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Thanks for the your insight. I'm in all the categories you mention, and suspect many here are as well.
I watched my Dad take care of and my Grandmother, then visit her over 15 years in a nursing home, where she did not know who he was. When my Dad was diagnosed himself for AD in the early stage, he started Aricept. He lost his will to live, (lost my Mom five years earlier) and only survived about 6 months after diagnosis. (Yes, Quality of Life makes a big difference)
I plan to demand a2-73 for myself as soon as it's available to help with a number of issues. ADHD, Insomnia and to prevent AD.
While I hold a core investment here for the long term, I also trade options to accumulate shares and enlarge my holding. If I ever do sell shares to take some profit, (Using trailing stop limits in an upswing) it's only about 15% of total, where I hold to re-invest after a major pullback, buying back in for the next round.
We are all here for a various reasons, with different motives and investment styles. I appreciate your scientific explanations so I can understand for myself, but also to share the Anavex Story with more confidence to my family and friends. Thanks Falconer!
Let me clarify/guess the strategy you are using in Call options. Are you mainly buying in the money and then when the pps goes up, you exercise and sell the shares? That makes sense to provide liquidity, esp when the price is rising. If it's rising fast enough, you might even exercise 500 and sell 400, thus adding to your share count. Do I have that right?
Margin Calls anyone? Due to the holiday on Monday, I think it will be one more day, or Thursday, which is 5 trading days after the pps collapse.
The only source to determine probability is that of the options broker. TD lists the probability for July Call Options being "Out of the Money" are 59% for the $5 strike and 81% for the $7.50. I don't agree, but that's what the market thinks.
Thanks, margin rules are frustrating. Going from 40% to 70% margin requirement depending on so many variables..and a penny or 5 shares can flip me in or out of a call. BTW...I'm going to check the FB forum to message you. Any clue how to do that?
Agree, I see us going sideways +\- .40 cents for a few weeks with a gradual uptrend to March 31. Of course, any news prior will dramatically speed up the process. IMO
Hi Tom, you describe trading that jumps from one pattern to the next, never completing a path and switching to different elliott waves in a random fashion; is it really a "Pattern" that can be forecast?
Xena, please sticky.. Excellent post Mycroft...thanks for providing this board with such foundational DD. A good first dive into DD for any investor.
Today was crazy. I called TD to confirm I had what I needed to exercise my options. I pulled the trigger after the PPS went up and that trade flipped me into a new category and put me 3x's the trade into the negative. After freaking out I thought no, this can't be right. I called TD back, they said once I go over 50% of my base account in this one stock I have a much higher requirement. I had to sell 5 more shares than I bought to get back into grace. I learned a lot today. Edit: I got 20 free trades out of them for my trouble.
Well, at least I didn't lose today. Last year was a different story.
Yep, the shorts ran out of steam this morning and we held up well under the circumstances. I don't know how much the options action affected the trading today. I think if it were that critical to push the pps down, they would have. The more I think about it, just seems like a normal pullback based on where we are. It's called a Market.
Well, long story short. I exercised the $5 options and then sold them for a profit. Wasn't the original plan, but after several calls with TD Ameri..they have margin rules that say I simply owned too much of this. Oh Well, I knew I was living on the edge.
My pleasure. I guess for me if it goes lower I'll just buy and then see what happens with the pps at the close. That would be better than missing the opportunity to buy low and then also losing the option if it closes out of the money; then Tuesday it flies and I've missed the chance.
I just wanted to actually have an option held through expiration "In the Money" so I could experience the process..just one time! BTW, I did get half of my new trade position yesterday @$5.35; the other half will be today, one way or the other, @ or below $5.00. Can't complain.
Agreed, my concern was I thought your plan was to delay the decision to recharacterize after April which I didn't think was allowed. We are on the same page. I'm still not sure I would sell shares to pay the taxes, but you may have no other choice. We should see nice increases this year, but the large multiples will come later in the year and years beyond.
I answered this earlier. The people who sold the options for a premium need them to be "Out of the Money" to avoid giving up those shares now right before a probable continuous increase in pps from here forward.
It will be an interesting battle of the Bulls vs. Bears tomorrow. The bears took the first half today, but the second half is all that matters, just like in the Superbowl.
Agreed!
OK, at least we're on the same page. I thought I missed something when you said the decision could be "recharacterized" in October, which would really be a deal.
As you said before, a lot depends on where we are next year with the pps. I thought you were talking about paying taxes this April. I would not try to give you advice without knowing much more about your situation, in general it sounds good for next year as long as we see progress this year. GLTY
I wouldn't want to be short going into a three day weekend; then again I wouldn't short this under any circumstance. I see a better chance of shorts covering tomorrow because of the three day period. Time will tell..as always.
In reply to
Xena, can you elaborate? What do you see in the 2/7 pullback that gives you solace for the future? TIA
I think the conference was all about networking..one on one partnership meetings.
Nothing direct from the conference yet, maybe a pr tomorrow. I wish they recorded it for a webcast. I saw some other companies do that.
Although we didn't break through the resistance wall in the $6.20's, we also didn't break down much during the take down triggered at the beginning of the conference time @2:30PM EST. Steady long hands holding! Green is good, trend in tact!
here is the ref to Bill Gates. Not sure if he was there, but this tweet was listed just above the Anavex tweet, maybe a hopeful leap?https://t.co/72i7iXP0CT
I saw a tweet when looking at the Anavex tweet at the bio17 conference. It seemed like the Gates conversation came just before the 2:30 Anavex time slot. I'll post more if I can confirm.
It seems that Dr. Missling and Bill Gates may have crossed paths today. I wonder if they spent any time at the water cooler?
That story is starting to Ring True! Biogen is taking a beating today; the ability to buy or partner for a2-73 for MS alone would solve a lot of problems and makes it more likely to be sooner rather than later.