
Question: How is beginning a rollout going to help ? We already know it starts in May. It is already priced in.
The selloff now is because of the poor numbers in the Q.
Net Loss big increase and only 666 subs per month.
CC is supposed to save all this in 2006 ?
How high will the Outstanding shares be by then. And how much GG conversion.
Long term charts mean nothing because of the major dilution that has happened.
What about time value of money ?
Look at the math JF provided. *No need to delete this post.
GZXF expects 1 sub per week per store. The rollout will take time.
The math does not add up to much in 2006. Better in 2007. But time value of money comes into play.
This is why they can hope for 25,000 subs total by year end.
As of now:
8,000 subs
666*9 more months= 5,994
--------------------------
13,994 total 2006 current pace
So the rollout will help, let's add more, but how much ?
So run the numbers maxing out the range of 2,500 (not possible, imo)
2,500*9= 22,500 + 8,000 = 30,500 total best cased scenario 2006 per the GZFX provided range.
Call JF with any questions. You funded the company and should be able to ask questions.
Explain how it fell below the low end of their trading range of 1,500-2,500. Why even have a range ?
666 per month is way below and GZFX needs alot of CC subs to get back to the range.
Please explain why they even issued a range ?
Just hurts their credibility yet again.
Only flippers and management can make money here. Hoping that you people trade other stocks too. I see the same names sitting here each time I visit.
Did you actually read the Q. Take it to your CPA if necessary.
Net Loss is rising too fast. How can 666 subs month average bring in enough revenue?
Some paid sites are featuring STKL today.
STKL(nasdaq) - SunOpta Inc..
Mkt Cap: 566.71M
Float: 49.40M
Profile: SunOpta is a rapidly growing, vertically integrated company with extensive expertise in sourcing, processing, packaging and distributing natural, organic and specialty foods. The Company has three high-growth ethical business segments focused on a healthy products portfolio that promotes environmental responsibility and the health and well-being of its communities.
The largest operating group, the SunOpta Food Group, represents over 90% of annual revenues and is focused on the fast growing natural, organic and specialty foods markets. Opta Minerals Inc. (TSX: OPM – 70.6% owned by SunOpta) represents approximately 9% of annual revenues and is focused on processing and recycling abrasive and industrial minerals. The SunOpta BioProcess Group represents approximately 1% of revenue and is focused on the processing of biomass for the production of cellulosic ethanol and other bio-products.
website: http://www.sunopta.com/
The Quick - STKL has a connection to ethanol, superb fundamentals and chart shows a sustained volume pickup and breakout out of an ascending channel. Earnings coming up and we must have a position before this runs away.
Fundamentals
This company has an excellent website full of information. Make sure you visit! Here are some very helpful .pdf documents the company has provided to illustrate their amazing fundamentals.
Links:
http://www.sunopta.com/Assets/STKLQ405Final.pdf
http://www.sunopta.com/Assets/pdf/2005_AR.pdf
This company has grown steadily! Increasing revenues.. and increasing shareholder value on a consistent basis!
Technicals
Long-term
On the long-term chart we see recent heavy sustained volume.. a huge signal that STKL is about to get very dynamic and defy gravity. The buildup is occurring just underneath the all-time high. Its time to breakout!
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Short-term
On the short term-chart the heavy volume has translated into an ascending channel breakout.. which may test the top of the channel trendline soon... giving us a great entry! Clear support in place from the channel, 9ema, 20ema, magenta trendline.
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Trade Plan
STKL has Q1 earnings on Tuesday, May 2nd 2006 after the close of the market. No one can say how earnings will go but as of right now we are planning to hold over earnings. STKL has an impressive track record of consistent growth.. and has a powerful chart indicating to us that big money is trying to take a position before the release. Holding over earnings is very risky... be aware.
Support is in place below in case our timing is incorrect. We will set an exit plan after we have our position. We must have this planned because no matter how great a trade looks to you.. it is the market that is boss!
Entry: Our entry will have 2 parts. We will try to buy @ limit 9.65 in the morning. If this does not execute we will buy at the market after 12pm. The main idea.. we want to have a position.
We will buy STKL according to plan on 4/27
Lesnshawn, Sorry you lost so much money in GZFX. Best to listen this time. At least know why money has been lost. "Hoping" with incorrect formulas is not the solution. Many are here to help and console you if needed.
* the board asks that you use accurate dd and data moving forward, thank you.
JF says that not many subs came from CC at all. So that throws out your formulas. Call him with any questions on it. GZFX "hopes" for 1 per week per store. This is not even being met yet.
Best case is 25,000 subs at year end. Read the Q, do the math. This includes CC.
Even if met, they must sell alot to get the average to what they stated. Yet another example of how Chip and JF stretch the truth and disappoint. They fell nearly 50% below the low end Target of 1,500-2,500 per month.
Quit making excuses! The purpose of a range is to fall somewhere between it. If not, nobody will ever trust the numbers. And this is a main factor in why people stay away, lack of trust.
your formula is taking all the subs and saying they came from CC, not true at all. The link is to call JF and ask.
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666 subs per month / 29 stores = 23 subs per month, per store (close enough). I'm guessing most of their new subs garnered through the quarter came from CC and not online advertising. Even so, let's shave a few off of that and make it 20 subs/month/store. How many is that a week?